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     msparks
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Username: msparks
Post Number: 571
Registered: 10-2004
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 07:43 am: |  
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CSR - Ethanol leader in Oz ?
- "Possible" sugar cane research to double sugar content of crop.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 572
Registered: 10-2004
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 08:09 am: |
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This is just an exercise in common sense?
What do you reckon, does it make sense ?
These are just a few , there are plenty of others that fit the pattern like the sgm and pcg chart.
Hills is just a boring old div stock, that keeps going up in a roundabout way.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 573
Registered: 10-2004
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 11:35 am: |
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No Comments ?
Not even Duggie ?
You can do all the analysis and use all the indicators but in the end, for a LONG TERM BUY and HOPE STRATEGY, you would not work out a better entry price than between the trend lines shown on the chart for Boral or below the trend lines would be even better,right ?
And is this one an expensive stock or a cheap stock for the LONG TERM ?
Where do you think the price will be in a year or two ?
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2464
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 12:23 pm: |
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MS,
1) I think it's worth a thought to emphasise the word "significance" in all you charts, being long term look back and attempting to look forward.
Are the "spikes" or "breakouts" significant enough to warrant a consideration that they are not the run of the mill trend channel break out?
Of all your charts, I probably do not want to consider CSR, PCG, BLD and CEY to be "normal" spikes. I would consider the "factors" behind their breaking away from the norm to be of FA significance... even with their subsequent settling back into the trend channel, these fundamental factors (beliefs) will most likely come into play next time when a similar economic/market condition arises.
2) take CSR for eg - sugar and ethanol speculation and riding on general commodity theme - it broke away and now still sitting on top of the channel... question: do you reckon it will fall back into the channel? Probably not, because commodity (energy alternative and sugar) play is not over yet for this one. (read Brazil's ethanol story and the potential of sugar shortage in 2008).
If I am going to make a bet is CSR will stay above the channel and move away to a higher plane (could be a new higher trend channel).
3) HIL - sitting in a matured and saturated market - it's growth is probably reflecting a combination of static demand+ inflation adjustments, etc... hence you see it "behaves" very well. If the same management continues what they have been doing in the past, you can probably see the same trend continues.
4) CEY - coal play at first then ruined by its mines problem and generally poor management/industrial knowledge if what I read elsewhere is true. Can you see the spike up/down the channel tends to be "unusual" which is mostly fundamentals related?
5) I am not saying my "theories" are "facts"... this is just how I prefer to read these charts - they make sense to me.
6) for the other charts, try digging what's behind the companies and see if they make sense to you from a FA perspective... they shall be your homework for this week end! 
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2468
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 01:21 pm: |
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SAI weekly
1) my contribution to your channel talk...
2) not all long term trades started off from a short term trade at the beginning... I would only agree to 50% of them... here's an example: SAI was bought base on a weekly channel, hence the decision to bail/exit will be based on a weekly chart - and by default, trade base on a weekly chart in my context is a long(er) term trade.
3) the stock is moving sideway currently with fairly large daily fluctuation relatively. But on a weekly basis, it is quite well behaved. The lower channel is providing good support. Likewise the long term MA is giving good comfort to the long term investors.
4) here's the question facing the trader - what's the probability this stock will continue in its trend? The weekly trend seems very strong both time in withstanding the fairly large market correction before, I guess it will continue unless the market suffers a bear crash which at that point I believe the weekly sp will fall through the lower channel.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 574
Registered: 10-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 05:46 pm: |
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Another one caught up in the bull market coming back to the reality of a normal long term channel ?
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 575
Registered: 10-2004
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 05:51 pm: |
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What is a RIO worth, really ?
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2470
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 07:31 pm: |
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MS,
another word I am going to repeat is "perspective" - what'd you reckon the perspective and significance between the channel and the "spikes" in both RIO and RIN?
Comparing the "little hill" (breakout) you see in RIN and RIO against the tinee weenee channel, I think you can disregard both channel and concentrate in the hill.
I'd assume both these stocks have moved on to a different business phase as well as into a different market phase. For RIO, it is quite obvious - its biz operation/profit/growth have outgrown its past pattern with large amount of foreign funds pouring their monies into RIO resulting in such a big move. Sure we cannot rule out the speculative element (like hedgefunds) in these foreign funds but nevertheless I am assuming there are many genuine funds getting into RIO as a long term investment. So, I will say it here that RIO will NEVER move back into the channel EVEN if there were to be a bear market.
As for RIN(ker), I think its game over. The speculation is over. Most speculative funds had pulled out, hence you see it is falling back into the old channel.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1296
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 22, 2006 - 07:39 pm: |
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Sparksie,chum,cobber,
Haven't got the time right now to chat but aren't you just regurgitating that Great One Spider's 'rubber-band' effect as per Spiders Web #4 whatever ad nauseum?
As a comment to go on with[til I get back]you should compare the ROAR of the Market to your picks.A glimpse of CSR,Hills and some of the others[BORAL??!!?]well,a comparison to the Index MAY show under-performance even when "They" went all "emotional".
You're a run with the Pack kinda fella,MS so ponder our Beloved Capo's dictum-
When d'Road forks?We take the LEFT!!
ie it's when a share takes off from the Norm/LT TREND that ya buy it!!
Not when it goes back to being PLOD plotted.
You're a worry,Sparksie.No wonder you're still in almonds on d'advice of some RAG!!
catchYa later,
jr
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 1298
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 23, 2006 - 12:48 pm: |
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Here you go,Msparks.Let's discuss one of your Holdings.You still have SHV,right?
What is there in the Charts?
First one Log Scale shows the Trend Break and second Normal shows your channel return possibility with a chance of a further $2 drop.
Looks to me like a Weinstein Stage 3 going on a 4 beginning.Whatyareckon?
What's the FA on it?Well,I don't know specifically to SHV other than a bit of general knowledge.
a]Almonds are increasingly in the Market due to that Gluten Intolerance palaver.Almond meal as an alternative to wheat.Would that already be built in to the SP?
b]SHV has got tied up with that TimberCorp mob and has moved into the "Tax Effective Investor" rort,sorry,scheme.This distorts Investment Criteria,MM.They start planting more than the Market can bear;prices come down over the Long Term and the Company don't care cos it's not them wearing the loss.You become a ShareHolder in a Scam,MM and the Management Mind-Set starts pulling money from You.ie Stage 4,understand?
c]well I don't have much else.TA wise there's one of Them,you know Double Tops forming again signalling about $11.
This is tightly held.While that was just ACE for causing Demand/Supply bottleneck thus upward price pressure,such tight however does work Supply[Sellers]/Demand[Buyers] in circumstances of Stage 4 ie Any Mass Move to Get OUT!!
and wouldn't you know it,MSparks but I just happen to have heard a really Wacky reason,WHY Almonds could get in trouble!!
Bees,MM.BeeKeepers are Aging.Young people don't want to go wandering around the country-side following tree blossom time AND there's some bee disease havocing hives.
Seems this disease ravages Queen Bees.California,d'USA in general has lost it's Bees.We[from OZ]we're exporting container loads of Bees to d'Yanks because,and this is d'relevant BIT,for one thing the Yank ALMOND crop will fail if there is no Bees!!
Now on the surface,US crop fail is GOOD for Oz'n'SHV.
BUT
d'disease is now doing the ravage on Our Bees 'n' we don't have anywhere to get containers full from and no bee-keepers to trundle them all over d'countryside NEITHER.
Do ya get it MM?and more importantly are ya gunner Keep it!! SHV that is?
Maybe you should raise your twins to be Bee Keepers!
Be Happy,MM.but don't call me Douggie again.
Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2476
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 23, 2006 - 06:55 pm: |
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In general, a break out from either higher/lower band in a long term channel to me is an event to be reckoned with and should not be ignored. Especially if the break out were to be on a prolonged basis, say lasting more than many weeks.
Most of the above examples are exhibiting such pattern - they are reflecting the bullish and exuberant market where people got carried away by all the excitement - this in itself is a warning or signal we should take note of because if you were to trace back the history of these stocks, breaking out of channel in such magnitude and in such prolonged time frame is out of the norm of the "usual bullish market".
This time, it's different because hey we are looking at a high number of ASX stocks not behaving like before! What has changed?
The only explanation I can come out with - this is indicative of a highly agitated and speculative market and this state of "excitement" has not happened before in the past. The question is - can this last? Our response to this question probably distinguishes us and groups us into the bull and bear camp because we are looking at multiyear weekly trend channel here, and by implication if you believe this pattern is sustainable and will continue, you are a bull.
If you don't, hey, you are joining moi!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 579
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 24, 2006 - 03:14 pm: |
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Nuts to you to Dug
Where is the beloved MND heading ?
One of the best shares as far as looking after shareholders?
Can it go up from here ?
How does it compare to RCR ? are they in the same business ?
Which one has the best prospects ?
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