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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1187
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 15, 2006 - 09:33 am: |  
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Fell into my hands again yesterday.Not just because it has taken over the ground of BHP around Broken Hill is CBH a sentimental favorite.
Consolidating it's Holdings in western NSW,CBH has Infrastructure and is Producing Silver,Zinc even bought a Gold Prospect recently etc.etc.
Should stay above 30 centsish from now on.
Long Term chart.Back later to chat about it.
Happy Trading.
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 207
Registered: 09-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 09, 2006 - 11:13 am: |
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Hello Dug,
CBH looks like it has respected the LT MA (& the ST trend line) and both the weekly and daily TMF is pointing up ~ so all things being equal it should bolt out of the blocks (right?)
Daily chart:
I own and intend on topping up on Monday 
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1254
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 09, 2006 - 12:40 pm: |
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I'm confused by CBH,tryhay.
It's biggest shareholder recently topped up at 41cents.
The Traiko takeover was based on CBH being 51 cents.
That big shareholder[some Japanese Zinc processor]has organised a massive Yen Loan for CBH to be diversifying out of single mine Broken Hill area.Loan Terms seem to set-up CBH for future take-over if not proper financing instead of diluting the Register.
This is ALL good news,indicators,right tryhay?but why is the share price so 'lack lustre'?
I got out at 36 and missed getting back in at 32.5.I'm getting the impression this may fall into a range again maybe 34/35 to 40/42 tops?
I just can't find the reason why this fell so much from the 50's[other than Market at time] but I don't like that it hasn't bounced back above at least 40 on significant Volume quick smart.I don't just pass it off as tax-selling,no one significant is Buying at this Level,it'sjust selling.
There is no Eagerness to back this 'good investment ' in d'Materials Sector?Are the Jap Shareholder seen as a Hang-Over Holder?So kind of detriment?Future price depressor?
For example,This could result in the Traiko Deal folding,expense to CBH for nothing.
There's certainly long term potential in CBH but I wouldn't let short term price fluctuation just go by.I'm looking to trade this short term with a core long term parcel yet to be bought.Have you done d'Aspect/Huntley value on this ,tryhey? 96 cents "They"reckon.
Something is Happening but I don't know what it is...yet.
cheers.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1256
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 09, 2006 - 02:05 pm: |
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My CBH charts
Longwhile
Up Close.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 208
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 09, 2006 - 02:56 pm: |
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No cause for alarm Dug ~ just been catching up on zzzzzzz
One reason I like this share is I worked in western NSW and so I know the quality of the ore lode they are currently mining and may mine in future (at Broken Hill). I also like the end to end production to port approach, and they will soon not be a one mine outfit, but multiple mines in various commodities.
The method of mining they use at Cobar (ar la concrete stope replacement) reduces the recovery on one hand (because they end up processing concrete with the ore recovered) but it means that they get all the ore from the section being mined on the other(pretty novel approach).
The poor SP late last year resulted from stope collapse, and I think the SP reflects a jaundiced public/instu ~ but I cant argue with the technical chart (maybe with a stop loss at 30c? Furthermore, the price of zinc and the zinc technical/fundamentals mean I expect this one to bounce (as do Traiko and others).
I'm only looking at a short term trade (to 50 or bit more) - and am not planning on topping up to ludricus numbers (100,000) until it behaves in uptrend.
By the way I'm not into Huntleys or others - and my UBS broker dont know about much outside the top 200 but he likes the brokerage and will compare charts on request.
PS I notice that:
* RSI coming back to 50
* MACD now +ve
* OBV slightly rising
* the herbs and spices looking pretty good
I dont have to understand the computer working/s to post this - & I'm confident enough in CBH to increase my position ~ not for the Super Fund yet
Mark
(Message edited by tryhay on July 09, 2006)
(Message edited by tryhay on July 09, 2006)
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1258
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 09, 2006 - 04:48 pm: |
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Yeah I'm not alarmedbut Alert
Seems to me there is a Degree of Vertical Monopoly going on with this Jap Zincer.[much like the Koreans and KZL]
Yes CBH is diversifying it's Mining Sites.That's excellent.
But CBH is still "Old time Producing" as in,Tryhay,are you aware that r2r scorns CBH?and that archer thinks CBH is run by 'morons'?It's all in their [CBH's] sale in advance of it's Silver and the use of Hedging,that's what gets r2r/archer "snickering".
You can see the reasons Why if you put CBH up comparitively with KZL and Zinifex.
CBH IS going over OldGround,tryhay.Maybe that's WHY they are setting their stock in Concrete!!
All in all,CBH is a definite long term play but,well,personally at the moment I'm thinking that a lot of d'HotMoney,like the Oz day2day speculate money is tied up in AUM.
How do you think a $7 AUM gottaBinit share is going over with the "Dare2Make it",spiv crew like at Cold Steel/Hot Cobalt,whatever it's called,hmmm tryhey?
cheers,
jr
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 210
Registered: 09-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 09, 2006 - 05:38 pm: |
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Pleased to see you are Alert Dug
Even our Uranium explorers/wannabe producers are using the "old economy" approach (without the mining industry our country would be stuffed).
I can not make investing decisions based on the prejudice of others ~ even if their opinions are valid.
Seed money for mining development capital expenditure does not grow on trees ~ and with production at Cobar ~<50% still (and the required modification in stope construction increasing production costs) at least the directors are sourcing funds from willing investors. Taking pot shots at past decisions made by CBH directors before silver price took off is for the birds ~ no offence intended guys.
The two +ve events happening for CBH currently are listed below:
* Zinc Concentrate Sales Arrangements to provide $30 million to CBH.
The funds to be provided by Toho will be directed towards the Company’s equity requirements for its planned new development of the Sulphur Springs zinc-copper deposit in Western Australia and the Broken Hill zinc–lead-silver project in New South Wales
* CBH Resources and WRF Securities to Negotiate Joint Venture Agreement for the Constance Range Iron Ore Project
Granted the hot money is in AUM (looks like most from this forum missed out) and rather than vegetate I think CBH is worth a punt ~ DYOR etc.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 211
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 10, 2006 - 07:16 pm: |
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More bongo drums for CBH Company Announcements Office: "The Company advises that the offer period (for Triako Resources Ltd) is now extended to close at 7.00 pm (Sydney time) on 3 August 2006". This is likely another factor in producing the wierd Sp recently.
So I bought into GBG this-morning and hesitated on CBH. I can not get over CBH's narrowing Bollinger bands (may be +ve or -ve) and the rising OBV and other select indicators (ERBR etc) are screaming buy ~ not to mention the spinning top today at the top of friday's candle. Bit of MA resistance seems to be causing hesitation in the SP right about here - am expecting it to go to ~40c soon.
I think I'll just have to satisfy the plan here Dug and top up tomorrow.
Mark
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1259
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 09:19 am: |
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Not enough Traiko shareholders are accepting CBH's Offer,tryhay.
It won't be 'Good' if CBH has to make some Cash incentive as well as issue shares to take it over.
perhaps check buying Traiko at the moment?back door entry to 3 shares in CBH +small cash 'bonus'? I haven't done the maths on that.I just think CBH could be back to 34 even 32 again before it's 40.
Yesterday was a 'Bad' reversal.As I said earlier Only the Sellers are Keen,there's is minimal buying pressure above about 35 but I'm not reading your exotic indicators of certainty so you follow your plan.
cheers,
jr
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1260
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 04:28 pm: |
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Today was a WORSE Reversal than yesterday!!
Even though it ended UP!!
A Gap reversal,deadman's candle in candlespeak or something.
BtW,tryhay a single clown at 10:39:10am buying 6500 at 40 cents Don't Count as a BreakOut!!
I figure CBH is under some dark cloud.
AGM is bashing at resistance 31.That's my Go.
cheers,
jr
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1278
Registered: 07-2005
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| | Saturday, July 15, 2006 - 02:09 pm: |
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Any advances on Bullish thinking,tryhay?I can't get past CBH going mid/low 30 cents again say 34.
put in two downtrend lines.I figure both are "Valid".Read somewhere that cutting thru wicks on candles is "Acceptable".
Worse feature of past week is those rising reds.
Everyday it closed Lower than it Opened yet still higher than the previous day's Close.[It's not my fault if that don't make sense to you!!]See also the Two previous times that it rose in d'Red.Note subsequent reaction.
Imagine the Traiko take-over target shareholders.
They get a letter valuing their Traiko at $2[3.5 cbh shares at 50.1 cents+about 20 cents in Cash]=$2 BUT with CBH so down?well they[the Traikoers] can't be too Wacko about being Taken-Over.It won't be Good4CBH if it has to pay more in Ca$h.
I'm wondering about this Low Interest Loan that the Jap Zinc Major Shareholder is organising.They got Interest Rates again in Japan now.No more Free Yen,right?
but that's all too High Finance for me to worry about.
Thirty Cents[30c]should be Rock Solid as a Support no matter what Happens[of course 'no matter what' doesn't cover EVERY contingency]but I think I'll join the Depth down near there for the moment and watch developments.
Happy Trading
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 212
Registered: 09-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 15, 2006 - 07:37 pm: |
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Hello Dug,
Thanks for your comments on trading - I appreciate your perspective and comments even if I mainly check them out on weekends. (PS Hope you dont think I am ramping here dug - that is not my intension or approach)
FWIW I have not topped up on CBH yet ~ too busy on other fronts and so dont have funds to top up.
I note your downtrend lines and agree they have some validity ~ but suggest that the downtrend on the Daily chart below is more conventional and just as valid.
Worse feature of past week is those rising reds.
I agree the daily rising reds are apparently unattractive but the uptrend still looks intact ~ probably no cause for alarm. I guess this phenomena is a bit wierd but fits into CBH's recent performance. I think friday's market performance was a shocker - but CBH's friday candle is still a toy hammer above the ST trend.
DAILY:
I suggest that the weekly chart (further below) looks more positive than recent weeks ~ maybe once the SP gets through the 13 week MA it can keep this trend going.
WEEKLY:
Imagine the Traiko take-over target shareholders.
I note CBH is topping up slowly in Traiko and probably will need to increase offer price to be successful in takeover ( I think they are still <40%) ~ but they seem to have funds available (even if not a 0% interest). Bit of a volitile time ahead even if the market behaves itself.
Thirty Cents[30c]should be Rock Solid as a Support Yes that looks true and that might suit me if it does bounce back down ~ but I have a feeling that 33c will be as low as CBH SP will go.
That is my current thinking
Happy trading :-)
(Message edited by tryhay on July 15, 2006)
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1280
Registered: 07-2005
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