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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 459
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 03, 2004 - 01:59 pm: |  
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*** I am a little peeved by this report. Don't ask me why coz I don't know it myself. But I am gonna take them to TASK 3 to 6 months down the road. Just wait! I am grinding my AXE now!
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Finding Value In Australian Equities
Thursday December 2, 2004, 8:57 am
Investors can only be happy with the 29% return generated by equities (ASX100 Accumulation Index) over the past 12 months, GSJB Were points out this morning, adding that looking beyond the index performance a series of highly interesting numbers pops up.
57% of all the stocks comprising the ASX100 have generated total returns in excess of 30%, 40% have generated returns in excess of 40% and 28% have even exceeded 50%!
Looking forward, the broker has tried to calculate which stocks represent the best potential moving into 2005. Stocks the broker believes stand out as being undervalued currently include Diversified Resources (BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP.ax) , Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO.ax) , General Insurance (QBE (ASX: QBE.ax) , Promina (ASX: PMN.ax) , Suncorp-Metway (ASX: SUN.ax) , Banks (Commonwealth (ASX: CBA.ax) , ANZ (ASX: ANZ.ax) , Westpac (ASX: WBC.ax) , National (ASX: NAB.ax) , St George (ASX: SGB.ax) , and Rinker (ASX: RIN.ax) , Australia Gas Light (ASX: AGL.ax) , Amcor (ASX: AMC.ax) and Foodland (ASX: FOA.ax) .
The broker points at the perpetuity growth implied in the current WMC Resources (ASX: WMR.ax) share price (+6.9% p.a.) compared with RIO (+1.3%) and BHP (+4.1%).
Also, the calculations show CBA is clearly the cheapest of the major banks while NAB and SGB are the most expensive.
GSBW remains somewhat cautious on cyclical stocks due to the "top of the cycle earnings" effect.
Healthcare stocks already seem to have a significant level of growth priced into current share prices, with CSL (ASX: CSL.ax) , Pro Medicus (ASX: PME.ax) , HealthScope (ASX: HSP.ax) , Sigma (ASX: SIG.ax) , Ramsay (ASX: RHC.ax) , Sonic (ASX: SHL.ax) and Cochlear (ASX: COH.ax) all implying compound growth rates over 10% p.a. for the next 10 years.
Other Industrial stocks that appear fully priced include Seven (ASX: SEV.ax) , Southcorp (ASX: SRP.ax) , Baycorp Advantage (ASX: BCA.ax) , UNiTAB (ASX: UTB.ax) , Burns Philp (BPC), Computershare (ASX: CPU.ax) , Aristocrat (ASX: ALL.ax) , Publishing & Broadcasting (ASX: PBL.ax) , Billabong (ASX: BBG.ax) , Brambles (ASX: BIL.ax) and Nufarm (ASX: NUF.ax) . Of these stocks Aristocrat (ASX: ALL.ax) , Brambles (ASX: BIL.ax) and Computershare (ASX: CPU.ax) have clearly identified growth options over the next 3-5 years which, if achieved, could well see the 10 year implied growth forecasts appear conservative, the broker notes, noting the media sector is well represented in this list.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 844
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 03, 2004 - 03:45 pm: |
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Hi HC,
Banks are normally ranging. Probably they can just charge fees, because scope for expansion is limited unless on acquisition trail.I used to own bank shares years ago, nowadays it is more of a defensive stock. Probably for yield.
Most of the others look the same.I really like PMN though because they have general insurance and fund management which I overlooked myself.They owned Tyndall a value fund manager.This company alone is worth a few $.
Resources companies is a protected species as after what we got out, there is less underground, like a piece of land, limited supply.So being worth more in the future is understandable.
As for the concept of fully price, listen to Jesse Livermore. Buy them long and sit tight, you will get a few surprises if they are good companies.I have burned the 200 to 300% book since last year as the fully price stock like CTX, UGL,COA and a few others I know are laughing at me now.Those they have selected as fully price will made a bloody FOOL out of them, I promised in a few months time.Just marked down the price and compare it in 6 months time.The good will continue to be good, the bad I dont want to have anything to do with it.
Have a nice week end I am off now.
PL
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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