KZL stll going strong

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peterloh

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Monday, April 03, 2006 - 05:25 pm:

With regards to palmtress I have transferred this to the long term trade. I couldn't find the other thread.Here is the chart.Still holding since december 2005.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

palmtrees

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Monday, April 03, 2006 - 06:31 pm:

Well done Peterloh.Analysts say this is "The Year of Zinc" so I hope you do well.I obviously cashed in way to early and that mistake cost me nearly $1 per security.Your coolness in the face of volatility is to be applauded.
All the best, Mark

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peterloh

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Tuesday, April 04, 2006 - 09:48 am:

palmtrees,

Thanks for your compliments, it is not my coolness in this case, it is more to our different approach to trading.Yours is a short term approach probably you decide to exit due to KZl breaching your guidelines.Whereas if you look at my chart above, there is no indication or warning that I should exit.

best wishes

satitoca

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Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 07:50 am:

Hi Peterloh
what made you keep during a 25% decline in price in feb?
regards Satitoca

peterloh

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Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 10:47 am:

Scott,

I actually bought more in February, if you read my previous KZL thread.My determination to sell is not base on daily but weekly chart, but I do use daily chart to time my entry and exit.The weekly chart will tell the story and the long shadows tell us that the sellers are not having it all their way.

satitoca

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Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 11:38 am:

Peterloh
Thank you for the reply .finding it hard to come to terms of a 25%hit even if showing a 50/70%profit.I wouldnt be able to sleep and probably feel ill aswell .each to there own thank you again for reply.
regards Satitoca

peterloh

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Wednesday, April 05, 2006 - 01:00 pm:

Scott,

I have to admit at times I was going to toss it in. It is a psychological game isn't it? I always stretch that FA is so important and know your subject.One thing I watch out for is the volume, when it is going up, and the volume when it is going down.It is not too bad if you have a portfolio to manage, something like that is going to happen to one of your share at one time or another.It is a part of trading I always have to live with.I was trading ION, SGW, HWE and got out after a 10% hit because something was not quite right.Understanding the reason for it going up and the reason for it going down is also important besides what the chart tell us, helps.

peterloh

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Tuesday, April 11, 2006 - 03:33 pm:

Is the volume telling us something that we don't know? Who DARES Wins? Must be mad to keep on toping up.

rederob

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Tuesday, April 11, 2006 - 08:12 pm:

Peter
You would be mad if the stock was likely to decline in the medium term.
It is not.
It will undergo a sharp correction shortly, but bounce strongly again, as the zinc market is getting much tighter every day.
I set my limit at 10,000 shares, but could break that rule if the correction is strong enough to warrant a re-entry.
My view is that this is the safest commodity stock play at the lower end of the price scales.

peterloh

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Tuesday, April 11, 2006 - 09:41 pm:

Robert, you will think the accumulation process was done some time ago.I have noted the recent SP rise has been accompanied by volume.This will continue until the buying has "thin" off or a large holder re balance its portfolio.I notice the strong recovery yesterday, after it was sold off early in the morning.Any retracement will be seen as an opportunity to add on to one's portfolio.It also looks like demand is greater than supply currently.If their hedge book has been reduced substantially or completely retired, there is a likely hood of substantial improvement in the second half's result. The quarterly result should be out soon.

dug

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Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 03:32 pm:

I'm interested in your HedgeBook remark above ,Peter.Redebob also discusses elsewhere Hedging,or rather the lack of it in Resource Companies as being really good in the current climate of Commodity BOOM.

In regards to KZL,do they have any other Zinc mines other than Qld's Chillagoe? because if they don't?well it seems their whole production is ear-marked to go into Korea Zincs' Townsville smelter.Korea Zinc recently doubled their Holding in KZL to 14% around the time some of your favorite Funds,Peter,sold out.

Anyway,to save me the time of wading thru pages of Annual Reports,do either you Peter or r2r know what the relationship is between KZL and Korea Zinc is?Like do they have a price agreement[Hedge] set up between themselves?

My understanding of Asian Companies is very limited,I'm the first to admit but I have an impression they [asian companies] are much more co-operative between themselves to the extent of what we may see as Monopolistic,they see as co-operative or symbiotic.The Elder,Bigger,More Important Company THRIVES and subsidiaries get 'looked after',that sort of thing.

Peter did you read any reason WHY AMP and Common Bank got out of KZL months ago?

Anyway,lots of questions that I should really find my own answers to but,well,just thought I'd ask them who may have answers at their fingertips.
regards.

Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

peterloh

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Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 04:04 pm:

Dug,

I do my own research and do not pay due respect to every fund managers who have their own measurement. For all I know they still have a holding, may be not substantial any more.I have my original holding which I bought at $1.85, a few months back. I have also traded KZL and pleased to say that I have some luck trading it short term too.

Besides, the above, I need not know anymore, as too much may blur my vision.So far I am contended with their share price and with a pinch of luck, KZL may have some way to go yet. Anyway that is my wishful thinking, forever optimistic. Have a nice week end and Happy Easter.Have to agree with Rob about putting any more to it, other then to leave the original to ride the trend.

Best wishes

rederob

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Saturday, April 15, 2006 - 11:22 am:

dug
KZL has no hedges on zinc, but does on copper and lead.
Although the original copper and lead hedge prices were good value, the runaway train of commodities sees these hedges with a negative mark to market of over $7m.
The good news is that their zinc margins are now over $1 per pound and rising.
I will look into the forward hedges to see how long it will be before the commitments are met.

peterloh

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Thursday, April 27, 2006 - 02:12 pm:

Which is the most likely direction for KZL now, up or down?

peterloh

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Monday, June 19, 2006 - 02:04 pm:

Action here today. Big volume last Thursday - something is cooking. What is it? An announcement coming, upgrade of resources and reserves? A strong up day when general market is down especially resources. I hold KZL from
dec/Jan this year and bought more last week.

peterloh

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Monday, June 19, 2006 - 10:30 pm:

rederob,

What is your view on KZL now? Have taking a punt by puting in another 1.5 times of your stipulated limit.This new one is for a short term trade. Korea Zinc reported increase in holdings probably through creeping up on percentage allowed.The volume on last Thursday and the quick run up today, gives me a feeling something may be on in KZL but cannot pin point what it is.Any idea Dug?

dug

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Tuesday, June 20, 2006 - 09:28 am:

Back to Main Trend line.

Cheek by jowl with Zinifex.

Notices yesterday of Possible reserve up grade and increase holding by Korea Zinc.Institutions don't seem to like Korea Zinc?Sold previously on holding increase?
Volume since Thursday lowish for such an increase,especially yesterday.
What are your thoughts,Peter Loh on breakouts,large percent price increases with only mediocre volume?

cheers.

Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

peterloh

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Tuesday, June 20, 2006 - 10:45 am:

dug,

After posting I read of KZL discovery of more commercial zinc find in their backyard. Earlier on I read of Korea Zinc increasing their holding in KZL.

As to your question whether you need volume for the price to be sustain, my answer is yes.Many regard the day of the increase for the volume to occur is important.Taking a long term view,there must be volume and in KZL's case volume occur last Thursday.My interpretation is, if the volume is small it is due mainly to speculative buying in anticipation of the news to come(day traders) and as soon as they leave, the SP will fall.If there is volume, there is a likely hood of a large buyer coming in, and it is likely that it will be for the longer term.A large buyer will not pay for any price on that day but do their accumulation when everyone is selling earlier on.To me, volume is important and may not be necessary on the day of the SP rise but would be a good indication if close to the day. My interpretation to yesterday's sharp price rise is shorts covering and day traders speculative trade.Korea Zinc need not top up their holding as their current holding may or may not already has an influence on KZL's Board.The fact that they increase their holding is an indication they have faith in the industry and in this situation in the future of KZL and KZL's ability to do well.I do not know whether there is any future intention for a take over or the merging of the operations for mutual benefits.I regard what is going on as positive to KZL.Having say that, I declare my position that I am long on KZL and recently increased my stake.In this situation my position may be biased and should not be relied on for your individual situation.

dug

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Tuesday, June 20, 2006 - 03:28 pm:

Are you keeping an eye,Peter,on the Algorhytmic trading in KZL?
That's the small parcel buy/sells done by computers for Institutions and Hedge Funds.They don't pay transaction costs like us so they dribble out every minute or so small parcels that ADD UP at the end of the day.
When I looked at KZL Course of Sales just now,seemed to me a Lot of these "Algae Trades"on the Board.

I've "sophisticated" up my thinking on these micro-parcels.I'm thinking now most trades under say $5000 are Algae.I watch now if they are meeting the Bid or the Ask and draw conclusions on BigBoy Action ie Where the REAL money is going,are the Algae buying or selling?

Big Buys or Sells,say 50 grand+,well do they flow with the Algae[professional]or could they be just some DIY Super 'punter'?
It all gives me something to think about when I'm not dreaming about what I'll spend my paper-profits on!!

Off for d'Close.
cheers,
jr

Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

peterloh

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Tuesday, June 20, 2006 - 03:42 pm:

dug,

Agree with you that intos,big trader may have other sophisticated means of getting under our guard.If some one is buying big, there is no way they should project what their intention are.Nowadays I try to ignore market depth as a big seller won't show their hand like wise a big buyer won't do either.You could have stumble on something that we don't know of. I will made it an effort to find out and let you know as soon I have this information on hand.A good observation, dug.

dug

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Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 09:20 am:

Peter,
I received an email from the ASX confirming Algorhytmic Trading.That's what 'THEY" called it and had this positive spin that Algae Trading prevented large Orders from eliminating great swathes of Market Depth all in one go by large orders swamping.ie 'They' saw it as Positive,an improvement on the old days.
With the elimination of Broker Name who's Dealing from broker screens,Algae Trading allows anominity of BIG Plays and Players.Seems in the past one could get this info and be Alert[if not alarmed]that say Overseas Brokers were leading the price move in a particular share.

Anyway,Algae Trading is here now and I use which way it's going[Buy or Sell]as some indication of where the BigMoney stands.Especially with them Selling because if given the chance[Bids]they seem to still come the partial swamp down the Market Depth.I think the data of Number in the Depth Ask is fed into their Computer and calculation of how many to sell into it is thus calculated.That's why you see these odd numbers in the Course of Sales like 437 at $2.56 say.

It[algae trading] has been an improvement on Uboats turning up on the Depth but it has allowed large number movements buy/sold without alerting Mr'n'Mrs[Ms] Public in on Their Act.

Anyway,I didn't want you,Peter,going to trouble to find out what I already know about Algae Trading.
cheers,
jr

Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

peterloh

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Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 10:49 am:

Dug,

Thank you for taking the trouble to find out.Much appreciated and this confirm your suspicion.

regards,

rederob

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Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 07:45 pm:

Peter,
Just discovered your question - apologies;
you previously asked:
rederob,
What is your view on KZL now? Have taking a punt by puting in another 1.5 times of your stipulated limit.This new one is for a short term trade. Korea Zinc reported increase in holdings probably through creeping up on percentage allowed.The volume on last Thursday and the quick run up today, gives me a feeling something may be on in KZL but cannot pin point what it is.Any idea Dug?

My view is that KZL remains one of the safest commodity plays in 2006 FULL STOP.
Zinc inventories will continue to decline as this year draws on, so any technical bearishness will soon give way to ongoing fundamental strength.
On the retrace I did add to my KZL holding and now have 12500 - so rules are only to be broken; a bit like records!}

peterloh

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Wednesday, June 21, 2006 - 11:17 pm:

rederob,

It is comforting to know that you have considered KZL as a low risk commodity play as I have quite a few in my self managed fund and my general portfolio.For a while I was concern, that you think 10,000 is to be the maximum exposure.I have to be careful with commodities, because most of them are only for growth and do not pay dividends which could be use for servicing interest.

Best Wishes

peterloh

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Thursday, August 24, 2006 - 12:28 pm:

I have not put this one in the current portfolio for the day because of the current SP. However it is still in my portfolio, bought in December/January this year with curtesy of palmtree's post.

rederob

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Thursday, August 24, 2006 - 08:10 pm:

Peter
It was interesting to see KZL rise today while ZFX was sold down after reporting a billion dollar profit and announcing a 70cent fully franked dividend.
I had a $10.85 buy bid in the market (from last week) and picked up 2500 shares as ZFX plummeted!
From a fundamental perspective one of the more interesting recent trends has been an increase of zinc stock cancellations from warehouses other than New Orleans.
With the northern summer slow-season about to end, I expect cancellation rates for zinc will pick up slightly and further tighten a market that has seen almost 400,000 tonnes leave LME warehouses in the past year.
At present there is nowhere that I can see excess zinc is available, and producers have, over the past 2 years, ramped output to close to capacity.
As I posted earlier, of the metal plays, zinc is the safest in my view and has yet to hit its straps.

msparks

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Thursday, August 24, 2006 - 09:22 pm:

Hi all
Interesting how bhp and zfx report fantastic profit and get sold down, what sort of expectations are out there ?

Off topic again, interesting the algae trading Dug.
I think this is a better way than the old way where people in the know , knew who was buying and selling, seems fairer with the algae method.

Here is how deutsche bank exited HSP , the announcement was 6 days before the price jump today.

They play both sides, so i cannot see how observing the small trades gives a direction Dug. ? Maybe this is not algae trading ?
Seems a bit like manipulation, if you have enough cash,and are on both sides, anything is possible.

KZL is a great looking chart.
Will it retest the breakout ?

peterloh

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Thursday, August 24, 2006 - 11:19 pm:

It is always good to have a commodities expert like rdr to guide us along in this sector.MS, if I were to add more on to KZL or as a short term trader,I will buy on retest of support line if I missed the initial breakout.Never expect KZL to turn out this way, as I initially treated it as a short term trade, but discovered it has legs, and there was no justification for me to get rid of it because of its merits, any volatility in KZL was mainly along with the general market, so there is still hope for me that it will go on further than this, especially KZL is in blue sky currently in the daily chart as shown by MS and travelling along the channel in the weekly chart.

Since dug pointed out,I notice the pacman eating the sellers or the algae in distribution mode when they were unloading.

tryhay

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Friday, April 13, 2007 - 09:31 pm:

Some time since posting on KZL. If it can respect 200D_SMA looks like a low risk short term play IMO:

Daily chart: Little bit to early to confidently say found bottom but may just be making HH & HL

kzl

Watching listed

wombat40

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Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 04:10 pm:

flag or pennant?

wombat40

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Saturday, April 28, 2007 - 10:59 pm:

..done the flagpole thingy.....and reached a target..lets see how it goes....

tryhay

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Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - 09:19 pm:

Not sure what Zn is doing, but kzl looks to be heading higher ~ say to $7.22 in the interim.

Daily chart:

: kzl

Recently topped up

(Message edited by tryhay on November 20, 2007)

tryhay

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Saturday, November 24, 2007 - 01:19 pm:

Perhaps time to top up again?

Daily chart:

kzl

I reckon $7.81 reasonable target (ar la fib)

(Message edited by tryhay on November 24, 2007)

tryhay

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Wednesday, January 07, 2009 - 08:57 am:

Some time since posting on this little gem, and what a difference a year (or two) makes ~ back to 2002 lows....

Bought in end of year and looking to take some profit (as it may be going to retest MA). If MACD signal line breaks zero then may just bounce with the reast of the market..

Chart:

kzl

CC picked it some weeks ago in the competition and may just be responding to rising tide.....

Happy trading DYOR

mook

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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 05:40 am:

Hi hershy, I like the chart you post to illustrate KZL's fortune in another thread. I see this one to be good enough to be on its own. I just found this thread.
I agree with you there are a couple of gaps that have to be closed and I expect this to be done soon.I am fairly bullish on KZL.Have a good trading day, guys.PS: I hope peter doesn't mind me stealing his thunder.

stampy

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 08:08 pm:

Thanks for the thoughts guys. Bought some today. looks good going forward.
Regards Stampy

stampy

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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 08:13 pm:

this is the way i see KZL
. For what its worth.

baysider

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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 07:35 am:

I too joined the party yesterday at 81c.
Below is a paraphrase of a very bullish article by Chalrie Aitkin of Southern Cross which Mook was interested in.

Quite along piece which I'll try and paraphrase:
1 treat like IPO since recapitalisation - different beast now now, no debt.
2 Base price is 70-78c but does not take into account any new projects or rising prices. Full valuation 1.83.
3 Expects to move above $1 quite quickly
4 Cost of production was never more than sales prices even at lowest market point. - Good upside to come
5 10% rise in copper prices will lead to 50% increase in FY10 earnings - good leverage.
6 Still to play catch up with OZL and MRE which recapitalised earlier. See how they've gone.

Baysider

peterloh

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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 08:58 am:

Hi baysider, a few years ago, when I was still "shy" of the resources, there was a small cap that I researched and bought 10,000 at $1.60, a standard purchase those days. If you go to the top of the post, you will find it was KZL.I had it for some time till I got rid of it at about $4.50, a year or more later, I do not care for details as it was one of my normal trades.

Today, I am less shy of resources and able to evolve a new strategy after 40 years of trading. I have been through the times, the highs and the lows, still in the business.I have been through the works, both fundamentals, previously my bread and butter, technical analysis, 20 years helps, but I have to accept changes, now I am very comfortable with what I am doing and without stress.

I tried to share some of my ideas with the fraternity here, but my ideas were rejected. There could be some that could have similar ideas, but no one came forward.I am telling you this because of your pointing out the Southern Cross to me, and then I read an article of David Paradice, a much respected, small cap manager, I find that I am not "mad" now.They are others that think the same but get paid for doing their work and giving advice. As the days and months unfold, I believe my eyes are truly open now, and I am able to see things well ahead. I must be careful here and not be complacent in what I do. So far things are going the right way. I thought I timed my entry well in March 2003, I did better in March 2009 as everything has been magnified for me.

Yes, I am revisiting KZL, but this time I am better prepared.

baysider

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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 09:47 am:

Thanks Peter

I'm distinctly a novice and will take any help or advice you care to give. You clearly have been trading this stock for a long time and know it much better than me. I consider it a 'risk' stock and have only a very small holding to test the waters. I'm not convinced we won't see a pull back at this time.

Baysider

peterloh

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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 12:26 pm:

baysider, KZL is a different animal from what it was when I first traded it. It seems to be in many of the base metals now. It used to be only in zinc and lead.With improved base metal prices, this one is likely to break from its recent high fairly soon.It is like a miniature BHP without oil and iron ore. However,its copper, nickel,zinc and lead are doing well now . Its gold resources shouldn't fare too badly either with gold prices near an all time high. Any positive report will see its SP goes higher.

baysider

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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 03:13 pm:

Look at her go today, another 12% as I write, choice!
PS AQA looks like it's broken the upside as well, sorry I can't post the chart.

Baysider

mook

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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 08:03 pm:

Hi baysider and stampy, I just realised EQN posted by our resident chartist, hershy look exactly like that posted by stampy on KZL. I hope EQN does the same too as it is a proven copper producer.

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stampy

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Wednesday, July 29, 2009 - 08:26 pm:

Hi Sir Peter, Mook, Baysider, Hershy

I sold out of KZL today. 91.5 near the open. Not the best level but a lovely little win in a week. just s little focused on the resistance at $1. Will look for a buy above 1.1. Thanks for the charts and thoughts.
Regards
Stampy