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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2515
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 10:18 am: |  
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... thought I owe Perler and answer - I am with you! It's much easier to be a bear than a bull in the current market condition. I think I will stick to my initial assessment - the index will revisit 4726 for a retest, but I doubt if it will make a lower low.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 847
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 10:54 am: |
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Good morning HC. I was just about to ask whether you thought the lack of posts was an indication to buy or sell, but now I know 
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http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2516
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 11:14 am: |
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Perler,
... phew! Lucky I said it first! A promise is a promise!
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2517
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 11:38 am: |
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... I want to "boost" the number of post in this forum, so I am going to put in "filler" such as this
Thought this private message has a bit of relevance in the current state of the market...
...I think it's a good thing to remind ourselves that FA is only good at the beginning of the bull run, ie, at the bottom of the market; at the top, I think it is a short cut to disaster. At the top of the market, it's the sentiment that is driving the market, not fundamentals. I think this should be clear to most of us.
I know there will be dissent from the masses especially the FA purists. But hey this just my view, so, they'll have to learn to live with it. Incidentally, I have noticed that most of the market watchers/commentators, investment newsletters, etc and blah blah blah are of the FA camp.
That, I think warrant those who look up to these people as "seers" and for direction to consider some "what if..."
1) what if they are wrong? If you punt all your monies with a single "market belief", when you put all your eggs in one basket, and when you are on the Titanic,... things can be really bad if the Captain were to miss seeing the iceberg...
History has provided many many examples that you/I/we can draw on - the FA purists are the last group of people to spot the market reversal!
Can't blame them because most company numbers are good if not great, adding on with the bright future/prospect of greater and better demand and projection; really if you are a number man, you shouldn't have second doubt! Or you are not a number man!
Can see the logic or not?
... so, if you were to consider yourself a number man wannabe, can you please take a second look and have a second thought?
Can you play safe? Can you put only half your eggs in the basket? Can you avoid getting on the Titanic and ride a hotair balloon instead?
Can you?
2) ... and if you can spare a second thought, how about spending sometimes on TA instead? How about buying some of these voodoo archiebargie (is that how it's spelt?) or hullabaloo that may be there's something in TA that may be of some use to you in saving your skin?
I mean your eggs? (not nuts!)
Can you see the market goes up and then down and then up and then down on a daily basis? If you can... can you see what's causing that up-down-up-down yoyo effect?
It's called sentiment by the TA folks. Yes man, it's the sentiment that is driving the market like a yoyo... why?
If you want to know why, then you should spend sometimes searching this site and find out more.
But just remember, don't put all your eggs in one basket... because things can go wrong, the clock may strike 13 times at night, the cat may go "woof" and the dog go "meowing" near your bedroom door...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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mads
Member
Username: mads
Post Number: 20
Registered: 12-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 12:43 pm: |
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HC
I agree that the market is driven by sentiment. Worse still, we seem to follow what happens overseas and more specifically the US market. If the USA sneezes we ......
On a regular basis FA and TA are thrown out the window when the DOW goes down or up. It just shows how small our market is - I guess.
Mads
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2519
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 01:46 pm: |
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Mads,
The local market follows the US markets closely is because of FEAR - the investors are losing confidence in the market. When the sentiment is strong, the local punters tend to ignore what is happening overseas. This is probably a sign of the market?
~~~~~~~~~~~~
General Rant from a cow...
It is quite clear to many that there is a "divergence" between fundamentals and stock price. Whilst many analysts are advising hold and are providing good supporting arguments, it doesn't wash with the investing public because they can see the "red" and their investment going down in flames...
They can take one hit or two hits, but the 3rd hit? It will add up. Sooner or later doubt will arise. Question will be asked.
For example, some FA proponents are saying the future global market is looking good to very good and hence this should be a good foundation for the share market. The others are saying the investment return is looking good this current year (because of last year's block buster)... sure, but going forward, they are saying not so good but still there should be some meat... well, these people are looking year(s) ahead and are telling you what they think at the same time asking you to put your money down...
I just hope they are right, else, well, then let's fall back on long term... afterall they can always "average" things up, and they have 3 good years to average 3 bad years ahead. They can't lose!
The losers are people who have made 3 years's gain and then losing it all back! Why? Why must they lose their gain to go long term? Sure there's always this argument that "no ones knows when the market tops..."
I don't know so I argue for the case that the investors to play it safe and take part, if not all their money out. They don't know either, but they are asking you to keep all your money in so you can enjoy further gain!
That's too much to ask in my opinion! The risk going 3 years forward is way way higher than the risk in the last 3 years!
Why can't investors take their capital and last 3 years' gain and exit the market? Wait one year and/or wait for the "fog (of war)" to clear, then re-invest again? That way they get to keep what they have gained instead of "wasting" it on the averaging game! It's only good for the fund managers!
Sorry for this rant... this is what bear do when they have nothing to do and is waiting for more "clue".
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2522
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 05:47 pm: |
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XAO intraday 06Jul25
XAO intraday 06Jul27
1) take a look at the two intraday charts on XAO, which one do you think is more bullish, more "sensible" and more "sustainable"?
2) which one gives you better "hope" that the next day is gonna be good?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2523
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 06:27 pm: |
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XAO Daily
1) "they" are gonna push it for month end futures/option play... the volume is picking up noticeably
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 217
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 06:45 pm: |
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Your XAO view HC is very micro (however your most recent post shows a relevant resistance line) and you have already got the point I had (in your most recent post)- but I will post it anyway: I am not confident of change in sentiment (MA and MACD still pointing in the wrong direction for me to get too excited about the market) ... even if the end of month futures/option play is a happening thing.
The bongo drums about interest rates and FED/s upping them will have our market around this level for a few weeks to come I'm sure.
Daily
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 218
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 06:48 pm: |
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Oppppppppps One more time FWIW
3 Month chart
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2524
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 27, 2006 - 07:20 pm: |
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Tryhay,
I am looking at short term with the above XAO charts. Long(er) term I am with Perler - I am holding a rather bearish outlook (as usual). Things will be clearer after August and then October since ASX tends to look to the US market for direction when things are looking bad. And the US market tends to show a lot of fluctuation during their year end tax season.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 221
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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