ARP - a TTC waiting to happen?
| |
|
Last Poster |
Posts |
Pages |
Last Post |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Author |
Message |
     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 644
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 06:08 pm: |  
|
ARP Daily
1) if you like to pick short/mid term bottom and like TTC setup, here is another one - just check it out.
(For safer entry, wait for the RSI crosses the 50 line)
2) fundamentally, the company is on solid ground and with the US$ regaining its footing, I think, will help ARP quite a fair bit in alleviating their past problem - this could turn out to be a PLUS if the US$ races forward (hoping here).
3) declaration: just assume I have this stock - you are expected to treat this as a stock idea and do your homework, fair?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 411
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 01:53 pm: |
|
Done my homework,
For me, a bit of patience is still reqd
Regards chance
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 653
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 02:38 pm: |
|
Chance,
Longer term you might be right. However, here is a second attempt to "plead" my case for a shorter term trade...
ARP Daily
1) note we are talking about 9 months interval here
2) use RSI as the trigger point, if it crosses the 50 line as in arrow 2, the case for a rebound is quite strong here (as shown in arrow 1 where RSI was repeatedly tested)
3) arrow 3, 4 come across as fairly strong case of +VE divergence but then W%R is a quickie oscillator.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 412
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 03:05 pm: |
|
Forgot you are mainly short term?
I think I see what you mean.
Like, if it closes today above $3.75 Entry at open on Monday, stop around $3.65 ?
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 654
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 04:15 pm: |
|
Chance,
I would suggest not to use line chart (on close) because of the short term nature. You want to see every intraday high low here.
On shorter term trade I am still learning (trial and error with various indicators) - but I would place more emphasis on as low an entry level as possible. In this case, if I can get ARP at 3.72, I will grab it. This is based on the premise that the stock has seen its short term bottom at 3.66. (3.65 would be too close and easily shaken out. This should set our base line)
On 9/12 there was a high volumed sold off at 3.82, I guess this will be the nearest resistance ARP has to overcome. At this point our potential gain will be about 8 to 10c which probably is not much. If the stock is able to break beyond this price, I think we are on the way to higher gain.
This is just my rationale in trading this stock. In addition, I like the fundamentals of this stock which in a way provides a level of "comfort" for me. The downside to this stock is its "illiquidity" which I suspect may make this short trade into a long one! 
Anyway I will watch how it develop volume wise before deciding when to get out. Right now it has to get off the ground and start moving up...
Attached is the CCI chart as someone has mentioned in this forum. I have tried it before without much success (and conviction), this is the 3rd time I am having a go at it. I could be lucky!
ARP Daily
1) note the trend line and zero line crossing, let's see how it goes from here.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 413
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 05:12 pm: |
|
HC,
If you buy at $3.72, have a 1st target of $3.82 and have a stoploss around $3.62 you have a risk/reward ratio of around 1:1
You would need a win rate (reliability) of well over 50% to make money like that. Do you have a win rate that high?
Like most long term traders I have a win rate below 50%. It was 38% last time I worked it out, about a year ago.
I admit to knowing almost nothing about short-term trading although have had a couple of flukes lately, so thanks for educating me.
Regards
chance
PS Hasn't this week, and esp today been brilliant.
Hope this keeps up (touch golf clubs as suemac would say)
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 655
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 05:47 pm: |
|
ARP Weekly
1) Chance, 3.82, if you like is the "breakeven" point for me, I expect the stock to pause here for a while before moving on
2) Referring to the weekly chart, the volume at 3.82 is just slightly higher than average, I don't expect it to pose too much problem once the stock gets moving. Anyway I am still trying and learning, let's see how it goes.
Cheers and have a good weekend.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 656
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 05:50 pm: |
|
missed this: 3) I have placed considerable emphasis on the fundamentals of this stock - something I guess quite invalid in short term trade? A case of old habit die hard...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 414
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, January 07, 2005 - 05:56 pm: |
|
Righto cobra,
arn't we all, good luck,
treat yourself to the lucerne paddock for the weekend.
Regards
chance
posts crossed, anyway it's good if you can get both the fundamentals and the technicals working together, so long as you can stand all that quacking!
(Message edited by chance on January 07, 2005)
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 711
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, January 23, 2005 - 05:35 pm: |
|
ARP Daily
1) I think the TTC is on its way. Last call!
2) For those who want safe trade, wait for the short term MA crossing;
3) Here is a brief review of the three trades - HSP, GUD and ARP:
3.1) HSP, I believe has performed well mainly due to its new growth/speculative driver - with the injection of GGL. It's like a whole new ball game, hence new hope for the investors and punters;
3.2) GUD, it's not due to poor management as in HSP, but its demise has more to do with market expectation which has reached an unrealistic level and hence its topple from the height. With tighter management and cost control, and with a hefty haircut, I believe the appeal in this stock would be its decent earning and good management. Let's see if the market buy it;
3.3) ARP, it has some operational problem with warehousing(which has been overcome); and it has some problem with cost control(due to forex, aka, high AUD) which it can't control (their comfort level is 70 US cent to an AUD); the thing that is going for this trade is its past good record and decent management plus its recent haircut that may be appealing to some investor. Also I believe the recent record sale of new vehicle could be plus, just that I am not sure how many are urbane 4WD that need a bullbar to mow down every single pedestrian as if they are some kind of wild kangaroo... Duh!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 20
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Monday, January 24, 2005 - 09:06 am: |
|
Hi HC
Enjoy your posts and reasoning, keep up the good work.
ARP is a fundamental dream stock due to the consistency of past results.
Growth in earnings year after year.
Earnings surprise positive for last 5 years.
I know a bloke who bought at $3.90 and out at$3.75 
After looking a little harder he was hoping to pick up some at the $3.30 to $3.40 area.
The chart is telling a positive story with the bounce off the support line and indicators ,although, the short term trend is a little suspect since the big dividend correction.
Depends now on the dollar effect and if earnings can beat the consensus forcast and the market trend.
Shareholders in ARP would be keen to add to their positions on any weakness i suspect.
Learning the hard way
mm
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 771
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 01:14 pm: |
|
ARP Daily
1) can't say I am pleased with this trade... it is moving a bit too "slooooowwwwly" like a snail to my liking (should expect that with its illiquidity); it will take some time for the whole process to play out, may be "they" are waiting for the report...
2) have decided to watch WMA as a stoploss indicator
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 791
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, February 03, 2005 - 09:32 am: |
| | | |
