THE MARKET, The Market, the market...

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holycow

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Post Number: 1116
Registered: 08-2004

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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 11:29 am:

thought I have a thread just to talk about the "market" both overseas and local, and the general on going thingy, gossips, rumours, scandals, affairs and the latest in table top dancing in your region...

I go first.

1) the current US market could be in for a very slow summer summer season if you note the declining volume and the "very low" volume of trade in both markets - the SPX may be just range bound between 1150-1200 for quite a while - this is about a 50-point or 4% range on the proviso that there's no earth shattering incident;

2) I am feeling a lot of lethargy and fatigue in the participants of the local asx market at the moment. The daily/weekly sizable swings in a way I believe is wearing down the punters and taking its toll - getting caught either way time and again would make everyone taking on extra caution and turning on the jittery hat and goggles watching out for sharks sneaking from behind... at least this is what I am feeling and doing now, so not sure about other supermen in this forum. May be they are faring much better than me and I don't speak for them since this is only my "personal" view.

For the less adaptable buy and holders and the FA'ers, I think they may be reaching a point of just closing their eyes and pretend the market is still zooming up like before and then take to the mountain or the beach... not for holiday but to cry their hearts out! :-) (cool it!, cool it... I say, this is just a tease...)

Ok, that's enough for the time being... until I hear more gossips, it's time out for me. Thank you for listening in, this is Radio Hotair 3HC in Melbourne, your current host is... naturally me, HC! Who else?

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

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Post Number: 1117
Registered: 08-2004

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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 11:58 am:

Referring to the following news... No! No! No! It's not time to buy property yet! It's still too early for interest rate to bite into those with supersize mortgage. It's still too early for them to feel the stress and fear. It's still too early for the banks to be overwhelmed by mortgage default at the moment. It's too early for the banks to feel the build up in all these bad loans yet.

Just wait. If properties are cheap now, wait longer, they will get cheaper.

~~~~~~~~~~~```

Buyers' market now for real estate
April 12, 2005

Home buyers who can handle a rise in interest rates could snatch a bargain as Australia's housing market softens, say real-estate analysts.

Australian Property Monitors (APM) research director Louis Christopher said auction clearance rates were down and it took longer to sell a property with some vendors forced to reduce their asking prices to make a sale, particularly in capital cities.

"Buyers who can book into their budgets another rate hike and are still feeling comfortable should probably have a sniff around because it is a buyers' market and you can get some decent value out there right now," Mr Christopher said.

But Mr Christopher also said many sellers were choosing to sit on the sidelines and await the next upturn.

In February, housing prices were discounted for sale by as much as 7.9 per cent in Sydney, with lesser falls in asking prices in other capitals.

This was in contrast to the discounting levels of only 4.5 to 5 per cent during the boom period, Mr Christopher said.

"This is not to say the median price has definitely fallen, but overall we think it does represent the fact that housing prices have been heading south," Mr Christopher said.

APM said if the Reserve Bank had raised interest rates last week, Sydney and Brisbane would have fared the worst.

"It wouldn't have been a pretty market if we'd had another rate hike," he said.

Peter Degotardi, chairman of Herron Todd White property advisers, said prices had flattened and listings volumes were down.

"It has been a sellers' market but the worm has turned and now it's a buyers' market," Mr Degotardi said.

Real Estate Institute of Australia president Ian Wells said the slow-down had been overdue, particularly in Sydney where prices had been on the rise for 10 to 12 years.

Buyers with enough cash could take advantage of the downturn.

"I think this is when people look for opportunities," Mr Wells said.

"It could be the first home buyer but they would want to have a reasonable deposit."

AAP

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

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Post Number: 1119
Registered: 08-2004

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Wednesday, April 13, 2005 - 09:05 am:

the US market last night...

1) after making that observation of the very low volume of trade in the market yesterday, the market shown a "dramatic" turn-around last night which kinda remind me of one of those ASX days where the index was just as "dramatic" except in the opposite direction... take a look:

SPX

AORD

2) the reason for the bounce in the US market last night? It seems whilst they were totally unimpressed by the blow out like this...
Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High in Feb.
Apr 12, 11:25 AM (ET), By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. trade deficit, aggravated by surging imports of oil and textiles, soared to an all-time high of $61.04 billion in February.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the February imbalance was up 4.3 percent from a $58.5 billion trade gap in January as a small $50 million rise in U.S. exports of goods and services was swamped by a $2.58 billion increase in imports... (just work out the ratio and be "impressed" - 50 milliion gain in exports measured against 2.58 billion gain in imports)

They were however chose to seek encouragement in Big Al's assurance to the law makers that "he will do them slowly..., I mean, he will raise interest rate with an eye on curbing trade deficit..."; and also, and as usual, the market "pretends" the oil is cheap again at around US51 since not too long ago it was selling at around 58! (ssshhhhh... please don't remind them about the US$25-28 "optimal" oil price not too long ago and spoil the party...)

3) locally? Well, there are still many people "wanting" and "hoping" to see the market going back to its trail-blazing days... may be today will be the day where they might just be able to "smell" a little of the diesel exhaust of the past, but really what matters is the shape of the market at the end of the day... which if they like $$$ they should keep an eye on the total value transacted recently because I think there's a big chunk been taken out of the market... that's what I'd seen and believe at least.

May be "they" are just waiting for the market to "give" them value again? Like some of the consumer discretionaries - they are plenty cheap at the moment but I don't shop so I won't have a clue of what is "in" and what is "out"! But I do believe at this point - the moment this sector moves again, that's when the market is ready to roll.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

Member

Post Number: 1120
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Wednesday, April 13, 2005 - 09:23 am:

Ramsay to buy Affinity Health for $1.4b
April 13, 2005 - 9:09AM

Ramsay Health Care Ltd is reportedly poised to buy Australia's biggest private hospital operator, Affinity Health, in a $1.4 billion deal that will end plans for one of the sharemarket's biggest floats this year.

I don't know about others - this is a very CLEAR indication that those who work in the IPO industry are not feeling "confident" of a big float such as this (like asking for the miserly sum of $1.4bil) - I take this to be a very big vote for "poor" market sentiment at the moment and moving forward... so please OPEN your eyes!

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

Member

Post Number: 1121
Registered: 08-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Wednesday, April 13, 2005 - 04:36 pm:

Somehow the following song keeps popping up in my head... I thought it describes the market very well these days - esp on the part where it says there's a time to plant and a time to reap - if you don't REAP what you had sowed, someone will RIP it off you! :-)

Just remember there's a season and a time for every purpose, under heaven - including the stock market!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Turn, turn, turn - Byrds

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to weep

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to build up,a time to break down
A time to dance, a time to mourn
A time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time of love, a time of hate
A time of war, a time of peace
A time you may embrace, a time to refrain from embracing

To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time for every purpose, under heaven

A time to gain, a time to lose
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time to love, a time to hate
A time for peace, I swear it’s not too late

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

oldwombat

Member

Post Number: 390
Registered: 04-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Friday, April 15, 2005 - 08:04 pm:

Ahh HC is happy he has achieved his aim. I WIN he is screamin. I WIN. I AM THE WINNER LA DI DA DI DA DA!!!!

OOOOOOOooooooh have I GOT NEWS FOR YOU BUDDY!!!!!!!!!
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.as ye sow so shall ye reap.
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there is not a secret in this world that is not known by another.

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enjoy the rest of your life......check your rear vision mirror sweetheart. Forever!!!!

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you are being WATCHED!!!!!!

dogalog

Member

Post Number: 1176
Registered: 03-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, April 15, 2005 - 08:21 pm:

wombat, edit...........................................................end
hc was only trying to point out FOLLY,and got it right.
Wombat,you'll be calling for the burning of witches next.
HC-turn,turn song is a direct lift from the bible,if you don't promote shorting the market,i think still i'll control Wombat.........,so forgive him,he's probably been drinking.
Hoping Hershy will come to chat with you soon,HC.
remember you don't have to be soooo polite,ok?
cheers,

(Message edited by dogalog on April 15, 2005)

d'jr
i don't scratch.

oldwombat

Member

Post Number: 392
Registered: 04-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Friday, April 15, 2005 - 08:54 pm:

Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.

Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog.

By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes.
Open, locks,
Whoever knocks!

How now, you secret, black and midnight hags!

Out, damned spot! out I say!

The devil damn thee black, thou cream-faced loon
Where gott'st thou that goose look?

Thou lily-livered boy.

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(Message edited by oldwombat on April 15, 2005)

(Message edited by oldwombat on April 15, 2005)

holycow

Member

Post Number: 1124
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, April 16, 2005 - 12:16 pm:

OW,

I don't get precisely what you are saying - say it again to my face - that you are picking a fight with me by responding here Yes or no.

If you are just having some kind of "friendly banters", well I am sorry because I am unable to see your joke.

Until then, this shall be my last direct post to you.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dogalog

Member

Post Number: 1181
Registered: 03-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, April 16, 2005 - 01:28 pm:

I just want to reassure you,HC that none of this is my doing,by plot or artifice.
The last wombat post has been edited of the Song lyrics to Disco Inferno.The remaining bit is,I think,from Macbeth.
I reckon that i'll leave woebat to provide any justifications,explanations because I don't know for sure where he's headed with this piffle.
I can send you the unedited email,i can fill in my edited blanks,if you weren't notified.
Don't get taken down,HC.In the end he'll either explain or disappear.
No Worries,HC.

cheers,

d'jr
i don't scratch.

holycow

Member

Post Number: 1126
Registered: 08-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Saturday, April 16, 2005 - 01:45 pm:

Dr,

Not at all. In my last PM to you... the caution still stands. In fact, it has arrived much earlier than my anticipation.

From this point on, I will refrain from putting out anymore "forecast" or projection in view of all the unnecessary mis-understanding unless absolutely necessary.

Btw, Can anyone see all these is not about WINNING??????? especially you, OW!

IT'S ABOUT GIVING YOU WARNING in advance, TAKE YOUR FREAKING PROFIT SO YOU CAN GO HOME AND SHOW OFF TO YOUR WIFE ON HOW CLEVER YOU ARE IN MAKING MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET!

...yes, it's all about being "good", about motherhood and apple-pie.

Sheeeesh!

I am out!

ps: Dr, should you need help, PM please.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

oldwombat

Member

Post Number: 393
Registered: 04-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Saturday, April 16, 2005 - 02:05 pm:

Pick a fight with you HC.........what for? You are a pawn, a puppet. You have been given an agenda to follow, as have a fine select group in the media. One cannot pick a fight with a stench. A stench is purely an indicator of something rotten in the general area.

I don't know who your masters are, they could be the maffia, the chinese, the christians, the witches, the yanks the greenies, pinkies, the arabs, the jews, the indians or a host of other messiahs. I know you probably don't know. The main people always lead from behind, so they can fade into the crowd,if it doesn't work out.

I don't have an argument with you as a person, other than the fact that you are easily led, prepared to swallow whatever is fed to you, know to stay within your alloted boundaries, like any other well trained beast. You are just there, teaching the other beasts how to react in any given situation.

I disapprove of market manipulators, small time or big time. I have been busy with a little twat in Long Term stocks under VTI Virotec. Manipulators hurt the innocent and the meek. They never create good. They come unstuck in the end because eventually people sit quietly and WATCH. They work out how you are doing it, then it is fairly easy to work out who you are [nix you HC, they know who you are already]then it's...... GOTCHA!!!!!!

I know you have been very busy creating that well orchestrated campaign of fear in the various chat rooms and tip sheets. You don't bother to read anyone else here, except for girlies, who get in your face, in your section.

You may get a better understanding from whence I come, if you peruse a post of mine in Bizarre World in Wombo's knose picks April 14th 2.16am.

If you choose not to read it, I really don't care.

I have heard of a thing called a 'Stalking Horse', always created a strange picture in my head .......tail stretched out, knees bent, nose pointed in the direction of the prey. Well I might start a new one.....called a stalking wombat......!!!!!

One of the beautys about Australia HC, is people aren't 'gagged' with what they want to say, as much as we might want to choke 'em sometimes!! Be prepared to have people point out the folly of some of your arguments. Maybe you might like to have a little think about why you are saying these things as well.

OW

p.s. Will someone please unhitch that poor old toad!!!!Hasn't he been doing enough ploughing?