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     hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1974
Registered: 04-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 12, 2006 - 05:14 am: |  
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Good Morning
Is OXR in mortal Stage 3, or simply consolidating before moving up?
How do you tell the difference?
Does the weekly chart tell us everything we need to know for a medium to long term buy or avoid decision?
If the chart does not reveal the whole story what do people think of the earnings prospects and other fundamentals?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1756
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 12, 2006 - 07:27 pm: |
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A Point and Figure chart is probably the best instrument to see how the OX is faring.
The longest trend line, dating back to January 2002 with 4 contact points is still unbroken and remains defiant in the face of adversity. The next trend line, barely 15 months of age is also as yet unbroken while the one dating back to June, sporting several touches but one failure is also pointing upwards. And that's where the good news ends. The present short term trend is down and if the trend support should fail here $2.20 is a real possibility.
On the other hand, there is a distance of approx. $1.30 between the two obvious consolidation zones on the chart and one could argue that should the copper and gold price pick up and boom again, a $1.30 move to the next zone is not unlikely.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 288
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 15, 2006 - 04:59 pm: |
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Gentlemen,
I see OXR as a stage 3 formation. However whether we see a continuation (stage 2 resumption) or a breakdown into a stage 4 I believe that its too early to make any definitive comment.
First lets go back in time:
OXR consolidated in a stage 3 for sometime before it broke through the top of the channel into a strong stage 2 resumption.
In that stage 3 it was a range trade - I believe that there is an old OXR thread somewhere in the long term section where we discussed this. And, trying to predict the direction, given the weight of the evidence at hand, balance of probabilities etc was too hard.....it was better to wait for the result, confirm with a pull back that respected support and then modify a range trade to a long position.
Thats what I did that it worked very well on that occasion.
Fast Forward to the present time:
I see a parallel here to the past - a range on offer until we know the direction (with confirmation).
That having been said, there are two slightly different situations for me. First, the high at the start of this stage 3 is quite a bit greater than then other 2. In the earlier situation there was more symmetry. In other words more volatility to date. Second, when I flipped from a range to a long - a long long time ago (!!) - I have pyramided the position and am well in the money.......making the trigger finger very itchy.
If the OX breaks south out of the channel (a strong range of support between 242 and 252) then I see the next logical support level at 215, and will be long gone by then
best regards
Muzza
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 2130
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 15, 2006 - 08:52 pm: |
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muzza
The charts are interesting.
They continue to tell what buyers and sellers are doing during "ranging" periods.
But do they show how quickly sentiment can turn when the company reports it actual profits?
Or, have the analysts got OXR's earnings hanging on the right pegs?
Funnymenials:
OXR is not doing as well from gold as many have thought it would - shrinking margins due to higher costs a big factor. Originally the OX was just knocking out gold, and many investors fail to understand how unimportant it is today as a profit driver. However, if gold does its annual 20% price run soon, then sentiment can change quickly.
Copper production is going to plan (and better) and cash costs are giving excellent profit margins. However, with copper coming off the boil over the past 7 months, and perhaps more downside to come, it is moot the extent that the OX will be marked down in 2007.
Golden Grove is the new "wild card" for the OX. When purchased last year siver, lead and zinc prices were pretty ho hum. Presently we have a very different story and my estimates suggest the byproduct credits can get zinc prices down to near 25 cents/lb into 2007 if the slightly north-trending metals prices continue.
I recall OXR recently suggesting they will rack up a profit of around $500m in calendar 2006.
This figure may not change a lot for the financial year 2007 if the status quo remains. That's unlikely, but what is entirely possible over the next 6 months is that we get a "profit substitution effect", whereby any copper price weakness is compensated for at Golden Grove.
In that event we then have the difference hinging on where gold heads.
So right now I think $3 is a reasonably fair price for the OX, and would only contemplate a re-entry if the gold price went gangbusters again.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 429
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 15, 2006 - 09:22 pm: |
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Everything about OXR's chart suggests a continuation of the uptrend rather than rolling over IMO: the 200 D_MA, 69 DMA, and chart look is +ve - not to mention the various indicators of interest.
Daily chart: Looks like a couple of triangles just itching to break out
Holding but not topping up as yet
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 289
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 16, 2006 - 07:28 am: |
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Rob,
Thanks for the input from the fundamentals perspective.
In the Ox's case perhaps we are all agreed that the bears and bulls are pretty much of equal strength at the moment, and therefore the charts dont really give any predicative insight into the direction of the share price once earnings are reported.
No abnormal volume etc - I havent checked lately, but there has been no significant shareholder trades etc.
Many just view OXR as a "Gold Play" and ignore the other elements.
Here is a chart of GOLD:
This company is offers an interest in physical Gold Bullion. The holder of a Gold Bullion Security
will hold both a redeemable preference share of nominal value and a beneficial interest in approximately 1/10th of one fine troy ounce of physical gold.
Other than the absolute number, the flattening out of price action is very similar to Ox - does this give us insight to the markets linkage of Ox to Gold?
The panel at the top of the chart is a relative strength graph of the GOLD (security) to XJO with a 26 period MA.
regards
Muzza
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 2136
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 16, 2006 - 11:58 am: |
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muzza
Note the high (visual) correlation between OXR and gold.
Expect the OX to cop a caning on monday given weakness in precious metals overnight.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 434
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, December 21, 2006 - 08:33 am: |
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hilarius you raised an interesting question more than one week ago about the prognosis for OXR, and there have been several responses. Your enquiry related to both TA & FA (If the chart does not reveal the whole story what do people think of the earnings prospects and other fundamentals?)
I notice that corporatefile.com.au have recently released "Attention ASX Company Announcements Platform
Lodgement of Open Briefing" at the following hyperlink which contains some FA details ~ copy of the tag attached below.
http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/2006%20review%20&%202007%20outlook%2020.12.06.pdf
corporatefile.com.au
What is the main focus for Oxiana in 2007?
MD Owen Hegarty
Our focus will be to continue the strong operating performance and of course we’re always looking at ways to improve.
1. Prominent Hill - Potential products: Copper and gold concentrates , as the world’s next best copper-gold mine, is a significant project for Oxiana and we want to make sure it continues to go well from a capital expenditure and timing perspective. (impressive vanilla home grown project)
2. We will also be advancing our copper and gold expansions at Sepon and the incremental expansions at Golden Grove - Product: zinc concentrate, copper concentrate, gold/silver concentrate . It’s these growth projects that will drive value for our shareholders. (impressive specialty home grown project)
3. We also place a great deal of importance in maintaining our very good record in safety and environmental and community relations performance. (perhaps OXR is not just interested in slash and burn approach to mining?)
Hegarty continues: It’s an exciting time for Oxiana and our various stakeholders as we look to continue to grow the company towards the ultimate objective of building the next major mining house.
Moreover: "Rising commodity prices have helped boost our earnings and cash flow. We paid an interim dividend and the share price has risen, although we still don’t think it reflects the value that is within the Company in a range of areas. We’ve just got to keep on delivering and that should look after itself:.
I guess the ultimate future of OXR depends on the direction of the price of gold and copper [however other hard commodities are entering OXR's portfolio as we speak], however it is hard to see OXR not becoming the vision of its MD: (next major mining house). Short term if/when the XAO turns down after the christmas rally then OXR share price may follow suit (but that is the opportunity to top up IMO).
hilarius you must have an opinion that is worth sharing in this thread - however the question was well worth asking don't get me wrong. Your opinion could be FA or TA perspective ~ or a combination of both: what do you think is the future for the OX?
FWIW Updated daily chart: RSI, Volume, and DMI starting to look +ve to me - perhaps ready for a swing higher?
I have just noticed that the chart is a bit busy - if it helps draw your own
Am still holding but am likely to take some profit if/when some resistance levels (shown on the chart above) are achieved - then if it behaves and drops towards the 200DMA it will be well worth topping up for the rather rosie future IMO
(Message edited by tryhay on December 21, 2006)
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 564
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 18, 2007 - 08:28 am: |
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Captain consolidation may just be ending for the Ox ~ if the charts below are anything to go by.
This thread suggests OXR has admirable fundamentals and if the recent price/volume action can follow through then I expect to top up soon...
OXR Chart - Certainly looks to be testing the upper resistance right about now
 .........................
Weekly Chart: puts a finer point on it ~ has that familiar pattern
Cu Chart Yr:Breakout occurring.....Copper Overnight: something is pushing Copper price higher
 ...............
anyone else following it?
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cat_lady
Member
Username: cat_lady
Post Number: 205
Registered: 10-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 18, 2007 - 02:24 pm: |
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tryhay
on copper gains. quote from huntley's:
London Metal Exchange copper jumped to a seven month high, bolstering the entire base metals complex, with further gains expected overnight. Fund and speculative buying pushed copper prices sharply higher with market activity heating up once prices broke through $7,900/ton. A fall in LME copper stocks by 2,575 tons initially supported prices. LME copper stocks have declined roughly 5% from the start of April. Moreover, stronger than expected US housing starts figures were also very supportive for construction-intensive copper, according to market participants.
cat lady
Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 567
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 07:52 am: |
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Hi cat_lady
That is interesting that huntley's have discussed copper recently as well. Oxiana has interests in Gold, Silver, Copper & Zinc ~ with a considerable pipeline of projects, so it seems like a good pick all round.
Topped up late last week on the basis of the chart ~ can not tell what the market is doing (apart from going gangbusters presently) so worth following its lead until sentiment changes.
Weekly chart looks +ve IMO:
PS Seems to have a good approach to hedging of production (particularly to gold at Wiluna, etc). Wonder what the AGM will reveal to the market ~ bad news NOT I'm sure
(Message edited by tryhay on April 22, 2007)
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magneto
Member
Username: magneto
Post Number: 157
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 09:07 am: |
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Tryhay,
It looks like I hold/follow many of the same shares as you  .
IMHO, OXR continues to range and needs a clear break above 3.25+
I hold long.
Sincerely,
Mag
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 568
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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