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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1244
Registered: 08-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Friday, May 13, 2005 - 08:46 am: |  
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'tis my observation... if you stand back and do a quick scan of this place, what do you find?
...there're overwhelming bearish views! If there's any bullish view, I think it's in the minority. If this is the case, my "suspicion" is the market may be due for a short term rally at least, if not, due for a longer run.
Contrary to all these bearish views, I can see there's an increase in $$$ flowing into the market. The "dead" sectors of the past, the XFJ, XXJ and now XDJ are getting second look, the "main stream" investors may very well be into their under value buys (for all we know); the sectors that are getting the haircut are the XMJ and XEJ - these two groups were used to prop up the index before and now they are "harvesting" - we should expect that. So why the surprises?
May be we should read the market as is and not let our fear taking over. If you are feeling the fear and jitters - this is the minimum you should do - refrain from forming any long term view because you are not in the right state of mind.
Stay out and stay away from the market until you "feel" you are in control of yourself - the market is not going to "die", it's just reaching a low, may be a short term low; there will be a few more zig-zag'ing from here. It won't rebound straight up back to its old high, neither will it go straight down to a new low on a daily/weekly basis.
Try looking at the current level as a "inflection" point, it may rebound upward or downward or move sideway. So until it shows its new direction with more certainty - there's no point making any long term conclusion.
Not now.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1245
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 13, 2005 - 09:15 am: |
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Profit Warning...
SKYCITY Reduces Earnings Expectation for FY05 to $100m-$103m
SKYCITY Entertainment Group Limited advises that its expectation for net surplus for the 2005 financial year has been reduced from the level indicated at the time of its half year result announcement in February.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1277
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 09:40 am: |
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17 May 2005
MEDIA RELEASE
JUST GROUP EARNINGS UPDATE
Just Group Limited today advised that its directors expect the company’s earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) for the year ended 31 July 2005 to be in the range of $67 million to $73 million. This compares with previous guidance of an EBITA of over $80 million and the Prospectus forecast of $73 million. Net profit after tax (after goodwill amortisation) is expected to be near Prospectus forecast of $40.4 million.
Just Group’s Managing Director, Mr Howard McDonald, said today that trading in the critical month of May had been disappointing to date, largely due to the unseasonably warm weather and moderating consumer spending.
“May is our biggest month for Winter and the July quarter represents 77% of the budgeted profit for the season. The first three weeks of May have been well below the corresponding period last year and this is affecting our outlook,” said Mr McDonald
“We are planning to launch new season’s ranges in July and all brands are well positioned to maximise sales and margins. Concurrently, the roll out of new stores is continuing as planned,” he said.
Mr McDonald said, “while we are disappointed with current trading, the company’s cashflow remains strong, stock levels are down and the underlying strength of the business is excellent.
*** be prepared.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1278
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 09:43 am: |
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CSL Limited announces that it has now completed its on-market buy-back of 10 million
ordinary shares.
*** one possible reason why there was a slamdunk yesterday... there may be a bounce today, but this stock is "dead meat"
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1285
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 18, 2005 - 09:43 am: |
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ASX RELEASE SOLCO LIMITED 18 May 2005
MARKETING AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLCO LTD AND COUNTRY ENERGY
The Directors of Solco Ltd (ASX: SOO) have announced that they have signed a marketing agreement with New South Wales energy company, Country Energy.
Under the agreement, Solco and Country Energy will undertake a six-month trial to market Solco's products to Country Energy's customers.
The non-exclusive agreement will cover Solco's domestic renewable energy products, including solar hot water systems, PV gridfeed systems, mini hydro or wind generators and solar powered water pumps.
Country Energy
Country Energy is a leading Australian energy services corporation owned by the New South Wales Government, with around 3,300 employees serving more than 780,000 customers.
Country Energy manages Australia’s largest power supply network across 95 per cent of New South Wales’ land mass.
Country Energy offers retail electricity in five states and territories, with a product range that includes natural and bottled gas, internet services and energy efficiency advice. It also provides water services to 20,000 customers in far west New South Wales.
Solco Ltd.
Solco is Australia’s only provider that offers the full range of solar hot water systems, solar power solutions, solar water pumping, solar water purification, and domestic water management solutions for a sustainable future. The company was incorporated in 1998 and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange in December 2000 as Solar Energy Systems Ltd. The company changed its name to Solco Ltd after the successful acquisition of Solco Industries Pty Ltd. in mid 2004. This acquisition led the company to post its maiden half year profit. In March 2005 Solco Ltd. acquired Choice Electric Co. (Aust) Pty Ltd., the leading Australian agency for Sharp solar (the largest solar panel producer in the world).
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1473
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 20, 2005 - 08:25 am: |
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The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.67 per cent, or 8.22 points, to 1,229.35.
Despite the day's gains, the market is about even with where it was last week, said Peter Martin, senior technical analyst, Prudential Equity Group. "In the very short term, it's a just a tired market."
Bonds rose, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.19 per cent from 4.22 per cent late on Monday. The US dollar was up against other major currencies in European trading. Gold prices were unchanged.
Crude oil futures rose. A barrel of light, sweet crude settled at $US57.46, up US14¢, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In the closely watched housing market, US Commerce Department data showed construction of new homes and apartments was flat in June, providing an indication that the red-hot housing market may be cooling off. June's performance was far below the 1.1 per cent increase private economists had been expecting.
Link here
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1474
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 20, 2005 - 08:43 am: |
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Here is a piece of sensible opinion...
Key POINTS
· Company guidance will steer the market as profit growth slows.
· Above-average earnings could lift shares 10 per cent.
· Non-miners will sweat to expand margins and cut costs.
The Australian sharemarket's direction for the rest of the year will be decided by an avalanche of profit reports between now and the end of next month.
What companies say about their earnings for the June year will not matter much to the big investors who can make or break the market. A rash of profit downgrades in April and May purged most of the bad news from the June half, and earnings growth will still be robust - about 12 per cent for industrial companies, and at least 50 per cent for the miners and oil companies that have been tapping the commodity price boom.
What the professionals will care about is what the same companies say about the year ahead, about costs and profit margins in particular.
To meet expectations, company "guidance" needs to be good enough to produce continuing profit margin expansion in the face of an economic slowdown. There is concern among fund managers that it will not be.
Everybody agrees that earnings growth will slow in the coming year as the housing boom decelerates and commodity prices ease from unsustainable highs, mainly because China's boom has slowed slightly from a breakneck pace...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 44
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 20, 2005 - 09:01 am: |
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Hi Holycow
Great to see that you are back, really missed all the news reports!
Have you been away sunning yourself in Queensland?
Regards
Kate
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1475
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 20, 2005 - 12:54 pm: |
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Hi Kate,
Thanks. No, I was not taking a holiday in Qland but rather spending the last few weeks battling my PC's. I had an upgrade, the house cleaning plus software/data shifting has turned into a mess - now I got a new PC running twice as fast while my old one is sitting at the corner of my study doing a lot of number crunching - doing a lot of system backtests - since I can't beat them mech system folks, I might as well join them and revisit something I have abandoned quite a while ago to find out what they are crowing about.
So far, I find the exercise a good refresher but still I am coming back to the same conclusion - same old same old, may be I need to research a little harder into some of the concepts being espousing around. Never can tell, there's always something new to learn.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 50
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 21, 2005 - 02:53 pm: |
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HC,
I think Queensland would be preferable!
Do you honestly think that a mechanical system could work - this is purely an academic question - when you are dealing with the behaviour of people?
Also, do you think searching for successful mechanical system is a reflection of past trading success?
I'm just asking because whilst you may be going through the motions, you don't sound convinced.
Regards
Kate
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1480
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 21, 2005 - 05:59 pm: |
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Kate,
I am still trying... so far, I seem to have come back to my old negative conclusion but I am consciously rejecting it because in "concept" the system approach makes sense.
One of the greatest hindrance for me in utilising a system approach is my reliance on chart patterns and the interpretation of such pattern on a discretional basis - this makes it very hard to transform/transcribe the approach into some kind of mathematical/programming language provided by the testing software. Other than struggling with the formulation of a trading/system model, I have to learn to code the "formulae" accurately - all these require substantial time and the learning curve can be quite steep.
(Other than the daily EOD headache, and the occasional bouts of table slamming, PC screen swearing, knuckle biting and blowing hot air through my ears, I think system testing is quite an interesting and "enjoyable" endeavour...  )
But,...there are merits in back testing our trading method with past data, I believe this part at least is relevant. For example, I was curious to know the optimal values of MACD on certain stocks that I am monitoring - so I did a few quick back tests on MACD using daily/weekly data just to see what are the possible past "optimal" values for the signal line and the "threshold" line (the horizontal zero line, instead of zero, may be 1, or -0.5 could provide alternate or better result, etc) - the results are rather interesting. Not sure if it will help me in my trading but I am keeping note of them.
The main thing I am trying to achieve is to come out with a short term trading method that I can use since short term trading is my Archilles heel, I'd just love to have something that will help me trade in a volatile environment like the current market. This has to do with my believe that the current topping market is ideal for short term trading but risky for long term trades/investing.
Cheers.
pps: (sorry for the long post, didn't expect to write so much on this...)
ps: May be I should describe my "thesis" to you... in the last 24 months, now into its 28 months the ASX has been on an uptrend, I believe firmly that this trend is unsustainable. So far the market has been giving me black eyes and has been going up since its correction back in Mar-May period, with a new high today.
The questions I am asking myself daily are these:
1) at 4275 (XAO), how much higher can the index go? Base on what's reported, some analysts are expecting about 6% more growth - I don't know just exactly what it means but if I were to multiply 4275 with 1.06 I am looking at 4513; but then this is what "they" said, I am not going to bet my money with what they are telling the market...
2) with a target of 4513 "expected" by these analysts' clients, and assuming they are "working" towards this objective, I suspect they will most likely pull the plug way before 4513 is achieved (gosh! I am a suspicious fella!)
3) the following observations make me feel most uncomfortable with punting my money in a longer term -
a) there's a clear decline in total money traded in the "pool" in the last couple of weeks - I read that to be either some big fellas are holding back, or some of the money/profit had been taken out from the pool; btw today and yesterday are exceptional, may "they" are putting their money back into the market(?)
b) there are many reports on slowing "drivers" - factors behind the recent growth of ASX. See this and this. And quite a few more elsewhere - these can't be good for long term trades;
c) the more obvious and the usual ones - high oil price, interest rate hikes, etc...
4) this last bit could be all unnecessary fear and is "all in my mind" - I believe any market that has risen by more than 12 months, (in our case, 28 months), when the end comes, it doesn't end with a gradual and gentle decline, it usually ends with some kind of blow off - it's almost always ended up with some kind of crash and burns, which if I am not careful, "they" will take back all my profit plus more. Hence I am watching my cash reserve quite carefully at this point.
But then again, after saying all the above, I have increased my equity exposure to 50%, although I am still guarded...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 51
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 22, 2005 - 09:51 am: |
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I think I better answer this in stages.
Chart patterns if they were textbook cases could probably be worked into a mechanical system, the problem is that any data lying outside the pattern would prevent the pattern being recognised. I know you could allow for some deviation but I think it would start throwing up endless useless information.
Bare in mind that this is coming from someone who has a scientific background but not one in stats or programming.
The big problem as I see it with both patterns and trends is what appears to be manipulation of prices to "discredit" patterns. It was quite a coincidence that Colin's What's New was in my inbox this morning, it certainly seems to support this, for trends anyway.
Re Short term trading: What do you consider short term and what method have you used in the past?
At the moment all my trades are short term until proven otherwise, mainly because I want the protection of a reasonably tight stop loss until I'm sure I can reach my goal of trading for a living.
My uptrend plan is very simple. Entry - uptrending stocks which have moved out of a consolidation period (eg PDN recently), a pattern within an uptrend and a pullback to the trendline followed by a bounce(Weinstein).Also early stage 2 entry. I restrict myself to these sort of entries so I can use the most valid stops i.e.trendline, support and resistance lines. Very importantly for me is accompanying volume trends.
The choice of trailing stoploss depends on the share's uptrend pattern, I either use the countback line or Weinstein plus an extra few cents( all calculated with position size etc before trading )to hopefully counteract the possibility of whipsaw etc.
Exit: Breach of stoploss or exit prior to major resistance level e.g TEN at the end of June this year.
Actually, pretty mechanical without the mechanics.
By the way I also have a contingency plan if everything goes pear shaped - bail out of everything immediately!!
Will comment about the rest of your post tomorrow.
Regards
Kate
Please feel free to be as blunt as you wish!
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