Damn if you...

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holycow

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Post Number: 1312
Registered: 08-2004

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Friday, June 03, 2005 - 03:02 pm:

"So what do we do?
Longer-term readers know that this is about the time where I give my "damned-if-you-do-and-damned-if-you-don't" speech about overbought markets. Here it goes: if you buy an overbought market, it'll correct from overbought shortly after you enter. If you hold off on buying, you watch in agony as overbought becomes more overbought. I'm okay with the latter, though. I'm willing to forgo an opportunity vs. doing something risky. Therefore, continue to wait for a correction (i.e. a pull back) before looking to buy. This of course, if the trend resumes after the pullback."

~ recent comment from Dave Landry on the US market, a master swing trader; incidentally I see his comment is just as applicable in ASX.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

ann

Member

Post Number: 524
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 1


Friday, June 03, 2005 - 09:14 pm:

Hi HC,

This is just one of the points that Spider brought up at one of the IC meetings. He was complaining about the fact that Snifter told everyone to hold off going back into the markets, after it did that big dive during March 2003.

From memory he was quite annoyed because he felt everyone lost quite a bit of money because of Snifter's advice and he felt Snifter had too much influence over the Forum overall. I can't comment, as I wasn't here at that time.

I understand that Snifter sent Spider a dreadful email, but Spider did not elaborate on this.

I also have something to say about Snifter's advice to those suffering from arthritis. I haven't wanted to say anything because I am well aware that a lot of you thought he was it and a bit. I truly can't agree from my perspective, but that is for another time.

I tend to shy away from 'Guru' advice and just listen to my 'gut' feeling. If I am wrong, then I have only myself to blame.

So HC if the markets tend to rise and rise now, I won't feel annoyed that I took your very well meaning advice along with some others..ie Spider who has spent a lot of time both at the meetings and on IC charts talking about 'Head and Shoulder' patterns, Dogalog,Wombat who had a big fight with you because he felt you were promoting all the bad news stories about our economy { which I must say , have turned out to be bunkum}, Captain Chazza, Captain Seahound who I believe is an ex important banker, he looked at me with such kind worry, when I said I would not sell.

I made my own decision so if I end up losing a whole lot because of the advice I received here, well I say...my decision, no one is to blame. I sold my holding because that put me into a 'comfort zone'.

Keep all the good advice coming, I listen to you all but........ I take my own responsibility for my actions.

Cheers
Ann

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holycow

Member

Post Number: 1313
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 01:24 am:

Ann,

It's so much "deja vu" in hearing all the "stories" of the past - no matter how "humble" we each try to present to this forum, the super-size ego is never far away behind each message we sent out...

Personally my attitude is there's only one "entity" to listen to - the market as expressed in chart. Many at the moment are assuming the correction is over ("short and sharp" quoting a journo)... well I wonder, and we will see.

Commonsense depicts that for those who assume the market to keep on rising, there have to be very sound and solid fundamental factors behind it. I have been searching in the big picture and right now I still have not found them. If at all, the LONG TERM NEGATIVES stand out like a sore thumb. So frankly I don't quite see why the jubilation at this stage because if people open their eyes they should be able to see the obvious unless they forget their recent lesson:

1) the short sharp correction actually should be read/seen as short sharp rise which is quite unsustainable;

2) the high oil price strangely is not causing much concern at the moment, why? We are looking at 52 (or 54?), how could this be a good reason for a buoyant market?

3) the productivity is at a 20 year low, with wages rising above gdp growth - this one is already impacting the last quarter, the next two quarters will be worse couples with the effect of high oil price;

4) the retail and consumer spending has not recovered, yet;

5) the banks are holding up the index recently but their long term outlook is a big "sus" if you read beyond what the analysts and the news are saying;

6) material/commo is facing uncertainty due to China slowing down if you believe Andy Xie and Stephen Roach;

7) the US may yet hike rate a couple more times; the banking sector over there is doing quite badly which basically is saying the fear of interest hike is still prevalent; what really pulls up the market at the moment is the tech sector in NASDAQ but the momentum is waning as indicated by the declining volume; right now the market over there is quite over bought;

8) So let's come back to ASX - the only reasons I can attribute to the current "recovery' are a) it's been oversold lately; b) it's FYE and if "they" can make a quite buck and do some "portfolio shuffling", why not? c) the strongest reason for the current rally - it's riding on the US market coat-tail;

Are there any good fundamental reasons for the strong bank performance? Not really. A lot of BS has been given re:MBL outlook and all the MBL related trust/funds but frankly with weakening European economic outlook I doubt "M"acFunds/Trust will be able to justify their valuation.

Anyway, we will see. As far as I am concerned, this market is for trading and the current rally is sentiment driven more than anything else. No one should rest easy until the next two quarters' result are out. (The fat lady has not even put on her gown for the night yet!)

Cheers.

ps: For anyone wanting to go long term at this moment is... well, what can I say? Why not? But just count me out. It's a jolly good idea. The market needs it. My self-interest welcomes it.

pps: two weeks ago I told myself to shuddup on negative news/view because my recent experience has not been really that "rewarding". This time, I told myself "whatever will be, will be" afterall it's not my life nor my money and I get no price for being a loud mouth hot-air driven cow... on top of that when I get it wrong I get eggs all over my face - it's a lose-lose situation for me no matter how I twist and turn. So this shall be my "last" post on "doom and gloom" view and after this I shall let other newscasters and promoters taking over. It's about time I watch and listen.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

ann

Member

Post Number: 531
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 01:58 am:

HC

You sound very 'sharp', sorry did I offend you? Do I sound like I have an ego problem? Gawd you should meet me!!!!!!

I have been reading/listening to 'experts' say that the resource sector is going to re-address our trade imbalance with the rising price of commodities. Which means that all our large and small oilers and miners should help the market. The banks are travelling well. Soon there will be the 'End of Financial Year' sales in the shops...a great favourite with us ladies who shop!!! There is not to be an interest rate rise. Our economy according to Alan Kohler on the news Thursday night was fine, no problems. Housing figures are up even though it is from the area of higher density properties.

I expect to see a pullback of the XAO only because it is about to hit a resistance line from April 11 and it has been running very hard.

So at the risk of sounding as though I am tripping over an enormous ego...I am not buying back into the markets not until the XAO is over the 4260 mark and has tested that support line a couple of times. So am I convinced the slide is all over? Nooooo.

I think I may have just misunderstood what you were actually saying and now you think I am criticising you or your opinions. I wouldn't do that. As wombat said on one of his posts.......what is Ann?????

My answer...a nothing and a no one who enjoys the company of the people on this forum. I learn lots, I listen lots, I don't get too serious about life, I may only travel this way once, so I plan to enjoy it in my way.

So maybe I had better not contribute to your posts either as Dogalog has point blank told me he will report me to Colin if I dare write to him again. If you want me to stay away I shall and I say again I am sorry if I offended you. My intentions were the opposite.

Cheers
Ann

holycow

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Post Number: 1314
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 11:11 am:

Ann,

???...hmmm, let me explain.

Recently in one of the threads I gave others a piece of my mind on civility by suggesting separating "personal" from their personal views. From the reaction I got and the subsequent messages it seems most people find it hard to do that. I don't blame them because every opinion is personal alright so how could they avoid the personal touch?

To me, it's relatively simple - there's a difference between advice/opinion and there's a difference between sharing and telling. There's also a difference between "I", "You" and "We" and how we use them in our post.

May be I am still "smarting" from that post and suffering from its residual effect to write something that makes you think I am reacting "short and sharp"ly and letting my ego taking over. Well, I am not and I suggest you not to take what I have said too personally. Please re-read my message and count the number of "factual" words against the "emotional" words and see if which are the majority.

Not too long ago I told someone privately that it's not important to know who I am or what I am, what's important for him is to judge my words/views as harsh as possible. His job, for the sake of his own self interest is to read, listen, analyse, refute or absorb what are good or bad for his own conclusion and subsequently his own decision. And there's always this truth in life - he who makes the final decision takes the ultimate responsibility. Full stop.

By knowing less of me personally there's a lesser chance of letting his discretion being taken over by the "trust" developed due to the personal contact. That way his judgement and decision would be more objective, which could only be a good thing.

I also believe most people who visit and read our posts understood this very well. And as far as I am concerned, in most of my posts I have tried to provide as much data/info/chart/opinion be they objective or not so the reader can/could at least have some kind of choice to draw their own conclusion.

Personally, I don't take any sort of judgement from anyone in this forum. To me, there's only one judge - the market, and I am willing to abide by its rule. And as usual, my bottom line is my punishment or reward. So unless someone comes straight at me and tells me he is picking a personal fight with me I don't get too upset over what they said in this forum.

What I am trying to say to you is this... I prefer a good "debate" or "discussion" like what Peter and I had been through before the correction. I might have used words harshly but I don't believe it's out of hate, rather it's out of frustration. I am sure in many ways he felt the same. No matter what had transpired or how much we disagreed with each others, there's never a loss of respect for his stance, his knowledge and his courage.

Whilst I was disagreeing I have learned, and this is what count. He makes me see thing from his perspective and that's what I want. Unless I can see from his eyes I can never tell myself I know what he is talking about. But that does not mean I agree with him in all aspects. I am more aware to say it aptly. (I still disagree just in case people are wondering...)

With regard to what I have written last night, I still stick with it - most people strangely enough do not like "gloom and doom" news/view kindly, eventhough sometimes it can save their capital from ruin. Another observation I have is most people have problem separating long term view from short term market action and they jump to their conclusion too easily and too readily that makes it too time consuming to explain myself. It's costing too much time personally when others do not have the patience to sit through and sift through the market action.

Hence it makes sense for me to cut down my post especially at moment like this - the market is at an inflection point, it pays to spend more times to observe the market than explaining myself.

Anyway, I welcome your view and opinion. And if I have given you the impression that I was reacting "short and sharp"ly I can assure you that it's just the way I write and express myself. Ok? I have an ego just like everyone else, and for that matter mine is probably bigger than most, there're times my fingers write faster than my brain can think and last night was one of those moments, so forgive me for presenting my view so badly.

I am not angry or upset...I am still "operating" at normal condition and is cruising.

And I hope this is the last time I write such long post to explain myself.

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

ann

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Post Number: 532
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 12:14 pm:

Hi HC,

It is a pity that Peter isn't posting at the moment. I think you two did have a very close understanding with each other.

Correct me if I am wrong, but you both have an almost identical way of 'speaking' in other words you make virtually identical grammatical errors, so therefore I tend to think you also may be of Chinese background. So this could explain your 'good wavelink' with each other.

However the original quote that you wrote to start this thread, I totally misread. I probably should not be trying to read and absorb things at such a late hour of the night.

Yes I think you are quite right in what you say, most people don't like doom and gloom it is not very productive. So if one focuses on the positive with all things in life a great change for the better can be achieved. This is nothing new it is purely called the 'power of positive thinking'.

So tell me HC, if all the news stories that came from the TV and radio and papers only spoke positively of the economy and business in general and said how good it is the price of oil was going up to the sky, because this will make the new hybrid cars a far more viable proposition. Do you think the markets would be doing a curtsy or do you think they would be marching along bravely into the next big upwave of new floats....my personal favourite, I must declare. I love young things...children and shares. Lovely to watch them grow. Tell a child or a share it is rubbish and that is what it will turn out to be. In fact if you rubbish anything...that's what it becomes....rubbish.

Can you imagine the sort of trade we would have with China if they manufactured a lovely looking hybrid 'sporty' [for the boys] car that didn't cost the earth and cost almost nothing to run. I would love a little car like that.

Cheers
Ann

dogalog

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Post Number: 1458
Registered: 03-2004

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Votes: 3


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 12:41 pm:

Look,i'm trying to get my head together to have a good night out tonight in THE REAL WORLD.
This is just a site in the Virtual world,it's become corrupted IN MY OPINION,by a lot of 'We were here in the Beginning,we meet one another regularly,we drag out this garbage,and our Garbage is the onlysuch stuff allowed because??ahhh?we were first so what we say,and how we say it is the NORM that NOONE is to deviate from unless we know them,they come to meetings and are completely cowered by that BULLY CHUCK and that new age god only knows what Spider.
Now I AIN"T TAKING CRAP FROM PRATS,not without telling them about it,at least.
i suggest ANN,you ponder on your dear Captains Motives for wanting to set up Private Email 'CLUBS',think about what game he's playing calling people Gutless,when he can't put a sentence down that doesn't infer he's a KNOW IT ALL,racist[use of ragheads]sexist[wet tshirts] and just all round fascist Gotta Be PONCE in any identity he appears in.
ya fly with crows ya get shot with crows.
real sorry if i offended.
I'm on your side HC,if peter loh wants to sulk?
Feel Free,pete.
cheers,
jr
i'll be back sometime,somehow,later.

holycow

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Post Number: 1315
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Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 01:12 pm:

Ann and Dr,

Sorry. I still don't think both of you get my points...

I will shuddup for the time being.

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

ann

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Post Number: 535
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 01:30 pm:

jr at the risk of you reporting me to Colin for daring to speak to you. What exactly is your tirade about this time.

I have no knowledge of private email 'CLUBS' I rarely check my email so it wouldn't work very well with me. The only time I have communicated with Charles is on the traders group site or on the monthly meeting evenings. As far as Spider is concerned, I haven't seen him for months.

I certainly don't find him a 'bully' at the meetings. Smallworld is probably the one who takes the most proactive roll....still not a bully.

I can see Charles does rub people up the wrong way, but often, I think the written word can easily be misunderstood.

Now if you are suggesting Captain Chaza is 'feeding' his 'chosen' people with 'hot tips' then that is something I have no knowledge of.

Even if he was, I would NOT be taking any tips or suggestions about which shares to buy. That was one of my rules when I started trading again.....all my own work. I broke my rule once and bought a stock you were pushing at the time...SUL. That is one of the stocks that really lost me money when I sold. So never again will I take a suggestion for the purchase of a share from ANYONE.

real sorry if i offended

Cheers
Ann

spider

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Post Number: 2085
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 3


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 02:33 pm:

holycow,
just at the moment the forum is going through a rough patch.
We've had them before.
I can remember the first time it happened, someone suggested that "the party was over", that this excellent forum had had it's day.

Well, that wasn't how it worked out.

People get very quiet at these times, so we tend to notice foolish ones a little more, as there is less intelligent matter to consume.

Unfortunately the brighter members tend to duck for cover, not wanting to waste their time by getting involved in petty arguments.

But , frankly, I think that this is the time for those that have something intelligent to contribute, to stick their heads up and post, so that we can dilute the effect of the destructive elements that we seem to be plagued with at the moment.

holycow,
I wasn't aware that you were being harassed for your post "on civility by suggesting separating "personal" from their personal views."

Your point was well made.
I hope it had a positive influent on my posts.
I thank you for having the courage to post on that topic, and I'm sorry that it has caused you problems.

ann,
despite the fact that we see the markets through different eyes, I believe that it is important that you post, as you obviously represent those with a similar view, and despite what some might think, I believe that it is a good thing that our forum is widely representative of views that don't necessarily agree with mine.

I'm with holycow; can we get back to discussing ideas, and not slagging off on personalities.
Unfortunately I think that my words as well as HCs, will fall on deaf ears.

HC, on the subject of 'doom and gloom'.
I disagree with you when you say that people don't want to hear about D&G.

On the contrary, I think they lap it up.
Why else would people rush home every night to watch the evening news?

While we are on the subject; I know that you are into FA, and you consume vast amounts of information on the markets, and I know that it works for you, so I would like to ask you a question.

I NEVER watch TV news (but I do occasionally read newspapers) and I avoid financial news "like the plague", until after the event, as I find that I am too susceptible to the "noise", and in the past this susceptibility has cost me a bundle.

So I do my best to sequester myself.

My question to you (and to peterloh as well, as he is my other FA hero) is, how do you sift through all that stuff without getting lost, but more importantly, how you you stop it from effecting what you see on your charts.

Finally, through all the garbage that is floating around at the moment, there are a handful of posters that shine through as voices of reason and of interest.

Yours is such a voice, and I urge you not to be put off by the "dream stealers'.

The same goes for you ann, your view might be a minority one in this place, but you do represent those that would like to see a more compassionate world, and this is of value.

spider.

dogalog

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Post Number: 1459
Registered: 03-2004

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Votes: 3


Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 04:00 pm: