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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 729
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 25, 2005 - 09:03 am: |  
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Sometimes I wonder if they live in a "cartoon" world, where Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck are the heroes... frankly I am not impressed by their "sense of value". If there is a "greedometer" to measure their greed, I have a feeling many of them would have register reading beyond the scale!
Here is the news article.
But a Foster's spokeswoman said the $4.17 offer "more than compensates for every factor raised by Southcorp in that letter. I would suggest the only real experts in a position to judge are the analysts, and their average valuation . . . is $2.80 (a share)."
However, many analysts have revised - upwards - their outlook for Southcorp shares since the Foster's bid became public; some (now stand at $4.40).
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 810
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 06, 2005 - 02:07 pm: |
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"I never thought we'd be this strong so quick, and we are probably due for a correction, but it's hard to see where it is going to come from,"...
"Demand for commodities remains strong. We are entering what will be a solid company profit season and the market just seems to want to keep on going. It's hard to see how it is going to stop."
-- Shane Oliver, the head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors
Comment: it will come when everyone has stopped talking about it, or even remotely thinking of it... The situation right now is this: everytime when some one raises the issue of market correction - he/she will be proven wrong in due time, this will repeat until the market has gradually succeeded in weaning everyone from "worrying" about the sky falling down.
So, stop talking about market correcting and watch quietly... keep an eye on the subtle market signals - there will come a time where everyone will only talk about buying, everyone will jeer and sneer at anyone that tries to cry wolf; where you will hear on a daily basis someone telling you how much of a kill he/she is making (in a nice and humble way of course!  ) and so on...
Just wait for that day.
ps: btw way, don't expect a crash like the tech wreck; expect an intermediate correction that will take about 10-15% from the index and probably 30% or more from individual stocks. Those bluechips that looks expensive now will become "cheap" again.
The reason a crash will not happen is rather simple, it's still early days - China has not self-exploded yet. She still has the 2008 Olympic glory to achieve. Many construction projects are yet to start or to be completed; in addition, there is a "cushioning buffer" excuse in the rise of India that provides the additional support when weakness begins to show in China. The investing public's optimism will deter any negative sentiment until things become so obvious to everyone that it is unsustainable then you will see a panic driven crash.
Right now, THAT eventuality is still years away. So don't worry, be happy! Just brace for an intermediate correction will do!
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HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 825
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 08, 2005 - 11:15 am: |
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And in the year to date, some interesting market trends have emerged. Two brokers involved in previous Telstra sell-downs, ABN Amro and CSFB, are posting outstanding shares of Telstra trading. At the end of last week CSFB had won 6.7 per cent of total trading but 9.1 per cent of the Telstra volume. ABN Amro had 5.8 per cent national trading share but 8.4 of Telstra's...More.
I just hope these two "evil" brokers won't be given any deal for being so opportunistic and smelling like some scavengers... (jeer to them!)
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 826
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 08, 2005 - 11:21 am: |
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And in the year to date, some interesting market trends have emerged. Two brokers involved in previous Telstra sell-downs, ABN Amro and CSFB, are posting outstanding shares of Telstra trading. At the end of last week CSFB had won 6.7 per cent of total trading but 9.1 per cent of the Telstra volume. ABN Amro had 5.8 per cent national trading share but 8.4 of Telstra's...More.
I just hope these two "evil" brokers won't be given any deal for being so opportunistic and smelling like some scavengers... (jeer to them!)
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 852
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 11:30 am: |
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The Broker's Upgrade! Whoa!...
David Jones Too Cheap, Upgrade To Buy, UBS
Wednesday February 23, 2005, 9:57 am
Following recent weakness in the company’s share price, UBS has upgraded David Jones (ASX: DJS.ax) to Buy 1 from Neutral 1.
The broker notes the company reported a strong 2Q sales result, with comparable store sales increasing 4.7%, above the broker’s forecast.
The company has lowered its operating costs, which the broker notes has offset a decline in gross margins. The company will make a capital management announcement in early March, with the broker noting the company has the ability to make a capital return of up to $80m currently.
UBS has a target price on the stock of $2.41, slightly ahead of its valuation of $2.30...
~~~~~~~~~
The REALITY...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 861
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 26, 2005 - 03:07 pm: |
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"The Australian sharemarket appears to be in the process of a long-overdue correction,"
"The key drivers appear to be profit-taking after a strong earnings results - a classic case of 'buy on the rumour and sell on the fact' - and the fear of higher interest rates."
-- Shane Oliver, Head of investment strategy, AMP Capital Investors
Still, he expects the correction to be mild because the fundamentals are solid. Shares are still returning more than other asset classes, profit growth is expected to remain strong (though a bit weaker), and merger and acquisition activity and the disappearance of News Corp from the index will reduce the number of stocks on offer.
Then there is the $29 billion that UBS Warburg estimates fund managers are sitting on as they wait for an opportunity to invest...
The $29 billion is a BIG carrot dangling in front of the asses... but before you jump for joy remember they say the fund managers are sitting on it? They are waiting... for what?
Well, here is one view - THEY ARE WAITING FOR THE SHARE PRICE TO BECOME CHEAP AGAIN! AND THE ONLY WAY FOR THE SHARE PRICE TO BECOME CHEAP IS????
AND WHY DO THEY SEE THE CURRENT MARKET AS "LACK OF OPPORTUNITY"?
... start thinking and fill in the blanks! Here are some possible answers:
1) because no one wants to sell and everyone is going long, afterall they have gone long for two years and it works!
2) to make the market/share cheap again in my simplistic view is through selling, a case of supply/demand issue. Otherwise I can't see how the share price can become cheap and represent opportunity to them
3) someone says these fund managers can't sit on their funds for too long because it would cost them - so, there are two possibilities - either they start buying now (which means they see the current market to be cheap?), or they start selling (to create opportunity) before they start buying. Pick one!
4) of course there's always the alternative view - none of the above!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 977
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 20, 2005 - 11:25 am: |
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Now this is gonna hurt... just imagine all these while everyone is trading against a group of BIG MONKEYS?
Anyway I find this "research" finding rather useless other than knowing the stock market/trading is a game played by many monkeys... and there's no free banana! Duh!
Thanks so much for another brilliant academic research...
Even chimps could play the stockmarket
March 20, 2005
You might be forgiven for wondering if the best way to invest in shares is to consult a chimpanzee first. It has long been suspected that stockbrokers and fund managers are just lucky, overpaid fools who work in an industry where chance rules.
Now science is beginning to support the idea that randomness, not rationality, exerts surprising sway over financial markets.
The insights have come from researchers who are interested in complexity, where the simple behaviour of many traders in a market governed by various rules can produce highly complex emergent behaviour (the waxing and the waning of share prices).
In this kind of world, 1000 oranges plus another thousand oranges could lead to something quite different from 2000 oranges, such as a marmalade factory.
One of the leading exponents of applying complexity theory to the sharemarket is Professor Doyne Farmer of the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico. He has tried to model human traders as simple software programs - called agents - to see if they can reproduce the behaviour of the London Stock Exchange.
Professor Farmer and his colleagues decided to start out with the simplest model of all. They assumed that their software traders placed orders to buy and sell at random, subject only to trading rules in a typical financial market.
This "is something you can teach your dog", said Professor Farmer. "You can program your computer to do it in one line."
They tested their simple-minded traders on 21 months of data on 11 stocks from the London Stock Exchange.
The model did not predict prices, but it did reflect, to a surprising degree, the variation from stock to stock, the spread - the difference between buying and selling prices - and the price diffusion rate, how actively the prices were moving around.
Although most economic models stress the role of strategy in financial market transactions, this study shows it is possible for a computer to reproduce the variations in stocks by dropping assumptions of rationality nearly altogether.
The predictive power of this "zero intelligence" model will fuel suspicions that fund managers rely more on luck than judgement. But the success of this model does not imply that stock traders are devoid of any intelligent thought, as they try to outwit each other, said Professor Farmer's colleague, Ilija Zovko.
"The prevailing view in economics about how markets function is that you have a rational investor rationally processing all the information that arrives," Professor Farmer said. "Our analysis challenges that view by saying that maybe a lot of price movement is more or less mechanical."
- Telegraph
Link here.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1059
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 04, 2005 - 05:00 pm: |
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Record Upgraded to Buy
Friday April 1, 2005, 10:03 am
Recent weakness in the share price of Record Investments (ASX: RCD.ax) has prompted UBS to upgrade its rating on the stock to Buy 2 from Neutral 2.
The broker notes the stock has fallen 15% since early February, compared to a 6% fall in S&P/ASX Small Industrials Index.
There is no change to the broker’s expectation of the company achieving a $1bn investment book by 2009(talking about long term forecast - this is a CLASSIC! Depending on individual, 2005 to 2009 to me is almost as long as "eternity"...), while it also forecasts strong growth in dividends as the company invests its funds.
A change to the broker’s risk free rate(WHOA! A Sure thing like British Paint!) has seen its target price fall to $6.55 from $6.75, while also reducing its valuation to $6.25 from $6.45.
*** btw, this "news" was dated 1/4, and on 31/3 and 1/4, the sp has jumped 23c and today is down 18c thus far - for the record.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1060
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 04, 2005 - 05:12 pm: |
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JP Morgan Bank Analysts Defy JP Morgan Strategists
Thursday March 31, 2005, 8:56 am
JP Morgan bank analysts are revolting (and I know, I’ve met one of them).
Today Morgans’ strategists have espoused the bullish case for Australian banks. The stock analysts have in turn produced a report in stark disagreement, believing the investment case for the banks has diminished.(Ok, let's make a stand everyone, altogether now... SHOW THEM strategists YOUR MIDDLE FINGER and say NAH! Now show your thumb up to the analysts, at least they have "balls"!)
The stock analysts say the banks have outperformed the market due to three main factors:
(1) Strong earnings growth, due to sustained housing credit growth, modest compression in lending spreads, rationalisation, and a strong economy with low interest rates;
(2) Increased balance sheet gearing through hybrid tier 1 capital raisings fuelling buybacks;
(3) PE multiples expanded as global bond markets rallied increasing dividend yields.
However, the analysts believe the risk in the medium term is:
(1) Earnings risk, through a slowdown in housing, competitive lending, reinvestment in branch networks and higher interest rates;
(2) Risk of prudential regulators tightening tier 1 rules;
(3) PE multiples pressured due to faltering global bond markets.
*** btw, be sceptical be very very sceptical with UBS's BS artists' recommendation because this Hedgefund, ooops, I mean this hedgefunddisguisedasinvestmentbank is known to have its funds floating all over the world riding trend... I won't bet my little finger on them. And yeah, everyone, altogether now... and show them your midd...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1180
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 05, 2005 - 09:32 am: |
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Retailers hit in stock clearance
By Dewi Cooke
May 5, 2005
More profit warnings and further evidence that the economy is slowing have cut as much as 1 per cent from the value of Australian shares, and analysts warn of further falls.
"We've well and truly sailed through the sweet spot," Alistair Drummond of JPMorgan said yesterday, referring to the market's decline from recent record highs....
*** what really annoys the sh*t out of me is THIS FREAKING OUTCOME IS EXPECTED, has been expected, and talked about umpteen times over... and over and over again! And I am damn sure them analysts know this very well too!
Well, can't blame me calling them names in the lowest form of life on earth here.
Link here.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1181
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 05, 2005 - 09:40 am: |
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Property stocks flogged
By Carolyn Cummins
Sydney
May 5, 2005
Mirvac's Yarra's Edge development. With profit predicted to fall, its share price fell 25¢ to $3.48.
Mirvac's Yarra's Edge development. With profit predicted to fall, its share price fell 25¢ to $3.48.
Photo: James Davies
Investors wiped more than $11.5 billion from the value of listed property stocks yesterday as they absorbed the profit downgrades now besetting the sector.
The carnage started at the opening bell as fund managers and brokers reacted to official confirmation from developers that there was a glut of apartments on the market that were not selling...
*** same old story as above post... $@#@!#$%
Link here.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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