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     holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 2608
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Tuesday, August 15, 2006 - 12:58 am: |  
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OXR Daily/Weekly
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2614
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Tuesday, August 15, 2006 - 05:09 pm: |
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OXR Daily
1) this sacred cow used to be untouchable, but now... it seems nothing is sacred anymore. Don't people have any loyalty left these days? Do I sound like a broken record if I were to repeat my profit taking call on this one? 
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2621
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Wednesday, August 16, 2006 - 02:47 pm: |
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OXR Daily
1) Mads, with a bit of hindsight today, I have taken a closer look at OXR, check out the chart attached.
2) I won't look at OXR as H&S but rather as a triangle, so if you were to combine today's chart with that of yesterday's; we have potentially 3 possible price target IF/IFF there's further deterioration in support (can't really rule this possibility out because of the very bearish sentiment):
2.1) first price target at around 2.50 as shown by today's chart and the fibo level;
2.2) second target at around 2.00 if we use yesterday's chart and the fibo level;
2.3) third target at around 1.70 if we use the triangle breakdown target;
2.4) typically I will ignore the 2nd and the 3rd target before the 1st one is hit (I guess you can see this as let the "profit"/loss run )
3) If you have this stock, I guess you really have to keep an eye on it because from momentum's point of view this stock is looking vulnerable with weekly RSI dipping below 50, plus the very high vol of transaction back in May/June period - some big players had exited. The rebound was done with relatively weakish volume (below average) which doesn't really show a lot of conviction from my angle.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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mads
Member
Username: mads
Post Number: 32
Registered: 12-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 16, 2006 - 03:46 pm: |
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Hc,
Thanks again for the charts and the 3 IFS. Yes I sold September $2.50 PUT OPTION for which someone paid me 14.5 cents per share. In other words if the contract was put to me at expiry date (or earlier) I have to fork out $2.50 per share but the end cost in my books would be $2.355 plus fees. Hence, keeping a close eye on this stock.
Could you please clarify what it was that you saw in the chart that triggered the closer look at OXR. Was it, for instance, the higher volume and lower prices back in May and June that triggered the original thought?
Thanks in advance
Mads
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2622
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 16, 2006 - 05:42 pm: |
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Mads,
1) what started my comment in OXR is its weekly chart at the top - it looks top heavy, forming 2 peaks with the latter a lower top which generally alerts me to "trouble" moving forward with a "longish" time frame since a weekly chart.
2) the stock followed up with a break in the year long trend in the daily chart (although it has been already "broken" in the weekly chart) - this to me is another warning.
3) the trigger for a closer look was due to your request ... because you asked me in the RIO H&S thread, so I took a closer look just in case I'd provided you with a wrong/bad answer.
In the weekly chart, it's very obvious that the volume back in the May/June selling was very heavy if you were to compare with the previous two years - it begs this BIG question - if OXR is sooo good, why the heck "they" sold in such a big way?
And who bought it all up? Btw, whoever bought it all up didn't have enough buying power to push the sp back up higher as indicated by the second lower peak. Right?
... may be we can assume back in the May/June sales, a large number of the shares had been bought by the retailers and hence we are seeing a lesser concentration of shares exchanging hand after that. Right? We may even assume many of these retailers are fixated on the idea that OXR is a winner long(er) term and they are willing to hold. If you go around checking the various forums you can read "they", the retailers are saying and believing in it.
Whether OXR is a good resource stock into the future is not really that important at this juncture - rather, the buy/sell decision/consider at this point hinges on its "value" - value that based on perception on price (SP now comparing with sp 6 mth or 1 year ago) rather than fundamentals like what's in the ground and how much it worth and/or LME warehouse short of stocks, etc.
... at this point, everyone is fully loaded with this stock and their paper profit is high (no one is willing or has any cash left to buy at $3.00+). What is going to happen next?
- the stock price falls on its own weight!
At this point, the Mexican gun fight scenario is coming to my mind - everyone is staring at everyone, gun in hand, ready to shoot... and, whoever shoots first win!
Whoever sells first - WIN!
Let's watch... and let's just hope that no one gets wobbly legs moving forward because if/when it happens (like another sell down of commodity in the overseas market), I have a feeling it is going to pour, not just a trickle in this one.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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mads
Member
Username: mads
Post Number: 33
Registered: 12-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, August 16, 2006 - 06:14 pm: |
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Thanks HC. You have made a few valid points. OXR is 90% Copper and 10% Gold producer. So I guess it really depends on the price of Copper which is driven by world demand and supply. I will have to look into this further.
Thanks again
Mads
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2636
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Thursday, August 17, 2006 - 10:59 pm: |
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OXR DAily
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1872
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 18, 2006 - 08:42 am: |
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HC
I expect that you LT trend line will today see a massive failure.
OXR could retrace to mid$2.30s and fill a gap at that level.
Were that to happen, a buying spree would be my strategy.
I see no reason to buy this stock until $2.50 is breached on the downside.
Post-September OXR will deliver in spades.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2638
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Friday, August 18, 2006 - 09:27 am: |
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R2R,
Hmmm,.... hmmmm,.... (just imagine I am thinking really really loud )
Now I'd like to know why do you say the LT MA would fail? Is it because of the fall in crude last night? Or is there some specific OSH related issue?
If you were to look at the LCO SEP futures, it doesn't look that bad volume wise. I reckon the decline will stop at or near US70.00... last night they were just "reacting" to some temporary relief in the "war" and the "spill", but, the spill is still happening.
LCO SEP FUT
Last Update: 4:01 PM ET Aug 17, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell under $71 a barrel Thursday to close at a two-month low, supported by continued output from the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska despite major repairs and easing concerns over violence in the Middle East.
At the same time, natural-gas futures tallied a loss of more than 12% in six-straight losing sessions, closing at a three-week low Thursday after a U.S. report showed a bigger-than-expected rise in the fuel's inventories.
Crude for September delivery closed down $1.83 at $70.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest session-ending level since June 20. The contract took a knock on Wednesday as traders digested the weekly supply data and a reduced oil demand growth forecast from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries...
Full report here
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1873
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 18, 2006 - 12:13 pm: |
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Your holiness
Crude?
This is the Oxiana thread!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2642
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Friday, August 18, 2006 - 01:05 pm: |
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Ooopsy! Hmmm,... the magic mushroom this morning tasted really good... sorry, got mixed up with the OSH thread.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1874
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 18, 2006 - 08:09 pm: |
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Your holiness
With BHP closing Escondida (8.5% of worldwide copper is supplied from that single mine), I have changed my position on OXR to an outright BUY, and don't worry about the price until you want to sell in December to buy a yacht!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2652
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Saturday, August 19, 2006 - 01:15 pm: |
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R2R,
We will watch OXR next week. Personally I won't "jump" into this stock. The other side of the supply/demand issue needs to be considered here as well.
I thought the demand (read China) on copper is falling? At least in the short term. BHP's union problem is a short term issue, so, how much will this impact on the supply/demand balance?
cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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