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   hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius Post Number: 1974 Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 12, 2006 - 05:14 am: | 
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Good Morning Is OXR in mortal Stage 3, or simply consolidating before moving up? How do you tell the difference? Does the weekly chart tell us everything we need to know for a medium to long term buy or avoid decision? If the chart does not reveal the whole story what do people think of the earnings prospects and other fundamentals? Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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   hershy
Member
Username: hershy Post Number: 1756 Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 12, 2006 - 07:27 pm: | 
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A Point and Figure chart is probably the best instrument to see how the OX is faring.
The longest trend line, dating back to January 2002 with 4 contact points is still unbroken and remains defiant in the face of adversity. The next trend line, barely 15 months of age is also as yet unbroken while the one dating back to June, sporting several touches but one failure is also pointing upwards. And that's where the good news ends. The present short term trend is down and if the trend support should fail here $2.20 is a real possibility. On the other hand, there is a distance of approx. $1.30 between the two obvious consolidation zones on the chart and one could argue that should the copper and gold price pick up and boom again, a $1.30 move to the next zone is not unlikely.
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I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!! http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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   muzza
Member
Username: muzza Post Number: 288 Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 15, 2006 - 04:59 pm: | 
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Gentlemen, I see OXR as a stage 3 formation. However whether we see a continuation (stage 2 resumption) or a breakdown into a stage 4 I believe that its too early to make any definitive comment. First lets go back in time:
OXR consolidated in a stage 3 for sometime before it broke through the top of the channel into a strong stage 2 resumption. In that stage 3 it was a range trade - I believe that there is an old OXR thread somewhere in the long term section where we discussed this. And, trying to predict the direction, given the weight of the evidence at hand, balance of probabilities etc was too hard.....it was better to wait for the result, confirm with a pull back that respected support and then modify a range trade to a long position. Thats what I did that it worked very well on that occasion. Fast Forward to the present time:
I see a parallel here to the past - a range on offer until we know the direction (with confirmation). That having been said, there are two slightly different situations for me. First, the high at the start of this stage 3 is quite a bit greater than then other 2. In the earlier situation there was more symmetry. In other words more volatility to date. Second, when I flipped from a range to a long - a long long time ago (!!) - I have pyramided the position and am well in the money.......making the trigger finger very itchy. If the OX breaks south out of the channel (a strong range of support between 242 and 252) then I see the next logical support level at 215, and will be long gone by then best regards Muzza
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   rederob
Member
Username: rederob Post Number: 2130 Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 15, 2006 - 08:52 pm: | 
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muzza The charts are interesting. They continue to tell what buyers and sellers are doing during "ranging" periods. But do they show how quickly sentiment can turn when the company reports it actual profits? Or, have the analysts got OXR's earnings hanging on the right pegs? Funnymenials: OXR is not doing as well from gold as many have thought it would - shrinking margins due to higher costs a big factor. Originally the OX was just knocking out gold, and many investors fail to understand how unimportant it is today as a profit driver. However, if gold does its annual 20% price run soon, then sentiment can change quickly. Copper production is going to plan (and better) and cash costs are giving excellent profit margins. However, with copper coming off the boil over the past 7 months, and perhaps more downside to come, it is moot the extent that the OX will be marked down in 2007. Golden Grove is the new "wild card" for the OX. When purchased last year siver, lead and zinc prices were pretty ho hum. Presently we have a very different story and my estimates suggest the byproduct credits can get zinc prices down to near 25 cents/lb into 2007 if the slightly north-trending metals prices continue. I recall OXR recently suggesting they will rack up a profit of around $500m in calendar 2006. This figure may not change a lot for the financial year 2007 if the status quo remains. That's unlikely, but what is entirely possible over the next 6 months is that we get a "profit substitution effect", whereby any copper price weakness is compensated for at Golden Grove. In that event we then have the difference hinging on where gold heads. So right now I think $3 is a reasonably fair price for the OX, and would only contemplate a re-entry if the gold price went gangbusters again.
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 429 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 15, 2006 - 09:22 pm: | 
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Everything about OXR's chart suggests a continuation of the uptrend rather than rolling over IMO: the 200 D_MA, 69 DMA, and chart look is +ve - not to mention the various indicators of interest. Daily chart: Looks like a couple of triangles just itching to break out
Holding but not topping up as yet
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   muzza
Member
Username: muzza Post Number: 289 Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 16, 2006 - 07:28 am: | 
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Rob, Thanks for the input from the fundamentals perspective. In the Ox's case perhaps we are all agreed that the bears and bulls are pretty much of equal strength at the moment, and therefore the charts dont really give any predicative insight into the direction of the share price once earnings are reported. No abnormal volume etc - I havent checked lately, but there has been no significant shareholder trades etc. Many just view OXR as a "Gold Play" and ignore the other elements. Here is a chart of GOLD:
This company is offers an interest in physical Gold Bullion. The holder of a Gold Bullion Security will hold both a redeemable preference share of nominal value and a beneficial interest in approximately 1/10th of one fine troy ounce of physical gold. Other than the absolute number, the flattening out of price action is very similar to Ox - does this give us insight to the markets linkage of Ox to Gold? The panel at the top of the chart is a relative strength graph of the GOLD (security) to XJO with a 26 period MA. regards Muzza
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   rederob
Member
Username: rederob Post Number: 2136 Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 16, 2006 - 11:58 am: | 
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muzza Note the high (visual) correlation between OXR and gold. Expect the OX to cop a caning on monday given weakness in precious metals overnight.
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 434 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 21, 2006 - 08:33 am: | 
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hilarius you raised an interesting question more than one week ago about the prognosis for OXR, and there have been several responses. Your enquiry related to both TA & FA (If the chart does not reveal the whole story what do people think of the earnings prospects and other fundamentals?) I notice that corporatefile.com.au have recently released "Attention ASX Company Announcements Platform Lodgement of Open Briefing" at the following hyperlink which contains some FA details ~ copy of the tag attached below. http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/2006%20review%20&%202007%20outlook%2020.12.06.pdf corporatefile.com.au What is the main focus for Oxiana in 2007? MD Owen Hegarty Our focus will be to continue the strong operating performance and of course we’re always looking at ways to improve. 1. Prominent Hill - Potential products: Copper and gold concentrates , as the world’s next best copper-gold mine, is a significant project for Oxiana and we want to make sure it continues to go well from a capital expenditure and timing perspective. (impressive vanilla home grown project) 2. We will also be advancing our copper and gold expansions at Sepon and the incremental expansions at Golden Grove - Product: zinc concentrate, copper concentrate, gold/silver concentrate . It’s these growth projects that will drive value for our shareholders. (impressive specialty home grown project) 3. We also place a great deal of importance in maintaining our very good record in safety and environmental and community relations performance. (perhaps OXR is not just interested in slash and burn approach to mining?) Hegarty continues: It’s an exciting time for Oxiana and our various stakeholders as we look to continue to grow the company towards the ultimate objective of building the next major mining house. Moreover: "Rising commodity prices have helped boost our earnings and cash flow. We paid an interim dividend and the share price has risen, although we still don’t think it reflects the value that is within the Company in a range of areas. We’ve just got to keep on delivering and that should look after itself:. I guess the ultimate future of OXR depends on the direction of the price of gold and copper [however other hard commodities are entering OXR's portfolio as we speak], however it is hard to see OXR not becoming the vision of its MD: (next major mining house). Short term if/when the XAO turns down after the christmas rally then OXR share price may follow suit (but that is the opportunity to top up IMO). hilarius you must have an opinion that is worth sharing in this thread - however the question was well worth asking don't get me wrong. Your opinion could be FA or TA perspective ~ or a combination of both: what do you think is the future for the OX? FWIW Updated daily chart: RSI, Volume, and DMI starting to look +ve to me - perhaps ready for a swing higher? I have just noticed that the chart is a bit busy - if it helps draw your own
Am still holding but am likely to take some profit if/when some resistance levels (shown on the chart above) are achieved - then if it behaves and drops towards the 200DMA it will be well worth topping up for the rather rosie future IMO (Message edited by tryhay on December 21, 2006)
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 564 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 18, 2007 - 08:28 am: | 
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Captain consolidation may just be ending for the Ox ~ if the charts below are anything to go by. This thread suggests OXR has admirable fundamentals and if the recent price/volume action can follow through then I expect to top up soon... OXR Chart - Certainly looks to be testing the upper resistance right about now
......................... Weekly Chart: puts a finer point on it ~ has that familiar pattern
Cu Chart Yr:Breakout occurring.....Copper Overnight: something is pushing Copper price higher
............... anyone else following it?
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   cat_lady
Member
Username: cat_lady Post Number: 205 Registered: 10-2006
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 18, 2007 - 02:24 pm: | 
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tryhay on copper gains. quote from huntley's: London Metal Exchange copper jumped to a seven month high, bolstering the entire base metals complex, with further gains expected overnight. Fund and speculative buying pushed copper prices sharply higher with market activity heating up once prices broke through $7,900/ton. A fall in LME copper stocks by 2,575 tons initially supported prices. LME copper stocks have declined roughly 5% from the start of April. Moreover, stronger than expected US housing starts figures were also very supportive for construction-intensive copper, according to market participants. cat lady
Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 567 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 07:52 am: | 
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Hi cat_lady That is interesting that huntley's have discussed copper recently as well. Oxiana has interests in Gold, Silver, Copper & Zinc ~ with a considerable pipeline of projects, so it seems like a good pick all round. Topped up late last week on the basis of the chart ~ can not tell what the market is doing (apart from going gangbusters presently) so worth following its lead until sentiment changes. Weekly chart looks +ve IMO:
PS Seems to have a good approach to hedging of production (particularly to gold at Wiluna, etc). Wonder what the AGM will reveal to the market ~ bad news NOT I'm sure (Message edited by tryhay on April 22, 2007)
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   magneto
Member
Username: magneto Post Number: 157 Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 09:07 am: | 
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Tryhay, It looks like I hold/follow many of the same shares as you . IMHO, OXR continues to range and needs a clear break above 3.25+ I hold long.

Sincerely, Mag
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 568 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 23, 2007 - 07:52 am: | 
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Funny about that Magneto ~ must be the SDLC background. Perhaps you are right about Ox, but when it does breakout I think I'll top up again. I think I'll be using the MACD on a weekly and monthly basis from now on - if you know what I mean. Mark
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 581 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 02, 2007 - 04:42 pm: | 
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OXR looks to be straightening itself out & may just be stepping out from here ~ $3.40 st target? Weekly chart:

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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 586 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 04, 2007 - 08:29 am: | 
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OXR looks to have broken out of a daily flag and may be heading towards ~$3.50 as in interim target. OXR Daily chart: most indicators looking flash and kitco's spot prices are all in the green this~morning: http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/
am already overweight OXR but just might top up on BSG which exploded yesterday and is not far from blue sky BSG Daily chart

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   muzza
Member
Username: muzza Post Number: 295 Registered: 06-2003
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| | Friday, May 04, 2007 - 11:16 pm: | 
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Mark, May I ask what your timeframe is with OXR and also with respect to $3.50? I have been in OXR for some time and have built the position over time. To me OXR is building another base as it did sometime ago. But we are yet to know whether this time it will be another Stage1 continuation into a Stage2 or a Stage3 warning of a coming Stage4. Note that OXR has not really been making higher highs. TMF (not shown) has also been signaling distribution for sometime. Time will tell - Weekly Chart:
To my way of thinking only a break above $3.82 with some reasonable volume will signal a Stage 2 resumption. What has kept me in OXR are the solid fundamentals of the OX, not wanting to realise a CGT event, and the channel. OXR has been in a channel that I estimate to be about 48% wide from bottom to top (2.56 to 3.80). Therefore taking a bite out of half the channel width with CFDs can add yield to the position while one waits to see which way she eventually breaks. I hope that this view gives another perspective - happy trading best regards Muzza
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 587 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 05, 2007 - 08:15 am: | 
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Hello muzza, I can not tell you a time frame as uncertainty reigns supreme (as usual). Anthony Hughes (AFR Street Talk in his article 'Big miners in the sights of privateers') states "With local miners like Oxiana, which claims it can be a top 20 company in the next three years (others think it is takeover fodder for Xstrata, which is why it rose 3.75% on Friday) there is not shortage of acquirers in the mid tier". If no takeover offer appears shortly I am looking to take some (say 1/3) profit in week/s rather than longer time frame: and if OXR delights by bouncing higher than $3.50 then all the better. I say this particularly considering that S&PASX 200 closed at 6304.9 on Friday (gain this financial year of 24%): the All Ords Accumulation index has risen by 24% in each of the past 3 years (Nina Wan AFR "Clean out the dog stocks"). Seems to unreal to me to have OXR bounce out of your Fib range / or recent price action into blue sky before end of June, and this close to tax loss selling I'll be happy with some profit rather than hang on the never never. Lets see what actually happens......
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   stickman
Member
Username: stickman Post Number: 1077 Registered: 05-2004
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| | Saturday, May 05, 2007 - 10:01 am: | 
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HI all looks like a short to the lower trendline or a buy when it breaks the top trendline - a large sym triangle playing out atm just my view cheers

Trade to Learn, Not to Earn. when you lose,don't lose the lesson.
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   hershy
Member
Username: hershy Post Number: 1984 Registered: 10-2002
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| | Saturday, May 05, 2007 - 10:15 am: | 
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Buy on first gap; sell on third ?
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket." http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 589 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 06, 2007 - 10:56 am: | 
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Thanks for expressing your view stickman ~ I have no warrant on stock~watching, and so I suggest your view is just as valid as mine. Having said that my post #586 shows a definite gaped breakout from a daily flag structure which suggests more upside before consolidation occurs IMO. The weekly chart below suggests the share price action is testing the upper channel (presently resistance and perhaps one day soon to become support) and if the upward momentum is exhausted around $3.50 then the market will be telling me to take some profit (or at least consider a stop loss approach). Weekly chart:
As is the general practice on this site observers must DYOR
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 591 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 13, 2007 - 04:27 pm: | 
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The Ox retesting the breakout? daily:
Weekly:
Took some profit last week
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 620 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 07:43 pm: | 
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HH coming up

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   muzza
Member
Username: muzza Post Number: 300 Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 08:35 pm: | 
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Lets hope so Mark, OXR has broken through the top of a symmetric triangle on my charts - and made it to $3.50 as you suggested that it might do earlier on. We need to see it respect the triangles top line (becoming support) and then clear $3.76 for a new ATH - if it does then we might see a nice stage 2 resumption regards Muzza
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 626 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 16, 2007 - 08:38 am: | 
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A bit more OXR price and volume action will encourage another top up. Once $3.80 is achieved (perhaps not next week) it is blue sky from there Daily chart: recently looking more +ve after retesting the breakout and respecting the short term support

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   muzza
Member
Username: muzza Post Number: 303 Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 23, 2007 - 10:53 am: | 
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Good Morning, I was staring at the charts for OXR and noticed something that might be of interest. Actually what I was doing was re-reading Alexander Elders book - "Come into my Trading Room" - and was mucking around with my coding of his triple screen methodology. What I noticed on OXR was that it has seemed to (in the past), spend a long time building a base before it goes for a run. MONTHLY Chart:
The last time around by my count OXR spent a good 22 months before it went for a run. This time its been about 14 months before its poked its head above the downward sloping upper trendline of a triangle/wedge. I fully appreciate that with such timescales this might be labeled by some as "investing" rather than trading. Not being one for labels really I'll press on - the point being that if history is any guide (it may or may not be!) - then OXR might be in for a nice run if it breaks through 3.76 - 3.82 over the next few weeks. Weekly Chart:
If it does not break into clear air, it just might take its time to build its base again. Of course the potential reward is that if the Ox breaks then the move historically has been very rewarding. regards Muzza
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   rederob
Member
Username: rederob Post Number: 2254 Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 23, 2007 - 01:30 pm: | 
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Muzza The Ox has never been a "dividend" play. However, with its solid earnings and strong cash flow there is every chance this stock gets re-rated accordingly. In terms of the value of its metal "in ground" OXR is severely undervalued. Should the metals markets keep powering ahead, OXR's share price will do an FMG - well, maybe a small FMG!
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 645 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 30, 2007 - 02:46 pm: | 
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Is that 10X the current Share Price in less than two years Rederob? Ohhhhhh yes please... OXR has managed 3X SP increase in less than two years already and has been consolidating for the last 12 months (and FWIW it took ~eight years to make 10X SP increase). From a long term perspective I think OXR is ready to bounce out of the blocks: selected indicators are performing a +ve cross, Volume & Price up, and short term resistance looks to be melting away, and the fundamentals (price sensitive company announcements) are +ve (currently on North American road trip) ~ must be good... Monthly Chart:
Looking to top up again some time soon (Message edited by tryhay on June 30, 2007)
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   hershy
Member
Username: hershy Post Number: 2017 Registered: 10-2002
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| | Saturday, June 30, 2007 - 06:10 pm: | 
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Hello Tryhay The mighty Ox may well have consolidated during the last 12 months but the last 3 month saw it in a pretty good party mood having jived from a low of $2.60 in the week of 9th of March to a high of $3.71 on Thursday. 42.7% in 17 weeks for a consolidating stock is not a bad effort. I wish all my other holdings would consolidate, I say, would consolidate in a similar fashion !

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket." http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 648 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 30, 2007 - 09:51 pm: | 
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Hello hershy, Anyone who bought into OXR at $2.60 was either mad or a time traveler (day trader). I'm just happy to pick up the momentum trade: I will not be surprised if OXR is >$7.00 by the end of this year (DYOR though). Many other stocks (I'd say the ones you are referring to hershy) have displayed tax loss selling so their charts are more -ve. Daily chart: Daily MACD, DMI, increasing volume & price action suggest OXR is approaching impulsive move.
Top top up time IMO ....
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   trader888
Member
Username: trader888 Post Number: 16 Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 01, 2007 - 11:56 pm: | 
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OXR looking interesting , weekly indicators looking good See if it has enough power to breakthrough its resistence and power on pass its ATH - 3.82
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   tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay Post Number: 727 Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 09, 2007 - 09:11 am: | 
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OXR looks to need a bit more consolidation music and if it behaves (respects the resistance/support) I expect price action when the indicators sort themselves out. The Fibs seem to be playing up (on the charts) so the price target is not clear at the moment ~ but I guess >$5.00 say by the end of year. Weekly chart:
Not quite top up time IMO ....
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   sway
Member
Username: sway Post Number: 362 Registered: 12-2005
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| | Tuesday, July 01, 2008 - 04:15 pm: | 
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This thread has been quiet for a while. Looking back a couple of years, it seems that OXR has been at a similar stage to where it currently is:
This time we have the complication of the ZFX merger. Are we seeing the start of another run up or is there a fall about to happen? Any thoughts? PS I hold ZFX and OXR Cheers Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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   muzza
Member
Username: muzza Post Number: 309 Registered: 06-2003
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| | Tuesday, July 01, 2008 - 08:34 pm: | 
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Hi sway, I hold - the analysis that I did early on in this thread still holds "technically" from my perspective. But the overall market sentiment is very different. Volatility is everywhere. My predictive powers are, as always, very limited - and in these trying times one also has to deal with the fog of fear. I recommend that we dont try to predict at this stage - I'm trying to focus on managing the position. Especially important in this climate is the safe preservation of capital. May the gods smile on the OXR ZFX marriage - but my mantra is manage the trade and keep the stops where you are comfortable - and I am saying this to myself about all my positions regards Muzza
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   sway
Member
Username: sway Post Number: 365 Registered: 12-2005
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| | Tuesday, July 01, 2008 - 08:44 pm: | 
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Muzza I suppose you still stand by your comment about a taking a long time to build up before a move. That was a year ago and we are still within the same channel $2.55-$3.85. Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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   muzza
Member
Username: muzza Post Number: 310 Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 06:41 pm: | 
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Sway Correct - in the post earlier in this thread (Saturday, June 23, 2007) there is a chart that showed OXR basing for 22 months before it broke into a new stage 2 with a very strong move.
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   ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz Post Number: 763 Registered: 10-2005
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 08:18 pm: | 
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22 months is nothing. WMT_US had a eight year base pattern which ended in September 2007.
--- ohk Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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   bvbfan
Member
Username: bvbfan Post Number: 1 Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 07, 2008 - 12:10 am: | 
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Not sure where to post this here or if I should even bother. I've not been here in ages but thought I'd mention it to anyone that may not be aware of the shareholder action to call and EGM. The board of OZ Minerals are incompetent, the failed to act in the interests of shareholders for too long now. I have previously told the company in July they should have hedged copper while it was trading around $3.30/lb as they failed to hedge zinc at $2/lb. They have screwed up time and time again while pocketing their $3000+ a week salaries. Time to hold them accountable and sack most of them. If you are interested in joining this action or want more info please email me bvb.fan.shares@gmail.com Currently I have 60+ supporters and need to find another 40 before we can take it to the company. Please let any shareholders you know who might be interested of my details also.
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   redrover
Member
Username: redrover Post Number: 811 Registered: 04-2005
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| | Saturday, December 13, 2008 - 02:47 pm: | 
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There is to be a class action against OZL funded by IMF. Full details here - http://www.imf.com.au
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