The influence of weather

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napolian

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Monday, February 12, 2007 - 10:31 am:

Slightly left of centre here, but psychology shows that when the weather is doom & gloom, people have a tendency to do things in a more negative manner... e.g... not go to the beach because it is raining, say to the wife... it looks like crap out there etc...etc..

If you hear something time and time again, it will have a definite influence over you be it good or bad.

How many times have you heard people say gee, it looks really bad out there today when in fact it is merely raining.

It would be interesting to see how the market reacts to inclement weather and then to those great beach filled sunny days.

N

gohard

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Saturday, July 05, 2008 - 05:12 pm:

Second go at this Bertha,as requested early days CC.
All good G

gohard

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Monday, July 07, 2008 - 10:49 am:

Update CC Bermuda looks like a possible destination certainly appears to be building.
That's the little dot above the right centre I lived there for 2 years beautiful island in the middle of the Atlantic.

paddy

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Monday, July 07, 2008 - 11:21 pm:

By forecast from NHC . If Hurricane Bertha stays the forecasted track then late Saturday or early Sunday it should be visiting Bermuda.

gohard

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 11:25 am:

Just reading the latest I am receiving Paddy and this is a copy of the report.The colour shot is interesting.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE NOW SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0 BUT
OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0 FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT MAKING BERTHA A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
BERTHA'S INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE
DIFFICULTIES OF FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL CYCLES. AS A RESULT...SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. IN A DAY OR TWO...THE GFS
MODEL STILL INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH BASE THEIR SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE
GFS...SHOW WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...BOTH INDICATIONS
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. SINCE BERTHA COULD BE WOBBLING...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE IS 300/10. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME WEAK LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...IT IS STILL WAY TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA WILL AFFECT BERMUDA.

paddy

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 12:01 pm:

gohard : I had read that report . I log in periodically and check for both Atlantic and Pacific as both can affect our weather. Last TD gave us some rain and river had water for first time since sometime in 2007 . Of course flow will be short lived . Was too late for all the fish that died in the reservoir or perhaps what was a reservoir. Vultures had many days of feasting onsun cooked perch .

I haven't found a match of the photo you posted . Where does it come from?

Regards,

Paddy

gohard

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 12:36 pm:

Paddy for your information it comes from this site.Scroll down and click on the Bertha link it then brings up the general cover you then go to images and the rest are revealed.
Enjoy G

http://tinyurl.com/5kph4r

paddy

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 03:58 pm:

Thanks gohard . Delay in reply as I had to shut down my system due to remnant of TD-E . Bloody great thunderstorm with lots of rain and lightning, and accompanying power outages .

Looks like my estimate of late Saturday - early Sunday might come to fruition. Not that I wish a hurricane on anyone .

Once spent a terrifying night in a trailer court west of Gladstone. Lots of trees came down but all in between the caravans and we drank lots of beer to keep Tidalick happy .

Looks like XJO getting set for a big fall. Post on daily bread.

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Friday, July 18, 2008 - 08:36 am:

Present Forecast :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. WHILE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
MOVING INLAND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

gohard

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Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 07:36 pm:

Paddy,CC,
Interesting development facing this area lots of colour in the image. Bertha still tracking across the Atlantic.

paddy

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Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 11:08 pm:

Gohard:

Yes nice color of TD 3 but no threat to facilities in Gulf of Mexico. There is a potential system that could develop but not really anything yet . If develops then worth a post.

Have a good one.

Paddy

gohard

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 11:12 am:

Take up the weather Paddy interesting development in the new one Dolly ,Cristobal still hanging in.
Cheers G

Dolly

Cristobal

Dolly

paddy

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Monday, July 21, 2008 - 12:49 pm:

Gohard: Yes I have been watching Dolly and wondering ; What if it slips past the Yucatan? Will it strengthen enough to be of concern to the oil platforms? Price of oil not reflecting anything YET. If Dolly doesn't weaken from the Yucatan crossing then tomorrow may see some reaction in the price of oil.

Been several storms / hurricanes on the west side of Mexico. Will be right happy as long as they keep heading west . One day I know we will have the right conditions and one will traverse up the Sea of Cortez and do all kinds of damage plus turn the desert into a place of many colors.

I assume that the weather south of the Yucatan is related to the system developing of the west coast .

Adios

Paddy

paddy

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Sunday, August 03, 2008 - 06:52 am:

gohard : maybe one of these potentials will create some 'oil hype".

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Saturday, August 16, 2008 - 09:04 am:

gohard : From previous post #2 has made it to Tropical storm status. They are not really sure where it is going - bit of westward drift on projected route and could become a "real" concern for oil interests .

This development is the reason, I believe, for the rebound from the Low today of $111.34 to a Close of $113.77 Monday will be an interesting day in the Dow and WTIC. One will go UP and the other Down depending on Fay.

.....................Tropical Storm Fay

gohard

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 10:57 am:

Paddy,
Fay is starting to do damage and drifting towards the gulf rough time ahead.

deanrosario

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 12:38 pm:

Hi Napolian

Not sure if you're still around but I just noticed this thread and it jogged my memory about an article I read 4 years ago!

Dean

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~shumway/papers.dir/weather.html

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

paddy

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 04:52 pm:

Gohard: Reply delayed by severe thunderstorm with lots of rain in very short period of time. On high ground so able to watch the streets turn into rivers . neighbors didn't have a "rairoad running through middle of house" - they had a river. Never had that happen to them in 30 years .

Yes Fay is doing her thing to the oil futures. Up at $115 and change. Some rigs have already been evacuated . Just imagine what another 60 mile shift , in track, to the west would do to oil price.

I have included the latest image from NCEP/TPC.

..............

gohard

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008 - 08:12 pm:

Yo Paddy this is the real thing, hold on to to the roof tops the oil wells are the target.

gohard

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008 - 08:15 pm:

The real thing in colour. Has a wide base !!!!

paddy

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008 - 11:17 pm:

Gohard : Yes this could be a doozy. Strange though the oil price has not started to rise . Perhaps "they" want to complete the correction and leave the big jump for the weekend.

Would appear now that it is a question of how many platforms, etc are going to be visited

From latest : "MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS."

Neptune is in Green Canyon

paddy

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008 - 12:25 am:

Gohard : They woke up and got the message.When I posted prior message oil was $114 and change - NOW $117.43 and was up to $117.89 .

Just think of a 4 or 5 chugging up the Gulf to test the "levies" . Will King Neptune test BHP Neptune? Time will tell .

Regards,

Paddy

paddy

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008 - 01:30 am:

Gohard: Oil now $117.52 . Lining up for Green Canyon . They better be evacuating workers .

paddy

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008 - 07:10 am:

'If Gustav is able to thread the needle, passing through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, it could intensify to Category 4 or 5 strength over the warm water in the Gulf.'

— AccuWeather.com

paddy

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008 - 11:35 pm:

IN THE LONGER-TERM... THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS...BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

-------------NEPTUNE GET READY FOR THE KING

-----------

paddy

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Saturday, August 30, 2008 - 10:24 pm:

Gustavo will arrive with Gusto. latest from NHC:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THERE.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.}

..............GUSTAV

paddy

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Sunday, August 31, 2008 - 04:42 am:

gohard : What comes after FIVE ?

Latest from NHC :

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

--------------GUSTAV - CATEGORY FOUR

gohard

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Sunday, August 31, 2008 - 09:51 am:

A nightmare me thinks, batten down the hatches. Latest image from same site new web new page.

gohard

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Sunday, August 31, 2008 - 10:06 am:

This is the new link I think everyone will be interested in this site just click on the cyclone/ hurricane and a whole new world is shown use the radio button and click boxes to give variations of the readings brilliant.
all good G
http://xrl.in/e59

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paddy

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Sunday, August 31, 2008 - 12:01 pm:

gohard; I do believe you are right in your description of Hurricane above 5 - NIGHTMARE . Have experienced them but nothing major - hurricane and one tornado - all in Queensland.

This site is fantastic . All that is missing are the oil platforms and refineries .

Tried posting with GUSTAV - too big for site.

Paddy