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     holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2534
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Friday, July 28, 2006 - 10:38 am: |  
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QAN Daily
1) Pros:
a) probably has bottomed and is making a double bottom for a come back
b) dividend payout in August, previously on Aug25 with a 10c divy, yield tax adjusted is 4.9%, unadjusted yield is 6.6%; this may attract a lot of instos
c) management is taking very vigorous action to cut cost
c1) chart shows: positive divergence and fairly strong momentum. The double bottom is quite "distinctive" but it needs to clear 3.13 to complete its move.
2) Cons:
d) high fuel cost will reduce their profit margin (I think QAN has hedged their fuel, but not sure what's the %age)
e) low fare competition is all over the place
f) facing political pressure to open direct US route
g) labour/union "unrest" because of outsourcing of work
h) heaps more other problem... do a search on google
3) the proposition: do you dare? You do it for divy and for capital gain. The risk - you may lose your pants on QAN, next strong support is 2.50...
Your call!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2630
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Thursday, August 17, 2006 - 12:30 pm: |
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QAN Daily
... Yo! Take a lookie...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2634
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Thursday, August 17, 2006 - 07:08 pm: |
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... if you have this stock, here's a bit of of "clever-dicking" using the now famous MS word I'd just learned...
1) today's volume = 42.8 mil shares = Aud137 mil, which is a lot of money and I don't think it is the work of the typical mum&pa investors pooling their money for their beloved airline and for their national pride. No, I think it's the work of some big fellas... they reckon QAN is worth a punt: a) for the divy, b) for the capital gain (because it's cheap, I heard they said... I mean I guess I heard they said...)
2) so I reckon holding on for a while may not be too bad an idea, eh? What'd you reckon? First the divy appetiser and then the main course in some sp run up?
The first target should be at around 3.40, let's watch and wait.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2645
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Friday, August 18, 2006 - 06:06 pm: |
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QAN Daily
1) ok, no more comment after this, getting boring
2) QAN's fin report is on 28/8, so, keep watching but expect some small profit taking to set in by early next week;
3) always try to see thing from others' angle... say if you had entered at 3.10 and you are telling yourself a 15c gain is nothing, but, if you were to look closer you would have found that many others probably had bought in much earlier than you at 2.93 or 3.00 and they are the ones that would be tempted to take profit... make sense?
4) let's say profit taking does set in, it becomes a good practice to check if the shares are "eagerly" bought up when it happens because you want to know if the big fellas are still collecting,right?
If they are... then you can rest easy and wait for the fin rep, and then your divy because these big fellas don't normally cash out that easily.
Use RSI to check against profit taking if you are keen.
5) end of story.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2650
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Saturday, August 19, 2006 - 11:36 am: |
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... here's a bit of "pondering" from a suspicious stock investor - can you see the QAN stock price shot up, bought in a big way with 100's millions before the news of analyst upgrade, etc is made public?
Do you ever question the timing of such news/upgrade/fund buying... do you?
Was there some kind of wink wink nudge nudge going on before an upgrade is announced? Is there a chance that by the time you, mr small investor get to read these kind of "good news" you are already 140 million dollars behind?
... and you have to fork out 15c per share more than the "lucky" big fellas who miraculously bought in just one day ahead of you?
Do you ever wonder?
... errhh, do you believe in tooth fairy, btw?
Qantas forecasts upgraded
August 18, 2006 01:28pm
ANALYSTS have upgraded their full year profit forecasts for Qantas Airways Ltd but still expect the airline to report an outcome lower than its own guidance...
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,20169949-462,00.html
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2680
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Wednesday, August 23, 2006 - 02:56 pm: |
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... a quick comment on QAN - it will be quite hard for QAN to climb higher from this point on. There will be substantial resistance between 3.57-3.71 (I know this is a wide margin, but at this point we will keep this as a caution, as we move higher (if, that is), we probably can narrow the resistance down a little. If you are thinking of long(er) term, there's no reason why 4.00 is not achievable now that quite some substantial amount of money has flown back into this company.
The divy(11c) ex-date is 31/8/06 the last time I check. You should check it out yourself to be safe.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2738
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 09:29 am: |
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...if you are still flying high in this stock, here's some info that might interest you...
...The market is also using Qantas to punt the oil price. Qantas did its sums for this year on an oil price of $US71 a barrel, and has 60 per cent of its needs hedged at that price. So when the oil price falls, as it has recently to below $US70, the market gets a little breathless thinking the airline's profit will rise as a result.
There is extra leverage for investors in a falling oil price. Macquarie Equities analyst Paul Huxford observes that 66 per cent of Qantas' fuel hedging is through options. That means if the oil price really tanks and looks like staying weak, Qantas can trade out of most of its $US71 hedges, giving it still cheaper fuel.
"They run a pretty good treasury operation so there's upside," Mr Huxford said. On the strength of the oil situation and its ability to cut costs, Mr Huxford also has upgraded the stock.
Argo Investments director Rob Patterson said Qantas was a heavily traded stock that traditionally swung between $3 and $4, and a falling oil price had encouraged investors.
Saxon Nicholls, of Herschell Asset Management, sees another angle. "The stock was arguably oversold when Singapore Airlines sold out," he said. Qantas shares ended 2¢ higher at $3.55.
Read more
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2739
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| | Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 09:32 am: |
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QAN 2-d
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2741
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 11:19 am: |
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QAN Daily+intraday
1) ... the aftermath of divy ex-ed...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2907
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Friday, March 23, 2007 - 03:22 pm: |
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A private equity group said its 11.1 billion dollar (8.9 billion US) takeover bid for Australian airline Qantas suffered a setback Friday when a key shareholder rejected the offer.
Airline Partners Australia (APA) needs at least 90 percent of shareholders to accept its offer of 5.45 dollars a share.
But Balance Equity Management, which holds a 4.0 percent stake in the airline, said it did not intend to accept the bid due to the strong conditions in the domestic share market, the consortium said...More
*** I like it... go ahead, kill the deal,... and make my day!
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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wadda
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Username: wadda
Post Number: 494
Registered: 10-2002
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| | Saturday, March 24, 2007 - 12:22 am: |
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HC...I've had Qantas on my short list for some time now, patiently waiting.
wadda
"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2911
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| | Saturday, March 24, 2007 - 10:01 am: |
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Wadda,
This one could be tough because of the "big money"'s involvement... they can practically turn the price upside down - hard to catch the trend.
Cheers.
ps: hope you're out of API, I think this one may be is due for a T/O relook.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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wadda
Member
Username: wadda
Post Number: 496
Registered: 10-2002
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| | Saturday, March 24, 2007 - 11:58 am: |
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