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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1311
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 03, 2005 - 01:52 pm: |  
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CND Daily
1) Human Resource/Recruitment Services
2) Momentum building; ideal entry point at around 1.85(+1)
3) Good for short term trade;
4) I have this stock.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1323
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, June 06, 2005 - 09:11 am: |
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Candle upgrades profit guidance to $6.9m
June 6, 2005 - 8:55AM
White collar recruiter Candle Australia Ltd has upgraded its 2004/05 profit forecast to $6.9 million, approximately 50 per cent higher than the previous financial year.
"This record result reflects organic sales growth across the whole business, strong results from the recent acquisitions and a continued focus on productivity," Candle said.
"The outlook for the business and demand for our services remains positive."
Candle expects earnings per share pre-goodwill of approximately 18 cents per share for the period.
The company posted a net profit of $4.55 million in 2003/04.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1329
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, June 06, 2005 - 06:47 pm: |
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CND Daily
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1462
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 18, 2005 - 06:13 pm: |
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CND Daily
1) Watch the previous peak and be prepared to take some off the table; remember it's always the greedy pigs that got slaughtered...
2) stock market and academic studies are like oil and water, they don't mix very well. The LTCM "experiment" (read: disaster) was a case where geniuses in mathematics showed the world how brilliant minds could fail catastrophically - in hindsight and with 20/20 vision, I am wondering why do people still want to reinvent the "disaster"? (read this: LTCM case study)
Here's a simple suggestion: don't waster your time and don't get distracted - watch the market - stay focussed; it is getting so close to the recent peaks that the next few days could reveal quite a bit of its future direction to all of us. It makes sense (it pays!) to watch the market and your money, on the other hand your academic perusal will net you a headache and at the end of it - none the wiser!
3) Also, on the other tangent - try this observation: is the current bullish US unduly influencing the ASX? See attached chart.
SPX Daily
4) other miscellaneous info - the recent value of transaction in ASX has been below average especially in the last few days where a gap between 800mil to 1.5 bil had been observed (what does this tell you?);
4.1) the market seems to show this pattern - strong opening but "suffered" from profit taking mid way and failed to close at its intraday top - can we read anything into this?
(I have a note in front of my desk to remind me of how the averages behave - "the average moves up to a new high, but does on low volume - it means the demand for stocks is poor at that point and that the rally is vulnerable") - I am not sure if this applies in ASX or not. So it's your call here.
AORD 5-min intraday
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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billie
Member
Username: billie
Post Number: 21
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 18, 2005 - 06:59 pm: |
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Holycow
I think a lot of people are waiting to see what the All Ordinaries will do. You invited comments.. "I am not sure if this applies in ASX or not. So it's your call here."
I have a friend who has been trading the markets very successfully for fifty years, using Technical Analysis. He picked the June rally prior to it happening. He also gave me some other advice as well. He told me that the All Ordinaries would test its all time high resistance a few times before it proceeded to move strongly higher.
I have been waiting for just such a thing to happen, sure enough it is busy testing its all time high. It is doing exactly as he said it would.
I guess there is nothing like years of experience doing something, to really know what is going on.
Regards
Billie
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1463
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 18, 2005 - 08:27 pm: |
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Billie,
Yes, your friend is right. We can look at the current retesting of the peaks as a consolidation, which by definition upon breaking out the market will continue with the current trend - which is up.
Alternatively, if the break out fails, then the possibilities of the market moving back down to retest its recent low of 4179 is just as likely. Upon breaking down the support at 4179, a more serious correction awaits further down the road at 3900.
If you look at the price/volume divergence in the last few sessions you can see quite clearly in your chart that the volume has been gradually declining somewhere after June30, I see this to be "not a good sign" because a bullish market requires volume to gain height, base on the current market volume, at best I see the break out (if there's one) to be one of a weak rally, unless the breakout is accompanied by a good and sizable volume.
The intraday market with strong opening and profit taking midway is tellng me at the current level, many are quite willing to exchange their shares with cash at the market high. In the last 20 sessions or so, I saw there were quite a fair bit of such exchanges - strong hands are handing out stock to exchange for cash - I don't know who the buyers are but I can see their buyings are insufficient to push the market higher. At least not in the last 20 session including today.
So, my guess is this - if the breakout doesn't happen soon, the market is going to fall on its weight. I can't see how "they" can keep churning at the current level. Something's got to give after 20 sessions.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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billie
Member
Username: billie
Post Number: 25
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 18, 2005 - 09:03 pm: |
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Holycow
How interesting you see 'churning' and I see 'house cleaning'. As my friend said you have to get rid of the frightened sellers. I see the drop in volume as just that, fewer and fewer people selling out. I find the low volumes a wonderful indicator of the sellers slowing down.
Once the price level sits above its overhead resistance, I can see the dedicated bears of which there appears to be many just recently, climbing over themselves to get back in.
They will have a lot of competition from Super Inflows and Hedge Funds trying to cover their shorts, could be quite a rally for some time to come.
I am seriously cashed up and ready for the action.
Regards
Billie
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 220
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 18, 2005 - 11:50 pm: |
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HC,
I noticed late this afternoon (around 3pm or later) that many stocks on my watchlist were being hit simultaneously at the times when the market took a drop. This must be fundies selling out but it was broad in nature, not just a few stocks. Could be they see a need to lighten in general or they could have just lost a mandate.
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1464
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 19, 2005 - 09:35 am: |
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Billie,
It's interesting, isn't it?  This is the thing that makes the market unpredictable because so many different brain waves are working hard at cracking open the pot of gold... I am at the moment keeping at open mind and wait for the eventuality.
Ken,
I have some fundamental "theses" which could be totally irrelevant, so treat this as pure guesses:
1) most of the index advances in the last couple of weeks were mainly due to bank stocks - the volatility probably was/is caused by big investors taking/getting out position before/after dividend ex-dates; the next big one is CBA which, in a way you can assume there will be another small push in this sector before this sector is abandoned. Yesterday's sell off mid way I believe was profit taking in the banks/WDC and a few others that have been staying up at some lofty level. I could be wrong here.
2) the next FORMC meeting is on August 9 and I think this one can be crucial to the US market (and the ASX), because many analysts believe Big Al's "hint" and action will have a long term effect because raising, holding or reducing the interest rate by 0.25% will have a much greater impact this time after 8 raises(?) and with oil price staying at the current level - the impact on economic growth can be much amplified comparing with the previous few times.
Because of this concern, I believe many big investors or fundies deem it unwise to hold on to bank stocks or those that are sensitive to interest rate movement.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 535
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 19, 2005 - 10:18 am: |
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Hi HC - Thanks for returning to the forum - I don't say much here, but read your stuff frequently.
If I may ... your quote :
If you look at the price/volume divergence in the last few sessions you can see quite clearly in your chart that the volume has been gradually declining somewhere after June30, I see this to be "not a good sign" because a bullish market requires volume to gain height, base on the current market volume, at best I see the break out (if there's one) to be one of a weak rally, unless the breakout is accompanied by a good and sizable volume.
... prompted my memory. Wm O'Neil (How to make money in stocks) says that if you get shrinking volume prior to a breakout, and the breakout is accompanied by at least 50% increase in volume, then the move is going to be a powerful one.
You mentioned that ASX volume is below average - a gap between 800million - to 1.5 billion. Also, if the All-Ords is indeed forming a triple top, then the re-test of support might be more likely.
If the All-Ords is, as Billie says, re-visiting resistance, one would be looking for a breakout - and be ready for it.
As I said, with prior shrinking volume, the breakout will be a beauty. But you can only trade signals. "Hope" does not put bread and butter on the table!
Can I ask for your opinion, HC? If a breakout does emerge, what instruments would you be looking at to lead the way? Indexes? ASX 20 - 50? Big Caps?
I'll cut it here, but I have another interesting post to add to this thread shortly.
Keep Smiling
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 536
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 19, 2005 - 10:39 am: |
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Recent letter from my Super Fund advised the following interest rates:
1/07/04 : - 6.10% *
1/08/04 : 07.90%
1/09/04 : 20.60%
1/10/04 : 16.40%
1/11/04 : 31.10%
1/12/04 : 28.80%
1/01/05 : 07.80%
1/02/05 : 11.30%
1/03/05 : 00.20% *
1/04/05 : - 16.10% *
1/05/05 : No Data *
1/06/05 : 29.90%
The Fund called these rates "annual rates".
The March and April '05 figures reflect the dip at that time, but the June figure either reflects profit taking by the fund at that time, or it reflects strong, ongoing market growth.
How would anyone here interpret the figures?
Keep Smiling
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1466
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 19, 2005 - 11:07 am: |
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I54,
1) re: your super interest figures - I have no idea how to interpret it, may be others can help you on this?
2) on W. O'Neill, sometimes you have to exercise a little of your own discretion that you have built up through your experience - O'Neill's C&H scenario I believe most times work well with Weistein's stage 1 or 2 and not at stage 3 (what's your take on the current ASX? W's stage 1, 2, or 3?).
I take the current ASX as in W's stage 3 hence I don't see O'Neill's view applying here.
Drying up of volume could mean there's a lack of sellers (at the bottom) or a lack of buyers (at the top), so depending on how one sees the current market as in a topping or bottoming stage, the interpretation varies accordingly and it rests with one's perception.
You can get a fair bit of clues from the individual sector indices with regard to their individual bullishness or bearishness to get a bit of insight on the overall market.
You can also get a bit of hint from the intraday market,... like the chart below - in a single "BOOM!" (in less than 30 minutes), the index took away the last three days' gain. Just like that! Do you think this is a bullish market tendency?
Cheers.
ps: here's one more point - the market in general fears UNCERTAINTY, not bad news because they can price their stock accordingly. Right now, "they" fear Big Al's eventual decision - which ever way it goes, they are guarded. As we draw near to August 9, the more jitter they will become, so,we can expect more volatility but personally I don't think this will help the case for a bullish market.
As usual, I could be wrong here.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 1860
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 19, 2005 - 12:49 pm: | | | |
