ANN - honey, tonight is not the night...
| |
|
Last Poster |
Posts |
Pages |
Last Post |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Author |
Message |
     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2356
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, July 05, 2006 - 09:35 am: |  
|
ANN Daily
... in another thread I was making a comment (guessing) on ANN was being sold down by a fund(s) for window dressing. I was wrong. I think "they" might have known something that we didn't know then...
Is that a coincident? Or just plain lucky? Someone, some sellers took about one month, not one day, not some kind of impulsive selling fear driven action, but consistent selling over a period of 20 over days to clear out their stocks.
Is this prescience? Or planned move?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
huey
Member
Username: huey
Post Number: 29
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, July 05, 2006 - 11:00 am: |
|
Hi HC
I held ANN from the old Pacific Dunlop era and was left with a small holding after Pac had a buyback, I was peeved. To make matters worse they had a stock adjustment which meant I was then left with 102 shares, WOW, I was impressed with that! Cutting a long story short, the stock price hit way low then had the long slow journey back up. A reasonable return on my original buy was all I wanted. When the stock got to around mid $11 mark I saw a glimmer of hope, but the price became unstable so I bailed out. Me thinks there were many others in the same boat as I and got out when it appeared the price was not going any further i.e. the trend is your friend.
Cheers
Huey
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month
30 day FREE trial -
Download Here
|
|
|
|
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2359
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, July 05, 2006 - 11:53 am: |
|
Huey,
Hi! I know quite a few that are like you, hold ANN for quite a while. Not sure if they are still holding. If you read ANN's news today (here), you can't help but coming to this conclusion - the CEO sounded like he is winning all along and then boom! all of a sudden he's done in by a costly latex landmine. Do you think it's that simple like he said? It seems he has been cruising with his eyes shut.
And then his CFO chipped in and said something like the cost rise was with so much speed and "sheer" magnitude and blah - for a while I thought he was talking about his own erection!
Fact is, my gut feeling is these two "rubber" men are quite not up to it. Pretty impotent if you like. With managers like this I think ANN will be "limp" and under performed and non erecting for quite a while.
This one is not worth investing until these two "limpies" get helped with some kind of viagara pills or they replace them with younger stronger studs that can really ride it all the way!
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2360
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, July 05, 2006 - 02:31 pm: |
|
Oopsy! Now it is getting more "serious" - they came out with further clarification and the market reacted with further action - the stock promptly loses another 66c or 7.2%.
Hmmmm.... now "they" can all forget about this whole week! It will be honey... no! I am going to have headache this whole week! Yes, it's from Monday to Sunday... doh!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2365
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, July 06, 2006 - 08:34 am: |
|
ANN Daily
1) Bad things come in 3... let's see if today is another down day for this deflated stock.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2374
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, July 06, 2006 - 07:14 pm: |
|
ANN Daily
1) bad news comes in three alright. If you have the guts and bought some at its low today you have a great chance of making some tomorrow. Look like it will do a dead cat bounce.
2) gives it two days if it doesn't bounce tomorrow. It all depends on the overnight US market nowadays.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2375
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, July 06, 2006 - 07:16 pm: |
|
... let's keep this report for future reference so we know we have two fairly incompetent managers running the show here.
http://au.biz.yahoo.com//060706/27/sge1.html
Thursday July 6, 10:13 AM
Ansell's $200 Million Blunder
Shareholders in Ansell, the condom and glove maker might be excused for wondering 'what happened' after the events of the past two days.
The company's shares finished at new 52 week low of $8.55 at the close yesterday, shedding $1.24 or more than 12 per cent of their value over the past two days.
And all that happened was that the company provided 'guidance' on 2006-07 earnings to the market, as all companies do these days.
Except in Ansell's case it badly misfired: or to put it another way, the company and the management botched the update.
In these days of carefully worded statements and spin doctors, who ever heard of a company 'clarifying' a market guidance statement?
Well you have now: Ansell. The upshot is that instead of earning between 54c and 57c a share, the company will earn less than 50c a share in 2007: a big difference.
We haven't even seen the audited 2006 figures (which may or may not be on track) and the company is trying to 'guide' estimates for the 2007 year. That's a bit rich, and the management and the board deserve a right thumping from shareholders at the next AGM.
Tuesday's misstatement saw the shares fall 58c; yesterday's clarification saw them drop another 62c. They fell to an intra day low of $8.44 yesterday. It's cost the shareholders around $200 million in lost value!
So why the clarification?
Well it seems it's not quite the fault of the company (so the company infers), but those pesky analysts who took the spin the wrong way and estimated 2007earnings at more than 50c a share. Oops.
"Prior to yesterday's announcement, Ansell was aware that analysts' consensus EPS estimates for 2006/07 were approximately 58 US cents," Ansell said in its statement yesterday.
"Having seen some updated analysts reports that were issued overnight, the company is now providing the following clarification.
"While Ansell is not in a position to provide definitive market guidance at this point, it can confirm that the net EPS impact of the anticipated higher latex price increases alone would be in the vicinity of six - seven US cents.
"In conjunction with the planned cost increases to support growth, this is likely to result in 2006/07 EPS below 50 US cents per share."
Ansell said it will provide detailed guidance to the market at its full year results in August.
This is Ansell's statement yesterday in full.
"Ansell Limited (ASX: ANN) yesterday reconfirmed the expectation that it would achieve FY'06 earnings per share (EPS) within the US54-57 cent guidance range, excluding the effect of the now exited SPT (South Pacific Tyres) investment. Ansell also commented that analyst consensus for FY'07 EPS was too high.
"Prior to yesterday's announcement, Ansell was aware that analysts' consensus EPS estimates for FY'07 were approximately US58 cents. Having seen some updated analysts' reports that were issued overnight, the Company is now providing the following clarification.
"While Ansell is not in a position to provide definitive market guidance at this point, it can confirm that the net EPS impact of the anticipated higher latex price increases alone would be in the vicinity of US6-7 cents. In conjunction with the planned cost increases to support growth, this is likely to result in FY'07 EPS below US50 cents per share.
"As stated yesterday, Ansell will provide detailed guidance to the market at the time of the release of the FY'06 full year results in August."
And here's Tuesday's statement:
"As Ansell Limited (ASX:ANN) has previously highlighted, during the fiscal year ended on 30 June, 2006, it has faced sharply higher input costs, for energy, oil based synthetic materials and, most notably, natural rubber latex - where prices have nearly doubled over the last two years.
"Notwithstanding these significantly higher input costs, management and the Board are pleased to confirm that Ansell expects to achieve current year (F'06) pre-South Pacific Tyres (ASX: SPT.ax) earnings per share (EPS), within the US0.54�-US0.57� guidance range previously announced to the market. These amounts exclude a US$4.1 million write-down incurred during the year on the now exited SPT investment.
"Ansell Chief Executive Officer Doug Tough said "Record second half sales, good results from non-latex product lines, plant efficiencies, savings in overheads and lower interest and tax expenses are expected to enable Ansell to achieve F'06 EPS guidance despite a year on year approximately US$14 million net EBIT impact from higher latex costs. It is worth noting that within our portfolio Occupational, which accounts for about 50% of Ansell's total sales, is essentially a non-latex business.
"Even within our Professional and Consumer product lines, latex primarily impacts examination and household gloves, while its effect on surgical gloves and condoms is much less significant".
"Ansell also expects to end F'06 with a strong balance sheet and low gearing notwithstanding substantial share buybacks and higher dividends payments.
"Looking forward, the Board considers that the current analysts' consensus for F'07 EPS is too high. We think the market has yet to fully factor in the impact of higher latex, or the constraints upon our ability to pass these higher costs on to customers" said Doug Tough.
"Based on Ansell's current expectations, the net adverse impact of higher latex costs on EBIT in F'07 (after selling price increases and manufacturing initiatives) is likely to be approximately US$10 million.
"In addition, the Board has authorised an increase in other expenses to support growth initiatives, especially as they relate to new product development, growing market share in current countries and establishing a strong presence in new channels and emerging markets. Ansell also plans to further invest in Jissbon, its newly acquired branded condom business in China."
Confused? Well I am and so are a few brokers and analysts and fund managers today. More than 1.7 million shares were traded Tuesday and this rose to more than 2.2 million yesterday.
What the management was trying to do was soften up the market for 2007 ahead of the release of 2006 figures: having to get up and forecast a drop in earnings in the new financial year while the 2006 figures were still new, would have seen a similar reaction in the market to what we've seen over the last two days.
It's very likely that Ansell could follow Repco: its shares might weaken to the point where they become good buying simply because they are too cheap based on the company's (reduced) prospects.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
|
|
Incredible
Charts
now with US Data
- AMEX, NASDAQ and NYSE data
- OTC BB and Pink Sheet stocks
- more than 500 market and sector indices
|
|
|
Threads by Last Post Time: First
Previous
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
Next
Last
|
|
