THE BANKS, The Banks, the banks...
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1063
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 05, 2005 - 11:19 am: |  
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They will grow smaller...
The top three market leaders (ANZ, WBC & SGB), ie, performance leaders and not capitalisation, are all behaving the same, I think they due for a drop - take some profit off the table if you want to play it safe.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 1074
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 05, 2005 - 11:36 am: |
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Agree HC,their dividend rate has to come into alignmemt at a Premium to Bonds,if only for the ol' Mum 'n' Dads.If they can't raise profits,raise payout ratio to maintain?
Price has to drop,right?
cheers HC,
jr
ps-Good,excellent work on the China/Japan/Asia nexus,events.I've a few basic points,where do you want them?Don't want to blot/blog your posts.Down in Silver adren junk,OK? by the end of the day,then.
no need to reply[NNtR] that's code!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1065
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 05, 2005 - 11:40 am: |
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Dr,
Go ahead and post where you want or they will become irrelevant elsewhere.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1080
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 06, 2005 - 05:14 pm: |
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A case of the "market" taking all the banks for a ride...
Question: in an environment that is "invest-oriented", do you expect to see such "phenomenon"?
Or do you see this as a "trader" behavior?
Now if you think this is how you'd like to trade these bank stocks, I'd like you to think further - the turnover in value term - NAB-$148mil, ANZ-$80mil, CBA-$99mil, WBC-$91mil... who the *&^^% has such money to trade these big stocks and move the index up and down like a YOYO?
Please Consider(just love this ole Mitsubishi commercial  )
... and don't let some renegade instos or fundies screw you around.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1188
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 05, 2005 - 12:52 pm: |
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Here comes the bad news...
NAB gets $245 million tax bill
May 5, 2005 - 10:35AM
National Australia Bank has been handed amended tax bills as part of its dispute with the tax office about certain deductions it has claimed over recent years.
NAB flagged in February last year that the tax office had sought to disallow interest deductions on exchangeable capital units (ExCaps).
NAB said the Australian Taxation Office had now given the bank amended assessments for the period from 2001 to 2003, worth $135 million in primary tax and $98 million in penalties.
The bank also received amended assessments for the years from 1998 to 2001 for $6 million in primary tax and interest and penalties of $6 million....
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1198
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 06, 2005 - 10:22 am: |
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Btw, I like to say it now, early and not late or in hindsight...
the banks are looking good now, but you know the interest rate hike, and the slow down in econ growth, the over-mortgaged home buyers and investors, plus the banks' aggressive move to low-doc (more like non-doc) loans... all these will have a cumulative effect on them banks.
All these factors will have a lagging impact and the problem they cause will not surface until years later - and when all the NPL (non-performing loan) begin to surface, you will be quite sorry if you don't take your profit and run.
Treat this as an early warning to those who intend and believe the banks are safe for the long haul multi-year investment. If you are a short term to mid term trade/investor, I reckon you can ignore this warning.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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oldwombat
Member
Username: oldwombat
Post Number: 598
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 06, 2005 - 10:34 am: |
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HC nice early call there........
for what it is worth I whacked SGB and ANZ in as a recommended short on Wednesday, up were d'big boys in shorts talk.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1228
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 09, 2005 - 11:07 pm: |
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Bluebird,
You got me here because my comment above made with a rather long term view with regard to the above reasons which potentially will have quite some negative impacts on their bottom lines. Checking through my notes, I found this in addition to the above... Tax ruling will have banks sweating on rates
By Duncan Hughes
March 17, 2005
A Tax Office ruling to allow Australian companies to borrow more cheaply overseas will increase pressure on domestic banks to offer more competitive rates.
Local companies seeking to tap the world's deepest capital markets will be a much more attractive target for major US and British banks, which are no longer encumbered by a punitive tax rate that made their products uncompetitive, according to finance experts.
The prospect of cheaper foreign funds is also expected to fuel explosive growth in the flow of foreign debt that in the two years to September 2004 grew by more than $100 billion to about $600 billion.
All these "influencing agents" are more of "fundamental" in nature so I think it will need time for them to really "show and tell". Currently, by looking at the bank charts, they are a mixed bunch, but generally they are holding well and other than NAB, most of them are near the "peak". I guess most holders are waiting for the fat dividend payout.
I think we will have a better idea after the divy x-date as well as after FYE. Currently I don't see them as "bad", but if I have any of them I would quite gladly take some profit at current level. (No! I am not asking you to do this. I am just saying if I have them. You have to decide for yourself).
Cheers.
ps: there were quite a bit of contrast among various banks in tackling the low-doc loans - WBC is staying away from it, while SGB is embracing it. So, we probably will have a good idea of the impact of these low-doc loans by watching how these two banks perform later.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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bluebird
Member
Username: bluebird
Post Number: 66
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, May 10, 2005 - 07:29 pm: |
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HC, I've decided to hold for the time being and maybe take some profit after 30th June. I know you are right about the loans there is huge competition between the banks at the moment. Hopefully we will get some warning when those chickens come home to roost.
Thanks
BB
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1324
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, June 06, 2005 - 10:46 am: |
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Big Four fight back on savings
*** interesting news, the banks are paying more for your deposits. It means they are facing some real and serious competition from the foreign banks. It also means there's a potential threat to their bottom line moving forward. It is also a question mark on their current stock pricing, being at one of their highest in history. What gives?
The above is the negative interpretation of the news.
The following are for the good news punters which you can see there are many in this forum...
Whoa! The BANKS are fighting Back! They are gonna win! They are gonna beat the foreigner intruders into pulps! And when they win, the stock price will be re-rated to another few notches high. Trust them! It's only 54 bucks or so for MBL, if you don't get in now you are gonna missed out. Don't miss out! You are in the market to make money and now it's one of them! Go on! Make their days! Make your days! Just buy the banks! You can't lose!
If Aussie Homeloan could only shave off 200 basis points from their housing loans after 10 years or so of digging at their heels, look at them now! They are still making heaps. So history will be repeated with the FD market, just rest assured. The banks will find a way to make more out of their customers. Now is just the beginning...
So listen to this good news, act now! Quick! Bla blah blah yada yade yadyayaya...
(Message edited by holycow on June 06, 2005)
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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bluebird
Member
Username: bluebird
Post Number: 103
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, June 06, 2005 - 06:36 pm: |
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HC, On 5th April in this thread you and jr advocated taking profits off the table before the banks dropped. Many brokers were saying the same thing.
Two months later most of the banks have maintained or improved their price and in addition some have paid a nice franked dividend and you are still saying they are going to drop.
I think most of the press still supports your position although the brokers have gone quiet which might mean something.
Do you think that the charts are showing weakness?
Regards, BB
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1328
Registered: 08-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, June 06, 2005 - 07:43 pm: |
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BB,
I am not so sure of what the brokers are saying except (from memory) in one report where a particular broker recommended overweighting on banks except NAB.
Frankly I think the Banks will have problem meeting the "analyst expectation" in the next few quarters assuming their current SP are holding. But then, you should know I have a negative bias in my market outlook here, so naturally I see the banks as being over-valued.
One of the thing I always do is scaling down my holding when I feel the sp has reached a level that I think is not going to have much room to move up and/or there's no outwardly positive earning forecast on the horizon - I take partial profit and leave some to ride the trend in case they still have legs.
Chartwise, I think most of the banks are looking decent with MBL looking particularly good. The banks action today kind of centered around MBL with the others going through some minor profit-taking. Most people are holding on to their bank shares, I believe; with the SGB holders holding out for their divy somewhere in June 16 (I think).
So keep an eye on that date since after which there won't be any more big divy payout to keep the punters interested in the banks. There may be some big movement around that time for all we know.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 1473
Registered: 03-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, June 06, 2005 - 08:19 pm: | | | | |
