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     peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2386
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 27, 2007 - 12:41 am: |  
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AWC Overweight Average SP $6.15 Cum Div - Likely M&A activity/victim
BLD Slightly Overweight Average SP $7.65 Cum Div - Likely M&A activity/victim
BSG Overweight Average SP $3.03 Likely M&A activity/victim
HSP Overweight Average SP $4.80 M&A activity - On acquisition trial - predator organic & acquisition growth
JST Slightly Overweight SP $3.65 M&A activity predator & also victim
SAI Balance weight SP $4 Cum Div M&A activity Likely predator & also victim
TAL Overweight Average SP $2 M&A activity likely victim
TWR Overweight Average SP $2 M&A activity likely victim
TSE Very overweight Average SP $8.25 Adjusted Cum Div M&A activity likely predator and also split infrastructure into another listed fund
TTS Overweight Average SP $3.70 Cum Div M&A activity likely predator looking to Europe
TLSCA Underweight Half SP $2 Cum Div
GTP Overweight Average SP $2.65 likely M&A activity merger & acquisition
TIM Underweight Average SP $2.50 Cum Div likely M&A activity merger & acquisition
SFH Underweight Average SP $1.65 Adjusted Cum Div likely M&A activity predator/currently capital management
INL Balance weight Average SP 25c Likely M&A activity Predator & victim
SGL Balance weight Average SP 40c M&AS activity likely victim
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2405
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 01, 2007 - 03:21 am: |
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The above were mostly bought in November last year except TWR and SFH where I had them for a year or more.Today I sold down TAL and TWR, taking profit and 10Ks of HSP which reported today and which went ex dividend today.I set a price of 3% less than yesterday's closing price and they were sold.HSP reported today with a good set of results and I am looking at buying them back immediately if the price is lower than my selling price of $5.90.
I have regularly taking out some of the money and channeling it into residential properties. We have also bought our own office suite at Bella Vista last year.This is a strategy I have adopted as a means of diversification, that in case there is a market down turn, half of my investment wont be affected.This is a long term strategy.When there are opportunities I obtain funds from the properties to fund more equities purchase. Meanwhile I am fully invested in equities besides the properties invested.I also try to have at least a couple of hundred Ks on the stand buy in case there are opportunities to add more.
I like to have a strong growth portfolio and see that TAL and TWR have a lesser role to play in this portfolio.Howere I still maintain a balance weight or slightly underweight with my holding in them.
An error I made is getting into TIM and GTP, ignoring the chart as I thought these 2 may have an immediate reversal.I was thinking like a fund manager and willing to give it an 18 months horizon which I am not prepared to sit out.I see myself selling them out as a capital loss some time without lasting the period that I set out to do originally.Unless there is an immediate turn around due to the government changing its ruling on MIS investments.
If I have not stayed fulled invested in the market I would have missed out a lot on the 10 to 30% gain on some of the shares I have in the last 3 months.It cost me money by not fully in the market. I notice that some are staying out of the market because they think it has gone too high. My brother who is an accountant has been proclaiming in the last few years that the market has topped.I, on the other hand think that the market has some way to go yet, correction like today is part and puzzle of the stock market which we cannot avoid.In a certain way I am not trying to time the market but let it run until the trend changes.If I feel that it is getting topsy, I will take a bit more profit, otherwise I stay fully invested.I know some other people that I read in the other threads prefer to totally stayed out of the market.This is not wrong either if it is their strategy.However they will miss out on the highest return which quite often happened before the market retrace.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2408
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 12:39 pm: |
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Today, I have bought back 10Ks of HSP at $5.78 as I thought it held up pretty well during the retracement and it produced a set of sparkling results which would have cost me more to be out of it.Also I believe the health and retirement sector is going to perform well in years to come.HSP has been performing very well recently and is also on an acquisition trial which will further improve its results.
I have also bought 38Ks of TLSCA at $2.67 as I believe it will do well in the longer run and the ACCC,has eased off a bit from their back.This will bring my holding in TLSCA overweight.My average price has gone up considerably after this which will now average $2.43.
I have kept faith with INL and SGL as I believe their best days are yet to come.Notice that BNB has now become a substantial share holder with an average price around 40c, this is what I call keeping good company.Surely they must have a motive in acquiring a significant holding of SGL.
INL has started production and is forming alliance and on an acquisition trial which will add to their bottom line in the near future.
SGL and INL are high risk investment currently as they are not making a profit yet, but will see them doing that in the not too distant future.Please do your own DD on all these shares, as my strategy is only for myself and does not fit into anyone else.
I have been taking a fair bit from the market and was going to put them into a residential property or alternative investments but at this level the market is looking attractive again, which delay me from switching to some other investment but to get back in.From here,add another 1000 point to the XAO is not out of the question , I do not think attaining 6600 from here by year end is not unachieveable.The bears may call this a BEAR market, but to me from where I look at, it is a BIG bear trap.
From my angle, even if the market performs with a return of 10% is better than the 5% in the bank especially if we are going to hold the asset for the long term. With funds available at 7%, I am putting my sleeping equity into working for me, and with my very low expectation it has not disappointed even if I used an indexed fund alone.
This strategy is not for everyone, so I suggest you check with your financial adviser before you act or adopt any strategy.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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wadda
Member
Username: wadda
Post Number: 436
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 10:15 pm: |
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Hi Peter,
I was stopped out of SGL in last week's little hiccup. In fact, I was pretty much stopped out of everything including CNP, TLS, DJS and MGR...one's that had performed quite well.
Still holding TTS though.
Cheers,
wadda
"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2409
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 07, 2007 - 01:44 am: |
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Hi wadda/tony m,
The market reacted just as I have expected, when it is almost unbearable, it did a reversal.The 2001/2 down turn help me to assess the situation pretty well.I was looking at my clien't margin lending account, with 99.9% of clients with available fund to wade into the market more if they wish to.The last 3 years have build them a fat reserves and by staying in the market fully invested and not trying to time its exit and entry have help them to stay in the market and not missed any of the rises.
I have been cool this year and have not exit at all by staying fully invested except fiddling at the fringes and it has done better for me.I have not been tempted to take profit out of TSE at all and as it stood it has held on well and I expect its price to be in the blue sky soon before long especially when it is going to spin off its infrastructure project and probably listed in the Australian Share market by the end of this financial year.I also expect the second half EBIT to be a lot higher than the first half of the year, as we will see an increase in revenue and also profit from its new acquisition.
Another present surprise is AWC waving a off market by back with a price of about 10% less than the market price, with capital treated as 36c and the rest as franked profit.Hopefully the franked dividend and imputation will add up more than the current SP which will made selling the lot back to AWC will be attractive.
TTS will continue to perform well and with TAH underperforming we will see a lot of money flowing into TTS in the near future. There is also talk of TTS joining PBL in buying some of the assets if they went in together to buy TAH.
Despite residential property falling 2.5%, commercial and industrial activities have increase their activities by at least 20%. We will see companies like, LEI,UGL and TSE continue to do well.There are also signs of MXG and DOW recovering from their recent misfortune.BLD the largest building material company will benefit from these, although residential properties in NSW is still in a slump.MXG and MGR also look good at this level.
Unless there is positive news soon from TIM & GTP, I am afraid these 2 will move sideway for some time, tying up capital.It has not been a smart move on my part.On the other hand, I think TLSCA will do well from now on and I have changed my whole perception on this share.The share actually made over 50% profit for me in a little more than a few months.
I am keen on MFS and PGL, however I won't be able to add on to these 2 unless I sell some of my holding like JST which is due to report soon.
BNB probably buy up a bit more of SGL to be included into BBW or BBI later on.
SFH, in which I have an underweight position has held up quite well because of the buyback.It look like SFH together with JST may provide me with more funds to have another look at MXG/MFS/PGL at this level.
I have been operating a middle term portfolio for my secretary.A quick calculation show up a hundred grand in the black by the 30th of December on liquidated shares alone.The current holding is also performing well and we are looking at least the same amount or more in the second half of the year.
Besides the common shares which she also held, she also has MFS/LNN and GCL in her portfolio which is also showing a profit.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 539
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 07, 2007 - 09:42 am: |
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Peter,
MFS has been trading sub 5.00 for a couple of days. I thought i would buy at least my entitlement offer, which is at 5.10, on market for less. Seems like a it might go above that today.
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2410
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 07, 2007 - 12:44 pm: |
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Hi smallworld,
Many think on the same wave length as you on MFS. It is there already, at least my secretary has something to smile about.Now I have to work out whether it is value to buy at this level.
JST has again over performed and under promised, and as expected come in with a good report.dug has been concern that this one would hurt me, whereas I am of the opinion this one will reach for the blue sky. It is good having been able to sell near the top and coming to pick it up 10% lower to see it now going over 15% again.It has increase its dividends pay out on top of a 10% off market buyback which can only add value to the existing shareholders.I am looking at JST adding another $ to its SP.
AWC has also been doing well after its own announcement of an off market buyback.On top of this RIO and BHP eyeing this one has not gone away.
PPT has increase its shareholding on HSP from 7.65 to 8.66%. PPT is a value investor and it only confirm that I haven't paid too much for HSP.The results of HSP looks good too.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2310
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 08, 2007 - 05:01 pm: |
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