GAA - Genepharm Australasia Limited
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 327
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 09, 2004 - 11:36 am: |  
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GAA Daily
1) take a look, the stock has a breakout and is now going through its "pull back" and likely to be building up for a second upleg... however I gotta say this is just my read and it could be wrong; you are advised to do your home work and as usual, it's your decision;
2) if I got it right, this company is in the business of manufacturing "generic drug", and they have quite a few distribution right to a number of cancer drugs that are under the PBS scheme (govt subsidised drug, I think);
3) this company is a new outfit so there is no track record to speak of, what it has is "some nice looking chart formation", other than that I heard over my lunch (translated means gossip/rumour) yesterday (from a doctor friend) that quite a few doctors/medical professionals that know these drugs/biz quite well had been actively collecting this drug recently (which I think is quite true as reflected by the recent spike);
4) the rest is up to you... (I hold this stock because the story is too juicy to be passed over, further more, I have chart to show...  )
5) yeah, I like to repeat - caveat emptor.
25 October 2004, Melbourne: Generic medicines pharmaceutical company Genepharm Australasia (ASX:GAA) has submitted registration documentation with the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) to register cholesterol-reducing drug Simvastatin.
Simvastatin is the second largest Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) drug accounting for over 5.5 million prescriptions in Australia in 2004 at a cost of over $370 million. Simvastatin's branded drug Zocor comes off patent in July 2005 and Genepharm expects to market, distribute and sell Simvastatin next financial year. Unit sales of Simvastatin have grown by more than 1 million prescriptions since 2001 and are expected to continue to grow.
Simvastatin is a prescription drug that is used for many people with high cholesterol and coronary heart disease.
"Genepharm's strategy is to target all blockbuster drugs as they come off patent in Australia and New Zealand," said Mr Dennis Bastas, CEO and managing director of Genepharm.
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Genepharm Begins Registration of 5 Cancer Drugs
Secures Agreements with Australia's Leading Hospital Distributors
20 August 2004, Melbourne: Generic medicines pharmaceutical company Genepharm Australasia (ASX:GAA) has submitted for registration with the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) five important generic anti-cancer drugs which the company believes it will distribute from the next financial year. It is estimated that the cost to Australia’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) for these five drugs is $30-40 million annually.
Since listing in June 2004 these are Genepharm's first drug targets of a total of 40-50 product submissions in its first three years.
Genepharm has also signed distribution agreements with Australia's two leading hospital pharmacy distributors, Clifford Hallam and Cottman Australia. Clifford Hallam is the largest supplier of hospital pharmacy products in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania and Cottman Australia has dominant hospital supply market positions in Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
The five anti-cancer drugs being registered by Genepharm are all currently off-patent, with only one generic competitor in Australia.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 377
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 17, 2004 - 10:45 am: |
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GAA Daily
1) has anyone been keeping watch?
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HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 780
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 17, 2004 - 01:49 pm: |
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HC,
Great call.
PL
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 394
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 02:36 pm: |
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GAA Daily
1) the point? ... the longer you hold, the bigger the gain!?
2) according to the recent Chairman's report, it seems GAA is the only "pure play" generic drug maker that specialises on "big billion dollar patent expired drugs" that fight cancer etc.. don't listen to me here, go check it out yourself.
3) the strategy of selling their drugs to big hospital and supplying the government subsidy scheme looks and sounds very "clever" to me...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 409
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 29, 2004 - 11:37 am: |
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GAA Daily
1) this baby is on fire today... if you have jumped onboard on the day it first mentioned here and got in at around 84-87c, you are looking at around 50% gain in about 15 days - not bad for a blind bet!
2) ... but, for a strong performer such as this, I think it's worth considering holding on for a longer while; you don't get such "good" stock coming your way all the time...
3) oops! after composing this message, it has gone up to 1.34!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 431
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 05:59 pm: |
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1) no comment... coz have absolutely no idea how it's gonna play out except I "hate" to see that little spinning top waiting to fall on my head...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 437
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 01, 2004 - 04:20 pm: |
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GAA Daily
1) the hand giveth and the hand taketh... so it's not a long term prospect after all.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 823
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 01, 2004 - 11:05 pm: |
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HC,
I look at it differently. You got it right all along but i have to disagree with you on the last one.You turn pessimistic all of a certain because of the long black candle today. It is early days yet.I like your story and I also like the chart.If we look at candle reversal pattern it is important to take it into context with support and resistance level.It is still early days yet to give up so early. No doubt the composition of the 3 candles does indicate in the next day or two will continue to be down.However the share price is still above the MA.So it is still early days for me.I dont have GAA but don't mind owning it.
PL
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 824
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 01, 2004 - 11:10 pm: |
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HC,
This one may be a classical initial stage 2, coming back to retest the resistance/support line.Having said that it is a small cap and can be manouvered.However it does look good.My interpretation is, it is a good set up, better than one that dont retest the support line.
PL
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 441
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 09:33 am: |
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Peter,
This is how I see it:
1) someone with sizable stake and $$$ has taken the small investors for a ride and cleaned them out - see the long white candle and the red one? A return trip nets this party quite some $$$ (1.18-1.45=0.27, say a 20c profit, that will give him about $200K in 3 days)
2) What's this telling us?
a) there is a shark living in this stock and he could be an investor/stake holder or anyone - and he manipulates the market (there are only 76 million shares outstanding);
b) assuming bulk of the big stake holders are genuine "investors" and are willing to grow the company and make their money in the normal way - through proper business means; it is highly unhealthy to have someone screwing around with their share stock and make it too speculative and "uninvestable" - good stock even at start up stage show consistent and gradual increase showing investor confidence are slowly building up with each stage of business progress.
Apparently GAA is not showing us this trait. Someone within them or possibly all of them are quite a greedy bunch. That reminds me of an ideal stock we talked about not too long ago - CMQ - that Dr.Turkey CEO is one GREEDY person that has shown the world how to run down and drip dry some very big sum of good decent investor fund injected into his business.
At this stage, GAA is guilty until they can prove themselves to be innocent.
c) incidentally, you may be aware of this - it's a good idea to use MA (daily/weekly) to pick stock at the early/middle bullish stage but it is not too good an idea to apply it at the late stage - hence the understanding of what stage of the bull market we are in becomes critical especially for those of us who like to use MAs. It pays to remember that MA's are trend following (and SLOW).
Corollary, using MA's to determine when to get off after a long bullish run is a good idea if you have entered early and are willing to accept the small price of "profit loss"; but if someone were to enter a stock in a rather late stage, chances are fairly high a severe plunge might just erode his/her profit away and turns the whole trade into a disaster.
Cheers and have a good day.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 827
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 11:00 am: |
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HC,
I accept your explanation.Normally if you own a share you would have monitored it more closely than I.Notice that you pay a lot of attention on the volume, build up and distribution.You also think someone is accumulating and then distribute.Isn't that what charting is and detect these types of incidents and going along for the ride.I normally try to trade/invest in the top ASX 100 so that the market is more open, consist of many players and harder for one particular group to make a play.I also mention that the small cap could be controlled more easily than the larger caps.As it is I do not know enough about GAA but only from a charting point of view, that I thought that the retracement is still along way from the support line.I suppose it depends on one's trading strategy.
Cheers & wishing you a profitable day.
PL
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 828
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 11:10 am: |
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