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Author Message  holycow Member Username: holycow Post Number: 1519 Registered: 08-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, July 30, 2005 - 02:24 pm:     PPX Weekly 1) since there's a fair bit of interest in this stock, let's track it and see; gotta say the weekly chart is one of the ugliest I have seen for a long time - probably more ugly than my "rump" view... assuming it can regain it's level back to 5.00 say, the potential gain from the current level of 3.53 is about 41%. Not bad. PPX Daily 2) I think the chart is quite self explanatory HC "... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"  ann Member Username: ann Post Number: 605 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, July 30, 2005 - 02:52 pm:     Hi HC What is the indicator you are using showing the bullish trend, just above your volume window? Unless that is a trade secret of course!!! Cheers Ann  holycow Member Username: holycow Post Number: 1525 Registered: 08-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, July 30, 2005 - 03:59 pm:     Ann, It's not mine, I picked it up here. I think someone posted it here in I/C - sorry if I can't accord the proper credit. I used it together with the good old vanilla OBV just to have some kind of comparison. By itself I think it is not too bad an indicator to use. Cheers. HC "... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"  holycow Member Username: holycow Post Number: 1582 Registered: 08-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Thursday, August 18, 2005 - 12:12 pm:     Just a follow up since the sp has dropped to around 3.25 at the moment. Read the Chairman's explanation of PPX's poor performance - it seems the high AUD is blamed as one of the major cause. Refer to the attached US$ and Euro Xrate with AUD and see if moving forward such "excuse" can be used again to explain for their poor performance. Also I think (meaning I am not sure), there're more problems within PPX's operation than explained because no details were given. See this: Unfortunately, the significant positive contribution to our group earnings generated in 2005 from our recent investments in Europe was not sufficient to compensate for the substantial drop in our Australian Paper earnings. This drop was due to the various impacts associated with the appreciation of the Australian dollar and to the negative profit impact of the operating factors referred to above. (don't tell me they have not heard of currency hedging before...) I am not drawing any conclusion, but if sp were to be a guide, this stock has to be dealt with a lot of tender loving care, sometimes touching it with a barge pole may not be a bad idea. PPX Daily USD-AUD X-rate EUR-AUD X-rate Chairman's letter to share holders dd 25/july Dear Shareholder, On 28th April 2005, PaperlinX advised the Australian Stock Exchange that the forecast profit after tax for the 2005 financial year would be around 20% less than the profit of the prior year (excluding the impact of Australian tax consolidation). We will announce the actual results for the year ended 30th June 2005 on Thursday 25th August 2005, and our results for 2005 will be consistent with or better than the April guidance for reported profit, with strong operating cash flow in the second half. I would now like to take this opportunity to clarify a number of matters which have received some media and investment advisor commentary since the announcement in April. As background to my comments, it is important to note that PaperlinX’s earnings are linked to a number of cyclical economic factors. These include overall economic demand and paper selling prices in the regions in which we operate (in particular Australia and more recently Europe), and the level of the Australian dollar against the US dollar which can have a major impact on our Australian manufacturing business. Profits for the 2005 fiscal year were negatively affected by these cyclical economic and currency factors. These have moved against the company in unison; European and Australian paper demand and paper prices have been low and the Australian dollar moved to its highest level against the US dollar since 1997. My first comment is that the changed profit outlook for the 2005 year happened relatively quickly. At the start of the second half of the 2005 financial year, based on the first half activity, we were optimistic that paper selling prices and volumes in Europe and Australia would improve. Unfortunately, these improvements did not eventuate and this had a significant negative impact on our earlier estimated result for the year. Further, we considered that some softening of the Australian dollar against the US dollar was possible which would have benefited Australian Paper’s pricing and volume mix for the second half of this year. Again this did not happen to the degree necessary to give the anticipated profit benefit in the 2005 financial year. Australian Paper’s operating performance was also negatively affected by a number of factors and these reduced the profitability of this business. Secondly, the underlying financial position of the PaperlinX group is very sound with substantial operating cash flows and access to more than enough funding for current needs without any requirement for equity raisings. We have more than sufficient credit lines to meet our medium term debt needs. Thirdly, our merchanting acquisitions in Europe have been very successful. Our merchanting operations retain leading market share positions in key markets around the world and the return on funds employed for merchanting for the 2005 financial year are forecast to be over 10%, which is good given current conditions. The integration of Buhrmann’s Paper Merchanting Division in Europe, which was acquired in the previous financial year, has progressed well and has been substantially earnings per share accretive in 2005. Our strategic move to establish the only global paper merchant has clearly created value for the group, and offers opportunity for further value creation in line with our strategic targets. Unfortunately, the significant positive contribution to our group earnings generated in 2005 from our recent investments in Europe was not sufficient to compensate for the substantial drop in our Australian Paper earnings. This drop was due to the various impacts associated with the appreciation of the Australian dollar and to the negative profit impact of the operating factors referred to above. Your Board is confident that the company is following the correct strategic path for both of our business streams, and has a sustainable long term future as we move through the current low levels of the earnings cycle. We wish to assure you that we are doing all that we can within the company to maximise the returns our company can generate, even in the current market conditions. The stock market’s reaction to the revision of the 2005 year earnings expectations was severe, with the share price being marked down significantly from previous levels. Whilst some share price weakness was to be expected, the Board believes that the share price fell to a level well below the underlying value of PaperlinX in the medium term and it has been pleasing to see some recovery. On behalf of the Board, I thank you for your support for PaperlinX. We will provide you with a further update in conjunction with the announcement of our results for the 2005 year. HC "... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"  tryhay Member Username: tryhay Post Number: 1 Registered: 09-2005 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, October 10, 2005 - 08:25 pm:     Hello holycow and others, I have been a closet IC for some time and have enjoyed the experience. Cant resist posting on PPX: seems to be some interest from substantial holder; like the SO, and the MACD is looking marginal (nowhere near as bad as others in current climate. Seems to have good support at >$3.00. What do you guys think?

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