| Author |
Message |
     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1605
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, August 21, 2005 - 10:50 am: |  
|
According to William O'Neill, Baruch defines "speculator" as a person who observes and acts before the future occurs... I guess this makes all the necessary spywork and intelligence gathering using both FA and TA very much an exercise in IA - Intelligence Analysis. In my context at least.
So how intelligent is an IA'er should be?
Well, I have these to share and you need to see it from this philosophical angle that the human world that we lived in is not perfect...
1) in IA there's no precision maths involved, what we have is fuzzy logic; don't get too hung up with precise support/resistance level and don't get too bogged down by yor price projection; like wise forget about precise ratios and average PE because these are used to fool those who want to believe in them; what is important is "that" sense of proportion; the commonsense deduction and to an extent, the fuzzy future trend;
2) in our human world, it's good to use a 80/20 filter - 20 percent of the stocks are rising and 80 percent of the stocks are falling in a bear market; in a bull market it's vice versa; 20% of the posts in this forum add some value to your thought; 80% are not; 20% of stock market participants are winner (frankly I believe this number is smaller), 80 percent are losers...
3) in the natural world, things are disorganised in some mystical way but sometimes you can gather a little of its secret by this - the golden ratio. So use it when you are lost, and there's nothing to work on; but use it wisely and not to abuse it;
4) in the human world consensus decision making promotes mediocrity; in the stock market, consensus stock investment strategy and decision invites eventual onslaught of the herd - this is "nature"'s way of removing excesses, only the toughest will survive;
5) when the market is looking at its best, it's best to leave it to those who live for the present and fail to see the future; when the market is at its worst, dread will be those who live in the past and see the present while opportunity is for those who live the present but see the future...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1618
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 26, 2005 - 09:15 am: |
|
... some view, it's good...
THE MARKET'S PERSPECTIVE
For the most part, a typical traders perception of the risk in any given trading situation is a function of the outcome of his most recent two or three trades (depending on the individual). The best traders, on the other hand, are not impacted (either negatively or too positively) by the outcomes of their last or even their last several trades. So their perception of the risk of any given trading situation is not affected by this personal, psychological variable.
There's a huge psychological gap here that might lead you to believe that the best traders have inherent design qualities in their minds that account for this gap, but I can assure you this is not the case. Every trader I've worked with over the last 18 years has had to learn how to train his mind to stay properly focused in the "now moment opportunity flow."
This is a universal problem, and has to do both with the way our minds are wired and our common social upbringing (meaning, this particular trading problem is not personspecific).
There are other factors relating to self-esteem that may also act as obstacles to your consistent success, but what we are going to discuss now is the most important and fundamental building block to your success as a trader.
THE "UNCERTAINTY" PRINCIPLE
If there is such a thing as a secret to the nature of trading, this is it: At the very core of one's ability 1) to trade without fear or overconfidence, 2) perceive what the market is offering from its perspective, 3) stay completely focused in the "now moment opportunity flow," and 4) spontaneously enter the "zone," it is a strong virtually unshakeable belief in an uncertain outcome with an edge in your favor. The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe, without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that "anything can happen."
They don't just suspect that anything can happen or give lip service to the idea. Their belief in uncertainty is so powerful that it actually prevents their minds from associating the "now moment" situation and circumstance with the outcomes of their most recent trades.By preventing this association, they are able to keep their minds free of unrealistic and rigid expectations about how the market will express itself. Instead of generating the kind of unrealistic expectations that more often than not result in both emotional and financial pain, they have learned to "make themselves available" to take advantage of whatever opportunities the market may offer in any given moment.
"Making yourself available" is a perspective from which you understand that the framework from which you are perceiving information is limited relative to what's being offered.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 266
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 11:12 am: |
|
HC,
I'm getting a 'feeling' about Telecom co's [other than Telstra acoarse].Watching the New Highs is kicking up these broadband companies etc.Like even Singapore came up recently and then got hammered but it's down to the long term trend nearly and even though it's a bit 'ponderous' for my taste[Singapore],I just keep getting the feeling the Big Money is running to Telstra Competitors.
I'm in CDR and PWK[looking at Go Connect] to back my interest but I was just wondering if you had any views,even if they're "scary"!
ps-stuck the Query here because of ease in download time!
Dig for it.
|
stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 155
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 05:01 pm: |
|
Holycow,
I have read with great attention your postings on this thread.
Your - or much better said - the Fibonacci`s Theory is from a very great intelligence, but PLEASE SHOW US ALL THE SOLUTION TO BE APPLIED IN SOLVING A PRACTICAL EXPERIMENT USING THIS THEORY.
Take for your example, we say: THE STERICORP STRING OF VALUES FROM 2000 TO 2005. Make also, your corelating analyses FA (because about the STP.AX we can say is FUNDAMENTAL A PHANTOM) and TA, AND PLEASE SHOW US HOW WE SHOULD TO MAKE A FORECAST=PREDICTION, so that we should know where will be the RIGHT ENTRY POINT and where will be THE RIGHT EXIT POINT, because in many situation encountered on the markets, it is exactly like you said:
" in IA there's no precision maths involved, what we have is fuzzy logic; don't get too hung up with precise support/resistance level and don't get too bogged down by yor price projection; like wise forget about precise ratios and average PE because these are used to fool those who want to believe in them; what is important is "that" sense of proportion; the commonsense deduction and to an extent, the fuzzy future trend"
I asked you to give a practical example, at first because i did it so already and you not, and second: because it seems that EVERY BODY=each of us HAVE THE HOLY GRAIL IN THE HAND and despite of this, nobody can be so wise to (for)see where the TRUTH lies?
Regards,
Doru Stoian
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 268
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 05:41 pm: |
|
Greetings stoian,
you've got a half dozen threads running on this 'track'.
You've even got betalong prepared to work on your theory/system/path to enlightenment whatever.
How about you go back to those threads and work it out.
Yeah,it's me stoian dogalog.I didn't appreciate you stepping on my question about Stockbrokers/Market Makers in New Issue in AUSTRALIA[systems].You just flash on a term and go running off on it with incomprehensible Statistical Jargon.
You have to just stick with those who have a clue of what you're talking about.Me?I only know the probabilities of drawing to fill an inside straight at cards.That's all I want to know on such a dead dull boring topic.
Get a Grip,stoian Mate.
No need for a reply because I won't be to you.
neccessary regards.
Dig for it.
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1742
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 06:21 pm: |
|
Stoian,
You have made your point. It's noted. Thank you.
I am not too keen to have a debate with you. Just assume I am wrong if you like.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 158
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 05:06 am: |
|
holycow,
I have never said you are wrong. I like your idea about Intelligence Analyse very much, because that brings together FA and TA, and why not even the SMA.
That was not my intention. All that i have intended in my posting for you, was to invite you to show us, how your theory will be working practically, because you say:
"According to William O'Neill, Baruch defines "speculator" as a person who observes and acts before the future occurs... I guess this makes all the necessary spywork and intelligence gathering using both FA and TA very much an exercise in IA - Intelligence Analysis. In my context at least."
I deeply agree whit what William O`Neill is saying what Baruch (Spinoza????) understand through "speculator" and you are even guessing.
In fact, the SUBSTITUTION METHOD used by the Math, or the also called APES BEHAVIOUR is exactly so old like mankind.
An acquaintance of mine, from the forum www.vanguard.ro is also saying ever:"You have to be intelligent indeed, to understand how stupid you are!".
Regards,
Doru Stoian
|
stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 159
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 05:15 am: |
|
dug,
Greetings to you, too!
I have at least to be polite.
Regards,
Doru Stoian
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1744
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 08:48 am: |
|
Stoain,
"In fact, the SUBSTITUTION METHOD used by the Math, or the also called APES BEHAVIOUR is exactly so old like mankind.
An acquaintance of mine, from the forum www.vanguard.ro is also saying ever:"You have to be intelligent indeed, to understand how stupid you are!". "
... don't tell me your acquaintance was looking at you when he said that... Anyway, you seem to have learnt that very well. I have to congratulate you. I hope you can see why I am not keen to have a discussion with you. I will stop here - our interests are too far apart.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1808
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 10:26 am: |
|
One of a very useful strategy in IA is to stay out of the market - jmv here. Like the fishermen, when the sea becomes too rough, they stay onshore mending fishing nets and doing maintenance work on their boats. It makes sense for them not to go against mother nature. It's a good strategy to stay alive and live for future prosperity. Likewise, it's NOT a bad idea for a stock trader to copy the fishermen's tactic to step aside and choose to fight in more favourable condition. In the current market condition, it's your survival that matters... not profit. In a sea that is festered with sharks, the small fish don't stand a chance... and here's a fact - if you are reading this message, you are a small fish!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1852
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, October 14, 2005 - 09:27 am: |
|
I'd just like to draw your attention to this post if you are reading...
THE "UNCERTAINTY" PRINCIPLE
If there is such a thing as a secret to the nature of trading, this is it: At the very core of one's ability 1) to trade without fear or overconfidence, 2) perceive what the market is offering from its perspective, 3) stay completely focused in the "now moment opportunity flow," and 4) spontaneously enter the "zone," it is a strong virtually unshakeable belief in an uncertain outcome with an edge in your favor. The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe, without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that "anything can happen."...
*** I don't know who the author is coz I sucked this out from an Arabic forum! But I could see they appreciate what this guy is saying and I too can appreciate what he is saying. Anyway, this is not what I want to talk about.
I meant to ask you to consider just one point, which is slightly out of context from what he is saying, ie, trading fearlessly and overconfidently - are you falling into this category? If you think you are, may be you want to stop for a moment to do a self appraisal. It's always at the top that most people feel invincible and it's at this point that they show the greatest conviction to their market belief!
... even to the extent of brushing aside and ignoring the many "danger" signals that are so OBVIOUS and PREVALENT in the current market.
Am I hinting something? You bet I am. Am I going to point them out to you? Nope! Been there done that before and this time I just want to watch.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 160
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, October 14, 2005 - 09:36 am: |
|
Think I recognise that as a quote from one of Mark Douglas's books.
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1853
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, October 14, 2005 - 09:45 am: |
| | |
