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hilarius

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Sunday, April 17, 2005 - 08:03 am:

Just a drop in the ocean :-)

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

gazelle

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Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 12:31 pm:

Technical juncture point at 1575
420PPH 87 - 1950PPH = 1/4 S1 at 1575
492PPL 98 - 1950PPH = 1/4 S1 at 1578
1170PPH 02 - 1950PPH = 1/2 S1 at 1570
Average = 1574

Recent selloff has pullbacked to the 45 deg trendline in alignment with 1575 04 Support zone . The 52 week cycle has just been completed from May 04 low - 1584 low in conjunction with squaring of price and time co - ordinates
360pts/36 days .
on an interim time cycle we are 60 deg from 1730 PPH and approx 100 days from 1570PPH .
The last large move down of this magnitude in 02 ran down approx 350pts and our recent correction is proportional in range but not in time - 1575 is a key lv }}

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rederob

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Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 11:01 pm:

by crikey
i ran the gps over gazelle's numbers and was lost
i bounced off support (ie, bumped into a lamp post)
and then remembered Bro Hilarius's desire for BHP under $16
that was a month ago
and BHP jumped a grand 6% this week alone
subsuming WMC it becomes world's biggest miner, has world's largest reserves of uranium, second largest miner of copper and third largest miner of nickel (also has world's largest silver mine at Cannington in Qld)
once WMC is fully integrated i believe BHP will have a tilt at Woodside, and win - say 2007/8
am looking at this run north to breach $20 after annual report captures investor imaginations in a big way

william

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Tuesday, June 07, 2005 - 01:33 pm:

During this week BHP will pay out $5.5 billion in cash to accepting WMR shareholders. Where is this cash going to go? If you accept that a large portion of it will find its way back into the assets from which it came, then BHP is in for some "interesting trading". BHP trades approximately $350 million per day. Cash in the hands of ex-WMR shareholder will be equivalent to the total value of three weeks of BHP trading. The remaining WMR shareholders could add another 2 week to this.

How much will be reinvested in BHP? 20%? 50%? I dont know. The market will tell me during the next 10 trading days.

Watch BHP!

Regards William

rederob

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Tuesday, June 07, 2005 - 04:38 pm:

william
that's a wonderful spin on the cash side
so please keep us informed as she goes

gazelle
if you paint a picture (a CHART) then you won't need to dazzle me with 1000 words
are you able to oblige with either or both

anticipatory thanks

gazelle

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Tuesday, June 07, 2005 - 07:59 pm:

My ASX data ran out several weeks ago and I am in the process of organising another feed which I wont be rushing as Ive just shelled out on Mclarenn products leaving me flat broke - Sometimes I will look for primary and secondary time cycles to move into alignment which happens sometimes as each trading instrument will vibrate on its own frequency - In a TP setup there me be a two year - 1 year - 90 day - 45 day cycles all moving into alignment simultaneously which will provide us with a timing componet that must be viewed within the prevailing direction of the trend - this can get seriously complicated as there are cycles that operate on calender days and some occur on trading days 33 trading days = 45 calender days 66 trading days = 90 calender days and sometimes these cycles converge on a 1/2 price retracement and so fourth - it is an intersting system and sometimes there is just too much technical data to analyse so I have developed a checklist when skoping out setups .

BHP - going back in data we can understand the counters which is paramount in properly understanding and determining primary trend - on a weekly chrt the counter from mid 97 throught to 98 low was 434 points - the next counter in the primary cycle was the 02 high through to 03 low was 354 and the recent counter from 1958 high was 400 points which is pretty close to previous counters

BHP vibrates to a 45 degree cycle - from 830 PPL we ran 45 weeks into 1130 PPL and then 45 weeks into 1958 top - this geometric frequency is not solely indigenous to BHP as other instruments will run on these cycles also dependent upon prevailing price structure etc . The 45 deg cycle is proportinately relative and can occur in 45 day increments also - there are several time cycles evident on BHP but too detailed to discuss .

The blowoof move into 1958 top was on a 45 day cycle / 455 points which squares TP into the high
The following move down into 1556 was a 45 deg cycle as well .
1958 - 1755 = 203 1755 - 203 = 1552

Tried posting a chart - the first ones worked OK and scaling was not adjusted - may try again

Regards Gazelle

hilarius

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Wednesday, August 24, 2005 - 04:40 pm:

Good Afternoon

I am celebrating the first day of the rest of my life with a chart of one my favourite stocks

If I told you my price target by this time next year you would consider me naughty ... which of course I never am

It is just the sheer beauty of the trend that has me enthralled

Not to mention the fundamentals .... shhh ... they don't really matter ... because we all know that good fundamentals make no difference to trends .... don't we?

Blessings and Peace

Hilarius

bhp

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

eblode

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Friday, August 26, 2005 - 11:10 am:

Hilarius,
Blessings and Peace to you too.
You must of heard the saying "buy on rumour, sell on fact" Now why would BHP with such an outstanding earnings report be sold down to $19.90 only a few days after it hit over $21.30????
What is the logical answer or is the market simply illogical?
Peace be with you,
Eugenio

archer

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Friday, August 26, 2005 - 02:33 pm:

Everyone bought in anticipation of a good result
When the good result came out there was no-one left to buy
as all the money was spent so down it goes

chriso

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Friday, August 26, 2005 - 02:57 pm:

Now that the good result is out and everyone has done all their pre result buying and post result selling.It's done what trending shares do, go up and retrace back to test a support line or a trend line in the case of BHP.

Chris

eblode

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Friday, August 26, 2005 - 03:04 pm:

Truth is stranger than fiction.
Thanks Archer and Chris. For a moment there I thought I was going nuts. Anyway I back in the money with BHP.
Eugenio

susieq

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Friday, August 26, 2005 - 03:14 pm:

Don't think this move is over. BHP leads the market up and BHP will lead the market down into another correction. It is THE Key stock.

Think we will see $18.50 before it surpassess $22 IMHO. This stock has been in my long term portfolio since $8 mark and I expect it to rise even further.

BHP

Cheers

SusieQ

archer

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Friday, August 26, 2005 - 03:16 pm:

Do take note of the much increased volatility
Most often seen in forming tops
Respect that trendline

vermante

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Monday, September 05, 2005 - 06:39 pm:

BHP today ex dvd 19.20cts, Close -.37cts.

Signs of a weakening market?

Cheers

Vermante

hilarius

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Tuesday, January 10, 2006 - 10:47 am:

This morning BHP was forcefully sold down for the first 20 minutes towards $23.82

Now it is being bought strongly above $24.00

Convince me this was not manipulation

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hershy

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Friday, May 26, 2006 - 07:15 am:

I wish I had bough back in Jan.
Jumping in today with a buy stop.
My target is $36.
Optimistically, wave 1 of 5 impulsive bullish waves.

A gap up will leave me behind, an orderly march up will see me
as a shareholder.
I'll let you know how I go.
Good jump in futures in the US overnight bodes well.
For today, at least !

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

smallworld

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Friday, May 26, 2006 - 03:58 pm:

hershy,
It opened at 28.30 so its a large gap up.
you can always buy blt in the uk market when you're up. it's in CFD. Good luck.

hershy

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Saturday, May 27, 2006 - 07:51 am:

Hello smallworld
Yes, story of my life.
And an other opportunity out of my grasp.
Reminds me when I was a young lad chasing women.
The foxes were too fast but the dogs were always slow.
Drinking a few more glasses of beer fixed the problem.
This does not work with shares !!
BUT, there will be other opportunitities(sic).

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

eyes

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Saturday, May 27, 2006 - 10:34 am:

Hershy,

I do not think it's too late... Looking at Fibs figures. We can have the Bloody Mary once BHP hits 36.

Cheers, eyes

"The only way you can fail is to quit"

ingot54

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Tuesday, May 30, 2006 - 03:54 pm:

BHP volume today very light.

Around 6.4 mill

Trading only 25% of usual volume

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

ingot54

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Tuesday, May 30, 2006 - 05:16 pm:

Final Vol 7.2 mill.

What gives?

BHP_1

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

ingot54

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 09:34 am:

Current volatility difficult to trade, so I'm looking to exit, and come back in the spring, or whenever the world's biggest cowards stop shaking in their boots.

If oil goes up, the DOW shudders to a halt, and drops.

If oil goes down, the DOW shudders to a stop, and drops.

If oil does nothing, the DOW gets suspicious, and shudders to a stop, and drops.

What is annoying, is that while the greenback has taken its biggest one-day fall in 6 months, effectively giving RIO and BHP and the like a fortune - cream for jam - in exchange rates, yet both will get slaughtered on the open this morning.

Another buying opportunity?

Last time I looked, demand was still outstripping supply in just about everything, including hot air from the experts, preaching to the lemmings ready to short-sell anything that moves at the moment. Ridiculous.

Go figure - I can not.

NEW YORK - US stocks tumbled as higher crude oil prices and a disappointing sales report over the weekend from Wal-Mart raised concerns about corporate profits.
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, blamed higher gasoline prices and rising utility costs for holding back spending by its customers in May.
Its stock fell 2.7 per cent and weighed heavily on both the Dow average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
The US dollar staged its biggest one-day fall in six months against a basket of major currencies.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 184.18 points or 1.63 per cent to 11,094.43. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 20.28 points or 1.58 per cent to 1259.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 45.63 points or 2.06 per cent to 2164.74.

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

msparks

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 01:21 pm:

Hi Ivan
I think you should sell on up days and buy on down days perhaps if you can set stops tight, in case a down day becomes a DOWN bigtime the next day.

The dow might rebound tonight, who knows, and BHP could gap up again tomorrow.

Leverage is too hard to set stops and worry about normal volatility of a share movement, too stressful to try and be longer time unless you can get into profit quickly and use their money.

To position size with leverage to an acceptable dollar loss, means you cannot get the dollars into the trade to make the bucks.

It is hard to watch short term movements and be a long term trader.
If trading off weekly charts, do you need to watch daily ?

Just a few thoughts, if BHP cannot go up what hope the rest of the stocks.
They have it all , oil,uranium, etc .

Cheers

ingot54

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 08:35 pm:

Mark

When interest rates rise, it reduces the relative return from dividends, compared to what can be earned in cash, as you know.

Stocks paying a 5% annual dividend become less attractive, as banks offer 5.5%. In a word - yield. It's all about yield, as well as growth and franking credits.

It's that simple ... almost. It would be in normal times.

Once would expect the markets to factor in such things, and expect a small decline in growth, effectively boosting the PE ratio in order to remain competitive as an investment vehicle.

What we are seeing now is indecision.
What we see in trading equities today, is not normal.
We are seeing the results of greed and desperation, and increasingly so.

Looking at a chart of BHP right now, I am looking at a nervous market. Every day at the open, the price either gaps up, or gaps down. There is no continuity - traders are racing here and there, listening to the noise of Fundamental indicators, spooked by shadows.

"Oh! POO is increasing! Sell! Sell! Sell!"
"Oh! POO is decreasing! Sell! Sell! Sell!"
"Oh! POO is increasing! Buy! Buy! Buy!"
"Oh! This ... Oh! That ..."

What we see in Australia is a reaction to a ghost. There is nothing there.

It is gambling - pure and simple - accompanied by the fear that goes with the greed.

I am holding my position according to my rules, and will continue to do so. If I get an exit signal - I sell. My stops are set at $26.21

The Fundamentals are unchanged, but the punters blindly follow the lead of the blind.

The derivatives gamblers in the USA will once again wreck our market. They are becoming increasingly desperate to cover their positions, and it will all fold shortly, unless the rot stops.

I don't think they can end their addiction to leverage. The short-term traders will be the undoing of the status quo, and lead to one of the best buying opportunities since 1987 yet. There is some serious money at risk out there.

The market is hallucinating.

Baulking at shadows.

Tilting at the wind - (remember Sancho Panza and Don Quixote?)

And what you are suggesting , while it might be a way to trade, to my way of thinking, this would be over-trading. Trading just to be in the market. Not for me.

It is also a big gamble, under the current rabble of trading patterns.

My interpretation is that right now is not a good time to be entering the market. The right time to enter is a little way down the track yet. And buy-and-hold traders will reap the rewards of patience when the time comes.

As you know, my strategy is to buy on margin, and hold selected stocks for the long term, where possible.

I am overweight BHP right now - thus my focus on its recalcitrant behaviour in relation to what is occurring elsewhere.

My fear is that the current destabilisation will wreck not only the market, but vicariously, the economy.

Do you remember Charlton Heston's famous last words from "The Planet of the Apes?" (original version)

Just some thoughts!

BHP_1

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

eyes

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 08:35 pm:

BHP,

Blind Freddy is still in enforced. Just licking 100EMA

eyes

"The only way you can fail is to quit"

ingot54

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 09:01 pm:

Not sure about the BF set-up Eyes. I have never tried to understand this set-up.

But I see a failure of BHP to make a new high, and that is not good.

The way I read the market is that if it is not going to make new highs, (and I doubt there is much confidence out there pushing that idea) then it is pointless trading long positions until sentiment changes.

At the moment, anyone who has a big mouth is talking down the market. And all this while we are told the market has not yet reached "fair value" (see comments by Shane Oliver, and other respected commentators.)

So perhaps someone can tell me why, if the market has not reached fair value, is there so much nervousness out there?

It's not just BHP. It's not just commodities and resources. I have a watchlist of the 12 GICS indices. Every one was red today.

The FA of BHP has never been so good. My feeling is that soon we are going to see a big improvement in yield.

And that, to me, means that inflation is going to be a very, very serious concern. I have a feeling that this is the story we are going to hear.

At the moment, we are not hearing the story - we are still at the "Once upon a time..." part.

In such times, negative gearing in selected property once more comes into its own.

BHP_2

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

hershy

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 09:24 pm:

You paint too black a picture Ingot.You, who by removing 2 characters from your name could become a bank !
A new higher high does not need to be created in one swift move. In fact what I see is another opportunity.

I see a new low followed by higher highs and higher lows. I see a new 1-2-3 entry signal and as long as BHP stays above $27.45 I see a bullish picture. My contingency buy is still sitting unfilled at $27.86 and perhaps tomorrow it may get exercised.

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

julles

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 09:25 pm:

Um, I hear your pain and anxiety Ingot and it pains me to Hear you this way.

Maybe your long term strategy needs tweeking? I don't have much money in the market at all but if I had lot's like I suspect a lot of you do. I would have sold most yesterday or the week before when support lines were broken, on the principle that the volume wasn't enough in this recent rise.

Looking at the big picture the sell's have increased in the last half hour on the Dow and I believe it to be so here.

Support Resistance Volume .. All are important and the Dow is resting on crucial support at the moment.

Good Luck.

At present we all need it. Julles

julles

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 09:38 pm:

A good map there Hershy, I thought about that too and decided to wait on the sidelines till tomorrow, I'm looking at a June 29 $30.00 Call

If thing's work out I'll be entering on your support line there. Confirmation will be if plenty of buy's an volume pick up on the one minute/ five minute chart.

Good luck to you all. Julles

ingot54

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 09:54 pm:

Hershy - I liked the post about the mogesekelie - you should have run with it

In my world, Hershy, I AM THE BANK! I am the CFO, and I have three other stakeholders - all with blank cheques, an no one keeping records of accounts. Wouldn't have it any other way!

I realise there is always another day, but as Julles points out, the "pain and anxiety" between the lines is more exasperation and frustration.

After 7 months on the sidelines, I re-entered trading activity, only to run smack-bang into an even bigger correction!

What did I learn?

How to manage my a/c and I am happy to say, the strategy is working as planned. But the trade has not gone well, although it has not yet run through its triggers. My exposure is only 20% of my a/c - very aggressive I might add, in your terms, but within my portfolio heat allowance.

If BHopeP can't be stable, then it's time to take a break.

I am really venting at the dipsticks with the mega-bucks who are overheating the boiler with derivatives exposure.

I hope they get their "mogesekelies" seriously snipped!

I am hoping you guys are right - and I will use the occasion to liquidate and go on a holiday.

Thanks for your thoughts , Julles. Really appreciated.

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

macka

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 11:23 pm:

Ingot

I always love your post and in total they portray you as an admirable person.

And I add that I regard BHP as one of the world's greatest companies and one that all Australians should be proud of including the fact that it's world headquarters is in the most liveable city in the world.

But the reality is the reality. We need to react to what the market is doing not what we wish the market would do.

It is not a place for emotion and frustration but it is a place for analysis and logic.

As I have tried to make the point so many times of late a market that increases 80 plus % over three year is neither sustainable nor desirable. The absence of a solid correction or retracement is the worst thing that can happen to the current market. The only other alternative at some time is a larger correction / crash ?.

These comments are not meant to be smartxxse comments but as one who's primary objective is preservation of capital.

So what would I do now with BHP?. I would sit on the sidelines and wait for a clearer sense of direction. And regardless I would not short it. Shorting is for fundamently not so strong stocks. Shorting any of the ASX50 stocks is a difficult strategy. They can quickly bite you in the thingo.

Regards....macka..

(Message edited by macka on May 31, 2006)

(Message edited by macka on May 31, 2006)

(Message edited by macka on May 31, 2006)

peterloh

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Wednesday, May 31, 2006 - 11:36 pm:

ingot,

The bull climbs a wall of worries.You should be aware that it is not often that we can buy at the bottom and sell at the top.One rule, I use for analysis is to decide what my down side risk and what my upside risk is.Having decided on that I will go ahead and do what I have to do, knowing what the worst scenario is and what I do expect in return.What I don't do is buy high and sell higher. I rather buy them low so that I can understand what the downside risk is and then what do I expect in return. If my upside risk is 50% in expectation, I can afford the 5 to 10% downside risk.This only applies to my long term investment.For the shorter term trade, I have no problem with buying high and selling higher, but everything I do is quick smart, I cannot expose my risk knowing that I have paid a high price for what I bought.Also definitely not in a volatile market.If you use CFD's then your profitability is multiply by the quantity of leverage you use.In CFDs, if your particular share drop 5% and your leverage is 5 times, then your actual loss is 25%, it also works the other way with your profit.

regards

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

ingot54

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Thursday, June 01, 2006 - 12:06 am:

Macka and Peter

Thanks for your kind comments and advice. Much appreciated and respected.

When I entered the trade (I actually bought two parcels) I succumbed to the 1-2-3 bull-trap, and did so with an acceptable risk in the trade. I am still content with the risk aspect, and the fact that the trade still has a chance of some success.

My frustration stems from the see-sawing nature of sentiment, when nothing has really changed.

There must be plenty like me who are fed up, and will exit at first opportunity.

I certainly don't mind holding for long term while the stock gathers support and momentum, even with CFD's. But this activity is just irrational - there are some crazies getting around with too much money!

You can't build in such volatility factors to a plan. If so, might as well turn to day-trading, because at the moment, day-traders must be having a field day!

My error was in entering the market at all. I originally exited my first position in BHP and KZl on 15th May, with a tiny loss, when it became apparent a correction was occurring. I exited before my stop was hit.

At that point, I should have put my money back in the bank, and gone to the library! But As BHP became "value" I re-entered - looking for a long-term return to "fair value" as the iron-ore price became binding with China, and the Uranium debate/discussion begins anew in Australia.

I still hold the "value" view, but don't have the patience right now with the market.

I think I need time out to regain perspective, and rid myself of the emotional baggage. Strange how I thought I had this mechanical system all worked out, but when conditions change, the frustration creeps in.

It should not be so with a trading plan.

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

peterloh

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Thursday, June 01, 2006 - 12:31 am:

Ingot,

Your quest for improvement in your trade is an asset and I have no doubt you will find the right strategy that you will be comfortable with in the future.I think DOW Industrial over did it yesterday.We will have a better day tomorrow, perhaps you should think what you would do tomorrow.Bond is steady tonight which is good for equities.I agree with Macka, BHP is a good share and also it is risky to short in a bull market except on very weak shares.

Good luck to your trade.

ingot54

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Thursday, June 01, 2006 - 12:51 am:

Thanks Peter. My rantings must seem a bit unstable at times, but I enjoy the markets passionately (if you didn't know) and your words "quest for improvement in your trade" is how my mind works.

I think all serious traders have either arrived at a good workable strategy, or are like me, very close to settling on their plan. I know good traders who are still refining their plan.

I think another problem is that I want to prove my strategy is effective to myself, after nutting through the plan for so long.

It's like a kid with a new bike - he can't wait to road test it because he waited so long for his birthday. But the day he gets the bike, it is pouring rain!

By the way - I have commenced another thread for the "3 Thrillers for June" comp. You might like to post your charts there when you get time tomorrow, instead of on the old thread for May.

Congratulations on having the highest aggregate percentage increase in your three selections for May.

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

hershy

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Thursday, June 01, 2006 - 07:49 am:

Judging by last night's efforts of the DOW, I don't expect my order to be filled but BHP should continue northwards giving you ING hope.
Good luck.

The story I pulled but Ingot just caught refers to the BF gap that Eyes mentioned above.
In my younger days I spent a year in a small town Germany called Reutlingen in Schwaben, the state east of Bavaria and yes, they do drink their beer warm in the winter.
Yah Yah !!
Anyway, the Schwabs have an expression they use when referring to minute sizes. the spelling may be incorrect but the saying is "Moggesekeli" and means "Mosquito testicle sacks".
I think the BF gap is a Moggesekeli !!

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

tony_m

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Thursday, June 01, 2006 - 08:19 am:

Using BHP as an example, if the day traders are making money it would have to be by mostly taking a punt on the direction of the market for the following day.

The intensity of the moves is leading to gaps on open which in popular stocks like BHP is often the bulk of the move for the day, at least for the period since the spot metal prices took off in March/April.

I guess if one is good at reading the tea leaves late in our trading day with the US futures and the metals spot price moves and got it right more than wrong then with leverage some money could be made (or lost if you dont know what you are doing).

My guess is that is what is going on right now with a lot of the CFD players.

Tony_M

ingot54

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Thursday, June 01, 2006 - 06:48 pm:

True to recent form today - gap up on open, and that's where it finished. Traded higher through the day, but after 2pm began to ease right back to the opening quote.

Some good news on the Fundamental front:

SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - BHP Billiton Ltd is expected to reveal a major increase in the resource estimate at it Olympic Dam copper/uranium orebody in South Australia, reported the Age newspaper without citing sources.

The rest of the article is worth a read, and definitely encourages the buy-and-hold strategy.

BHP has doubled in the past 12 months. Will it/can it double again in 12 months?

Depending on your assessment, how will you feel in 12 months about your investment decisions today? Personally, I think the Big Australian needs to be the backbone of a solid portfolio, and I am aiming to do just that.

Now to shake off the volatility!

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

tony_m

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Thursday, June 01, 2006 - 10:49 pm:

Rocky ride tomorrow unless spot price picks up overnight. Price has fallen to $US3.39/lb as I write this (10.46PM) and zinc is down too. Most recent resistance was $US3.40 on 19th May when the trouble started. Here we go again....Tony_M

hershy

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Friday, June 02, 2006 - 07:28 am:

As this thread is in the long term area I had a look at a weekly chart of BHP on the London market.
I see a positive picture. We had a low pivot point last week followed by a gap up open this week. Granted the week has been a bit of a dog but with one day to go, I see an inside bar which is good. Even if the week closes at last week's open, the signal produced is of a two bar reversal. On a weekly chart this pattern has a high probability ratio of a bullish move of at least 20%.

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Thursday, June 08, 2006 - 09:56 pm:

Don't feel quite so bullish now.
I have actually lowered my bid to $27.01 and it got executed today.
Oh the pain, the pain..............
But I still think it's a good buy.
BHP !!!

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

msparks

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Friday, June 09, 2006 - 10:51 pm:

Perhaps a longer term look puts things in perspective a little better.
Show me where the buy signal was after the one at around the $26.50 level in Mar 06???
To speculate i would say, we have seen the bottom of this correction in BHP today TA wise but confirmation is needed.

If only the fib.. was available.

Seems it is all about where to start the fib.. lines as to how they match up with the corrections.

Does anyone have a method on a starting point ?

Suemac - the fibonacci expert ? h.e..l...p

Should i have started in 03 at the low ?

Chart is looking good now !

hershy

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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 08:34 am:

Hey Sparkey,
Interesting to read a suggestion from a broker that BHP has heaps more growth in it while RIO appears to have none or at least a lot less that the mighty B.
Using something I have just seen regarding option plays - not connected to this chart but adapting the idea, I see two lines in the sand here.
Line A is obviously the downtrend resistence line while line B has the potential to become the uptrend support line. The area between these lines and to the right of the point where the lines intersect is the "wilderness". This area is well suited for short term trades like that practiced by the "darksiders" while the areas outside the lines then become more the trend traders' haven.

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

vermante

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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 09:54 am:

Perhaps a bottom has been set - Nice bounce off the trend line .

Cheers

Vermante

moleman

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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 11:55 am:

Everyone's saying BHP's a bargain - once it stops falling.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2006/06/10/1149815358294.html

cheers

MM

eyes

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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 12:24 pm:

Bulls divergence between chart and RSI.

Cheers, eyes

"The only way you can fail is to quit"

tryhay

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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 09:45 pm:

Seems to be general consensus that BHP is a clear buy - but there does not seem to be general agreement on timing.

FWIW the daily chart below shows the apparent next levels of support ~ looking for between $25 & $26 as the ideal buy

Daily

UBS has buy rating on BHP Billiton Limited (26/May Price target A$38.00/US$57.51); and some others to keep in the back pocket:
Rio Tinto Limited (June Price target$100.00/US$298.34); and
Zinifex Limited (June Price target A$14.50/US$11.07
Oxiana Limited has not been reviewed since April ~ it will shorely be a buy as well

Mark

eyes

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Saturday, June 17, 2006 - 10:32 am:

BHP looks top dollar on weekly chart. Fib figures suggest that secondary correction is over..?

Down trend stopped at 60.8% painting light blue hammer giving a buy signal. Above average volume confirms that. Mind you - protect yourself with tight stop loss.

Cheers,eyes

"The only way you can fail is to quit"

tryhay

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Sunday, June 18, 2006 - 08:49 am:

Picture of volatility here. I see some recent resistance that is likely to push the SP lower ~ perhaps $23 is a better value to start buying in. $20 would be better but how real is that ??

Daily chart

Sufficient to say I think there is more downside to come

(Message edited by tryhay on June 18, 2006)

msparks

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Sunday, June 18, 2006 - 12:31 pm:

Hi Tryhay
Just a thought.

And if you are wrong you may NOT get another chance to get on BHP because it could be $30 plus dollars again by the end of the week ?

Everyone has a BUY on BHP,RIO etc, if they keep falling we are into CRASH senario and the world liquidity problems will wipe us all out, except maybe Archer.

Unemployment is good, interest rates are low, demand for resources is unprecedented, asia is biulding a large middle class consumer so demand is still going to be there,i think BHP and a few others are about fair value UNLESS a financial world wide disaster is brewing.
They are a lot cheaper than they were a week ago and people were busting their balls to buy them then.

Cheers

tryhay

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Sunday, June 18, 2006 - 04:39 pm:

Hi Msparks

You could just have a valid point. And what is more good luck to you BHP is infact $30.00 by Friday. I do not believe it will be (or if it is it aint likely to stay there over July) ~

That is why each must do his/her own research and be comfortable with the trading plan.

There is nothing wrong with proposing hypothesis and the antithesis ~ particularly when the synthesis of both is normally closer to the truth.

Enjoy your posts Msparks.

Mark

eyes

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Sunday, June 18, 2006 - 05:45 pm:

This is a BHP 5 minute / 1 day chart. It clearly shows buying support between 3pm to 4pm.

Cheers, eyes

"The only way you can fail is to quit"

hershy

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Sunday, June 18, 2006 - 06:40 pm:

A bit late with the Fibonacci
1st chart last uptrend leg with bearish correction.

2nd chart last down trend leg with bullish correction.

Eyes, that BHP intraday high would look better if the last sale had been at at the intraday high.
You know that I hold and that I am bullish long term. But not so sure now is the time for breakout - but wish it were.
Technically speaking a breakout would need to be above $29.52.

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

eyes

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Sunday, June 18, 2006 - 07:00 pm:

A lot will depend on the US market. I expect XAO to tread water tomorrow or slightly pull back and the same for BHP.

My target still remains 36 plus. And bloody mary on you Hershy...

eyes

"The only way you can fail is to quit"

ingot54

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Friday, October 13, 2006 - 03:46 pm:

Time to revisit this thread.

The shorts are covering now.

Some time ago, Canam (from Canada I think) posted on one of the Indicator links (again, I think) that the best time to go "LONG" is when the 4-period WEEKLY Commodity Channel Indicator, and the 4-period Detrended Price Oscillator BOTH cross the zero line to the upside TOGETHER.

It's time! (They did not cross together - the CCI actually crossed one week ago)

BHP_1

Keep Smiling

Trading style: CFD's predominantly long term.

tony_m

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Friday, October 13, 2006 - 05:43 pm:

Another but longer term view with log chart. The long term uptrend of BHP (I hold long term) looks to me to be essentially intact and the pennant formation looks to be coming to the pointy end.

The FA is excellent with return on equity of 56%, return on assets of 28.3%, PE below industry average and forecast earnings growth of 33%. On top of that BHP is sitting on an extremely large producing uranium deposit at Olympic Dam which is still being evaluated and could be upgraded.

The share price until recently IMO has been captive to the copper spot price so the shorter term traders have been driving a lot of the price action but that cant go on forever. My view is that it has been oversold along with a lot of other top drawer stocks like WOR and RIN (I also hold both).

The one proviso would be a serious downturn in metals prices although not evident at this point with demand holding up but always a risk to be considered.

Tony_M
BHP

ingot54

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Saturday, October 14, 2006 - 10:18 pm:

Fundamentally, BHP seems to be more resilient to "world events" lately.

Gone are the nerves associated with every cough from the Fed Reserve.

Inflation ... what's that?
Rising oil prices ... phuh!
Base metals wobbles ... nah!
Rising interest rates ... garn!

Not too many weeks ago I was lamenting the gap-ups/downs associated with what I called "gambling" by speculative interests.

If I am feeling confident, I can assure you that something must be happening with market confidence the world over.

I had a buy target for $25.90 for BHP, and I see you have drawn the line at around $27 to confirm a breakout, Tony. Judging by the look of the XJO my assessment is that this target will be hit sooner rather than later.

Finally!

Keep Smiling

Trading style: CFD's predominantly long term.

hershy

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Sunday, October 15, 2006 - 09:11 am:

Hey Ivan,
I've been in and out of BHP this year and it has made me some profits. I got back in at $27 in September and have been holding ever since. I know it is not prudent but from the above mentioned profits I was still in the money , so to speak even when BHP was trading at $24.06.
So Tony's breakout at $27 is my salvation from the present situation.
Having said that though let me point out that the one hour chart of BHP on the LSE is going above and beyond a H & S target at 986 with the magic 1000 now merely two quid away.

Another look shows a distance of £27 between the last two consolidation areas which would point to £1025 as the next target.

I watch the LSE chart as that's where most of BHP shares are traded and it seems to be setting the pace that the ASX moves follow.

Also worth noting are two things:
The trendline break out Friday and
the horizontal volume bars which show that since March more BHP shares have been traded between 994 and 1014 than anu other level. In other words we are in the midst of what until Friday was the heaviest ovearhead resistance. Once past here, barring any major world events I would expect to see BHP head towards previous lofty levels.
Then again, the bottom of the wedge may well be re-visted first though that would be a surprise..

...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

msparks

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Sunday, October 15, 2006 - 09:53 pm:

Isn't it always the way Ivan.
Just when the confidence builds up and i am ready to buy , it is really time to sell ?

Or, when i finally relent and decide to sell, it was really time to buy more ?

The emotional opposites to the trading world psychology.

I, like Hershy, have watched BHP slide from my $27 purchase, and now, NOT WHEN IT WAS $24 SOMETHING,want to buy some more. Dug would be disgusted.(sheep)

Go Figure

coyotte

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Sunday, April 13, 2008 - 03:00 am:

could be of interest .
not saying it will not go higher BUT!

on a weekly over the last 5 years every GAP has eventually been filled --this week filled the Dec 24 Gap at $41.61 and left a GAP at $38.83 to be filled .

.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

trader_10

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 01:49 pm:

With the news in IRON ORE new price hike of 85% acceptance from the Chinese and deals to come this gem is getting possibly ready to re-test 45.18's from April and break the highest from October last year 47.70's :-)