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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 457
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 03, 2004 - 11:43 am: |  
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FUN Daily
1) one of those things that I have been nagging about - watch out when you are sitting on top of a cliff because the fall can be very traumatic... is it time to consider taking some profit off the table with your other long trending and BIG gainers since yester year?
2) read some "hero" is considering entering for a trade - is it really a worthwhile biz proposition? How about waiting for a few days and let the dust settles first?
3) yes, my implicit rule, again - avoid stock after it has fallen off the cliff because to climb back up requires a lot more effort due to timing and the "hate" factor which is still arousing strong reaction amongst those who are caught.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 526
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 03, 2004 - 12:17 pm: |
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They wouldn't of got in Trouble if THEY in FUN brought out a COW,hey.
They standing peering at spider-man figurings,now.
this is one funtastic market.
sorry 4 interupting holy
carry on
d'j
(Message edited by dogalog on December 03, 2004)
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 349
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 10, 2005 - 10:10 pm: |
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Oh how I love a bit of FUN, you can be doing so many things and still be having FUN.
I mentioned FUN under PBG today and HC you sort of went....yuck I think I'll wait....Not a silly move for a conservative investor, as I can see you are.
The reason the stock hit the deck big time was because they purchased a NZ company called 'Planet Fun'. They used a combo of cash and equity for the purchase. The equity took the form of a 10 day weighting average of $2.20. This announcement came out on the 2/12/04 and what happened....you guessed it, BAM went the price.
I'll have a bit of that said a few savvie investors. I can wait till after the new financial year to clean up.....look at the chart ...higher highs...higher lows. I reckon if I was into the wider market, I'd have a bite of that apple myself.
You reckon the directors didn't buy in big too!! Yup, on the 3/3/04 the directors were buying in, like it was a school bazar. ooooo bargain!!!!!!
Ah it's all really fun
and I can't resist a pun
so I'm tempted to let this run
but I know I risk d'shun
and those who have a gun
will probly say I'm done!!!!
Cheerio
Ann
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 926
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 11, 2005 - 01:35 pm: |
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Ann,
Here is something to laugh about cause I have a dirty mind... last night I saw this:
... I got such a fright that I dare not check this thread until just now 
Anyway, coming back to FUN...
FUN Daily
1) no matter how hard I tried, I still could not find a good reason to get into this one. It took FUN about ONE YEAR from Nov 2003 to Nov 2004 to move from 2.00 to 2.80; I reckon it will take at least half the time to clear 50% of it, ie, to reach 2.40 - just a general assumption.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 355
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 11, 2005 - 01:59 pm: |
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Now that was absolutely hilarius HC....laughed, almost wet myself...lucky I do those pelvic floor exercises!!!
I wish I could post charts [technical backup at lectures]. I would put quite a different 'spin' on the overhead resistance line. I also see a double bottom happening between Jan and Feb. What would I know? You are the expert.
Cheers
Ann
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 930
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 11, 2005 - 02:15 pm: |
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Ann,
I am not expert (nor guru) - these are big hat to wear. I don't think they fit me...
Ok, let's try to see it from your angle:
1) double bottom - probably, but it is not until the stock price clears little peak made back in Jan2005; at this moment, we can say the sp is trying hard to move back up but there's still a lot of negative sentiment in this stock simply because many investors are still feeling the pain. This one needs more time, probably until the next earning report.
2) the over head resistance level, let's think this way: assuming I am a small investor and I have seen the stock slammed from 2.70 all the way to around 1.85; now that it has recovered back to say 2.10 onward - I will be hesitating to hold on to it once the "traders" or others begin to sell because I don't like the idea of being caught twice. So, this overhead resistance is quite real because back in NOV/DEC 2004 there were quite a bit of congestion at this level - if these holders are still holding this stock, this will be their thought, and I am sure many will not want to hold on.
Cheers.
ps: if the stock can clear this resistance, that's a "good thing" coining Martha Stewart's famous phrase.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 357
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 11, 2005 - 03:13 pm: |
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Hi HC this stock is going ex divie on the 15/03 so I expect it will take a fair little dive at this stage. It has a nice little yield so the scalpers will probably be out in force.
A stock that pays a nice divie, from my experience, is unlikely to be dumped too hard when it hits an old resistance level. It's the spekkies that usually get the chop big time. Still , you are the expert.
Cheers
Ann
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 44
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 11, 2005 - 08:59 pm: |
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Hi Ann & HC
I have been looking at the funny data for FUN and things look fairly good historically.
The profit margin has fallen a little and they are working on small margins, around the 5% now.
Small margins could be a problem if sales slow down and also if margins fall further.
MRL's last data showed a 1.6% profit margin and the slide in share price started after the profit margin fell from above 5% to 3% etc due to competition i suspect.
Cashflow (fun) has fallen from last report but still quite good and Aspect has broker recommendations of 3 strong buy ,1 moderate buy and 2 hold.
I believe fun source their product from overseas so the high ozzie dollar should help with product cost.
They are diversified across different ranges of product for kids so i guess it comes down to cost control and if sales are maintained.
Fun needs to increase the eps per share faster than the increase in equity placed with them before the share price will take off again.(my guess) 
Perhaps the latest acquisition and increased ozzie dollar will provide the profits.
Watching closely. but i read somewhere that gaps have a habit of settling at double the gap down which would be around $1.70. 
mm
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 931
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 12, 2005 - 07:10 am: |
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Hi Mark and Ann,
I like TA+FA but at the same time I am very sceptical or rather I am vey careful with FA especially when come to company released data coz if you are not careful, you will catch their "spin" rather than the info. On top of that my FA skill still has a long way to go...
Anyway, here is my own guideline on when to use FA - never apply FA when the market is reaching a top, like right now. This is because:
1) it's at the top of the market that all FA looks the best and most rosy - when you are at the top of the mountain, the view is magnificent but the valley is just around the corner;
2) it's also when the big funds like to unload because of their large share holdings - there will be a lot of broker spin to help them along, which means you have to work a lot harder to separate what is opinion/projection and what's fact. And when come to the final point it's irrelevant because "they" have already set on a course of selling and won't be deterred by whatever "good data" they/you/we see - if they don't sell when they are at the top of the mountain, they will never make any big enough profit to achieve a good enough result for their year end report card (which is in June - 3 more months to go?);
3) this one should be discussed in another thread, but,... by July 1 the new Super rules will come to their own, there will be many people shopping for a home for their super assuming - let's say you are one of those funds and you want to catch a sizable of these "super funds looking for a home" - what'd you do? Do you think it makes sense for them to unload for maximum impact (gain) so they can flash their result (real profit) to their potential clients when comes July 1 or they just show them their "potential paper gain"? Which is more convincing?
4) anyway, the above are just my opinions, and as usual they could be wrong.
Coming back to FUN, which is what I intend to do in the fist place, I made a mistake by saying there was a congestion in Nov 2004 - that was wrong. It was back in 2003 as shown by the following weekly FUN chart:
FUN weekly
It's still a no go for me...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 946
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 12, 2005 - 10:34 am: |
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Ann,you're one for doing d'old time 'religion' as in walking into stores to get the feeling 'on the ground' 'at the coal face';Why not check how the little kiddies are playing?
Is Bob d'Builder still big?Are spider man figures and costumes still hot?FUN is fad,ann.They have paid their fees to the creators and now have to recoup.Is some overseas fad idea still working for them?My kid connection[the god daughter,she's got two and another due]anyway,she told me it's pirates now.FUN got any pirates?
It's fundamental,i suppose,but Xmas half is this company's earnings/profit taking time.If they've already announced they've slipped,it's unlikely Full Year july announcements are going to pull a turn around,is it?
Ann[+ u msparks]please advise FUN product range,especially what they got 'new',last time i looked FUN was trying to tout a Ninja Turtle Revival and they didn't seem to realise or remember that cartoons on telly fuelled that one originally.I know they were selling nostalgia to todays parents but ,well i 4/1 saw it as a bit of fun from a sewer?not likely.
regards,
jr
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 360
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 12, 2005 - 11:47 am: |
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Good advice jr! I thought I would do a bit of preliminary investigation about their products, you know, get to know their range and so forth, prior to facing the wilds of the Target byways and highways!!!
Well, I was getting ready to give you a smarty pants answer but I was so impressed with what I saw on their site, I thought I would give out their wubble U wubble U address and let the products and range and future plans, speak for itself. I don't think they have pirates unless Marvel have pirates.
Anyway.......www.funtastic.com.au
Hi Msparks, welcome and thanks for your very interesting contribution. Hope you will feel comfy about joining in our Back Pages conversations in the future.
Cheers
Ann
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 46
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 12, 2005 - 11:53 am: |
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HC
Some good points re superfunds and i agree they will probably cash in to make the figures look good before the freedom of choice comes into play.
FUN,GUD and many others have taken a hit already and seem to be close to fair value unless things are to deteriorate due to interest rate and slowing consumer spending which may see another dip before they start coming back.
The fundamental data is usually months out of date and that is why your chart analysis is so informative.
I think the chart is the best way to analyse what is happening here and now and fundamental data helps to determine if the company is financially viable.
We can only judge FUN from from the 12/04 data and because the bulk of their sales come in at the end of the year, Feb 06 FY report we will not know if the EPS growth (thats what the market likes and buys)has improved unless some guidance in the meantime, HY result is usually only about 10% of the FY eps.
Looking at the LOG chart, the market has determined that growth in EPS is possibly going to be a lot less than past results which were very high.
Profit margin needs to improve or an increase in sales or i think the price may range around this area or slightly lower for a while.
The LOG chart, in hindsight, shows the YR 01 to YR 03 was the time to be in this stock.
Is that a Weinstiens phase 3 area ??
Enjoy reading your analysis HC and the information on charting and RSI,TMF and MACD has been very helpful.
Agree that FUN is not a buy at this stage. ( which probably means it will shoot up again now )
EDIT- Missed your posts
Hi Ann and JR
FUN looks like it has the products to keep things ticking over.
(Message edited by MSparks on March 12, 2005)
mm
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 361
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 12, 2005 - 01:16 pm: |
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