GTP

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ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 351
Registered: 10-2005

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Wednesday, December 13, 2006 - 06:54 pm:

In October I noticed the narrowing symmetrical swings in GTP. I saw the squeeze and pulled the trigger. The stock came crashing down 5% today and recovered by the close.

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ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 400
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Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 07:06 pm:

A beautiful TMF triangle can be seen.

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ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

peterloh

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Post Number: 2287
Registered: 03-2003

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Friday, January 05, 2007 - 09:50 am:

cool one,

I look for fallen angels with good fundamentals and with good profitability.The recent gloom caused by the government towards MIS scheme has since been cleared up and GTP is one of those worst affected. I expect GTP to recover and bought some last week.Yesterday slight retracement provided another opportunity to add more.I missed the first wave of the run up and was waiting for the recent retracement to end.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 436
Registered: 10-2005

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Friday, January 12, 2007 - 11:06 pm:

The TMF has broken to the top and the Bollinger Band is tightening and horizontal.

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ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 502
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 07:14 pm:

I got stopped out for a small loss and four months of time. I entered at $2.59. The stock went to $3.19 (+23%) and then I got stopped out at $2.54 (-20% aka -2% of my buy price).

People always talk about moving your stop to break even. I can't do this because in most instances the price pulls back to just under my buy point. A reason may be because I use buy stop orders triggered by upwards movements.

I realise this stock was under the MAs and the chance of success was small and hence I'll look for a more promising play now.

One can say that the lower one buys a stock the greater the profit:loss ratio (profitability of a pick) but the worst the win:loss ratio (success rate of the pick). This "discovery" may have coined the term "buy high sell higher".

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ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

wadda

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Post Number: 411
Registered: 10-2002

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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 09:50 pm:

Ohk,

I used a combination of a couple of indicators and broke even on GTP as the charts shows. Initial stop was below the weekly swing low but raised it to breakeven when the price established outside the trendline.

Peterloh...you did well with TSE, but are you still hanging on to GTP?

Cheers,

wadda

"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

peterloh

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Post Number: 2340
Registered: 03-2003

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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 10:19 pm:

Chart wise, this is only a range trade, with GTP in a long term down trend, it is not so appealing to chartists.Away from this,GTP is trading on a low pe of 6.44 as against the All Ordinaries of 15. Surely this one is on the radar of value fund managers like PPT,IFL,Marple Brown Abbot,Lazard Australian Equities and AMP Value Australian Equities, depending on the fund managers' objectives.With a dividend yield of 5.88%, it may also comes into the radar of fund managers that look for high yielding shares.

GTP is in the index of the All Ordinaries, S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries,S&P/ASX 200 & 300 Industrials,S&P/ASX 200 & 300,
S&P/ASX 200 & 300 Materials (Industry Group).Fund Managers that have low tracking error normally tracked the index.

GTP has changed its year ending from 30th June to 30th September so that they will benefit from the sales that came in during the quarters too late to be included for June but enough time to be included in the September Quarter.This may seem to be like a manipulation of the profit by the different date for its financial year ending.Other similar companies have not chosen this road.

The whole sector of Managed Investment schemes is going through retracement. If we take a long term perspective of buying straw hats in winter,alluding to a giveaway good, then if one has the patience to wait for 6 months for a percentage of return, then GTP may be worth having a look.One may like to time the entry by keeping watch on a breakout or a break of the short term retracement.If we follow the pattern of the chart of GTP, it is due for a trot any time now.It may yet test the $2.40 level before bouncing back, a double bottom in the making.I have bought this one at $2.83 and therefore slightly under water, however I am prepared to play a waiting game as to me it is very much under value. I cannot find anything wrong with the company so far, and there fore attribute to the retracement of it being cyclical and GTP has behaved this way in the past.Do your own DD if you are looking at this one. With GTP, I am only looking at an annual return of 25%.I am having a look at Carbon Credits, which if introduced, GTP may have quite a few, being a grower of forests.

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 505
Registered: 10-2005

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Wednesday, February 07, 2007 - 10:20 am:

I didn't mention it but while I was holding GTP I noticed the horizontal support that had built up at $2.76 between 19/12/2006 and 23/01/2007. I was long and I thought: "Boy if this gets broken it would make a great short."

If I wasn't limited to the long side I probably would have changed sides.

I am glad I didn't move my long stop from $2.54 to $2.49. It would have cost me today.

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ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

peterloh

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Post Number: 2346
Registered: 03-2003

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Wednesday, February 07, 2007 - 10:31 am:

Cool One, I bought more of GTP and TIM this morning as I believe both the companies are heavily oversold.What has been review was already on the cards, and the smart ones had already exited or scale down their holdings that include me. I bought more this morning to average down, I am sure there is going to be a rebound of the SP from this very low level.

peterloh

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Post Number: 2349
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Wednesday, February 07, 2007 - 02:31 pm:

AS I write GTP has already recovered 50% of their initial SP.TIM is off its low.The value fund managers are having a field day collecting these shares, any reconsideration by the government to offer a transitional period will trigger a short covering.I am fairly bullish at this level.The shares at this level will give a tremendous yield.I would like to think, management will do a share buyback to reduce the surplus capital, this will in turn gives support to the share price.Meanwhile they should stick to timber products which still have the tax deduction eligibility for their initial investments offer to their clients.

msparks

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Post Number: 749
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Wednesday, February 07, 2007 - 03:30 pm:

Hi PL
Do you know why Fea and Wilmont and Gns are not affected too much.
Don't they have investment schemes ? or was the tax break only stopped for non forestry schemes.

tim, gtp and s_hv have been dumped, any others in the same boat ?

peterloh

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Post Number: 2350
Registered: 03-2003

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Wednesday, February 07, 2007 - 05:10 pm:

MS,

Currently they only affect non forestry product.TIM is the most affected and to a lesser extend GTP.

If the management of TIM is any good, there are many ways out, like capital restructuring etc. The have hugh recurring fees from the existing investment which will help them with their cash flow and profitability. They should be looking at cost reduction and redeployed their resources.They can merge with other similar companies. I do not think it is terminal and in fact the big share transaction is an indication some one is actually collecting TIM and TIM shares at this level.

Below is the quote from the Assistant Minister:

Non-Forestry Managed Investment Schemes
On 21 December 2006 I announced jointly with the Minister for Fisheries, Forestry and Conservation, the new arrangements for the taxation of investments in forestry Managed Investment Schemes (MIS). I also announced that the Government would consider the issue of taxation arrangements for non-forestry agribusiness MIS in the new year.

The Government has decided it is not disposed to introduce a similar taxation arrangement for investments in non-forestry agribusiness MIS. I reported to the Party Room on the Government’s decisions relating to Managed Investment Schemes today.

The Government, the ATO and the forestry and non-forestry agribusiness MIS industry have been involved in extensive discussions in recent months over the future tax treatment of investments in such MIS.

During these discussions, the ATO has indicated that developments in this area of the law have required the ATO to reconsider its interpretation of the current taxation law as it applies to both forestry and non-forestry MIS investments.

The ATO has advised the Government that it is preparing a draft Taxation Ruling which will set out its reconsidered position which will apply to arrangements entered into after 30 June 2007. The ATO has also advised that, while the new draft ruling will be subject to the usual consultation processes, it does not intend to issue any Product Rulings for investments in forestry and non-forestry agribusiness MIS after the 2006-2007 year based on its previous interpretation of the law. The ATO has stated that it would continue to issue Product Rulings for investments made prior to 1 July 2007.

The effect of this change of interpretation of the current law is that investors in MIS would no longer be able to claim upfront deductions for their contributions to the MIS on the basis that the investor is ‘carrying on a business’.

Investments in MIS that are covered by existing product rulings that allow immediate deductibility for the investor’s initial contribution, and for contributions in subsequent years, will be protected (provided the MIS continues to operate in the manner described in the application for the product ruling).

As a result of this change of view by the ATO, the Government took its decision in relation to forestry MIS. With effect from 1 July 2007, investors in forestry MIS will be entitled to an upfront statutory deduction for all expenditure, provided that at least 70 per cent of the expenditure is directly related to developing forestry. Under the new legislation, it will not be necessary for investors in forestry to demonstrate that they are carrying on a business in order to claim the statutory deduction.

This decision will ensure the continued expansion of our plantation forestry estate and lends support to the industry’s 2020 vision.

The effect of the likely change in interpretation by the ATO will be to place investments in non-forestry agribusiness MIS on the same footing as other ‘passive’ investments in agriculture.

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