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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 692
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 20, 2005 - 08:40 am: |  
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SPX-5min
NASDAQ COMP-5min
DJIA-5min
1) looking at very short term changes here
2) SPX within 5 days found support at 1175 twice, let's see if it holds
3) So is NASDAQ COMP @2068
4) ... and DJIA @11500
5) incidentally, for those who are wondering which OHLC value is more significant, if you believe volume matters, take a look at the DJIA chart - can you see the Volume spike at closing? If you are not convinced ask this question - "why is there such high turnover at closing?"
Just why do people wait until closing time then start buying?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 441
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 20, 2005 - 05:29 pm: |
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Is that a rhetorical question HC?
I like the last chart showing volume.
Can you do one like that for the All ords for the last few days?
I'd like to know if volume follows the same pattern here.
chance
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 693
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 20, 2005 - 10:19 pm: |
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Chance,
No can do. Sometimes they show volume, other times no! So far I think only DJIA comes with volume and the other two "nyet".
Here is the AORD chart.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 735
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 25, 2005 - 04:23 pm: |
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1) short term the index is still looking weak with the expanding range. There was a last minute plunge which has been truncated but "luckily" it stopped just right at the short term support - this should make tomorrow's opening interesting...
2) you should look at this chart as a continuation from the previous post to get a short term perspective.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 768
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 29, 2005 - 04:36 pm: |
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I see a +ve divergence in the daily MACD histogram in all three indices - SPX, DJI and NAS Comp... these are the things that may help for a bounce:
1) the strong volume;
2) the recent pattern in August;
3) the 200d WMA may provide additional support;
Let's see although I gotta say this is a long shot and is stacked against the seasonal pattern (as in last year).
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 778
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 09:49 am: |
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Here are a few observations that may help support the view above:
1) the recent on rush of M&A - it implicitly says the "acquisitors" are seeing "value" and that they are buying cheap - a case of market bottoming out?
2) someone was saying gold "might" drop below 400 to 380 short term, the chart on Bloomberg TV was showing a downward channel - this seems to say investors are willing to take on more risk and do not see gold as a "safe haven"? (the argument against this is the current gold play is seen as a "function" or reaction to the weak US$).
A side note here is that same guy was saying if and when gold recovers from this 380 low, it will shoot for 700 mark. (good luck to the gold lovers...)
3) Iraq election has passed without too much of ding dong, well, I'd assume it helps with the nerves of the investor... (I know, I know... it's a little far fetch); but now they can go get the terrorists who have been disrupting the oil production, right?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 808
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 06, 2005 - 11:59 am: |
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Telecom
Merger Fever Rages Unabated In Telecom
David Ng, 02.07.05, 7:00 AM ET
Two mega-mergers--one definite, the other potential--dominated the telecommunications sector last week. In the Internet sector, several major players reported fourth-quarter results.
Qwest Communications (nyse: Q - news - people ) is reported to be in talks to acquire MCI (nyse: MCIP - news - people ). The potential deal was revealed late Thursday and is estimated at around $6.3 billion, close to MCI's market value. Various reports also stated that MCI is negotiating a merger with Verizon Communications (nyse: VZ - news - people ), though some analysts discounted those rumors. Deutsche Bank Securities said the Qwest-MCI deal could provide substantial upside potential for Qwest. "If a deal is announced, we believe Qwest could rise to $6 to $7, while if talks collapse, it could trade down to $3 to $4," Deutsche Bank said. The research firm maintained a "hold" rating on Qwest, saying there are too many uncertainties surrounding the company to justify a stock upgrade.
Earlier in the week, SBC Communications (nyse: SBC - news - people ) announced it would acquire AT&T (nyse: T - news - people ) for $16 billion, or about $19.71 per share of AT&T. The companies said the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2006. SBC said it expects the transaction to be cash-flow positive in 2007 and earnings-per-share positive in 2008. The two companies also reported they would eliminate approximately 13,000 jobs. In a research note published after the merger announcement, J.P. Morgan upgraded SBC to "overweight" from "neutral," citing the operational merits of the takeover. For SBC, "we see the following benefits: reduced exposure to consumers, improved competitive position for Cingular and hedged access reform risks," the research firm said. "We would expect earnings-per-share accretion by 2007, one year ahead of management expectations." Morgan Stanley said SBC will have little difficulty achieving cost synergies of $2.1 billion per year....
Here is the full report.
2005 Crystal Ball Gazing... from a cow's eyeballs
In 01/02 there were a few telcomm M&A but they were found to be too "early" where many, including Warren Buffett jumped into some "dead chicken" deal because of the extreme discount price tag in those deals. They were wrong because that was just the initial shakeout.
(I guess it's a case of the head honcho of these telcos find it really hard to throw in the towel after spending multi-millions or billions of $$ and then admit to everyone one or two years later that they have screwed up big time.)
So the screwed telcos continue their "struggle" until finally it all crashing down on them... like now. I think, this time it's for real. I think, after four to five years most of these telcos are either in extreme distraught state or are facing product/service/technology obsolescence that if they do not act sooner, the assets will not worth a "dime" if they drag on.
So the above news may be a sign of time. It may be an early signal that indicates all these so called "sea of cash" sitting in big corporations in the USA, destined for CAPEX but was held back because of "fear" and uncertainty in the last couple of years that these companies have now reached a stage that they are facing REAL productivity/competition issues if they delay any further their CAPEX, activities like equipment upgrade/maintenance, network expansion/coverage, and/or simply business expansion into new business area etc... or they face severe growth hindrance or let new competition sneaks into their market.
For whatever the reasons or market pressure, there is a very high likelihood that mega M&A in the retail/trading, software and now telcomm sector will ignite heavy competitive forces that prompt other companies to start utilising their cash reserve. If that's the case, then, it's almost inevitable that the companies that are involved in M&A, the companies that supply the supporting products and services, either down line or up line will start showing more active business activities and improved bottom lines six months down the road or sooner.
If that's the case, regardless how the US market' short term movement is, outlook into the medium (6 months) to the longer time frame bodes extremely well for a buoyant, if not a "hot" market over there. It would be extremely unwise for anyone to anticipate a bearish market going into the second half of 2005 or the whole of 2006...
This time, it's not the consumer dollars that are pushing the market, this time, it will be the corporate money that will act as the locomotive engine... those into gold may have to go into a winter hibernation for a while and those into betting against US$ may have seen their peak.
(A contrarian question here: is it not it's almost a universal, if not a consensus that the only way for the US$ is down? If it's so obvious to every Tom Dick and Harry, who's going to make money out of them? Who's the sucker this time?)
Ok, now that I have put on my voodoo hat and turn a shaman, you can hit me when 2005 turns out to be an "iceberg" in disguise and your gold is reaching US700 and the US$ reaching a new low...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 830
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 08, 2005 - 04:26 pm: |
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AORD-5min
1) yesterday they giveth, today they taketh... almost back to the square one!
2) notice BLD(Boral)'s performance today? They reported this: Boral is down 27 cents at A$6.84 after first half net profit fell 3%. Prospects of a flat full year result as the company noticed a slowdown in domestic dwelling activity since July 2004 has driven selling...
The stock lost 4.78% although profit only dropped by 3% - can I say this is not a very efficient market? 
Just choose one - it's either an over-sold or an over-priced stock this BLD.
3) ATG, a stock I bought quite sometimes back, it surprises me this morning... with a huge jump! Check it out - something is happening but I have not a clue! The only hint I gathered this morning is "they" are going to rotate into "consumer" related sectors because these sectors are the ones "whacked" recently. Corollary, those who have been riding the finance/banking sector, just you wait!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 835
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 10, 2005 - 08:51 am: |
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... this whole morning I have been ruminating on Alex Elder's words of wisdom (not in exact words) - "we don't really trade the market, we merely trade our belief in/of the market..."
It's our perception of the market that kills or makes us. Not the "truth" of the market because there's none!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 479
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 10, 2005 - 12:35 pm: |
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HC,
My initial reaction to that was, I don't think so, and thought about the analogy of the market being like a river.
Looking at it from the riverbank you can see the general direction of flow or the 'truth' of it's direction.
If you submerge yourself in the river though, it is hard to see the direction of flow due to local currents and eddies.
If you looked at it really closely you would just see water molecules moving about at random.
Therefore my initial thought was that you just need to stand back and look at a long time period in the case of the market to see it's 'truth'.
But even that is only a possibility and is not guaranteed.
Therefore the 'truth' of the market must be outside of time.
Whatever it is at any given instant is the 'truth' and as soon as you consider it 'with time' there are only possibilities.
So, I agree that we trade our perceptions, not because the 'truth' of the market doesn't exist, but because we trade 'in time'.
chance
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 836
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 10, 2005 - 04:23 pm: |
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Chance,
That's way too deep and philosophical for my cow brain man...
The stock market is a creation by man, to me, there is really no "truth" in it. If there is any, I'd call it "fact" which in a way is quite well illustrated by the "flat earth" common view back in the dark and not-so-dark ages. At that time most people I believe were genuinely believing in the "fact" that the earth was flat (which make Columbus'es discovery of the Americas such a big deal)
What I was ruminating about this morning, take the current market condition as an illustration - the index has only dropped 0.08%, but take a look at the "market internals"
Top 50 leaders
... this is what I was ruminating about. Whilst many perceive the market to be buoyant and bullish and uptrending... if only they look deeper.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 837
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 10, 2005 - 04:29 pm: |
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AORD-5min
1) of my head, "roughly" the adv/dec ratio is about 2.5:1
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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