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     holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 1109
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
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| | Sunday, April 10, 2005 - 11:45 pm: |  
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XDJ Weekly
1) the weekly chart shows XDJ has a good 22-month long uptrend and the bull is showing a little out of breath at the moment;
2) if you were to look at the trend line, it has been tested not less than 5 times and each time, it not only held its ground but sprung back and marches on.
3) so this time will it be the same? That the bull would hold its ground and then marches on? Right now it is sitting on support if you refer to the Daily Chart, both trend line and the 200s SMA are providing pretty good support, but it is weakening by checking on the RSI; on top of that, it is making the 3rd peak in its rally and lately the red candle days have gotten more frequent - chances are high that it will slip pass through the support.
4)... and when it does, a possible target of 2050 is where I think it will stop; the next few days will provide more clues if the index is likely to hold its ground, but I won't hold my breath waiting...
XDJ Daily
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2295
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| | Monday, June 26, 2006 - 09:24 pm: |
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1) if you hold JBH, you should watch this stock these few days, it seems the XDJ sector is not doing real well and with RCL getting a severe haircut today, JBH may be on the line of fire. All it needs is someone to start a rumour... taking profit is not a bad idea really.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2296
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| | Monday, June 26, 2006 - 09:27 pm: |
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XDJ daily+weekly
1) can't say XDJ is bullish. News wise, not glowing either: high gas price is killing household spending, interest rate hike on the horizon, etc. Long(er) term? No eye see!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2304
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| | Tuesday, June 27, 2006 - 04:42 pm: |
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Repco continues in reverse
Michael Evans, Sydney
June 27, 2006
REPCO shares slumped to less than half their issue price after the car parts retailer issued its second profit warning in two months, with investors questioning whether anyone will heed its call for a white knight.
The shares fell 28.5¢ to a record low of $1.275 yesterday after Repco said late on Friday that full-year pretax earnings would fall 19 per cent from last year. It also admitted it was considering opportunities for consolidation.
Repco, which was listed in 2003 at $2.65 by ABN Amro Rothschild and UBS, may now struggle to break even in the second half. The board is believed to be meeting this week.
The company is the latest discretionary retailer to warn it will not reach guidance this year, after profit warnings recently from furniture retailer Nick Scali, clothing and footwear chain Colorado Group, and accessories chain OrotonGroup.(... Beep! Alert!)
UBS analyst Andrew Perks questioned whether others would team with Repco.
"Given Repco's high gearing (net debt to equity of 138 per cent), we believe it would not be as attractive a potential consolidation opportunity as an ungeared company," he said.
"Its high gearing might also be a barrier to actively participating in industry consolidation, unless further equity is raised."
He forecast Repco's second-half net profit to be "just above break-even" at $1.4 million.
Citigroup analyst Julian Mulcahy dismissed the company's argument that high petrol prices and an interest rate rise hit consumer spending.
"There are three clear messages: Repco has no idea on numbers, the previous management team's growth strategy was seriously flawed, and the cost base as previously reported was aggressively understated," Mr Mulcahy said.
Former Repco boss Peter Mummery retired last month.
Mr Mulcahy said his confidence in Repco's new forecasts was "relatively low".
It is Repco's third profit warning for this financial year. Last August, it forecast "low double-digit sales growth and (pretax earnings) growth above sales growth in 2006".
In February, it massaged its pretax earnings growth to the "mid to high single digits" from last year's $82.4 million.
In April, it cut guidance to "around" $75 million. Last Friday, it said earnings would be "in the range" of $67-$69 million — before write-downs of about a further $7 million.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/
repco-continues-in-reverse/2006/06/26/1151174132436.html
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dug
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Username: dug
Post Number: 1214
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Tuesday, June 27, 2006 - 06:27 pm: |
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Now I remember a HC quote that went
"There can be NO Boom without Consumer Discrete involvement"
and for months now that quote has qualified any Boom that's gone down.
I believe in that Concept,HC.It's that pile of shop-keepers that RULE this Economy.Not floogers of Bread'n'Butter but shops selling d'Unnecessary like Plasma TV's,designer jeans,even Fancy Lacy Underwear[droooool]
Anyhow Holy Cow fancy shop-keepers buy Superannuation Products,Borrow Bucks for Fit-Out and Appartments.They holiday to get their head together,they[d'ShopKeepers]go on courses,EMPLOY up'ncomers and,just,well operate,are the BASE line of BUSINESS here in Oz[and pretty much EveryWhere]
HC if d'ShopKeepers go into PROOOOLOOOONGed HURT,well it's a Bear sign at the very least.
all i got to say at d'Mo.
cheers,
jr
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2307
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| | Tuesday, June 27, 2006 - 09:02 pm: |
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Dug,
Did I say that?  Wow!
Frankly the "current" (or the recent past?) world wide boom in commodities (and the Chinese/Japanese/Indian economies), in my view has a lot to do with the USA consumption. The US consumers in the past few years (even now) have been the engine that is pulling the global economy along.
It seems this is not the case with the Aussie econ? Most of the economic activities seem to have more to do with mining and infrastructure than with general consumer spending(?) If this is the case, can't imagine what will happen when the commodity boom dies down while the consumers continue with the current belt tightening.
I am with you on the bearish sign you are seeing. Bad news on the horizon I reckon.
Cheers.
ps: RCL, I reckon the (ex)management being from the "old school", ie, doing it through hard work and running the business like he is running the ole family outlets, got no idea what hit him and his business... with the sudden on rush of public money, I reckon he's got himself carried away and over extended and expanded. Ii will be interesting to check out a few old reports on RCL and see what the "analysts" are saying about his biz back then.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1217
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, June 27, 2006 - 11:30 pm: |
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You're getting addled,HC.
RCL repco is a long time front for Spivs and Venture Capitalists.It was a skid mark on Pacific Dunlop who incidentally also ran Pacific Brands way back last Century.
So Repco may be iconic but it's just a Ruse.
Now you're really thinking of that Bottler of a Company,SuperCheap[SUL].Do you remember how I'm SUL's No1 FAN?
well,they got management problems at the moment running with the Consume Discrete Difficulties BUT HC,the whisper is...
Well who owns their shops?Trust me it ain't Westfield and One Day,HC,when SUL goes out to Take-Over the car/grey nomad/caravan Industry,they'll do it OWNING most of their Sites.A subsidiary Property Trust,HC that's in d'FUTURE of Supercheap.Trust me!!
cheers,
jr
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2311
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Wednesday, June 28, 2006 - 12:06 am: |
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Dug,
Learned a word from you today - addled!
To muddle; confuse: "My brain is a bit addled by whiskey" Eugene O'Neill. See Synonyms at confuse.
.......:-}}}}{} (HC is confused and muddling...)
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2346
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Monday, July 03, 2006 - 01:05 pm: |
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... another one bites the dust
Monday July 3, 10:16 AM
7.24 pm Friday, June 30, Bad News from Gazal Corp
Friday was the last day of the month, the quarter and the financial year so its not unexpected that bad news is held back: and it was on Friday evening: three smallish companies delivered some mixed news for shareholders, starting with Gazal Corporation.
Gazal is a Sydney-based rag trader and it produced a very late update which revealed losses and a possible dividend cut after problems in the value of its Mambo business in the UK and Europe and write-downs that might see the company's 2006 final dividend cut.
...
Gazal already has form with downgrades; first half earnings after tax were off 20 per cent from the year before at $7.3 million. Sales were up two per cent at $120 million.
Now, a restructuring of its UK and Italian operations and an ending to the manufacturing of Mambo by the company in Europe is likely to cut "last year's restated AIFRS accounts by between 20 to 25 per cent".
This Gazal said "may result in a lower final dividend that last year's final" when the results are released on August 24.
...
The company imports, manufactures and distributes rag trade brands such as Van Heusen, Nautica, Calvin Klein, Lovable, Midford, Mambo and Bisley.
Friday evening's statement said that "following a major review" the company has "announced a major restructuring in relation to its overseas activities".
The company-owned operations in the UK and Europe which operate the Mambo brand, have "deteriorated, resulting in a trading loss".
As a result Gazal is negotiating to license the brand name rather than manufacture in Europe...
http://au.biz.yahoo.com//060703/27/saaf.html
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1237
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Monday, July 03, 2006 - 01:57 pm: |
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Have you,HC,got a take on "Dutch Disease"?
As you spend No Money on newspapers,you may not have heard of it.Seems when North Sea Oil/Gas was found,it was noticed that all investment/interest went to that Particular Sector and in Holland it was particularly noted how all other industries got ignored,no matter what they achieved.Share gains in Energy stocks were overwhelming 'discounted' by having Investment in ANY other sector/business.
Do you see the connection with Con Discrete being so in the RED and showing more signs of falling lower?Are the Tax Cuts really going to Help?
Anyhow HC,check up/catch on to the Dutch Disease!!Another for your Bear quiver?
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2347
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| | Monday, July 03, 2006 - 02:52 pm: |
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... Dutch disease explained
... bear disease definition - people who look like a bear, walk like a bear, dance like a bear, laugh like a bear and are extremely pessimistic about the stock market.
... HC the bear explained - a cow that looks like a bear, laughs like a bear but with arse that looks like a bull and walks like a bull - he is half bearish and half bullish depending on which "gap" is spruiking.
On Aussie con-dis, I think the consumers are being "done in" by the high petrol price and the fear of more interest rate hikes. On top of that many are still smarting from the property slump and are still paying very high mortgages. Some of these people may be smarting additionally from the current stock market's "small correction".
When market begins to turn down, it's the "irrational fear and panic" that is eating up all these "extra cash". Fear, like greed, is contagious.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2397
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| | Wednesday, July 12, 2006 - 02:17 pm: |
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