MRL
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     ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 348
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 10, 2005 - 09:25 pm: |  
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Hi HC,
Forgive me for starting a new thread in your grazing area but I thought a comment about Millers might be lost under PBG where we just mentioned it.
You said today you thought MRL is really sick and you likened it to ION and SGW......you may well be correct. However under the name of Lazard I see NAB and State Street have announced on the 28/2/05 an increased holding from 8.16% to 9.29%.
Not only that but the CEO Gary Perlstein through his associated company Investec Private Equity on the 19/1/ 05 through Investec bank has increased his holding from 7.46% to 15.82% In other words the CEO is very quietly buying into his own company. I always thought this was a good sign.....am I wrong?
Cheers
Ann
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 920
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 10, 2005 - 10:20 pm: |
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Ann,
1) you're welcome to create any topic for discussion - it makes life more interesting and richer 
2) the information on major share holders increasing their stakes is most interesting. There is however one problem - their impact on the stock price is not reflected in the chart. So right at this moment, I think other than knowing they have increased their stake, we know nothing about what they are going to do next - this, I think is probably more important.
3) So until they make their next move, at this moment my inclination is to stay away from MRL (just to be safe) - I think the essence of TA is not to predict but to read and understand what has transpired and act accordingly. So unless you're already in, I think it pays to watch and observe the sp and its volume for more clue. (I like to buy when the stock price has begun its upward recovery instead of trying to pick its lowest price)
4) I have attached the weekly chart of MRL:
4.1) note the ellipse - it seems to indicate the bottom has been reached (price range:86-113c); I would say 1.00 is a very strong base here;
4.2) note the arrows pointing to both volume bars - seems to say some fund sold 31 mil shares on that day and later some other fund picked them all up(?)
4.3) I would set 1.20 to be the immediate resistance to the current sp with 1.50 the next - if MRL is turning good, breaching the 1.50 resistance will be a very STRONG signal that it is recovering. (From 1.50 to 3.50, you are looking at 2.00 profit).
5) a word of caution, both ION and SGW caught quite a number of funds when they went down in flame - so, I am not ruling in or ruling out whether MRL is in their league. Using the computer jargon of garbage in garbage out as a guide - if these funds who went in big in MRL were to be fed the wrong kind of info, they won't know better.
Cheers.
MRL Weekly
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 350
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 10, 2005 - 11:09 pm: |
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HC thanks for the analysis. I think you are wise waiting, I would not be the first one back into this stock.....I would rather wait and see if they reinstall their divie payments for 2006.
That's what caused the huge dump in the stock price where you have it circled on 14/1/05. They issued a 'Profit Guidance Upgrade' in that they said they hadn't done very well and no interim or final dividend would be paid for 2005. It was on the 17/1/05 Mr Perlstein, the CEO for Millers, bought in big.
Apart from all of that, I remember when the stock first floated and it was being pushed like a barrow full of rocks, on an uphill run by the analysts. I took a look at their product and thought.....'not for me, the product looks cheap and nasty'. So I didn't buy into the company. I won't even buy their product.......but that is a personal point of view, very subjective. So please Mr Perlstein, don't sue me just 'cos I don't like your product and pointed out that you bought a big holding in your own company without it being made public the normal way.
Cheers
Ann
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greatdane
Member
Username: greatdane
Post Number: 174
Registered: 12-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 11, 2005 - 11:09 am: |
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Ann, HC + others,
You may find the Miller article in today’s AFR of interest.
"Hopes of better figures"
Some high-profile investors have joined Investec in backing Miller's Retail, write Jemima Whyte and Angus Grigg.
Australian Financial Review 11/03/2005
Regards, GreatDane
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 359
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 11, 2005 - 04:39 pm: |
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Hi Greatdane,
Well that was very interesting, thank you for pointing it out, I would have missed it.
Cheers
Ann
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