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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 419
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 29, 2004 - 07:33 pm: |  
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ROC Daily
1) I hope I don't come across to be a smartarse with this hindsight view, I am just trying to emphasise a couple of points...
2) if you see a series of declining peaks (1,2,3) pay attention because by the 3rd count, everyone is seeing it and would be wondering what the hell is going on because whilst STO, OSH and ARQ and WPL are all having some good run with oil price reported to heading up to US60.00, the good news doesn't seem to have any effect on ROC!?
- logical mind must be able to see it from "the" other angle, ie, if ROC is immune to good news, then, it must be "bad" ridden, right?
3) the bad news transformed itself with a selloff as indicated by the SOLID RED CANDLE; note the volume was not that big (indicating this is an insider job?);
4) today the bad news appears in the news... and everyone starts dumping the shares as shown by the increased volume;
5) how do you deal with such calamity? as usual, a) pray; b) trembling with fear; c) swear and curse...
but seriously, I would hold it out because the news is not really that bad, also, the price is sitting right on the medium term MA and has not breached it (conclusively) yet, and thirdly, there were two intraday lows at 1.79 and 1.76, which if both are breached then I would throw in the towel but until that point, there is still hope...
Disclaimer - let me say it outfront - I don't own this stock so you should know it's a case of "talk is cheap and easy" when then is no real money involves.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 428
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 04:48 pm: |
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1) still, I'd prefer to sell it asap, say in next minor rally.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 719
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 24, 2005 - 11:38 am: |
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ROC Daily
1) there is something about ROC oil that makes me want to post a chart as an early warning... the SP has gone up about 10c today.
2) this stock is too "wide and loose" and I have this niggling suspicion that the market has not been told of everything it needs to know about ROC;
3) as a matter of related interest AWE is down 1c today.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 871
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 28, 2005 - 08:07 pm: |
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ROC Daily
1) nice chart reflects good company, ugly chart reflects bad company - in this case ROC's chart is too erratic for my liking, to make it worse, other oil/gas company like ARQ and OSH are roaring like lions - this one is hiding in the hole "meowing" like a sick kitty!
2) not surprisingly, I found this today...
Roc reports net loss for 2004
Monday February 28, 2005, 7:43 pm
Oil and gas producer Roc Oil Company has reported a net loss of $38.8 million for the 2004 calendar year.
This was a $41.8 million reversal compared to a $3 million net profit in 2003.
Sales revenue in the six months to December 31, 2004 was 38.3 million down 33 per cent on the previous period.
There was no dividend....
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 880
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 02, 2005 - 03:16 pm: |
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thought of add a little more observation...
Notice the stock price began to drop from 1.94 to 1.85 with the big red candle on the 22/2, and then followed by accelerate selling with a gap down on the 23/2 to a low of 1.70? In fact there were more selling after these days... until on the 28/2 they reported a profit loss!
I have seen this b4 in OSH, not sure if this is the "general behavioural pattern of miners"? This comes across to be either the management is lacking in integrity, or they have very poor control over their finacial/accounting info. If you were to project back to the past with the frequent gapping of the stock price - don't be too surprise if you find that they happened before some kind of bad news were announced.
This stock is a pass unless I have rock in my head. I reckon.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 884
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 02, 2005 - 05:50 pm: |
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Bad news ROC...
Roc Oil Downgraded to Reduce
Tuesday March 1, 2005, 9:59 am
UBS has cut its rating on Roc Oil (ASX: ROC.ax) to Reduce 2 from Neutral 2 following a larger than expected loss and to reflect the increased uncertainty in the company’s earnings.
ROC management reported a loss of $38.8m against the broker’s forecast of $13m, due largely to exploration write-downs.
UBS also notes the company may have to write-down reserves at its Cliff Head project, which remains a key investment risk for the company.
The broker’s EPS forecast in FY06 has been cut to 5c from 11c, while its valuation has fallen to $1.29 from $1.59.
UBS’s target price has also been reduced to $1.70 from its previous $2.00.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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