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     ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 361
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 15, 2006 - 04:42 pm: |  
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Due to the price carnage over the last 12 months I got to zoom into the chart.
The AWB price has gone sideways while the TMF went up. The SAR got tripped. The price stayed above the trip day. Three DOJI have occurred. So I had put in my buy stop limit $2.59. It got triggered by a drip buyer of 443 lots at 14:54pm. Then there was silence. I checked that my order with a measly 1540 lots got filled. A moment later a 200,000 lot buyer gulped up all shares at $2.59/$2.60. By the close it seemed everybody wanted to be out of AWB before the weekend.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 433
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 12, 2007 - 10:44 pm: |
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A few more sleeps and this chart will lose its $6.00 data very quickly. The chart could tighten up nicely between $5.00 and $2.50 by March.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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drummerboy
Member
Username: drummerboy
Post Number: 1
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 15, 2007 - 04:34 am: |
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Hi,
I'm pretty new to all this charting stuff, so I'd accept any criticisms! I've been watching AWB for a couple of weeks now and I'm just thinking it's ready to turn. I know all us newbies are renowned for trying to pick the bottom of the market, but technically (and I say this from a very novice standpoint) everything looks good.
My first chart shows how it's gone since March this year:
That was then, this is now:
There's been a bullish triple divergence in the last 2 months, based on the Commodity Channel Index, and another little triple one finished last week. The price crossed above the 20 day EMA on Friday, and it's just done a nice triple bottom with a little Rising Three Method candlestick formation (four actually). The slow stochastic just crossed above 30 and the volume is increasing (above the 21 day EMA on Friday). It's lowest previous point in history (October 31st '06 - $2.38) was exactly at the most recent minor 38.2% retracement level now (very small on the first chart), and the price closed above this on Friday at $2.45 (just below the most recent 61.8% resistance level). When it crosses this, which I'm assuming it will soon, it should start moving up to above $2.60/65 before too long, and then hopefully head on towards the $3.00 mark that it passed through on August 31st... if all goes according to plan!
Anyway, what do you think?
It'd be nice if it really was the bottom!
Cheers...
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moleman
Member
Username: moleman
Post Number: 295
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 15, 2007 - 07:26 pm: |
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Hi DrummerBoy
Welcome to IC. I'll have a shot - to trade this as a long term trade you'd need more confirmation that AWB has changed its trend from down to up as AWB has obviously been in a downtrend since the beginning of July. Eventually price will be so cheap that the large guys will take an interest but why should it be now? There's a drought, bad PR, where's it going to get its Oomph to trade higher?
Personally I can't see the divergences you've highlighted on CCI. Why not start those lines around 7/8, 1/9 and 1/10 and draw them sloping down? And the slow stochastic has crossed above 30 a couple of times before and prices kept falling. Why shouldn't this happen again? When I looked at the chart I noticed higher volume meant either price went down or went down a few days later. This shouldn't happen if buyers are committed. The move above the top resistance line is interesting as is the move above the 20 day EMA. But my 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (buying pressure indicator) is showing strong distribution.
Before AWB moves higher I think a base will need to be formed as value is recognised at some stage, or some really good reason for prices to shoot higher happens. At this stage I think the odds are for AWB to move down or sideways. If you buy now it may be the bottom - who knows, how can you tell? Its certainly not a high probability trade.
Good luck with your trading
MM
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drummerboy
Member
Username: drummerboy
Post Number: 1
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 17, 2007 - 11:08 pm: |
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Hey moleman,
Thanks for the reply and the advice. It's good to be able to get some feedback. I've been trying to work everything out for myself so far, but I might be trying to get too technical for my own good! I'm not doing too badly overall, but at the same time I'm starting out small just to get the hang of it. Anyway, I'll keep at it. Thanks again,
Cheers...
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 255
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 18, 2007 - 10:08 am: |
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drummerboy
just a bit of advice -- others will probably strongly disagree:
First off --- drop all the indicators except Volume .
this leaves u with a BAR chart + Vol -- only .
use both Weekly and Daily -- Wky is the higher hierarchy .
Learn to understand these charts eg:
long / short term trend lines.
past / nearby support/resistance levels
long /short term patterns
double tops/bottoms
higher/lower HIGHS and LOWS
What is Volume doing at these levels :
going with/against the move ?
stopping Volume ?
relative volume
Volume relative to the Bar's spread (compression/expansion)?.
THIS IS CHART READING
--------------------------------------------------------------------
now move on to the secondary part -- T/A
from your now understanding of HOW to "read a chart" you will understand what the indicators are actually indicating which you should have picked up any how from "reading the chart" .
next determine the TYPE of trading your going to do
Long Term Trend Following
Medium Term Position Trading
Short Term (3-10 days) breakout/pattern Trading
then select the tools/indicators for that type of style .
eg:
GMMA , ADX :for Long/Med Term
BBs : Short/ Med Terms
RSI : ( variable settings ) Short Term
BUT these are only third in the hierarchy .
----------------------------------------------------------------
Buy/read/comprehend at least one good " Trading Book " this is the vital part , unless you just want to stay at the Analysis level.
Suggested titles, of which there is very few:
Trading in the Zone -- Mark Douglass (psychology)
Better Trading --- Darryl Guppy (trade/money management)
Adaptive Analysis -- Nick Radge (trade management)
Licensed to Profit --- Chris Shea (psychology).
-----------------------------------------------------------
just a few thoughts to help you on your way .
just disregard them if you disagree .
Cheers.
.
(Message edited by coyotte on October 18, 2007)
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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drummerboy
Member
Username: drummerboy
Post Number: 2
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 18, 2007 - 11:47 pm: |
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Cheers Coyote,
Thanks heaps for the heads up. I've taken it all on board. The more I learn the less stupid I'll look!
Thanks again...
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drummerboy
Member
Username: drummerboy
Post Number: 3
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 18, 2007 - 11:49 pm: |
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Sorry 'coyotte'. Spelt your name wrong before. I'll look less stupid from....... NOW!
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 262
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 19, 2007 - 08:27 am: |
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drummerboy :
take note of this chart AND -- not a indicator in sight , even Volume is basically unusable .
the chart is Wed but for this purpose it's o/k - as it brokeout Thurs (can'nt be accused of ramping)
Note the Price range a $1 to $4 stock
.
1: the blowoff there from 1.10 to 1.46 is what is known as a flagpole -- from the high you have a descending channel ,this formation must always be opposite the main trend and must not fall greater than 50% of the pole.
from here measure from the resistance area prior to the pole forming @1.16 to the top of the pole @ 1.46 gives a range of 0.30 cents -- add the 0.30c to the breakout level @ 1.42.
Target 1.72
Entry 1.42
Stop 1.30 (50% of flagpole )
so you end up with a potential gain of .30 to potential loss of .12c --- the odds are in your favour plus a reliable pattern .
You know WHEN to take profits as well as WHEN to take losses. --- clearcut
you could have entered any time after the 1st 3 days when it obviuse the flag was forming --- generally waiting for confirmation will cost u a lot of profit -- better to enter early with a very tight stop incase your wrong -- will be 50% of the time on a early entry.
For some reason there is a heap of these Flag patterns around at the moment -- just do scan for a new High over the last 10 days and eyeball .
(Message edited by coyotte on October 19, 2007)
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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drummerboy
Member
Username: drummerboy
Post Number: 4
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 19, 2007 - 11:53 am: |
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Have a look at AWB at the moment, 11:50am 19/10/07. Is that a "shooting star" type thing with more downside to come, or does it point to a reversal? Here's the news article that helped it up:
AWB Raises FY07 Underlying Profit A$80M-A$90M
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian agribusiness AWB Ltd. (AWB.AU) Friday firmed up its underlying profit projection for last fiscal year ended Sept. 30.
AWB now sees underlying profit, a pre-tax pre-amortization measure, for the period in a range A$80 million to A$90 million. Previously the company advised this measure would be at the lower end of analyst's consensus forecasts which in February were in a range A$67 million to A$116 million.
Managing Director Gordon Davis also advised net profit for last fiscal year would be in a range A$25 million to A$30 million, down from analysts expectations around A$36 million, but which includes an already disclosed write down of A$11.3 million for one-time items.
The better-than-expected trading result was largely attributed to the international commodities business which benefited from favorable commodity trading conditions, particularly in the latter p[art of last fiscal year, he said in a statement.
The full fiscal year result will be issued Nov. 21.
-By Ray Brindal, Dow Jones Newswires; 612-6208-0902; ray.brindal@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 18, 2007 20:00 ET (00:00 GMT)
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 263
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 19, 2007 - 01:04 pm: |
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AWB:
may be a idea to look for a LOW above the two horizontal lines , the bottom one would a early warning -- the higher one -- the " low before high " would be a Entry Signal -- a low with a gap above this level would be excellent .
A key bar here would appear the 6th bar back -- a compressed bar with good Vol, followed by a rising Vol trend line .
that bar may be the 1st "higher low" -- could make a good STOP until the next (hopefully) higher low . --- your looking for 3 swing higher lows before a full position is taken up.
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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drummerboy
Member
Username: drummerboy
Post Number: 5
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 19, 2007 - 01:45 pm: |
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Wow, you were spot on with those horizontal lines! An excellent low? After having put a stop where you suggested originally would you put the second stop where I've marked it after waiting to see where the retracement comes back to at least, or what?
Thanks again, coyotte...
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 264
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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