Archive through October 17, 2006
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     peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1883
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 22, 2006 - 07:57 pm: | 
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My house is on the line, but this is not for every one.
When I first joined incredible charts, I received a friendly well come from spider.I told spider that it was a "hoppy" of mine, it should be rephrase as a "passion" of mine.The word "hobby" was projected wrongly and shouldn't have been used. I sleep, eat and think, the stock market, come rain or shine.I follow trough on CNBC, Bloomberg etc almost every night and morning. I read widely and researched professional journals and even attended University to obtain a Masters in the relevant area, not that it helps me a lot but it does help me to understand investment and other aspects of investment.Yes I have done it the hard way, even drawing charts manually when I was first taught to do it by a chartist, David Jones, and my first charting book was by Ivan Kristen an Australian " Listen to the market". Today, I have my own library of charting books.I was never taught to trade, it is different from the art of charting.It has never been easy, and even today I do not think it is easy.I projected wrongly because I have a full time business which I do fairly well, so I call my trading activities a hobby.One thing with me is that I have always like to meet successful people, likewise in trading I made it an effort to travel down to Melbourne to meet spider, the captain and a few others.I studied at the Australian Stock Exchange many years ago so that I can meet and learn from Colin Nicholson and a few other traders and chartists.I have met the night stalker,hilarius,marsupial and a few others in the forum and try to understand what made them successful. I have a high opinion on many of them.I have first hand information with different fund managers learning their different style and strategies.In the end I formulate my own and I continue to experiment, even today.I have learned candlestick charting and Elliot Waves from the best persons I know during my time.I have met with Shane Oliver, Caton and a few other top economists in Australia.My dad,all my brothers have been investors in equities from a very young age as we come from a business and financial background.Only in the last few years that I realised the significance of it.
I learn that trading has many dimensions and success come in many forms. There is no monopoly on success, whether, short term, medium or long term.I have traded as a club, in partnership and as a company.I have never regarded my trading as a big success.
In 2003, I have my house mortgage and with the borrowings,I used it as a working capital to trade.It is a business to me today. I do not trade for a living.I cannot call it an investment strictly because, from my understanding if I call it investment I do not meet many of the requirements of an investor in my criteria. I would call myself as mainly a long term trader and investor for the purpose of tax planning.My past experience as a corporate consultant and my existing business in financial advising does help.It is an old business but a new challenge every day.I thought I would share some of my life experience with you because, spider has so unselfishly share his personal experience with us in the past.Many of you would have met me, but if you have not and happen to be in sydney, we can get together to exchange some ideas on something we both enjoy, that is the passion of the stock market.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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maxboost
Member
Username: maxboost
Post Number: 43
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, June 23, 2006 - 07:57 pm: |
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Hi spider,
I've just been having a look at the recent corrections and the 'rubber band effect' that you wrote of. I've put some data into a spread sheet and found that the level at which the rubber band takes effect happens at reasonably consistent percentages. I have only tested the 4 recent corrections so its by no means conclusive but interesting all the same.
I have also run some numbers for when the price is to the down side (a reverse rubber band effect if you like) and found similar consistency. Again not conclusive but interesting.
Thanks for the insightful posts and sharing your knowledge
Cheers
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 2450
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 28, 2006 - 02:42 pm: |
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maxboost,
thank you for taking the time to post that, very interesting.
spider.
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 2451
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 28, 2006 - 02:52 pm: |
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STAYING TOO LONG.
He’s a trader, and he should be earning excellent returns from his trades.
His winning trades run at about the 45% mark. He cuts his losing trades quickly. His entry timing is good, most of the time, and his position sizing is appropriate for his trading pool size.
So what is holding him back?
He came to me for coaching, and like most of us, he has the occasional losing streak, but for him these losing streaks are magnified because his winners are not producing the returns that they should from his well-tried system.
When he came to me for help, he had been trading for a long time, and full time for about four years. He had very successful years but in recent times he was struggling to stay in profit. It did not take many questions from me to find out that our trader had backed himself into an emotional corner. Over time he had slowly increased the pressure on himself and had increased his own earning expectations.
This is a subtle form of traders’ suicide!
As soon as we become consumed by our earning potential, our trading success goes out the window.
His early success is part of the problem. It set him up with a certain set of expectations (1) .
Our trader is no dummy, he has done the psychological work, he knows about the power of the mind to make or break a trader.
Our traders system works very well as long as he lets his winners run. This is a lesson that he learned very early on. But now it seems that his winning edge is actually part of the problem.
Because our trader's thinking has subtly changed over time, he is now letting his winning trades run too long. He is desperate to recoup his losses so he lingers too long, and misses the vital exit signals that his system has been reliably giving him over many years.
He has stopped looking at each trade as a single experience, and now it is "do or die".
Our trader has a few things to work on, but for us this story is about the dangers of staying too long. When your system says it’s over ……….. it’s over. Don’t linger, close the position and move on to the next.
The trade you are in has NOTHING to do with the trades that you have taken before (2).We must view each trade in isolation, and block our need to cover our previous losses.
Spider.
1. One of the worst things that can happen to any trader is that his first trade is a winner.
2. Except for the things that you have learned from that trade.
}
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 2454
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 02, 2006 - 04:30 pm: |
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THE BEST OF LUCK.
Some people would say that luck has nothing to do with trading(1), and they would be wrong.
Some would say that you make your own luck, and they would be right, but that is not really what this article is about.
Luck exists, there is no doubt about it, but like most of the rest of the world we inhabit, it exists mostly between our ears.
If you have been trading for as long as spider has, you will have seen luck, in all its shapes and forms. In any given week, spiders’ luck is evenly distributed.
I close a position because my system tells me to, and the position takes off because some half-wit fund manager decides to buy some because “it looks so cheap”.
On the other hand, spider buys into a position for his TA reasons just before some other half wit with long pockets, decides to buy out the company, and an expected 5% gain over several months turns into a 25% gain over a few days!(2)
You can come out looking like a rooster or a feather duster, but in the end, it really doesn’t matter, it’s just luck. It’s just one of those little roller coaster rides that goes with being a trader.
The important thing is that you don’t let it do your head in. In the same way that winning a few bucks on the lottery, does not make you a genius, being on the right side of a takeover doesn’t either(4). Just enjoy it and move on.
Remember, that at the end of the day, it is your skill and perseverance that will make you a great trader, and that luck will merely give you some interesting stories to tell along the way.
Spider.
1. Have you ever wondered who these “some” people are?
2. spider has had a few of these over the past few years, with one of the best being SPC.
3. Why, anyone who understands the odds, would enter a lottery is beyond me. spider worked for two lottery agents, 'back in the day'. These were great places to work at, despite the owners being serious dipsticks! The people that came in to buy tickets were always friendly and fun to talk with (when the boss would let me). My favorite question was usually, “What would you do with the money if you won?” The answers varied, as you would expect, but quite a few said they would share it with their families. In my time there, we never sold a really big winner, although the shops sold quite a few over the years. It was fun to work there because people who buy lottery tickets are optimists, always looking to a bright future. I would venture to say that the majority of people in the share market are optimists as well.
4. Two days after I first wrote this GAS was the subject of a takeover!
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 542
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, July 02, 2006 - 06:33 pm: |
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http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=9572 9#POST95729
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wanabe1
Member
Username: wanabe1
Post Number: 399
Registered: 11-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 08, 2006 - 10:36 am: |
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Luck is ADZ.
regards
ps. now back to the laundry!
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 2476
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 25, 2006 - 07:57 pm: |
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The Power of the Question
“For, as God says, the treasure is in the question, not in the answer”
N.W. Walsch ‘Conversations with God; Book 2’
Someone once told me that successful people ask better questions.
That instantly made sense to me.
Most people we speak to cannot wait for us to stop speaking, so that they can tell us something.
Occasionally we encounter someone and a conversation ensues.
We have been talking for a while, and we notice that this person has been driving the conversation by constantly asking questions.
Now, in my case, I love to talk (I’m sure that you have noticed), but I am also very interested in what others have to say (usually up to the point where they open their mouth).
So I get to a point in a conversation where I notice that I have been doing most of the talking, and, even though this is fun, I cannot help but wonder how we got to this point.
My conversational partner has found out a great deal about me by simply asking engaging questions, and letting nature take it’s course.
When we were young we were full of questions, and we probably drove everyone crazy with our constant barrage. If we were lucky we were encouraged, and learned that questions led to information that we could act on in order to discover who we are, and why we are here.
If we were unlucky, we were told to shut it and be seen but not heard. Possibly this became the habit of a lifetime.
There is a quote about people ‘living lives of quiet desperation’; that’s no way to live, speak up, make the world answer your questions! Make the universe give up her secrets.
ask better questions.
spider.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1887
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 25, 2006 - 10:31 pm: |
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What would make one think that promoting spider's website with this ploy was not a breach of forum rules?
Would a person seeking a trading coach typically expect to be linked to one from Incredible Charts?
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 2477
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 25, 2006 - 11:26 pm: |
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nice try red.
spider does not seek customers. I don't have the time, but, in the past, I have worked with traders that have asked for my advise.
My site is my site. No advertising, just my stuff.
My support for those that coach still stands. I'm more than a little surprised that this whole coaching thing is an issue.
Nice to know that you read my stuff though.
spider.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1888
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 25, 2006 - 11:56 pm: |
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spider
You are always welcome to post here the words you removed from your home page today.
One does like a coincidence.
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spider
Member
Username: spider
Post Number: 2478
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 26, 2006 - 02:59 pm: |
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I was trying to be discrete, and not make a big deal about my recently launched web site, but seeing as how rederob has chosen to make an issue of it, I might as well say “Yes it is true”.
As with the posts on IC, most of the articles on my web site are about trading, and my experience of trading.
But, unlike the IC forum, there are more posts of a personal nature.
Despite what rederob may say, there isn’t any advertising. Spider does not have a sponsor, and spider does not have any commercial agenda.
As it is within the rules of the forum, I reserve the right to post links to relevant articles, mine and articles written by others. This has always been a feature of the IC forum, and it would be a shame if it were to change.
Let’s make this clear right now.
Spider is in business for himself. I contribute to the IC forum because I enjoy doing so. The majority of the feedback I have received has been positive, so I continue to contribute when it seems relevant.
My web site is a continuation of this theme, it is not designed to make money. At the moment it is entirely funded by me, and it is not there as a way for me to seek business.
I don’t need the work.
I have openly supported the idea of trader coaches, and I will continue to support the idea, as I believe that this is a step forward in the development of trading. Obviously, people need to exercise good judgment in this , as in all areas of trading.
I believe that we have discussed the issue, and that it is time to move on. The bitchyness has died down quite a bit in recent times, let’s keep it that way and stick to the discussion of issues.
People who enjoy the things that I write are welcome to visit my site, those that don’t enjoy my stuff can feel free to ignore it.
It’s your choice.
Spider.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1889
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 26, 2006 - 03:14 pm: |
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spider
Given you have now removed the matters of concern from your home page, I agree with everything you have posted above.
I wish you the best.
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