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MXG - a case study for the "Sucker's game"

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » The Squawk Box » Lesson Galore » MXG - a case study for the "Sucker's game"

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holycow
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Registered: 08-2004

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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 11:06 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The news...

Australia's Multiplex profit jumps
Thursday February 24, 2005, 10:08 am

MELBOURNE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Australian developer Multiplex Group Ltd. (ASX: MXG.ax) first-half net profit jumped, boosted by recent acquisitions.

Multiplex, which more than doubled its property assets in November buying Ronin Property Group and some of UK property group Chelsfield's assets, said on Thursday it was on track to meet a forecast for net profit ebfore stapling eliminators of A$235.3 million.

Net profit rose to A$36.97 million ($29.1 million) from A$3.46 million a year earlier. Aggregated net profit before stapled eliminations and minority interests was A$91.7 million.

Multiplex shares last traded at A$5.59, up 34 percent so far this financial year, double the gain in the broader market and more than triple the gain in the property sector .AXPJ. ($1=A$1.27)


~~~~~~~~~~~~
The price/market action...

mxg


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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holycow
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Monday, February 28, 2005 - 08:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thought I will add more "sauce" in this pot...

MXG Daily
mxg

1)read elsewhere this stock is over sold and it has pretty good fundamental value and is good for longer term play, probably right but here are some reason at least why short to mid term (until the next confession season at least) this stock should be avoided;

2) there is a lot of "hate" in the street with the management at the moment for not coming clean earlier, with it, there is a lost of "trust" in the management and as usual the "cockcroach theory" comes into play - when you see one, there are probably many more in hiding - the question in everyone's mind at the moment is "is there anymore bad news?".

- the uncertainty and doubt and the subsequent induced fear would make this stock "not the favour of the month"; it will take the management a lot more convincing to turn the market perception;

- the other alternative is through the bottom line, that is, when come next report - the management shows there is no more hiccup;

3) looking at the chart, the RSI is definitely oversold, but with such a dominant red candle, expecting the sp to climb back to its old glory or even half way mark will be a big ask short term - which bring forth the question - is MXG the only game in town? Why choose to climb such a steep slope when there are easier ones around?







HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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stevo
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Monday, February 28, 2005 - 11:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Change MXG to MGX and you would have more fun!

stevo


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holycow
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MXG Daily
mxg


1) two lines will determine if MXG is on the come back trail, one at 4.50 and the other at 4.90. Clearing the 4.50 hurdle will show MXG has the necessary "footwork" to clear the next one. Clearing 4.90 will show all it needs at that point is a "change of heart" in the fundies...

2) but until then, MXG remains a speculative play, and for as long as they are still trying to sue their way to a better bottom line;

3) and yes, MGX... now that FMG has begun to unravelled, I am waiting to see how long MGX will stay on course and keep its investor feeling happy. Just don't hold on too long!


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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holycow
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Monday, March 28, 2005 - 07:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here's a BIG caution - when a public listed company is being run by the "family", it smells of nepotism. And I don't like nepotism... because it means compromises and mediocrity.

...The offer was also underwritten by Mr Roberts' two sons, Multiplex managing director Andrew Roberts and the company's head of development, Tim Roberts, and Mr John Roberts' daughter, Denby MacGregor...

Link here.


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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holycow
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Monday, June 06, 2005 - 12:06 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



While I wait for the market to show its hand (yes, think positive, it is going to go up even when it seems to be going down... good time will roll on, come on! Keep investing and go long!)...

MXG Daily
mxg



VLL Daily
vll
Village Life Ltd (‘VLL’) today asked ASX to continue the suspension of its shares from trading. Its shares have been suspended by request since Monday 23 May 2005.
VLL has advised ASX that it will request the suspension be lifted as soon as VLL can provide appropriate disclosure to the market about its likely earnings for the financial year ended 30 June 2005. It anticipates making this request to ASX during the week ending 17 June 2005.




FLT Weekly
flt


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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holycow
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MGR Daily
mgr


1) MGR is suffering from property slump and the glut in the market, so its problem is not that "terminal" comparatively; but let's see how it goes... my bet is "down"!


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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holycow
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Thursday, August 18, 2005 - 11:40 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



... note the bleeding wound of GBP 3mil a month and the additional provisioning. This one is a worry.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com//050818/18/7njd.html

Thursday August 18, 07:39 PM
UPDATE: Wembley Still Problem For Australia's Multiplex

By Bill Lindsay

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)-- Australian construction and property company Multiplex Group (MXG.AU) Thursday said that annual net profit rose 72%, but increased its provisioning on the troublesome A$1.2 billion Wembley Stadium project in London.

While reaffirming that the project will be completed by the end of March 2006 in time for the FA Cup soccer final, Multiplex said it has taken another A$8.6 million provision "against residual risks that remain until project completion". It faces payments of up to GBP3 million a month if the March timetable isn't met.

Multiplex's net loss on the stadium is now about A$50 million, on top of a A$50 million indemnity
that the Roberts family, which founded the company more than 40 years ago, provided against the project in February.

In the 12 months ended June 30, net profit rose to A$83.8 million from A$48.9 million a year earlier, with the property trust operation improving its contribution s while the construction arm recorded a pretax loss of A$62 million. Group revenue rose 24% to A$4.15 billion.

"The result is very disappointing and has been significantly impacted by the substantial losses experienced at Wembley National Stadium," said chief executive Andrew Roberts, the son of founder John Roberts.

With the imminent completion of two projects in Queensland state, "by the end of the month all loss making projects except Wembley will be complete", the chief executive said.

"The profit doesn't really mean all that much, the real question is where's the business going qualitatively," said Dahlan Simpson, a research analyst at Tyndall Investment Management.


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HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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holycow
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Sunday, August 21, 2005 - 10:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Alan Kohler's write-up rings a bell in my head...

1) the similarity between MXG and SGW;
2) both are run by "family members";
3) both governance and transparency are raising a lot of question marks;
4) both in many ways have questionable auditing practices;
5) both have suffered huge sell down;
6) both have lost a lot of market confidence;
7) both have lost a lot of fundies goodwill;
8) both have on going "bleeding wound", and they seem to have trouble getting out of the hole they are in;
9) I am not saying there's any foul play in MXG, what I am saying is I will avoid this one until they open their book totally.


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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