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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1110
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 11, 2005 - 12:27 am: |  
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MGW Weekly
MCGUIGAN ANNOUNCES PROFIT DOWNGRADE
McGuigan Simeon Wines Limited (“MGW”) today announced a profit downgrade for the current financial year ending June 30 2005. The anticipated year end outcome is now a net profit in the range $35 - $40 million. This would compare with a net profit of $40.2 million for last financial year.
The key factor influencing the change is the significant oversupply of grapes in the market which has severely affected bulk wine margins.
“Another major problem is the relatively high value of the Australian dollar compared to our major export markets. Some of our major competitors in the US and South America who make their sales in $US, are insulated from this effect,” McGuigan Simeon Chairman, David Clarke, said.
Mr Clarke said that the need for the downgrade had only just emerged. “The second half of the year is traditionally the period of higher income due to the seasonality of the business,” he said
1) 18 months' gain all drank up in 7 weeks, but looking closer, about 16 months hardwork was done in a single day! Just imagine the "ODDS" facing the "highflyers" - a case of "priced to perfection"? Holding on to such stocks can only mean one thing - be scared, be very very scared... 
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1111
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 11, 2005 - 12:29 am: |
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what the....?
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month
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HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1115
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 11, 2005 - 10:00 am: |
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Hi HC,
No mercy for underperformers!
PL
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 89
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 11, 2005 - 11:37 am: |
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Another one heading south,
mm
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 1129
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 11, 2005 - 10:26 pm: |
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David Jones,hc.
in my experience customers drop off Myers but don't shift from DJ's to myers.
it's a class thing,the unbothered by interest rates,price of petrol.Class as defined as having no mundane trouble,they shop DJ's.
besides it's con discrete,unlike your wine company which is food and beverage staple.Simeons is suffering the avocado effect?
cheers,
hc
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 123
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 09, 2005 - 09:07 pm: |
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HC
How many of these xdj threads are there?????
The macD is going down but the RSI looks OK ?
If history repeats we will have a rally.
The index chart is similar to BIL,AMP etc ,looks like it is coming from a low base.W pattern base.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1227
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 09, 2005 - 10:38 pm: |
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Mark,
RSI "runs" much faster than MACD, so if you are looking for early signal, RSI it is. I'd noticed what you are saying over the weekend, but at this moment, I think it's still a little early to come to any conclusion.
If you were to look at Jan '01 and Oct '01, they were actually intermediate bear rallies. Agree? Both signals were different from that of Mar '03 because signal in Mar '03 was generated from the valley (the real bottom!).
If you were to look at the signal now, which of these three earlier signals it resembles most? Look at the signal together with the actual candle chart as reference. (In fact the current signal is closer to Jan '01 in my view, but I am willing to let the market proves me wrong).
Here's a bit of observation - contain your "exuberance" man! Remember the tough part is the "psychological" side?
Next time when you feel excited, try this trick (I do it all the time) - take a deep breath through the nose, breath out sloooowly through the mouth, with the tip of your tongue touching the roof of your mouth just behind the teeth. Try to breathe out as slowly as possible and count from 1 to 10. Repeat this until your heartbeat is stabilised. (you have to be open minded on this one and trust me here).
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1240
Registered: 08-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Thursday, May 12, 2005 - 07:37 pm: |
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(ONE MAN'S OPINION... you are not to bet your life on it)
I did a quick review of this index and XSJ, I think I am going to stick my neck out again one more time... because I have been thinking for quite a while now - if I am holding a lot of $$$ and if I want to make some decent return which sector should I be loading in now? After going through every sector (for many times over since I created this thread), somehow I always come back to these two sectors - XDJ and XSJ. (Before that they included XFJ and XXJ, but since then both XFJ and XXJ have moved...)
These two sectors are the most "punished" sectors, ok, may be just the XDJ sector and not so much on XSJ. And these two sectors are two of the major sectors in ASX - if ASX were to show some recovery, these two have to come along or there won't enough shares to absorb the "sidelined $$$ waiting for opportunity to invest" as reported earlier on.
XDJ spells OPPORTUNITY as far as I am concerned. It fits the bill - there's maximum amount of FEAR on consumer spending at the moment, there has been absolute blood bath with many stocks on sales between 50 -100% discount, and many mark downs were totally irrational and fear driven.
If this is my thinking, I have a niggling feeling the fundies are seeing the same thing as I do (they got to be smarter than me!)... and there's early sign that some "TIH" are already in it accumulating in the quiet. Well, this is just my observation and my "gutfeel" - you can hammer me when the market proves me wrong later.
This is what I am suggesting (meaning I use my mouth, you use your hands, and when things go wrong - you get punished that's because you're the one that took action, not me - it's your responsibility I am talking here).
1) if you are holding any of this con-dis stocks and in this context I am referring to decent stock with decent earning. Decent means stocks that represent some kind of "under valuation" from the fundies' point of view, ok?
If you have them, I "suggest" you hold on to your stocks and tough it out - I know it's hard because the market could possibly go down further but I reckon you don't have much choice anyway - you are too late into the cycle to sell, your selling at this moment will only contribute to the worsening share price and enriching those who are accumulating. Fair comment?
2) I suggest too you should not "open" any new position - just manage your current crop of stocks. You have to wait for "real" evidence before you plunge your precious little $$$ one more time. This time you need to be convinced by the market and not your own opinion. Do not let despair take over your psyche now. If at all, this is the time you show your strength and resolves. Keeping your nerves is one of the strengths you need in a harsh market like this.
(The XDJ sector is forming a base slowly and painfully. In the last 10 sessions, it has been bouncing off the support line at around 2000 and it seems to be holding on. Unless the results in this sector are so far out that everyone is giving up on them, this support should hold. (if it doesn't, it means sh*t, and well, do what you think is necessary))
3) Get a sense of perspective and proportion - severe sickness requires much longer time to recover - there are at least two to three "time trials" for these sectors. The next two quarter's report and investors' response will be harsh if there's any hiccup - this is what I would do if I know I have a lot of $$$ and I can drive the price down to accumulate cheaper.
So, you need to prepare yourself the only thing that makes sense and provides confidence to you with these stocks that are facing trial - do your homework in FA now. Read what the company is saying, their hints on how they will fare with their on going sales and revenue, etc. Chances are, at this point they won't dare to bullsh*t anyone because any lie will be caught red-handed and will be punished severely. So the odds should be on the side of their numbers being right than being wrong.
There will not be any guarantee from them of course but I believe your bet on the company is probably the more favourable one. (I am using the word "bet" here because frankly I hate relying on what they "tell" me).
Be prepared for the numbers - work out some "what if" scenarios - with earning short fall by 5%, 10% 20% and try working out the "value" of the stock - you should hold on tight if your stocks are "undervalued" with the new number. But more importantly find out what is the possibility of the company to recover from the current slump - look into the future and do some sensible projection of the company outlook. (You may have to drop some from your holdings if they really are in the hopeless basket)
The bottom line is this - con-dis sector will recover, or, it has to recover or the Aussie economy is screwed. With still a decent economy on going, with a friendly budget and with some "conditioning" on price inflation, and some healing from their high mortgage instalment, people will spend. They need time to adjust their lifestyle to the harder environment but regardless, old habits die hard - they will spend. (or God has created women for nothing! Ok, ok, just joking, just joking...)
4) Moving forward - this is what I am "betting" on - the XDJ will either hold this level and rebound from here; OR it will drop lower to 1970 and find a new base there. If neither of these holds true, then I will hold cash and avoid the market for a while.
Anyway, 'tis just a thought and I hope I have not created a "false" picture to raise too much hope.
As usual, caveat emptor.
ps: written sometimes this morning but hesitant to post, anyway what the heck... also my view of
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1241
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 12, 2005 - 07:53 pm: |
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continue... also my view on the XAO today - I like the action I saw and I have a feeling the market may be "good" for some short term trades. Those shorties may want to look at their shorts and watch really closely.
I can see one of the main sector that is "turning hot" is the con-dis sector with some of its leaders getting some serious buying. If in the next few days such pattern is repeated I think I am gonna claim the big fellas are "feeding" in this sector. They are picking the leaders in this group alright.
Is there any possibility that his is just part of FYE window dressing activities? Time will tell.
Btw I am still watching 4009.6 for "proof of life" in the current bounce. Let's hope it can give every one a little surprise in the next couple of weeks.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 1340
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 13, 2005 - 10:26 am: |
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morning HC,
just read the briefing.have something for you and perhaps MM to consider[BTW NIX ME d'5*****]anyhow i see you point out the possibility arriving of going Short Term long in Con-Discrete,maybe etc etc.
I just wanted to emphasise the SHORT TERM because i have a feeling that a bounce up MAY encourage people [unnamed]to go 'Bugger s/t I want to be in at the bottom and I am and I'll hold now til at least my gains are CGT'
I think there's a problem in Con Discrete as yet unresolved and not even in the news.It's debt,that rubbish about Interest Free 36 months to buy a lounge suite and plasma TV.
You,HC,are probably aware that this scam operates on a basis of if you don't pay on the exact day required,interest is backdated to purchase date.This results in say a $10k purchase after 36 months being close to $20k debt,by a wave of compound 20+% interest.
Now i realise,people who 'do the right thing' get a sweet deal by this system,they don't pay interest BUT the dills get caught and the dills go under and the dills CAN'T BUY NOMORE.
Culling out Dills is a cumulative effect on the market,it leads eventually a very noticeable cut back in Sales until the new crop of Dills builds to a critical mass again.Dills are made by them perceiving that every thing is just Grand,like their house price is up so they 'treat'themselves,just a normal human reaction to Life's Short yet they come D'Dill.
Anyhow,i reckon you have to be mindful of such things as d'Dill factor so i wouldn't be in any hurry to use historical data of companies such as,say,Harvey Norman to make LONG TERM investment decisions til factors such as this are resolved.
I got anecdotal evidence on CML to watch out for,if anyone wants to know.
cheers,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1247
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 13, 2005 - 10:52 am: |
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Dr,
You are right on your view. In general, it's a good "thang" to look for stocks, in this case con-dis stocks that are showing a long base, where stock price has been moving side way for a while. This is simple from "psycho" point of view - people have begun to hesitate, reconsider their panic selling and realise they might have over done it.
Take for example, HVN, it has a rather sharp bounce and I don't think it has been through this "lateral reconsideration" by the buyers/sellers yet.
I am not saying right now people should jump into this sector. I am saying hold on, slow down, wait and see...
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1248
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 13, 2005 - 10:55 am: |
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ps: Dr, do me a favour and for a change - stop handing out 5-star, how about a lone-star for a change?
I just love the Texas lone star...
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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