BSG - Ready to take Off

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peterloh

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Wednesday, January 03, 2007 - 03:36 pm:

Gold price has been going up again.BSG is in both silver and gold.As the year starts, BSG is getting closer to production.As Chinese New Year approaches, the demand for gold jewellery increases.It is going to be the year of the pig, an indication of prosperity to come.

I have bought BSG for a short term trade, but as gold prices are going up now and there are not many gold producers left I thought it is timely to start a longer term trade for BSG.

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The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

peterloh

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Wednesday, January 10, 2007 - 01:50 pm:

Gold price came back to the $600 level last week. On tuesday night gold was up $3,last night at closed in New York, gold was up $3.80 and silver was up 16c per oz.BSG returned to the triangle.It came back to $2.70, where the major support is.BSG is one of the gold and silver companies paying a dividend, small as it is. BSG is going into production in the later part of the year, with scale in silver and gold and looks to be a very attractive target for a bigger resource company.I have been adding more BSG to my portfolio as it comes to the major support level of $2.70.I bought more on Monday and today,as I thought at this level, BSG is looking attractive for the long term.I never had BSG as a long term proposition,but with it coming on to production, this year, I thought it is worth accumulating.Once production has started, I doubt it will ever visit this level again. Having said that, as the mine is in Mexico, there is geo-political risk.

peterloh

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Friday, February 02, 2007 - 12:47 am:

The last weekly white engulfing candle with volume augurs well for BSG. Will it test the ATH this time.General reserves have been up graded and price of gold has almost gone up over $42 US since last posted.

peterloh

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Monday, February 05, 2007 - 10:52 pm:

Gold price dropped $12.80 on Friday night with DOW JONES down 20 points.The market fell today but BSG continues on with another white candle.Meanwhile volume has been building up for BSG.BSG recovers 16% in 5 days and it looks like it wants to break the $3 level in a hurry.
Bought more when it fell below $2.75.Do your own DD.

wadda

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Monday, February 05, 2007 - 11:34 pm:

It's looking pretty good for you Peter having broken out of a trend channel, though today's climb was on a bit less volume - momentum slowing down?

Should have jumped on board myself!

Regards,

wadda

"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

peterloh

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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 01:26 am:

Hi wadda,

The 6 short term trades called last year was spot on, the last long term called was a nightmare.Great Dane called this one spot on at $2.60, it went below that but bounce off its low on the same day.
I am bullish on gold, however I have put BSG as an explorer yet to get into production. BSG has upgraded its general reserves and resource. Without an income flow to-date it depends on its future production near the end of the 2007 calender year/beginning of 2008.
I have this for the long term, and with its mine in Mexico, there is always a geopolitical risk.Again I am looking at the risk reward factor when I have this a long term trade, one I am not that confident, though short term, BSG is really looking good.

fibonacci

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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 07:34 am:

Peter,

Another view of price action, especially as you always have Bollinger's Bands on your charts.

bsg

I've roughly drawn "%b" on the chart. It's a very simple indicator, simply calculated, being the %distance between lower and upper bands. If price has excursions outside bands then 100% and 0% can be exceeded.

Bollinger's big "thing" about his bands are that they are relative to current price action i.e. they adapt automatically to changing circumstances which accounts for swings in %b that look, at first glance to not reflect price action e.g. last swing up barely exceeds previous high but on %b it is more than double [bands were falling.]

Interpretation focuses on extremity of swings near 100 or 0 and as is popular in TA centres on divergences. The divergence occurs between price action and that action relative to the upper or lower bands. At the top he labels them "M"s of various shapes and at the bottom he labels them "W"s. I also believe that these divergences have far greater relevance in chart analysis as they are a DIVERGENCE of PRICE not just a derivative of price [indicators.]

On this chart we have quite a good bullish divergence at a "W" low. That's the setup, trigger was the bullish engulfing/outside day on 30 Jan.. There was also a small "M" at the top. Now a BB followed would have probably sold half or tightened trailing stop as price action near upper band could give further signals. Exceeding upper band today would be a sign of strength and could mean a run up the upper band.

This post was written as a further perspective on BSG but also as a further push for full suites of indicators to be completed for various authors and in my case, of course, a full set of Bollinger's. You there Colin?

John

You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.

peterloh

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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 08:18 am:

Thank you fibonacci, for such an informative post.I have used Bollinger Bands as a price action, an indication whether it is moving upwards or downwards. I have never used BB as a means of calculation, another perspective I have learned today. For many years I have used Fibonacci percentage to calculate the various waves as a target percentage, so your post is another aspect I would like to have a look at.Is there any book you can recommend that I should have a look at?

fibonacci

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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 09:12 am:

Peter,

Thanks for your kind words I follow your posts quite regularly because of your FA comments.

John Bollinger's only book is, not surprisingly,
"Bollinger on Bollinger Bands", McGraw-Hill.

I'd recommend it, not because it's on bands but because it's no frills, pertinent, clearly explained and simple. Attributes of a good trading plan?

His websites are similarly precise.

http://www.bollingeronbollingerbands.com/

John

You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.

peterloh

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Friday, February 09, 2007 - 11:10 am:

Look like BSG is ranging again, but should race pass the $3 mark fairly quickly.

fibonacci

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Thursday, February 15, 2007 - 12:17 pm:

Peter,
Now I believe TA is signalling that the countdown is almost down to "liftoff".

bsg

Daily upper BBand did coincide with a pause but price action looks positive to me: viz. shallow pause on decreasing volume and a succession of small higher lows.

I guess to be sure, to be sure, a close above $3 would be necessary.

I've also included weekly BB this time as they can be helpful in deciding where to take some profits off the table e.g. if Upper Weekly BBand is reached. Someone interested in "weight of evidence" would also note proximity to previous highs. It should be noted that Weekly BBs are more readily exceeded, especially on daily close, than daily BBs so it's often better to monitor price action closely at upper BB [if it's a short-term trade only] rather than precipitately closing. I also use Bollinger's settings of 2xSD on 20 bar Sma.

John

You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.

peterloh

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Thursday, February 15, 2007 - 01:14 pm:

fibonacci, agree with you this one should knock over the $3 mark any time now.Gold has already gone up about 10% since last month. BSG is a favourite for day traders due to its volatility,big swing.However the fundamentals have improved due to that they are near production date, improved gold prices and upgrade in their reserves and resources.