... THE question of Comdy Super Cycle

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holycow

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 12:23 pm:

... just noted that many people, ie, many people, including many "experts", economists, industry analysts, etc and blah blah blah are playing weasels currently. Gone are the chest beating claims of supercycle will live forever, if not with years to go, etc are currently "lying low" shying away from making themselves appearing stupid and ignorant and possibly ended up like HC having to kowtow to everyone apologising for their mistakes!

Yes, so far, I think they are "holding" back their claim. Some even go as far as "expecting" a "slow down" (does it equal to "end"?) in comdy because of China/India, and as usual many reasons why the super cycle could be dead, may not be dead but almost dead, etc...

Anyway, let's keep note of what they say and then we wait for October to arrive, and then let's see/read what they will say by then - I won't be surprise to read them AGAIN that the super cycle has miraculously revived and survived this current slow down and then it again has acquired many years of life, etc... and again the reasons are?

You guess it! China/Indian are showing growth of 8-10% and everyone living in those two countries would love to?

You guess it again - everyone would love to a) drive a car; b) own a fridge; c) own a teevee; d) own a wok or frypan; e) cycle to work; f) eat more veges, etc and blah blah blah!

Ok, enough of a rant. Let's just wait and read.

... yes, October.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/
has-the-resources-cycle-turned/2006/07/02/
1151778811335.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

peterloh

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 02:16 pm:

What are you trying to tell us that we do not know, that the month of October is a bad month for the share market?

In stating a known fact, you try to prove another party wrong, I cannot see the logic of your argument.You tell us you believe in fundamental, please let us know the percentage of consumption in term of resources and energy by China.If the GDP of China slow down by a couple of percentage points, has the demand from this source stopped all together?I will also not under estimate the future demand of India. I do not know the word "super" is appropriate here, but I do know the demand from these countries has a big impact on our mining companies and will continue for some time untill the supply side has catch up.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

holycow

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 08:07 pm:

Peter,

This rant is in reaction to what I have read in the news article... I just like to "shut" their mouth first in case when the time comes they coin the same "reasons" to justify their arguments. It's just like what you are saying to me now - that you have heard it all before...

If you find this going against your view, then, I guess the implicit points are may be we do not have total agreement in how the future will turn out. I will believe there's a super cycle when I see one. But until then, I am saying long term is not my cup of tea.

I am not arguing the demand for comdy will suddenly crash or collapse into nothing, you know I know that is total rubbish. Neither do I say the demand will drop drastically over a short period of time - no one will just shut down their shops and go fishing over night. However, over a longer period of time, if you are a comdy/biz cycle believer and you also believe in market forces aka supply and demand can create problem in competitive market, then, there's a great likelihood that the imbalance in supply and demand will cause problem.

A sign of supply/demand imbalance is the volatility of comdy/stock prices recently where real demand/supply is being "mixed up" with speculative demand/supply.

So what am I saying here? Nothing new as you have said really. It's just a rant. And I am not trying to prove anything. I am just pointing out my observation plus expressing my imagination that these people are lying low, etc. Neither do I say they are wrong - I am just saying I have heard them before, and if they are going to repeat them to appeal for agreement, I would prefer to hear something newer or better or more convincing.

If you have problem dealing with this rant and you do not agree with what I have said and if you are passionate about your view, I'd suggest you list out all your supportive arguments/reasons and possibly "facts" instead of asking me to provide you with.

For example, you have said demand cannot be under estimated, you have coined GDP, etc to support your view, I think you should provide some numbers there and I am sure you will sound more convincing.

Agree?

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

rederob

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 09:15 pm:

HC
There will come a time when demand IS met.
That's because output is increasing more than demand is slowing, at the moment.
So one would be a bit silly to keep thumping one's chest, wouldn't one?
But does that mean the "supercycle" is dead?
My answer would normally be no, although if output peaks when global markets melt down due to an anaemic US economy, the doubly whammy could translate into a "yes, possibly".
For now I am taking a much shorter term view than ever before, ie less than 12 months, because I suspect we might cop an oil price hike that will shiver the markets into a potential hibernation via inflation/stagflation.
That said, I reckon we would see a resumption within 5 years maximum, as the luxuries the "have nots" want are going to be more affordable later than they are now.
So the supercycle will have some mini-cycles IMHO, but it really will be a supercycle because that's where history has us at the moment.
Those wanting to adopt a "cautious" approach might be doing so because they can see how high commodities prices have risen, and that further dramatic increases are simply unsustainable.
The question they remain unsure of for now is how much longer the markets can stay "tight", and therefore how much longer before money SHOULD be taken off the table for a while.
I am equally unsure, short term.
Another 10 years time - yeah, I can see the bull thundering along, again.

msparks

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 09:17 pm:

HC
Why not just talk about stocks individually.
(only the ones to buy now, leave the strong sells for others to pick, OK

)

It doesn't really matter what is going to happen one day or waisting the energy to even think about it because whatever will happen, will happen.
While wasting effort discussing the future, opportunities slip by and are lost forever due to an overbearing VIEW of market direction.
You cannot see what is in front of your eyes.
Are you shorting the index ? If not,why not ? So why have a negative view of the future ?

I suggest a look thru the "world indices " on IC to see the current strength in all markets.

Sorry about the cheap shot about the "sells", just could not help it, where i come from we shoot " sitting duck's "

holycow

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 10:09 pm:

FRANKLY, as of this moment, today, now... I have no idea why people, you, and you and he and she still consider what I am saying is negative. Why?

MS, especially you. Not too long ago you kicked all of us on our head telling us about time frame... so let me tell you now I am looking at a relatively short time frame. If you want to know, I am saying from now to the next FOMC meeting, I am betting there will be another period where people will be shivering in their pants because of interest uncertainty.

When is the next FOMC meeting again? So I am talking from now till then. So, I don't think I am bearish at this moment because I have been buying. And selling.

Within a bigger cycle, there are many smaller cycles. I believe we are right now in one of those smaller cycles.

Cheers.

ps: regarding this rant, I am saying those people, in particular the "paid analysts" (Peter, I don't know what you do exactly, so plse take this to be not referring to you) who had been saying about super cycle (and not you either, R2R), and believing in long term fundamental supply/demand, if they really believe in what they have said, they shouldn't be so "weasel", they should stand up and be counted - WHEN THE MARKET IS DOWN and everyone feels like a rat in a sinking boat. It's no bloody good when the market turns and in hindsight they all come out and sing the same ra ra song... this is what my rant is aiming at.

Sure if tonight the US market gives us another 3% rise, I can bet I will be hearing them making their usual call. But that would be too "typical" as far as I am concerned. I want to see some REAL HEROES! Not some hindsight weasels!

So until the next 12% correction (again), I won't be giving them any respect. Or credit.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

rederob

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 11:15 pm:

HC
Isn't the US taking a few days off for Independence Day?
I will wait till Wednesday before thinking we could take a lead from the US markets.
Not wanting to be negative tho!

holycow

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Monday, July 03, 2006 - 11:24 pm:

yes, my mistake. Didn't check. Thanks. Good chance for local market to continue its move tomorrow.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

peterloh

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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 12:42 am:

rederob,

The States market will be opened tonight and it is likely our market will follow through.Meanwhile make hay while the sun shines. We will worry about winter when it comes. The commodity boom is here to stay for the time being, why not ride on it, instead of worrying about tomorrow.Our punt on KZL pays off.

rederob

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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 01:27 am:

Peter
DOW is up as we speak (post).
But US futures markets are not trading - at least I don't think they are (never having cared to much about what's happening after midnight!).
A curious thing about market psychology is that these national holidays have a rather excessively positive influence on bourses, just so long as things are not otherwise "bad".
Having said that, the FTSE was up despite Beckham's team getting the boot - maybe World Cup euphoria crosses the Channel regardless!

peterloh

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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 02:16 am:

rederob,

Good to know that the DOW is up. Barring exceptional circumstances I expect our market to have a very good month in July with gold and commodity leading the way.The superannuation money is burning a hole through the pocket of the fund managers.

HC,

Probably we are on the same wave length on what the bullish and bearish months are.You seemed to be concentrating more on the negative side of things, whilst everything seems to be rosy all around us at the moment.Are we going to trade with the current trend or are we going to trade against the current trend?You could be trading long but you sure come across as that you are shorting the index.

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holycow

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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 08:52 am: