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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2395
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 11:14 pm: |  
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... this is where I do my target practice on XJO stocks. If I got it right I will boast and brag here. If I got it wrong, I will try to ignore them... for those who are interested in XJO stocks, this may be a good source for cross reference. You never can tell sometimes two brains can work out to be better than one.
... and yes, please restrict to XJO stocks only if you want to share your stock/chart
WPL Daily
CTX Daily
ANZ Daily
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2405
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 12, 2006 - 11:34 pm: |
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... as a follow up, I have not changed my opinion on the above stocks yet. Not at this point... unless the market shows me more strength in the next two days.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2431
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - 07:40 pm: |
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ANZ Daily Weekly
1) the severity of ANZ's stock being sold down this time is quite alarming - blow up the daily chart and see for yourself - in 5 days the sp drops by about 8%. If your super fund has been buying - congratulation, your fund has just been utilized very wisely. So far your are looking at 8% loss and counting... but think this way, without your fund, the sp of ANZ could have fallen by more than 8%. See, it's not so bad afterall - your sacrifice has not been in vain, it's for the greater good of ANZ share holders and they will remember you.
2) short term, with trend line and long term MA breaking down, I think if you still want to long ANZ, you have to at least wait for the sp to climb back up the LT ma first. Make sure it can stay up above the line for a few days to make sure the big sellers are gone.
3) Daily RSI is very oversold, but in a down trend, sometimes this can go on for a while, so, as usual you want to watch pt 2 and you want to watch RSI to turn back up the 50 line.
4) take a look at the weekly chart, although the daily RSI is very over sold, the weekly one is not there yet. What does it mean? It can mean two things - it may continue its merry way down as a result of poor market sentiment and the continual loss of price momentum, or it may make a reversal at this point if the selling were to recede. So watch it closely before you decide to enter this stock.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2432
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - 08:20 pm: |
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CTX Daily
1) one step at a time, let's see if 23.00 will hold.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2433
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 18, 2006 - 08:31 pm: |
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WPL Daily
1) thanks to the "war", oil is being held up by the speculators... but as long as the SP of WPL is not breaking upward towards the 50.00, it runs the risk of being sold down due to the poor market sentiment. So here's what I am anticipating... a) if the war were to escalate with bigger gun and more deaths, then it will hang on here as a derivative play of oil price; b) if Israel were to opt for a slowing down and is looking at truce/peace, then, I think WPL is gonna "get it". Let's watch.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2440
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 19, 2006 - 06:35 pm: |
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WBC Weekly
1) I like WBC because it has been pretty profitable for me trading its warrants. But now it has reached a watershed, and if you are bullish on this stock (or if you are bullish on the banks in fact), you have to be careful from now on.
A big question one should ask is this: under the current economic climate, what would possibly cause the banks to fail and end with a further 8-10% drop in price? For WBC, I am looking at a potential drop to 18.00. Is this possible? If it is, I'd like to know what is the cause.
Anyway I'd put this unncessary fear to the back of my mind and just do a check up on WBC's weekly chart... what do we see here?
a) the only time the current pattern were seen was back in 2003/04 where the correction has practically taken the sp all the way back to where it starts (referring to ellipses 1,2 and circle 3). Now there's no reason why this time the sp won't behave like before to move higher to blue sky. But realistically, I doubt if it will because in many ways the Aussie econ has peaked, and just this morning I was reading there's a drop in comdy export. Without higher growth in the economy, I can't see how the bank sp can move higher like before.
How? What's the drivers? Unless some one can point that out convincingly, I think I am going to hold on to my negative view... continue doing this shit just like GWB.
2) ok, so far we have two trend line breaks and a break in the long term MA. The previous low has now become a short term resistance to the current sp. The weekly RSI is re-testing its oversold low, which is good because we shall know if the bulls this time have what it takes to break back up.
3) at this point, the conclusion is really just one word: WAIT. Let's watch the sp if it has substance to either halt its decline or rebound from here. This is a weekly chart, so, we are talking about weeks here just in case you are as impatient as moi.
WBC 2-day
4) the 2-day chart is more "revealing" in that it shows the long term MA has been pretty good, providing good support in two earlier cases. This time, with the SP sitting right on it, I would take it to be the litmus test - if it fails, no good, run for the door; if it holds, WBC is probably cookin'...
Anyway and regardless, this stock should be treated with "wait". But if you can't wait and you want to buy... tell you the truth - I am tempted too.
...but I will stick to my gun this time - I will wait!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2442
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 19, 2006 - 09:55 pm: |
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WPL Daily
1) whilst I was waiting for WPL to break its support at 46.50 (there was an intraday attempt today), I'd decided to step back and take a longer term look at this stock... and guess what I'd found?
I can't see a "good reason" for this stock to go up! No! In fact I see many reasons why it should/will go down at this price... don't ask me what are these reasons because they are just my opinions which as usual are bias. I'd rather keep them to myself so I don't have to suffer any humiliation should they turn out wrong. Ok? 
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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nat
Member
Username: nat
Post Number: 21
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 19, 2006 - 10:18 pm: |
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thanx for your insights hc,i im enjoying your posts and making one think ,Nathan
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taverner
Member
Username: taverner
Post Number: 4
Registered: 04-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 20, 2006 - 12:21 am: |
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HC,
Thanks for your input and for some very clear TA - it made great reading. I'm currently short on WBC - may close this position today. Hope you can be persuaded to reveal your final thoughts on WPL - why you think it will go down - I think its heading for 42.0
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2443
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 20, 2006 - 09:17 am: |
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Nat,
Thanks. It's good to know all these typing and charting are not going to waste...
Taverner,
Shorting WBC at the moment carries quite some risk. There's a good chance that everything will bounce today because of the US market's strong performance last night. I might even go as far as saying that there's a good chance to see XAO making a minor bottom and reversing itself from here - but we shall revisit this at EOD today.
On WPL, this stock is looking tired. At best it will go sideway and hang in there. I doubt if it will break 50 and go blue sky (if oil really breaks US100.00, it's a different story). FA wise this stock looks good long term, but lacking short term support factors; in a bearish market this can create downward pressure. Overall I think its financial side needs a rejig and some good news/result; or, the alternative is its SP gets a haircut to fit its current state.
If you are considering shorting this one, I think you should review the risk associated with it closely. Oil/WPL is the leader in both sector/market. Oil is the only story left for the speculators/investors to believe in. (Gold is taking a breather). I'd be honest - I had considered shorting this one but I don't think I have enough guts to take on the risk. Going down to 42.50 is a short term view but "they" can just turn it over night by pouring money into this sector especially with the "war" raging on.
On top of that I have managed to give myself another good reason not to short - don't take on the market leader, go take on the 2nd/3rd liners if you want to short... but these are all just excuses I have given myself. For those who are good and full of guts, they will just do it anyway!
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2445
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 20, 2006 - 09:30 am: |
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... I meant news like this will knock its SP pretty hard accumulatively...
Woodside falling short of profit targets
20-07-2006
From: AAP
WOODSIDE Petroleum is falling short of its profit targets after failing to capitalise on the biggest oil boom in history.
The company has suffered a string of production and exploration problems, and has ordered heavy cost cuts to ensure it can maximise returns from record high oil prices.
Some Woodside employees have been told the company was aiming for a record 2006 profit, with the challenge of topping $1 billion in the second half alone.
But internal projections say earnings are running at hundreds of millions of dollars behind this level...
http://finance.news.com.au/story/
print/0,10119,19849979,00.html
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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