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     smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 93
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 12, 2004 - 01:56 pm: |  
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Referring to the posts:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=294699&post=56097#POST56097
I thought I would reply with a new thread, I will probably will be writing short paragraphs in between being a Dad and a trader.
As I have admitted publically that I dont know which way XAO is going tomorrow or the next day. I post you an intraday charts, and repeating those words gives a better view of what you were saying.
and your words:
So here is the ultimate question: HAS THE MARKET PEAKED AND IS DUE FOR A CORRECTION?
This is a forward looking question and I can tell you out front at this point that much as I believe it is but I won't commit myself to it because I don't want this to be a mental burden in my trading(I will let it guide me). At the same time, I can also tell you at least half of the people here will disagree with me and they are perfectly correct in their view - ALL OF US HAVE 50% OF GETTING THIS RIGHT.
The answer to this question is very much a CHOICE thing. Each of us will come to our own conclusion and go about handling the situation in our own way - because this is our nature - I/WE take priority over others. So the decision to hold/sell/exit has to come from the inside of us, through our heart(emotion) and mind(logic), and no amount of persuasion from outside (like my many early posts and arguments) would change that UNTIL THERE IS EVIDENCE... and FEAR!
I trade short term HC, not daytrade but swings. While I am happpy to let my super and long term holdings to stay put, I've been selling since 22/11; and I'm mostly in cash now. I have been trading since although I am not winning. What I picked didnt go up. I'm sure there's a lesson or two somewhwere. More on that later.
Anyway, XAO found support at 3889 on thursday, which is a higher low than 23/11 which is at 3850, at a further low at 3830. I'm waiting on (1) daily chart to show its hand whether its friday is a one bar countertrend. (2) whether XAO can break the pitchfork downtrend that I drew on intraday. I suspect that it will retest the 3900 support on Monday. If its broken then, it may retest 3850. Now this is all analysis. What do I do with it? I'll tell you in the next post.
Sw
(Message edited by smallworld on December 12, 2004)
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 570
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 12, 2004 - 02:54 pm: |
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SW,
I see you have been doing your bit as a good Aussie in responding to the call of our Treasurer, that this great nation of ours needs more people to maintain her on-going prosperity...
Congratulation! I believe this is one of the best things that has happened to you, probably ranks ahead of your marriage and stock trading! 
... very soon you will find out how easily your heart would melt under her charm if she's a daughter; or how you can't wait to see him growing taller and bigger than you - 'tis the best investment you are making, you will enjoy every moment of it!
Here is a good book to have for both new mum and dad if you are not already reading it: Dr. Spock's Baby and Childcare, worth every single cent!
With regard to XAO, since you have brought it up, here is my take:
1) next 2,3 day's index performance will be crucial, if you are watching I hope you find your answer;
2) I am not making any prediction or projection here;
3) I am looking forward to your next post.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 95
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 13, 2004 - 01:49 pm: |
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HC,
Thank you for your good wishes. Last time I was a new dad was more than 8 years ago. I however relish the privilege of being dad to 2 wonderful human beings especially in the weekends when they're not at school.
Ok, back to XAO.
This is a 15 min chart and it seems XAO is holding its low and forming a basing pattern of higher lows. Until the nature of the basing pattern has changed, I anticipate price will be with in the green pitchfork that's drawn. It might not be ready to roll over yet.
I saw you venturing out of the backpage and into the bull vs bear discussion. Actually it was my intention to look only at ways or tell tale sign of determining a change in trend.
While I have no positions in the index. I use them as an emotional indicator for the market. I do have other indicators which I build daily. These include arithmatic indices of different sectors, and composite macd based market indicators. but I use XAO intraday to update my trading decisions.
I am a swing trader - I trade a number of setups.
In your post http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=294699&post=55581#POST55581 you talk about having discipline and being adaptive. However, I'm never inspired by having discipline, and not having discipline have cost me in bad trades and loss in profitability.
I also know I am inspired to be a master trader. Common logic says that you cant be a master trader unless you have discipline.  Then I learnt that logic is flawed. When you are a master trader, you do what a master trader does, and you have what a master trader has, including discipline.
So all I have to do is to declare myself as a possibility of being a master trader. I just do what a master trader does - master my setup, and master myself. My setups are
(1) medianline or andrews pitchfork
(2) support and resistance
a. basing pattern
b. countertrends
c. Oops
(3) break outs.
I learn as much as I can, in screen time as well as reading and practicing. It is in Setup that I use my knowledge of XAO in assisting my buy and sell decision.
Then comes mastering myself...... courageous, ready and present to the market.
I give up in demanding having discipline. I am inspired to be courages to enter when my setup says so even though the market is scary, e.g. I entered on Friday ABS, MCG and ETR despite fear. I want to be courageous to exit when the stop calls for it without knowing if it will do a bastard reversal on me. Be courages to adapt to new market conditions even it means getting out of my comfort zone, even if my past losses haunt me. But there is a fine line between being courageous and fool hardy, isnt it. So I am the possibility of being ready, I doing thing thing a person who is ready do - organisation, structure, preparation, scanning, money management, accounting. The last thing I want to be is to be present, to be what the market is telling me, rather than my own emotions or my little voice in my head. I thank my emotions and my little voice, but I want to only follow what the market is saying.
Will post a little bit more later. And then I have start sharing results.
SW
(Message edited by smallworld on December 13, 2004)
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 582
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 13, 2004 - 02:13 pm: |
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SW,
Over the weekend I was thinking "heck! SW didn't say he is a new dad!...". Well, just because I have some friend who has become a new dad doesn't mean everyone is a new dad! Regardless, my best wishes to your family and the kids - have a very good Xmas this year.
I like what you are saying and I am trying to compare the difference in thinking, method and approach that you are adopting with mine. I believe you have something that I don't quite have, or still not there yet - self control!
Cheers and have a good day.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 98
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 13, 2004 - 11:13 pm: |
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HC,
If I have self control, its just a result or by product of what I do. I give up in demanding having any particular thing, be it self control or discipline. I have what I have, and I haven't got what I haven't got. But I discovered that I can be whatever possibility that I want to be. Being connects me to the future that I live into, and when I'm inspired, it breathes life into that future that I am living into. I devote my present in doing whatever that being would have me do. And I'll just get whatever results that I get. Because having is a result of what I did, it belongs to the past and there is no possibility there, it is just whatever it is. So I file what I have in the past, and devote myself to the future that I'm living into.
Any possibility of you coming to the christmas party http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=9272&post=56262# POST56262
I am thankful HC.
SW
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 100
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 12:36 pm: |
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XAO 15 mins Chart
Finally worked out how to post clearer charts
The Green pitchfork still holds and the low today is siting on top of yesterday's high. It does look like its going to go higher.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 595
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 12:48 pm: |
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SW,
Watch the index behaviour - open strongly but closing weak. See the step ladder? Also watch the volume. the plus side is it closes higher albeit with weak volume probably due to Xmas period/inactivity.
Cheers.
ps: re: Xmas gathering, I will give it a pass. Thanks.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 101
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 01:08 pm: |
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HC
I dont get volume with my intraday chart on indices? Anywhere I could get hold of them?
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 596
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 01:45 pm: |
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SW,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^aord&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=m200,e100,v,b&a=vm,r14,w14&c=
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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