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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 612
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 06:58 am: |  
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MBP Daily
Metabolic defends new obesity drug
By Rebecca Urban
December 17, 2004
Metabolic Pharmaceuticals will today try to reverse the damage to its share price, which has been heading south since its obesity drug trial results came out earlier this week.
Facing a barrage of questions from financial analysts about its claim that the drug worked, managing director Chris Belyea had planned to make a statement to the market late yesterday but decided it would be "more strategic" to release it this morning.
The company's shares rallied to $2.50 immediately after the trial results were released on Monday, but have since fallen 51 per cent to $1.21 on concerns that the drug was not as effective as had been claimed, despite producing an average weight loss of 2.8 kilograms in obese patients over 12 weeks.
The Age reported on Tuesday that analysts had questioned the interpretation of the data, given that some patients taking the placebo had achieved weight loss of four kilograms or more. They were also concerned by the lack of statistical evidence that the drug, and not events, had been the catalyst for the weight loss.
Dr Belyea said yesterday he was becoming increasingly concerned about misinformation in the market. He said he was particularly concerned by a research report released by stockbroker eG Capital, which he said contained lies. He was also seeking legal advice about an article that appeared in The Australian Financial Review yesterday.
Asked why he was waiting four days to clarify these issues, Dr Belyea said: "We don't normally comment on these things but it gets to a ridiculous point where the market is no longer informed. There's so much confusion out there, it has to be addressed."
Dianne Glenn, associate director of research at eG Capital, said she had produced a report that was balanced and based on the company's own data.
"The company reported weight loss in the one milligram dose group that was not significantly different to the placebo. That's their own data," she said.
Analysts have raised concerns about the inconsistency of the dose results in the phase IIa trial compared with the phase IIb trial. The first trial showed the 10 milligram and 30 milligram doses were more effective in producing weight loss, while the second trial suggested it was the one milligram dose.
Tolhurst Noall analyst Martin Ashdown said it was not surprising that the smallest dose had been found to be effective because hormones worked better in small concentrations.
"That's something that Metabolic should have clarified to the market, and they haven't," he said.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 616
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 05:51 pm: |
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MBP Daily
1) Q: will I go long now that the CEO has come out and defended the report and its interpretation? A: ask me again after the New Year. Or when CMQ sacks their turkey brand CEO.
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HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 70
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 11:08 pm: |
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HC,
Got in at 137 today and out at 150 on the close. Not game to hold over the weekend.
Ken
ps. if you look at the intraday chart it is a pretty good example of textbook elliott waves for the first couple of hours after the trading halt was lifted.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 892
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 05, 2005 - 12:27 pm: |
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MBP Daily
1) the loser's game continues...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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davkell
Member
Username: davkell
Post Number: 80
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 05, 2005 - 08:05 pm: |
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Holycow;
Can you tell me what the indicators are that you have accompanying this chart?
Thanks.
"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 899
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 05, 2005 - 10:44 pm: |
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David,
The top one is the vanilla version of MACD, the other is RSI14. For MACD I find it useful to watch the crossing of the signal lines as well as the zero line. For example, there were two crossings above the zero line indicating BIG trouble, especially the one immediately above the zero line. After that, the MACD never did manage to get back above the zero line indicating the sp is lacking support. This is similarly indicated by the RSI14 where it lives under the 50 line after dipping below showing the sp is lacking internal strength.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2339
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 02, 2006 - 04:16 pm: |
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MBP Weekly
1) hell freezes over... good to note this on a miserable drizzling Sunday to remind people of bad old time and bad old stock. Do people have enough warning to exit this stock? I think so... but how many acted on it?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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stickman
Member
Username: stickman
Post Number: 869
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 10:07 am: |
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Hi HC
Having a look at the weekly chart is that a divergence between the macd weekly and the price of mbp ????
also the macd histogram has stayed above 0 since may 05 ??
cheers
Trade to Learn, Not to Earn.
when you lose,don't lose the lesson.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2353
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 12:36 pm: |
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Stickman,
This stock has so many negatives that go against it that I think at this point, chart/TA/MACD is of not much use or relevance to how its stock price movement.
I see at this point the OHLCV is just a record of its stock transaction. After such prolonged decline from 2.00-2.50 to the current below 40c, most investors/thosewhogotcaught are either giving up hope or are feeling fatigue just by watching its stock price.
Unless there's some fundamental change like they are coming out with a new formula or new discovery, I think this stock will be lying low for a long time.
I see 40c to be a relatively strong support/resistance level - false hope if the sp stays above 40c, hopeless if it stays below it.
Sorry to be so negative on this stock if you holding.
Cheers.
ps: even for a trade, there are other better candidates around.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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stickman
Member
Username: stickman
Post Number: 870
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 12:59 pm: |
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HC
no problems
cheers
Trade to Learn, Not to Earn.
when you lose,don't lose the lesson.
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