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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 507
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 07, 2004 - 06:15 pm: |  
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Losers@DEC7-1:20pm
@5:47pm
@1:20pm
@5:47pm
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 529
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 08, 2004 - 04:40 pm: |
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I think I have made my points, these shall be the last snap shots...
@11am
@4:30pm
@4:30pm
XAO 15-min - just to show what happen when the big players exiting... you'd get a sense of "relentless" selling; and when the day closes - you'd get a sense of relief. Ask yourself - when was the last time you see/feel like this?
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HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 552
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 08, 2004 - 05:06 pm: |
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HC i just remembered[which often happens when i have a drink
anyway serious there's a big day like for INSTITUTIONS coming soon.the half year reports/sorting out all the derivs and stuff,that happens early not at end of month in DEcember.
ask peterloh about it if you get a chance.i think it might be next thursday.Anyhow i thought it MIGHT be having some,a bit of an impact now?and then i don't know,you might not be so concerned?
cheers[i won't be back tonight]
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 530
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 08, 2004 - 06:44 pm: |
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Dr,
You might be right because last December similar period, there were some correction as well... see chart.
XAO Daily
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 576
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 13, 2004 - 10:10 am: |
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Commonwealth Securities has done just that, tipping the Australian market will continue to rise in 2005, driven by solid growth in the domestic economy and a global expansion still being fuelled by China.
The broker is predicting the All Ordinaries will hit 4,175 by June 2005 and 4,300 by December next year.
The equity analyst points out that while the market P/E ratio averaged 16.4x in November, its highest level since January, it remains below the average for the decade of 17.4x.
*** from Aireview
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 608
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 16, 2004 - 11:37 am: |
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... just an observation: the market seems to be in a "churning mode" with rotational selling/buying - good for short term traders.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 611
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 06:37 am: |
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Dr,
For your perusal. I find the dates shown in the charts interesting. Also, yesterday's volume was higher than normal suggesting the current correction is "minor". (however, looking from the weekly perspective, I am still on watch)
Cheers.
XAO Daily (showing Dec'03/Dec'04)
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 613
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 07:14 am: |
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Indices about to top 4000 (really)
By Jesse Hogan
December 17, 2004
The sharemarket looks set to breach the 4000-point ceiling after threatening to do so for weeks.
Strength in resource and energy stocks, fuelled by a sharp rise in the crude oil price, yesterday triggered a 30.9-point rise in the S&P/ASX 200 Index, which closed at a record high of 3975.1. The broader All Ordinaries fared much the same, up 29.3 points to 3982.3.
ABN Amro equities strategist Gerard Minack said that although the market was "only one decent session away" from hitting 4000, he believed the rise could be fleeting.
"My sense is that the rally is probably in its last three months. I'd be surprised if we were above 4000 in 12 months' time," he said.
"The great hope most people have is that we will see a rebalancing of growth from consumers towards exports, but it looks like we're seeing a consumer slowdown before we're seeing an export revival." But Mr Minack's concerns about consumer spending did not seem to be shared by the market, with retail stocks among the better performers...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 108
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 09:56 am: |
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 67
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 12:15 pm: |
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Smallworld,
What do you mean by churning point? I can see its nearing the top of the pitchfork channel, but how do you derive a "churning point" and what does it mean?
Thanks in advance,
Ken
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 617
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 06:30 pm: |
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Ken,
This is how I see it, hope it helps. I could be wrong here.
11am snap shot
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5pm snap
MBL
WES
ASX Market Movers by value
1) look at the 11am snap shot and the 5pm snap, let's take Wesfarmer and MBL for examples:
a)MBL opened with a big gain but turned in a weak closing by the end of the day - there weren't a lot genuine buying, but its opening gain did help push the index higher;
b) WES opened with 35c gain and spent the whole day picnic in the garden and closed with 35c gain, volume had increased by about 800K at eod - look like distribution to me here.
2) if you look around there were quite a few index movers were doing this to'ing and fro'ing but somehow there weren't any real solid price gain. Of all, I think the "real" gainers are NWS, PBL, and may be a few more where if you look at the chart, they show quite a healthy gain in price with long white candle.
I am not sure if "churning" is a widely accepted term, but in my terminology it generally means the index is being "supported" or pushed higher by big players "exchanging" stocks or distributing or just "agitating" to give an impression of a very buoyant market.
3) take a look at the market movers snap I took from Commsec today, note how much $$$ has been transacted today on NWS and NWSLV - about 2 billions+, this probably constitutes about half or more of today's value (not volume) - this kinda make XAO smashing the 4000 barrier today a bit empty.
I forgot to snap yesterday's market movers, but if I remember it right it would be NWS making the money topper list followed by BHP or RIO - there were quite a bit of fund readjustment going on, I think.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 71
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 11:13 pm: |
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Thanks HC
Ken
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 109
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 18, 2004 - 12:51 am: |
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Hi Ken
HC is right. What I mean was the possibility that stocks get churned over without significant rise in price. HC has given good examples here.
What I would like to say is that the index did rise upto the top of the upper channel line. I'm not sure of the volume today but it might not be significantly large to conclude there is real distribution going on. From the intraday chart, there was some selling in the last hour.
See charts both daily and hourly
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