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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 590
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 10:46 am: |  
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GUD Daily
1) when the news hits the headline, this song came to my mind..."Another one bites the dust", by Queen. (Sorry if it comes across to be "rubbin' in", 'tis not my intention.)
2) other than counting candles, I find paying attention to the "shape" of the top helps - this one actually looks like a distorted H&S... but I am talking in hindsight.
3) with regard to the comment inside the chart, there was a high volume red candle day about 5 sessions back - that was telling!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 581
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 12:06 pm: |
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I acknowledge a 'cross purpose'in this one,HC.It occurs to me that holding Nylex and GUD is an example of perhaps confused thinking.
I'm thinking of the Water Conservation Angle that brings people to think Nylex,yet still hold onto GUD.
i realise gud is diversified but i wouldn't be too surprised that nlx income stream proportion re water conserve is not similar to Gud's VICTA mowers.anyway it was just a thought.
Holy Cow,i don't want you to reply here to this but
a)Some monetary figure of trading/investment pool should be explored.I'm not asking for your specific Bank,it's just i've read a lot of discussions on this forum and fabulous opinions are strongly stated and then some time later some participant later,in another post,lets slip they buy $500 parcels or something.I am NOT implying you or other of your participants are in this category.In fact i am probably making the comment in regards to possible readers nix participants.
b) i should stop now but i'll rather make another point
HC i hope you have sufficient capital to justify your very real attempts to understand the Macro Forces swaying the Market,all this worry,if this then that or maybe the other input you are taking on,I say this sincerely if you're just playing with 100k say,well i reckon the heat ain't worth the candle or whatever the cliche is.
Anyhow HC as always you do what YOU want,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 594
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 12:42 pm: |
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Dr,
(don't know where to reply you... so, hit me if you want  )
I appreciate what you have written, thanks. Being well known for my "thickness" I am semi-guessing your points, correct me if I misfired again.
I remember making a parallel comment on GUD and NLX... on shifting their production overseas. There is a difference between the two in this case, GUD was sitting on a cliff while NLX is learning to crawl, at worst it gets a bruised and sore knee.
If (if!) the market were to correct in a big way, NLX will get hit too for sure, but I suspect it may not be that hurtful comparing with GUD for eg. But it is all relative.
With regard to readers/participants' "slippage", I think sometimes I fall into that category myself because things move fast depending on what is in the market. I think I am guilty here because at times I didn't really want to make a full disclosure on my position. (sorry everyone!)
b) your view is valid. I have in a way "painted" myself into a corner although this is not what I wanted. At the moment I still believe quite strongly in my assessment which I believe (I hope) I would be nimble enough to adapt my approach if it turns out wrong. This time I believe I have blown my mouth off by opening it too wide and lost my whole set of denture.
For all it worth - judging from the market behaviour, the index may/could be moving sideway while individual rotational rout is going on (energy, material hit hard thus far). Today is GUD, let's see which is next. This thing bounds to happen because there is no way their earning/profit real or forecast could match the hike in price.(I am talking about the high flyers here.)
By Q1 '05, all will be revealed.
Cheers and have a good day.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 5
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 14, 2004 - 04:33 pm: |
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Hi HC
GUD might be value now if no hidden news.
I expect there will be a move up tomorrow.
The announcement was not that bad and the fundamentals look OK.
Surprised it was sold off so far?
mm
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 601
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 15, 2004 - 02:37 pm: |
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Mark,
It's really hard to tell with this one. I was tempted to go in but then I stopped because I thought about my 'implicit rule' to avoid stock with a big plunge - I see it to be different from MTT because of the overall chart pattern and the price multiple (PM).
MTT has a much lower PM and there was a dividend payout tangling in front of it. The chairman was reaffirming the revenue target too if I am not wrong.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 682
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 17, 2005 - 06:26 pm: |
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GUD Daily
1) I bought some GUD today because I suspect this no GUD son of a gun may be turning the corner and become GOOD and GOODER!
2) There is a very distinct divergence between its price and the MACD histogram - I reckon the worst may be over for this one. On top of that, for price support there is an on going share buy back scheme and I am expecting a pretty decent dividend payout due sometimes in mid/end of February - so I reckon this one is pretty safe. But it's still necessary to set your stop loss just in case.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 688
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 19, 2005 - 03:04 pm: |
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Grrrrr...!!
This no GUD son of a gun is a loose cannon...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 439
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 19, 2005 - 03:33 pm: |
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Like the guys with the bling bling say,
chill dude.
As your 5 min chart in another thread shows, just about everythings been sold down for the last couple of days.
It don't necessarily mean GUDs no good, just that the tides going out.
R's (including relax)
chance
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 702
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 21, 2005 - 02:01 pm: |
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Put up your hand if you are among those who bought GUD today. Salute! Next time, tell me when I am going to do another GUD... again!
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 710
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 23, 2005 - 04:21 pm: |
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GUD Daily
1) Here is a bit of self evaluation... see the little oval? That's where I entered the trade. I was aware of the short term bearish candle signal but I was too keen to make the trade and at the same time too convinced by the steep MACD divergence - I didn't wait for the candle to settle down. Something I live to regret (for a while).
2) Here is the new rule(subject to on going review) - in future, for all short term reading(trade entry), the candle chart shall take precedence of indicators(any indicator!). The logic being the candle chart is closer to the action than indicators which, the latter, by their construct tend to baggage with some lag.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 90
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 23, 2005 - 04:45 pm: |
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HC,
I posted elsewhere this morning about my evaluation of trades and ratio of profits to losses. For trades I entered where 13 day, 13 week and 26 week ema's were all rising, I made 2.7 times as much profit as loss.
For trades where they were all heading down, the total losses were 1.4 times the profit. I have been reluctant to stop picking bottoms but the numbers speak for themselves, and I would suggest anyone else take heed too.
Just trying to be helpful
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 712
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 23, 2005 - 07:51 pm: |
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Ken,
Thanks for the info. Look like you are doing well!
With regard to these three trades, they are in a way my experimental "defensive approach" to the current market. I am still holding quite a few long/trending trades.
I am not sure what your and others' view of the current market - I am of the view that it is so close to correction that I find it really hard to put on anymore long term/trend trades. Not too long ago Colin mentioned McLaren's Report - I couldn't agree with him more. I have extracted the XAO bit for your perusal. See below:
He has coined the word "blowoff trend" which I thought is very appropriate. I have seen quite a few such patterns before, but honestly to get the exact timing is damn hard! It's harder to gauge in ASX because of hype and a relatively small and "controlled" market where the funds can exercise a large degree of influence comparatively. (this just my hunch, so it's unfounded)
Lately, I have observed it's become more frequent to see a stock jump in price the moment they are mentioned in an analyst's report, this is indicating to me that the market is highly sentiment driven and quite speculative at the moment. The more vertical the index moves and the longer time it takes, when the "blowoff" time comes it's going to cause a lot of grief...
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 772
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 12:20 pm: |
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GUD Daily
1) the long and painful rehabilitation continues...
2) remember "price multiples (PM)", HC? - broke your own rule and you will eat crow until you learn the lesson!
3) as shown by the chart, they are many still not too happy with GUD, on top of that they have no good reason to hold the stock if they bought it back in 2003. They are still making good money if they decide to bail at the current price... and why not?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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