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     hilarius
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Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2148
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 11:57 am: |  
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Good Afternoon
Today I more than doubled my CFD position in WAN
Two reasons :-
(1) Possible strong bounce off 10 week EMA (50 Day EMA)
(2) Mother Superior's ruling ... only buy stocks with names beginning with "B" and "W"
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3411
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Friday, December 28, 2007 - 08:10 am: |
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Sadly there is hostility overseas and in this Forum
In both cases the reasons appear to be unfathomable
"Forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us"
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3420
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 06:35 am: |
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Good Morning
On the evidence of the last week of December the Quartile Analysis of the "Top 20" stocks has been a dismal failure
Quartiles 1,2 and 3 behaved in the opposite direction to that which was hoped
Their cumulative price changes over the 3 week period reversed the findings of the first week by itself, and the cumulative changes of the first 2 weeks
Only Quartile 4 behaved as hoped over the 3 week period, by under performing the other 3
I trust that everyone understands these comments. If not please let me know
The project aims to classify the 20 stocks in Quartiles in which Quartile 1 is intended to give the best price performance (best increases or lowest decreases) and each succeeding Quartile is intended to give descending order of price performance
It has not worked out that way and so the advice given throughout to do your own due diligence has proved to be sound
At this stage I can make no claim that the system is worth following
However, I will continue to monitor the longer term performance of the Quartiles to see if any benefit can be found that is not yet apparent
One clear problem is that the faster a share falls in price the better its value appears in relation to an unchanged future EPS growth forecast
This can either be a very good thing for a stock that is destined to recover in price, or a very bad thing if the future of the stock is deteriorating in a manner not yet reflected in analyst forecasts
In other words the apparent value increase can be real or false
The Quartile system currently promotes stocks that are doing badly in price terms and demotes those doing well ... because the value component in the Quartile ranking is increasing
So for example SUN would be promoted in a new ranking, but its chart currently looks less than promising
The system is faced with the dilemma of whether to promote a stock where sentiment has deteriorated so as to produce better value
Should it move to a higher quartile on value grounds even though there has been no discerned change for the better in its earnings outlook?
Does the price fall foretell an earnings downgrade, or is it merely a question of the stock being currently out of favour?
It seems to me the system needs upgrading to include the technical analysis outlook ... though this can often be highly subjective
One defect of technical analysis seems to be that different people reading a chart can come to different conclusions, so I ask with considerable interest do people think the outlook for SUN is positive or negative?
Answers which consider both FA and TA issues would be interesting, but TA comments alone would be fine too
If the outlook for SUN is thought to be negative is it likely to be more or less negative than 75% of the top 20 stocks included in the chart below?
For the present I am deeming the Quartile Analysis to be a failure without a technical analysis component, and I am not sure that a TA aspect will save it
I hope to find time to review the charts of each stock from a TA point of view and to show the charts in this thread.
Anyone brave enough to attempt a ranking of the stocks from 1 to 20 in descending order of expected price change would be making a most useful contribution to this discussion, especially if the grounds are disclosed
The grounds currently used by the system are a mixture of positive forecast EPS growth and value in the form of lowest price in relation to future forecast earnings
As indicated above low price for undisclosed hidden reasons could be a serious weakness in the current system
On the other hand a low price indicating under valuation could be a blessing
Telling the difference between a justified and an unjustified low price seems to be an art rather than a science, where forecast future earnings are favourable
Who has the best crystal ball in such cases?
Should FA be scrapped or can it help, when a price is falling for no apparent reason?
What can the FA experts tell us about SUN which has been getting cheaper?
Is it a buy, a hold, or a sell?
To my way of thinking anything that is not a buy should never be held
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
(Message edited by Hilarius on December 30, 2007)
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 104
Registered: 12-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 10:22 am: |
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On a quick Weinstein check, I came up with the following:
Stage 2: BHP, CSL, RIO, WOW, WPL, WBC, WDC, CBA, WES
Stage 3: QBE, BXB, FGL, SGP
Stage 3 heading into Stage 4: SUN, NAB, SGB, AMP, ANZ, MQG
Stage 3 heading back to Stage 2: TLS
This is only my interpretation, so please DYOR. From the ASX20, I hold BHP and CSL.
Sway
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3424
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 10:29 am: |
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5 ... 10 ... or 20 STOCKS ... HILARIUS MAY NEED TO APOLOGISE
Looking at the first two completed weeks of the Quartile Project the following performances are noted :-
BUY AND HOLD WITH NO PROTECTIVE STOPS
5 Stocks ... 96.0 %
10 Stocks ... 96.7 %
20 Stocks ... 95.8 %
Conclusion:- 10 Stocks are better than 5 or 20 in this instance, which may be an isolated case
BUY AND HOLD WITH STOPS AT MAXIMUM 5% LOSS
5 Stocks ... 97.2 %
10 Stocks ... 97.3 %
20 Stocks ... 97.8 %
Conclusion :- 10 are better than 5, and 20 are better than 10, in this instance which may be an isolated case
In this short time frame it appears that I am wrong and Rudy and Ody are right about larger portfolios
The only small consolation is that the stocks which I held in real life at the close of December trading performed better over the same period as above (though some were actually held for a shorter period) :-
Whole period average for equal amount in each stock With No Stops 97.9 %
Whole period average for equal amount in each stock With Stops .. 98.6 %
This was mainly due to buying and/or holding CSL, TLS, WOW & WPL along with others which performed more negatively
As my valuation in real life exceeded cost it is evident that the actual weightings favoured one or two of the more successful stocks such as CSL and WPL ... along with profit taken separately on CNP and DJS
Since none of us is here to boast, there is no need for me to quote the entire real life gain. I mention it to demonstrate that equally weighted selections do not always provide the best outcome
Only time will tell whether the two week results for the Quartiles are a statistical aberration or indeed a clear indication that Rudy and Ody were right all along about larger portfolios being better than smaller
All of us need to recognise that individual risk profiles and trading styles differ
Many of my own remarks about Quartiles and Portfolio Size are directed to the very long term, and so their validity make take more time to prove or disprove
Different stocks may also need to be added to the study
In the meantime I am polishing up my apology speech and gathering the ingredients for a humble pie
In general the advice provided by Ody and Rudy, especially to market newcomers, is well thought out, and deserves the most careful study
My only wish is that Ody would employ fewer words and more charts
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3425
Registered: 04-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 10:49 am: |
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STOCKS IN QUARTILES ... 2 WEEK PERFORMANCES FROM NUMBER 1 TO 20 AS ORIGINALLY RANKED
WITH AN AVERAGE INSERTED CENTRALLY AT DATA POINT 11
Am I kidding myself or is there a very slight downtrend, from left to right, in the red median ?
More time should determine the outcome
After another week or two the old and new medians can be compared
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3427
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 10:56 am: |
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Sway
Thanks for the Weinstein Analysis ... I will do my own for comparison and advise
It will be interesting to plot price performance of the Weinstein groups from here on
Also I haven't forgotten about the Scan stocks ...
Will be reporting on those following Yum Cha with the grandkids
Many Thanks
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3429
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 31, 2007 - 07:01 am: |
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Good Morning Sway
Family activities extended beyond Sunday Yum Cha into Sunday evening
As a result I am late posting my review of the impact of adding Weinstein Stages to the Quartiles for Top 20 stocks
My PRELIMINARY Weinstein Stages, offered for discussion and correction are :-
Stage 1 TLS
Stage 2 BHP RIO CSL WBC ANZ WOW CBA QBE FGL WPL WES
Stage 3 MQG NAB SGB WDC AMP BXB SGP
Stage 4 SUN
To some extent the Weinstein Stages IF CORRECT help to answer the question whether a lower price represents increasing value or not.
While the addition of Weinstein Stages adds significant price improvement to Quartiles 1 and 3 at the expense of Quartile 4, the performance of Quartiles 1, 2 and 3 continues to be the opposite of that which was desired
An apology to Ody and Rudy on the portfolio size question continues to be indicated, unless the system results change for the better in the weeks ahead
In one area though the Quartile system has proved to be a marked success. If one restricts the analysis to the Top 20 stocks ... Quartile 4 stocks are to be avoided
This means increasing portfolio size from 15 to 20 is definitely a negative step according to the results so far, where selection is confined to the Top 20
This is a real success for the Quartile system, but is countered by the fact that adding stocks from 5 to 10, or 10 to 15 is on current indications a sound move in the very limited 2 week study. Clearly these finding mean very little after such a short period. The aim of the exercise was, and remains, to determine from Quartiles which stocks perform best, or deteriorate least, in a given group)
Even in a falling market adding stocks seems to work as the fall in price for Quartile 3 is less than for Quartile 2, and the fall for Quartile 2 is less than for Quartile 1
Within the 2 weeks there has been a swing down and up, and
since the analysis covers only 2 weeks the results can not be regarded as conclusive
I will await agreement on or correction of the Weinstein Stages from various contributors before stating the new Quartile constituents, as the Quartile stocks could change while the Weinstein Stages are under review
In the meantime the price performance of the 20 stocks using various approaches is expressed as a smoothed median of their status as a percentage of their original cost in the three lines in the chart below
The stocks comprising each line are arranged in different sequences according to whether the Weinstein ingredient is used or not, from the highest ranking stock on the left to the lowest ranking on the right
Quartile values should descend from left to right, if low portfolio size is better than larger, but this is not yet the case, so the potential for an apology to Rudy and Ody remains alive
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3432
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 31, 2007 - 08:26 am: |
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SCAN STOCKS ... WEINSTEIN STAGES
Good Morning
Here are my preliminary stages for the scan stocks :-
Stage 2 ORL SRL STS WWA NCM IPL DOM FLT DJS STO
Stage 3 AWE ERA
If you or others would like to comment on their validity I will prepare Quartile Analysis and begin measuring their price performance
My preliminary ranking based on future earnings growth & earnings yield, and Weinstein stages is :-
ORL AWE SRL STS ERA WWA NCM IPL DOM FLT DJS STO
I will locate another 8 stocks with lower earnings upgrades than the above to make up a group of 20
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3434
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 31, 2007 - 06:56 pm: |
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THE FA ALONE QUARTILES ARE SO FAR NOT SUPPORTING SMALLER PORTFOLIOS
HOWEVER WHEN WEINSTEIN STAGES AND GMMA EVALUATIONS ARE ADDED THE COMBINATION OF FA + TA GIVES THE EXPECTED QUARTILE PERFORMANCE
The apology which otherwise might have been offered to Rudy and Ody for their support of larger portfolios now seems less likely
In the admittedly short period of this study it appears that as stocks are increased from 5 to 10, or 10 to 15, or 15 to 20 the result is that performance deteriorates
The additional Weinstein criteria and GMMA assessments were completed using Incredible Charts stock charts before lunch-time today
The results of the additional criteria did not become apparent until approximately an hour ago
Given the potential for people to claim that the new criteria were applied in such a way as to favour a smaller portfolio outcome, I can only say that the Weinstein Stages and GMMA conclusions are entirely open for discussion and review
I will be willing to disclose the scores for both the new TA criteria arrived at before lunch today
If a clear case can be made for the scores to be varied I will change them and re-chart the outcome, so that the views of others are compared to mine
I can hardly be more open than this, but anyone wishing to challenge my methodology is welcome to do so
I welcome well considered dissent as much as approval, contrary to what others have said
Furthermore it is entirely possibly that the new criteria will not stand the test of time, and if that is true my thoughts on portfolio size will be disproved by the market
I remain completely open to the possibility of success or failure in this project
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 739
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 12:05 pm: |
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No one has been here for a while
I might make it a place for contrarian opinions
So everybody is Our Daily Bread is universal is seeing how bad it is, how much worse it can become.
My little take is that it is now 1 day or 2 days away for a substantive bounce, probably 500 points or more
1. My internals of the market has finally shown a reading of 29, it showed in Aug a reading of 30. It has fallen very steep in the last 2 to 3 days.
2. Everybody now is thinking the same, all in agreement - Margin call is forcing people to sell, sell, sell
Normally I dont use fundemental as a reason at all. But look at the valuation now. there is a stock I bought, RAT - it price to earnings is 1.85, dividends is 11.38 and price to assets is 0.44. It put out a statement in Dec that less than 2% of its debts is maturing over the next 12 month and averaging 8.2 years, 99% of their properties are occupied with lease term of 6.1 years on average. Every body is so frightened... thinking it is another CNP. Now Is it?
Is it worth the risk? down side risk is probably 200 points on XJO and upside about 650. It is worth it for me.
I've been wrong awhile back, but fortunately, it didn't cost anything because the system didnt have any signals.
I'm buying just following my system, and not listening to the fear talks about the place. It takes courage.
Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 3097
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - 12:42 pm: |
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