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vermante

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Post Number: 285
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Thursday, May 05, 2005 - 10:45 am:

Ready To Reverse? - Triple Bottom -Risk /Reward attractive

Cheers

Vermante

archer

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Friday, May 06, 2005 - 09:57 am:

It needs to build a base after a fall like that
Probably 6-8 weeks like the last 2 bases

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vermante

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Friday, May 06, 2005 - 11:02 am:

AUO another example of a triple bottom

It appears some times it takes time to build a base , sometimes it does not. Refer Bulkowski for additional identification guide lines .
Market sentiment probably the key. A bit negative at the moment . I have taken a aggressive stance , minimising risk , with a limited position size , looking to add if view point is proved correct.

According to Bulkowski, it is a scarce formation.

Cheers

Vermante

(Message edited by vermante on May 06, 2005)

archer

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Friday, May 06, 2005 - 11:17 am:

Well that is aggressive
Keep those stops tight as i think the tax loss selling
could be horrendous in NLX this year
Everyone who has bought this stock in the last 2 years
now has to wear a snorkel and thats a lot of volume

nightstalker

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Friday, May 06, 2005 - 06:18 pm:

Presumably the snorkel would be made out of Nylex garden hose....;)

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

archer

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Friday, May 06, 2005 - 06:44 pm:

HAHAHAHAH
Seriously though we have a similar scenario as the 2 months
preceding the 2002 tax loss selling
I was well prepared for that and managed to get an entry at
16c on 27-6-02
I have no idea if it plays out but as you can see from the
rally following it will be worth watching very carefully
nlx

archer

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Tuesday, May 31, 2005 - 05:48 pm:

It appears we need one more wave down to complete the
pattern and 5 waves down
History-repeat

vermante

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Wednesday, June 08, 2005 - 05:10 pm:

Break-out with volume

Cheers

Vermante

slick007

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Wednesday, June 08, 2005 - 07:18 pm:

Not much action today until the AGM announcements made it to the market... then volume improved and went above 28c for the first time in a while

It then reached 28.5c so I reckon if it gets to 30c tomorrow on improved volume it's gonna go a bit crazy.

I'll be watching...

oldwombat

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Thursday, June 09, 2005 - 01:39 am:

Yes my dears, I think you are right to be watching this one.

Cheers
OW

slick007

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Friday, June 10, 2005 - 04:38 pm:

nice day for NLX - with 29c finally reached after over a month and most importantly to confirm the move up will continue, volume was over 7 million

holding NLX :-)

wjbennet

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Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 09:11 am:

Hi All
Most of you could be aware of this but for any who arn't. NLX has an offer out [to existing share holders] to take up extra shares at .27c. This offer closes on the 14-6-05 with the shares to trade in july. I just thought i would mention it as i did not see it in the thread. I hold nlx and have taken up the offer.
regards
wjb

slick007

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Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 10:50 am:

I'm aware of it and have taken up the offer too but it's effectively too late for anyone to accept the offer now. Acceptance forms must reach registry (Melbourne GPO Box) before 5pm on Tuesday with Monday being a public holiday. I have a feeling that due to this public holiday a lot of people are gonna get caught out and therefore the acceptance forms will not make it in time. Perhaps they'll extend it a couple of days...

magneto

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Friday, June 24, 2005 - 09:54 am:

The offer (now closed) and the FY tax loss selling are probably holding this one down to the 0.27ish mark. Once the FY is over, history just might repeat itself!.

Holding and looking to the new FY.

Sincerely,
Mag

magneto

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Saturday, June 25, 2005 - 08:47 am:

Wow, massive selling by the instos. Looking on the brighter side, those who missed out on the spp, can get it at a discount.

Good weekend all.

Sincerely,
Mag

vermante

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Saturday, June 25, 2005 - 09:34 am:

Trend-line break , negative market ,I think better out than in . Wait for market conditions to improve .

Cheers

Vermante

archer

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Saturday, June 25, 2005 - 12:31 pm:

I've been expecting this selling
Long term triple bottom but i'm expecting a false break
Check the history-If you buy the last few days of the
financial year you can make very good money
Its worked the last 3 years and i expect this year to be
the same
All the best
---Archer---

slick007

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Monday, June 27, 2005 - 12:00 pm:

I wasnt expecting a drop to 25c with biggest volumes in the last 12 months...

daveb

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Monday, June 27, 2005 - 08:54 pm:

I didn't expect the fall either, in fact I expected > 30c by now.

I sold half my holding @ 26c on Thursday. Have know idea where it's going now but generally when I sell the price climbs.

busterkins

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Tuesday, June 28, 2005 - 02:10 pm:

DIVERSIFIED manufacturer Nylex says a broker briefing may have sparked the heavy selling that sent its shares lower last week.

Nylex received a "please explain" letter from the Australian Stock Exchange after its shares dropped from 28.5c to 25c in heavy trading on Friday, despite the absence of new announcements from the company.

In its response, Nylex said it was not aware of any information that had not been announced that could have sparked the trading.

But it said managing director Glen Casey had delivered a presentation to Citigroup on Thursday afternoon, which may have caused the selling.

The company said that, during the presentation, Mr Casey was asked if the company's earnings before interest, tax and amortisation for 2005-06 would be about $46 million.

Mr Casey told Citigroup this projection had never been made by the company and was not supported by present information.

"He repeated that at this stage the company was not prepared to go beyond stating that its EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) for the year ending June 2005 would be in the range of $33million to $35 million," the company said.

Nylex said Citicorp Nominees held 13.87 million shares in Nylex "and the company assumes these have been divested". "The company assumes that this possible large divestment by Citicorp Nominees ... has led to other divestments."

Nylex said the share price movement occurred alongside a fall in the All Ordinaries index and possible "year-end tax sales". Trading volumes in Nylex were back to normal levels yesterday and its shares closed down 0.5c at 26c.

AAP

archer

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Wednesday, June 29, 2005 - 04:11 pm:

Picked up half on the close at 25c
Other half tomorrow

vermante

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Wednesday, June 29, 2005 - 04:41 pm:

According to Bulkowski, you are trading with the odds well in your favour , almost a certainty

Cheers

Vermante

daves

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Wednesday, June 29, 2005 - 11:51 pm:

Have been watching NLX for a similar entry opportunity. Have to say that the P & F worries me a bit though.

Dave NLX P&F Chart

magneto

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Friday, July 01, 2005 - 05:19 pm:

Whilst it is early days yet, 0.26 may be holding. Also, the latest MACD divergence is positive.

Have a good weekend all.

Sincerely,
Mag

archer

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Friday, July 01, 2005 - 07:01 pm:

Picked up last half at 26
If history is any guide 25 was the bottom

greatdane

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Friday, July 01, 2005 - 07:24 pm:

Archer, you are in good company buying Nylex at these levels.
One of the directors just forked out $500K for 1,800,000 NLX shares @ $0.28 per share.
On market trade.

Regards, GreatDane

elisabeth

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Tuesday, July 05, 2005 - 06:19 am:

Divergence - can anyone advise?

NLX weekly has a very strong negative MACD divergence and the daily has a very strong positive divergence.

Does one override the other or are the charts telling me that NLX may have a short term recovery, but longer term should be viewed with great caution.

How long is the LT signal valid - is looking back more than 12 months too long?

NLX has been ranging for the last 2 years - are divergence signals valid in ranges or must the stock be trending? (I think I may have answered my questions here…..)

Not holding currently.
Elisabeth

nightstalker

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Tuesday, July 05, 2005 - 06:54 am:

Hi Elisabeth :-)

As a fan of divergences, but not necessarily an expert on them, I'll throw in my 2 cents worth if you like.

My view is that divergences mainly apply in trending situations, and should correlate in time. In other words, the Price should be trending up while the troughs of the MACD Histo should be lower, IN THE SAME TIMEFRAME. In your top chart above, the second big trough in the MACD Histo occurs AFTER the short uptrend - in fact it's not really a divergence - it is only reflecting the big dip in the price action which is directly above it on the chart. On the other hand, the two PEAKS of the MACD Hist in the middle, occur DURING the uptrending phase, and the second peak is lower than the first, so that is really a BEARISH divergence. This was borne out by the price drop subsequently.

Likewise in your bottom chart, that first big trough in the MACD Histo is in line with the price drop, while the second occurs during the second smaller price drop, so it's not really a divergence either.

Looking back over my chart of NLX, I see no recent real divergences between price and the MACD Histogram at all - one follows the other pretty well spot on, with the exception of that very minor one mentioned above. NLX appears to be running along the bottom of a sideways consolidation at the moment, but as a trend-follower, I wouldn't be buying in again until a definite breakout, preferably above 30 cents, that last little high in late April, and with several more of the ducks lined up - ADX, MACD, VFI, etc. At the moment, they are all saying that NLX is still in a downtrend, or at best, sideways.

Hope that rambling all makes sense :-)

Not currently holding either.

(Message edited by nightstalker on July 05, 2005)

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

elisabeth

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Tuesday, July 05, 2005 - 06:50 pm:

Hello NightStalker,

Thank you for answering my post. Confusion reigns with me!

I totally understand your post and can see your view on the chart.

I'm stuck on the idea that price (on weekly) making an Equal Low in the same time frame that MACD makes a significantly Lower Low = bearish divergence. The opposite for the daily, and in fact even stronger : price makes Lower Low, while MACD makes a significantly Higher Low = bullish divergence.

The other thing I read recently from Alexander Elder is that divergence is ignored unless the MACD crosses 0 between the peaks/troughs. Yet, as you point out in the weekly, that lower peak definitely foretold a decline.

I need to go back to my references and try to figure this all out again.

Thanks again, NS.
Elisabeth

nightstalker

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Tuesday, July 05, 2005 - 07:07 pm:

Nothing is set in stone in this game, Elisabeth :-)

Elder's point about the zero crossings was that the signal TENDS to be stronger if the zero line is crossed between the peaks or troughs of a divergence. But it's not a given necessity, as far as my understanding of it goes.

The other point you make, about the apparent divergence, is where the misunderstanding occurs. I may be wrong, but I'm fairly certain that divergences are really only meaningful in a trending phase - one goes up, the other goes down, or vice versa. Higher highs in price, for instance, lower highs in the MACD Histogram or whatever indicator you're looking at. Vice versa in a downtrend - lower lows in price, higher lows in the indicator. If the MACD Histo is the indicator you're looking at, then Elder's point is that IF it crosses the zero line between peaks or troughs, then that MAY make it a stronger predictor.

I still think that NLX is going sideways, so divergences are a bit hard to spot at the moment.

If anyone would care to chip in and correct me if I'm wrong, I'd be only too happy to learn other views on this.... One is never too old to learn stuff :-)

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

slick007

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Wednesday, July 06, 2005 - 10:19 am:

it will be interesting to see if NLX maintains its opening price today of 27c given that new SPP shares have started trading...

elisabeth

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Wednesday, July 06, 2005 - 06:34 pm:

NightStalker, just to say thank you for your time in answering my query. I'll continue trying to understand divergence and if I ever find anything useful will post under a divergence heading - don't hold your breath, though, the day job dominates and everything to do with learning to trade is slow, slow, slow.

Sorry to diverge (!) from the NLX thread - it remains on my watchlist.

Regards,
Elisabeth

nightstalker

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Wednesday, July 06, 2005 - 10:17 pm:

You're very welcome Elisabeth :-)

I hope my posts haven't discouraged you from looking for divergences - they are still possibly the strongest signals in TA, but as with any signal, not all of them succeed.

Just to diverge for myself, so to speak, here is what I would call a rather nice divergence. It is RDF from late last year, with the divergence between the downtrending price and the MACD Histogram. You can see that it was followed a short time later by a very nice uptrend. Interestingly, RDF has done the same again recently, but the divergence was not nearly as marked.

rdf

OK - enough of straying from the topic of NLX :-)

We'd better leave any more discussion re divergences to a thread specifically on them, if necessary. NLX closed right on that 27 cent mark today - it will be very interesting to see if it consolidates around there over the next week or so, or if it continues to drift downwards.

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

magneto

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Saturday, July 09, 2005 - 10:48 am:

IMHO, NLX shows characteristics of weekly divergence. The next week or so is going to be critical. On the upside, 0.29 looks significant, with 0.25 on the downside.

Have a good weekend all.

Sincerely,
Mag

nightstalker

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Saturday, July 09, 2005 - 05:18 pm:

Hi Mag

Yup - I'd have to agree with your assessment of the bearish divergence on the weekly chart there, but don't you think that one 'foretold' of the fall in SP that started in January? In other words - the prediction of that divergence has already been manifested?

I can't see any newer, more recent divergences in the sideways part of the chart, despite your marking of one. The divergences are supposed to be of peaks or troughs in the MACD Histogram, but you've just put the line up the right side of the trough - in other words, that is all part of a single 'low' instead of being between two consecutive lows. And the price action itself is too sideways to interpret any peaks or troughs as being higher or lower than any other - it's too sideways - if you see what I mean.... ;)

Your chart is a nice example of a bearish divergence playing out as it should, over the last 12 months, but I'd have to beg to differ on the more recent one. The entire downward final part of that MACD Histogram is just reflecting the price chart downtrend and bottom from the top half of the chart.

If you see what I mean.... :-)

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

magneto

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Saturday, July 09, 2005 - 11:39 pm:

Hi NS,

I think I see what you mean. We are in agreement on the bearish divergence, which means, at least, I am partially on the right path!. Let me expand on why I call the last part of the chart, a bullish divergence.

With that "claimed

final bullish divergence ", my understanding was that the trough does not have to be two clearly identifiable troughs, so long as the direction of the slope is opposite to the dual? price troughs. Has worked for me in the past.

.

Still, your post made me reexamine it. So I googled, and found this description at stockchart (http://www.stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_MACD4.html - see the IBM chart about two thirds down) which might be useful.

Have a good weekend.

Sincerely,
Mag

elisabeth

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Sunday, July 10, 2005 - 07:47 am:

I am enjoying this look at NLX!

Have been reading lots on divergence and will have one more go….

I've gone bullish. Before I go on,
- I would not take an entry without further other evidence
- The RD and HD divergence stuff below is new knowledge for me, untested
- Not all divergence signals are valid
- Not all signals lead to large moves
- These observations are based on my understanding and I could be very wrong!

From the Nqoos site on Regular "RD" and Hidden "HD" divergence:
- Price makes a Higher High or Lower Low, Oscillator does not = RD = Reversal
- Oscillator makes a HH or LL = HD = Continuation
(Double Tops are equivalent to HH, as are Double Bottoms to LL)

NLX Weekly:
NLXwkly

The trend (Red 21 EMA) turned up mid '04
The retrace has tested the low = Double Bottom + Oscillator LL = Hidden Bullish divergence = the retrace is over = continuation trade

MACD crossing the 0 line would be confirmation but other factors (MAs, support & resistance levels, trendline breaks,, volume, moneyflow, candle patterns, etc) must also be looked at, ie divergence does not automatically signal a trade

Daily:
NLXdly

Price = LL, MACD = HL = Regular Bullish divergence = bottom reversal = trade long
The MACD crossover has already happened

NS, I hope you have time to post your thoughts.

Magneto, I had come across the IBM chart also - it is a weekly and they suggest shortening the MACD to 6,12,6 - I had a quick look at that and though it overall confirms my bias, there were a lot more crossovers and I need to experiment further. I do think that divergence in the slope of the bars makes sense, but can't yet find an "expert" reference on it - do you have one?

And as an aside, ChartSchool (StockCharts.com) say that as MACD histogram is an indicator of an indicator (it charts the difference between the 2 MACD lines), it should not be looked at in comparison with price - just about every other chart I saw (including Elder) drew their divergence on the histogram.

Sorry about the long post! All opinions most welcome.
Elisabeth

(Message edited by elisabeth on July 10, 2005)

nightstalker

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Sunday, July 10, 2005 - 08:32 am:

Morning Mag and Elisabeth :-)

I checked out that page, Mag, and I have to say that he is talking about two different things there. What I have been referring to above are what he calls "peak-trough" divergences. What you refer to above are what he calls "Slant divergences".

He also makes the point, just below the General Electric chart above the IBM one, that :

(QUOTE)
In addition, it would appear that peak-trough divergences are a bit more reliable than slant divergences. Peak-trough divergences tend to be sharper and cover a longer time frame than slant divergences.
(END QUOTE)

I must admit that I've not got into slant divergences before, and I'm not really sure that I actually agree with him on that one. Now I'm no expert, but I fail to see the significance of the slope angle up the side of a trough or down the side of a peak, except that it is a measure of how quickly the indicator changes, not by how much. That is - the rate, not the value. After all, EVERY peak or trough MUST have a downsloping side and an upsloping side, and I find it a bit hard to read much significance into the rate of change of these slopes compared to the rate of change of the price action. They are too far removed, IMHO, with the slope angles, or slant as he puts it, being a derivation of a histogram which is a derivation of two indicators (MACD and signal line) which is a derivation of two other indicators (MAs) which are derived from the price action... ;)

Let's just say that perhaps we were referring to two different things here. I was referring to peak-trough divergences, and you have been referring to slant divergences.

Boy - I'm glad we got THAT cleared up!! ;)

And I still think NLX is going to go sideways or down in the near future.... <g>

(Message edited by nightstalker on July 10, 2005)

Regards, NightStalker

"The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"

magneto

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Sunday, July 10, 2005 - 10:32 am:

Boy you guys are early birds.

Elisabeth,
You appear to have done more research than I have. I tend to keep my analysis simple (read: lazy!), and just focus on one or two "key" signals.

NS,
Repeating the quote from stockcharts,
"Usually, the longer and sharper the divergence is, the better any ensuing signal will be. Short and shallow divergences can lead to false signals and whipsaws. In addition, it would appear that peak-trough divergences are a bit more reliable than slant divergences. Peak-trough divergences tend to be sharper and cover a longer time frame than slant divergences".

So there, your view of divergence was providing you with a more reliable signal all along! I'll bear that in mind too.

Back to NLX, another week or two will provide us with more signals as to where it is going and will continue to value your inputs as well others.

Sincerely,
Mag

perler59

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Monday, August 01, 2005 - 11:19 am:

A 10 year view of NLX for those who like to dream of stage 2 breakouts (Including me :-)

) Notice the increase in volume in the last few years.

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

des2

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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 08:40 pm:

this is an excellent thread! well done to all.

perler, you may find just as great if not a greater correlation between traded volumes on brand stocks listed on the asx (such as nlx) and the explosive advent of internet based brokering since early 2003.

i could be wrong - just an alternative hypothesis.

perler59

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Wednesday, August 17, 2005 - 09:15 am:

Des, That's a very good explanation. NLX is doing a great job of going nowhere. I've given up on it for now. Those with more patience than me may now be rewarded.

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

moleman

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Wednesday, October 18, 2006 - 07:12 pm:

Hi

Huge volume and price increase on the break...

cheers

MM (too small for me...)

mdees1

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Friday, October 20, 2006 - 12:01 pm:

hi every1 i just joined the forum. i am looking to start in shares so i thought id join here seems full of information.

about NLX i had a look at the rights issue but i dont fully understand what it is. could some one give me insight on how it works and what a shareholder should do.

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