The influence of weather

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napolian

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Monday, February 12, 2007 - 10:31 am:

Slightly left of centre here, but psychology shows that when the weather is doom & gloom, people have a tendency to do things in a more negative manner... e.g... not go to the beach because it is raining, say to the wife... it looks like crap out there etc...etc..

If you hear something time and time again, it will have a definite influence over you be it good or bad.

How many times have you heard people say gee, it looks really bad out there today when in fact it is merely raining.

It would be interesting to see how the market reacts to inclement weather and then to those great beach filled sunny days.

N

gohard

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Saturday, July 05, 2008 - 05:12 pm:

Second go at this Bertha,as requested early days CC.
All good G

gohard

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Monday, July 07, 2008 - 10:49 am:

Update CC Bermuda looks like a possible destination certainly appears to be building.
That's the little dot above the right centre I lived there for 2 years beautiful island in the middle of the Atlantic.

paddy

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Monday, July 07, 2008 - 11:21 pm:

By forecast from NHC . If Hurricane Bertha stays the forecasted track then late Saturday or early Sunday it should be visiting Bermuda.

gohard

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 11:25 am:

Just reading the latest I am receiving Paddy and this is a copy of the report.The colour shot is interesting.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE NOW SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0 BUT
OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0 FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT MAKING BERTHA A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
BERTHA'S INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
DIFFICULTIES OF FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL CYCLES. AS A RESULT...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. IN A DAY OR TWO...THE GFS
MODEL STILL INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH BASE THEIR SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE
GFS...SHOW WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...BOTH INDICATIONS
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. SINCE BERTHA COULD BE WOBBLING...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE IS 300/10. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME WEAK LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...IT IS STILL WAY TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA WILL AFFECT BERMUDA.

paddy

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 12:01 pm:

gohard : I had read that report . I log in periodically and check for both Atlantic and Pacific as both can affect our weather. Last TD gave us some rain and river had water for first time since sometime in 2007 . Of course flow will be short lived . Was too late for all the fish that died in the reservoir or perhaps what was a reservoir. Vultures had many days of feasting onsun cooked perch .

I haven't found a match of the photo you posted . Where does it come from?

Regards,

Paddy

gohard

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 12:36 pm:

Paddy for your information it comes from this site.Scroll down and click on the Bertha link it then brings up the general cover you then go to images and the rest are revealed.
Enjoy G

http://tinyurl.com/5kph4r

paddy

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 03:58 pm:

Thanks gohard . Delay in reply as I had to shut down my system due to remnant of TD-E . Bloody great thunderstorm with lots of rain and lightning, and accompanying power outages .

Looks like my estimate of late Saturday - early Sunday might come to fruition. Not that I wish a hurricane on anyone .

Once spent a terrifying night in a trailer court west of Gladstone. Lots of trees came down but all in between the caravans and we drank lots of beer to keep Tidalick happy .

Looks like XJO getting set for a big fall. Post on daily bread.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Friday, July 18, 2008 - 08:36 am:

Present Forecast :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. WHILE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
MOVING INLAND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

gohard

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Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 07:36 pm:

Paddy,CC,
Interesting development facing this area lots of colour in the image. Bertha still tracking across the Atlantic.

paddy

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Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 11:08 pm:

Gohard:

Yes nice color of TD 3 but no threat to facilities in Gulf of Mexico. There is a potential system that could develop but not really anything yet . If develops then worth a post.

Have a good one.

Paddy

gohard

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 11:12 am:

Take up the weather Paddy interesting development in the new one Dolly ,Cristobal still hanging in.
Cheers G

Dolly

Cristobal

Dolly

paddy

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 12:49 pm:

Gohard: Yes I have been watching Dolly and wondering ; What if it slips past the Yucatan? Will it strengthen enough to be of concern to the oil platforms? Price of oil not reflecting anything YET. If Dolly doesn't weaken from the Yucatan crossing then tomorrow may see some reaction in the price of oil.

Been several storms / hurricanes on the west side of Mexico. Will be right happy as long as they keep heading west . One day I know we will have the right conditions and one will traverse up the Sea of Cortez and do all kinds of damage plus turn the desert into a place of many colors.

I assume that the weather south of the Yucatan is related to the system developing of the west coast .

Adios

Paddy

paddy

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