| Author |
Message |
     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1152
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, June 02, 2006 - 05:07 pm: |  
|
Aluminum-to dirt add Bulk Electricity and HEY Presto!!
Aluminium is a bit too specialised and 'Dirty' for me.I suggest you follow rederob and his comments for following it as a Material GOer.I think it[aluminium] is pretty well a Monopoly of ALCOA Inc.and frankly I don't want to know about it unless Capral makes a comeback from d'Gutter,becomes a flying fallen angel.
AWC's chart suggests to me that it may have stepped up a Dollar or so from it's previous Channel/Gutter to now float along $6.50/8 but I'd want some Input re its[AWC's] angles from China.There is most probably NONE[other than AWC's "bit' of Alcoa]
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
|
tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 227
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 11:31 am: |
|
Hello Dug
AWC looks to have lots of interest today (breakout from downtrend) and is staring at Fully franked dividend within the next month. UBS is recommending it ~ which is good cause none of the indicators looks attractive except for the bounce today IMO.
Even if they do get their hands dirty looks like a good setup
Daily chart
I topped up today
Mark
(Message edited by tryhay on August 03, 2006)
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1326
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 12:20 pm: |
|
From a chart view-may be just geometry like going to end up sideways not double bottoming.Not too good that 50 break,lower low etc blah.
Don't know any FA update on how aluminium is going.It's excessive use of electricity is very detrimental IMHO.
they should run them on Ethanol!!at least try,hey?
Dig for the sake of it.
|
tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 229
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 12:32 pm: |
|
Yes dug only time will tell (more likely need to reach for the aspros as 'they' try to shake out the weak in heart if AWC does slide sideways) but AWC is prone to volatile gapping and channel ranging in the past (ar la ~6 months ago when it bounced with a group of three thingies).
On another point, the wind you can feel, (mentioned by some on IC in other threads) may be from those BIO teck shares you are keen on is probably methane/hydrogen sulphide (or swamp gas) so I wouldn't stand too close to the bottom draWER (if that is where you keep them).
Unfortunately I have to do something more productive that IC banter now dug - Have a nice day 
PS CBH still sliding sideways :-(
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2572
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 12:52 pm: |
|
AWC weekly
1) gentlemen, could this be a potential H&S?
2) to produce AL, I believe, is energy intensive, which makes it a "derivative" of energy play. I think AL is plagued by high cost of energy plus keen competition from China as well as from SE Asia.
3) the weekly chart shows the sp right now is sitting on a 4-yr trend line. If it breaks down, it could mean it may be facing quite a serious problem in its future "numbers"
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1858
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 04, 2006 - 01:37 am: |
|
dug
I can only say that anybody not buying into AWC right now is likely to miss about a 20% return in 6 months.
The stock is supported fundamentally by almost any yardstick you want to measure it by.
Aluminium stocks at LME and SHFE warehouses have started to leave at increasing rates.
|
tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 232
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 04, 2006 - 08:40 am: |
|
I appreciate the interest in AWC and the comments have been instructive.
I would be happy with ~10% gain and I'm expecting that to occur within this month (because of the dividend play).
A close stop loss will guard against a possible breakdown (as indicated by HC ~ thanks very much!) and further long term call warrants should allow leverage into the probable improve in aluminium prices later this year early next.
Holding both shares and warrants.
mark
|
peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1968
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 04, 2006 - 01:51 pm: |
|
JR,tryhay,rederob,
AWC does not look very attractive at this level. I have decided to jump on to the bandwagon today.With dividends going ex on the 9th, august, we may see some action soon.
With Best wishes,
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1335
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 04, 2006 - 03:19 pm: |
|
I don't know about this one,like I try hey to inculcate to d'calculation r2r's gung-ho on materials but,well "They" don't seem to be responding today to yesterday's Announcement too well.
2pm VWAP 629 which is only about 10cents [the dividend]up on the Day before announcement.But it's a down day so that's why,right?
I would of thought it would have done more of a Kick along today,but I'm still using past expectations.These days it seems a positive report is a signal to tread water not sprout some wings and whack on 10% to take out ol' worry warts misgivings.
I see tryhay you're from Woolongong so you're familiar with Industrial Enviromental Shenanigans but I think I saw AWC on d'Telly a while back getting roasted for ruining the SW corner of WA.Aluminium is a messy business.No wonder THEY are worried about China doing their own production.No probs there with Greenies!!and sundry others who like fresh air!
Anyway,you've got ya Stop in place.Watch out for a post-Div gap.
Happy Trading.
jr
Dig for the sake of it.
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1336
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 04, 2006 - 04:01 pm: |
|
Uboat on d'Ask at 34;Algo[small parcel] Buying in 30's;stick a 100k+# bid in at 30's you're accomodated.
Supply and Demand Live to Air.
who says screen watching is boring!!
Dig for the sake of it.
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1337
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 04, 2006 - 04:09 pm: |
|
Whoosh Uboat is off the screen.Not met but came by for a Come'n'Get me if you want.You'll just have to trust I'm not Delusional and the Uey was REAL!!
what is the Number to Qualify as a Uboat?is it a $value or a #parcel?
Dig for the sake of it.
|
peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1970
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Friday, August 04, 2006 - 05:35 pm: |
|
I am quietly optimistic with this one.After a sharp rise, I expect a retracement. This gives me an opportunity to get on, yesterday I was only debating whether I should be "chasing it".Iam leaning to rdr estimation, JR.
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
|
tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 234
Registered: 09-2005
|
Auto-Fit Trendlines