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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 863
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, February 27, 2005 - 11:19 am: |  
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It's such a beautiful day in Melbourne today and I have to be house sitting! $@#%^! I should be walking in the park instead of walking with my fingers... such is life!
Anyway, someone showed me a link to another forum site(SS) not too long ago and this morning I have been snooping around... and I found some gems of oldies' goldies. There were some pretty long timers talking about their experience that set a couple of "ping!" in my head - can't agree with them more! (note: I don't know any of them, and for all I know they may even be the tenants in this forum)
May be you'd like to check that thread out, but I won't tell you the link in keeping to the protocol of this forum... you'd just gotta find out yourself.
Briefly I would regurgitate what I "felt" agreeable and resonate with...
1) they are mostly humble (just like me... whoa! just kidding here  ) and they don't "force" their view down other's throat. On the other hand I look at myself and I can't say the same about me... so I reckon they have more depth than me. Salute.
2) they are relatively "flexible" in their approach - they don't belittle FA nor do they belittle TA, they just take what suits them. Sometimes they use a combination of both, I guess depending on the "general market condition".
3) they generally are not "greedy" and they are quite happy with their own approach within a "certain" time frame.
4) they generally display a degree of confidence in themselves and they, like every body else hold a certain view of the market; also there's a general scepticism of market analyst, broker recommendation, etc. Overall they rely more on their own "research".
5) they generally advise caution on margin and instrument like CFD because of the amplification effect and the unfair odds stacking against the traders (in CFD). On my part I see newbie hopping into CFD as a form of financial suicide and a general reflection of inexperience couple with greed - a deadly brew. Also it is a very good contrarian indicator that the market has gone a little too bullish.
6) they generally believe the good time will roll on underpinned by the sound economy. They also do not believe the good time will continue forever. Mostly the bet is off sometimes in 2006. (I agree!)
7) they always play safe and keep some reserve "just in case" and for the sudden unexpected market movement (like going down in flame?).
8) I don't think I am doing a good job in summarising for them, best you check them out for yourself. Without knowing these people in person, I can only take what they say on face value but I have to say many of what they have mentioned make a lot of sense.
So if you are newbie, you can do two things - check them out and then laugh at them because you know you can do better; or you can be a little humble and learn from their experience, hopefully one day twenty years down the road you can look back and then you tell your story like them and show your battle scars to some juniors.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 869
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 28, 2005 - 09:13 am: |
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just realise I can't spell "survivor"...
... anyway here's just a view - when market is reaching some kind of top and is undergoing some kind of correction whether ST or LT, it pays to analyse the sector indices to get a gauge on the market/sector strength, chances are these indices would most likely shade some light on the direction of the general market. Especially in ASX where bulk of the money is invested in the finance, fin-x-prop, material, industrial and the consumer sectors.
Take a look at each index and ask yourself if the major sector indices are looking bullish or healthy(?). Are you convince they are showing strength for further and greater run? Are they in the early, middle or late stage of bull market? The duration of their up trend as measure against the duration of each phase of minor consolidation, is each consolidation period getting shorter?
For a more simplistic approach - are the various common indicators of each index below water? Use RSI 50, MACD zero line, TMF zero line to gauge its strength; use your favourite st, mt or lt MA to gauge the price action; use bollinger band to gauge the swing, use OBV and volume to see if the volume is declining?
The point is this - at every major turning point, all these indicators or measure generally do give out quite a fair bit of hint, the problem lies in the traders' failure or refusal to "accept" what they see where upon they rely on confirmation and further confirmation which most times end up with "every one is seeing the same thing at the last moment" and cause a panic rush to the exit door resulting in more grief.
A simple rule of thumb like "ok, it's 4116 points now, how much can I expect the index to move higher before it really would not hold up anymore as measure against how much lower it can go down to from 4116. A very important point which I picked up from O'Neill is you have to FEAR when the index is going down and HOPE when the index is going up. Doing it in a reverse manner would mean you are beginning to think like one of the herd - you hope when you should be fearful and vice versa.
I am not saying it's a certainty the market will correct further or rally higher - in fact I am not saying anything of this nature at all. I am just asking you, as a trader to start looking deep into your psyche and start analysing yourself and your thinking process.
It's at moment like this where you find your strength and weakness. And it's moment like this you know if you have what it takes to trade for another 20 years.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 951
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 09:14 am: |
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So I was here talking about some old timers surviving the market and are making a living out of it... granted not all of them use TA or FA in isolation; but there "seem" to be a general acknowledgement that sometimes along the way they do deploy one or both to give them an edge.
Yet, right now I am reading in this TA-centric forum some people are telling everyone there's no predictability in any of the TA techniques(?) (does it mean chart, indicators, ma's are all a waste of time?)
Great discussion that. Just wonder why the hell they are here in this forum arguing or discussing something so useless and so "waste of time". Won't it be more profitable for them to do something else other than discussing something that doesn't work??
Now I am truly puzzled.
... which reminds me of Warren Buffett - he was so "cheesed off" by the academic talking some kind of "efficient market" concept and that "random walk" is as good as anything you can utilise in stock market - whilst they ignored his GREAT SUCCESS in making billions from the market. That's why for a long time he would not donate a single cent to any university or any academic scholarship because he reckoned they are a complete waste of time!
I agree with WB, hence I believe you should always put on a sceptical hat when you hear others coming out with something "theoretically sound", "academically brilliant" and "mathematically modelled", objective and almost bulletproof... they are good for an academic discussion because so much time has been spent on the what-if and not enough time has been spent on actually doing it and living through it - like these old timers I talked about.
And like WB - who has the proof. His mountain of cash could easily bury anyone alive who so challenges him.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 963
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 11:38 am: |
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HC,"THEY" have the Fear as per O'neill on the going down.The fear that if they sell,it might go up again and they'll face the prospect of
a)missing some profit
b)having to pay brokerage again[a 'truly' major expense]
So it falls,they are only losing their concept of 'someone elses' money,they wear that.I still haven't been able to work out this someone elses money mainstrem line in IC.It seems to me a Guilt excuse to justify hanging round in Cafe Society blase,without a care.
"What did you do in the market today,dear?"
"Oh just lost someone else's money,darling."
HC,you have to realise IC forum is a comedy show with most members not in on the jokes.
cheers hc,
jr
ps-i'm formulating a question Psych.Hope you'll put some input or it'll probably just sit there unreplied,dismissed,ignored.
edit-reread post psych.It is an argument basically between futures/day(s)traders and Long Termers[holding preferably for a year to save CGT.]
So i won't buy into that.I have another question i'll do here for you hc soon.
(Message edited by dogalog on March 16, 2005)
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 954
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 02:48 pm: |
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Dr,
There's no need to ponder that issue - CGT is like a "baby soother"... when things don't work out they fall back to this comforter to make themselves feeling better.
It's quite similar to the mindset of negative gearing, which most of my relatives who are into properties raised in dinner - the simple concept of paying their fair share of tax and pocket their fair share of profit is so much harder to understand/stomach than suffering an investment loss and claim a portion of their loss back in taxes.
Look around and you will see many of this kind of funny psyche - in another place again - this lady bought a stock at about 30c (can't remember exactly), the stock went up to 75c, came back down to 55c, and from 55c it plunged down to 40c and she is still holding and feeling very good about her investment because she reckons she is still doing very well because she went in at 30c and on top of that she has been earning dividends all these while...
From 75 to 40, we are looking at a loss of 46%. From 55 to 40, we are looking at a loss of 27%. I am not sure how much dividend she has been taking home, but I reckon there's a lapse in good thinking somewhere.
But I will never call them foolish or anything like that because I know she is a very smart lady. It's just one of those things that we all fall into sometimes.
Heard of cognitive resonance before? This may provide some answer.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 965
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 03:22 pm: |
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Will read your article,hc but have put a list of under 10 cent stocks brought to the attention today in THAT paper.
Only 2 are in uptrend,2 have been consolidating for a year,the other 6 all downtrending.
I've listed them in Systems so they are available for checking later.
Put any analysis/chat about them in Adren Junkies,if you like.I'm checking if any response at all comes in systems 'from the outside world'.
How about a short term system development down here in Back Pages HC?Don't worry about the rest of the forum,i've pretty well established a Cover for us disclaimer wise.[as in what would those idiots know]
You don't secretly wish to be bent over to,do you hc?Like ya don't want guru of the year awards,right?Lets do some practical if off beat Share talk development.msparks will probably be in,we'll make it only short term and use that as a 'Cull'to talk about dividends and ,well, the market is falling,the US is stupid,all that stuff.
Lets get micro,hc,hey?Share setups ,stuff like that.
cheers,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 955
Registered: 08-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 04:34 pm: |
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Dr,
It's not that I don't like the idea - but did you notice it's been a while I have put up something (buy call) be it long term short term? Speculating is fun if not very profitable (if you are still keeping track of the couple of stocks I have mentioned b4), but lately I am finding it hard(er) to pick stocks because either they have already had a run or are in the midst of it or they have gone up big and are on the way down.
I am not sure about you and others, but I find this unsettling when most of my scan list leaders are 2nd, 3rd tier stocks or penny dreadfuls - when turkeys are leading the pack and you follow suit, you'd probably end up in the dinner table... just like them.
I reckon now is the moment we put "capital conservation and preservation" into practice and while I am in conservation mode, I find it hard to encourage others to punt - it just doesn't feel right because I don't have the same conviction in the stock as in the past...
(Have you noticed "they" are now taking profit on RIO and BHP these last two days and are shifting their funds into banks? This just my guess but the "churning" and "rotation" seem a little "sinister"- may be just a show to keep the index up until all the dividends are paid - call me a suspicious character if you want )
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 967
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 06:30 pm: |
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I understand what you're saying,HC.The market is peaking,at least in your opinion.I find the ways you have to tell the sell off by institutions intriguing.
I accept it,i can afford to accept it.I'm,well,i'm sort of sick of reading about it.You've stated,illustrated,pointed it out and if others want to dispute it?Well,they're not coming down here to say so to you,they just sit waiting and possibly snickering while they wait.
Forget about them,hc.You've acted on your 'reading' of the situation.I just think it's time to tone/trim/improve techniques to this constantly evolving market.I need to do that.Want to join/aid/assist in that process?Discuss the scene as it is and what can be done realistically?
I'll illustrate when/how/whatever later.
cheers,
jr
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1061
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 17, 2005 - 01:03 pm: |
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Hi JR,
Please let me indulged myself in your interesting conversation with HC.
May I ask the question, if fundies are to sell out of their holdings, where are they going to place their funds? If there is a mandate where the funds is going to be placed, will it be in the fund managers' interest to place it elsewhere. Barring that a few fundies use the bottom up approach and ignore the tracking of the indexation, what would the rest be doing besides overweighting or under weighting the shares they hold?.If they ignore a share all together wouldn't that be increasing the tracking error and acting outside the philosophy or principles they are supposed to subscribe to?Won't that be chaos and anarchy in the share market as a whole?How does the philosophy where funds go to where they get the best returns work out?
Residential properties are at an all time high, bonds and especially international bonds are giving low returns. Are we looking at private debts funding in big corporations like banks etc? What is the alternative if so, that the funds be used on equities where there can participate in the growth besides the returns?There will always be a correction when the share market goes up too quickly, however wont there be a short consolidation before the market continue on its own merry way?
Feeling better now,JR!
Cheers
PL
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 372
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 17, 2005 - 01:21 pm: |
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Hello Gentlemen,
Could it be the fundies are just cashing up a bit in order to be ready for the 'freedom of choice' of super funds, the workers are to be given shortly....July it starts doesn't it? Surely there will be some movement of cash as some choose to change funds and others feel they can do better by setting up their own DIYs. Cash is going to be needed for all that moving around, so they can't just leave it to the last minute and then go "Oh bother, we need some cash to give to X fund."
Also those that choose to run their own DIYs will probably keep there money close to home, I mean Australian shares.
Those that have made money from property have probably learned the lesson.....don't send your money out of town and buy in your own area because you can check on it easier.
Just a thought.
Cheers
Ann
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 972
Registered: 03-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Thursday, March 17, 2005 - 02:11 pm: |
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Can i be indulged peter loh by trying to summarise HC's position and then later coming to mine?{sorry ann,i prewrote and can't include your points]
OK-HC has been tracking the Funds Flow.His analysis is that it flows out much more on Down days then it flows in on Up ones.From this he has deduced that the Institutions are increasing their cash holdings as a proportion of their funds in anticipation of cheaper buying later,after a significant correction.Do you agree,peter?[this weeks flow would be affected by Victoria's Moomba holiday,it is reported]
Myself,as i don't have a million $$ in the market,tend to ignore the Funds.Especially Index Funds,i think are a legalised Con job."The index went up 10% and so did we /nearly/more/whatever.I haven't expressed it well but perhaps you peter can explain how such funds have any relevance to me?
I actually believe in anarchy/chaos.The words have very negative emotions tied to them but i find them closer to defining a Free Market.In an economic sense their opposite[anarchy/chaos] is regulation,red tape,Nanny state.The latter are conservative,maintain the status quo,when the world is always in a state of flux.Find out what's happening and it'll change in a free financial market but i won't ramble off there.Please don't start up on me about mob rule or the Right to rule,ok?
So i hope i've given you some kind of understandable response,peterloh.I always try to feel better,thanks for asking.How about,if you get the time,telling me about your NZ holiday?If you do it in Chinese Trading,we might get pitt back,if she hasn't gone broke with futures.
regards,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 963
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 | |
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