Amazing Statistics ...

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Amazing Statistics ...

«« Previous Next »»

Thread Start New Thread
Last Poster Posts Pages Last Post

Author

Message

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2526
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 15, 2007 - 12:24 am:

How can we help each other to benefit from the insights?

http://www.ted.com:80/index.php/talks/view/id/92

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2527
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 15, 2007 - 12:34 am:

By the way Msparks and I are indebted to Rederob who originally drew attention to this amazing material

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 2763
Registered: 03-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, July 15, 2007 - 01:37 am:

Roger,

There are several issues, one has to consider in identifying what shares are suitable for one's portfolio.
Understanding the risk profile is utmost important as it indicates the capacity to tolerate variation of investment returns.Defensive shares with less risk tend to produce lower returns over the long term, but with less variability in their returns.
Historical evidence shows that diversification of the portfolio will reduce risk in the long term and enhance investment returns.
In a rising market, a growth fund manager always out perform a value fund manager, likewise in a falling market a value fund manager does better than a growth fund manager.
Invest for the long term with regular review.
Identify objective whether income is the main issue or capital growth.
Is dividend imputation important for the investor?
Is liquidity of the stock an issue?
What is the time frame?
The structure of the investment vehicle, whether an individual, partnership,company, family trust or a self managed super fund.
If it is a self managed super fund, is it in accumulation or distribution phase as the tax consequences are different.

For a trader, I think the issue which is most important is to identify good trending shares which I think ody has done rather well.
Currently I have identify the sector which is most likely to do well under the current enviroment,are energy and resource.Iron ore miners being in a more structure market is less volatile than other metals.Other metals with the exception of nickel are in great demand and will be for some time yet.The price of nickel is volatile at the moment, however once the price has stabilised the nickel miners will do well.Many of the miners have gone up sharply in price recently,the trick is to catch one that has not been fully value and has great potential.Eblode has selected MGX and TTY which had done very well in the last 2 months,almost 50c increase and likely to continue on.I like to find an up trending share which has retraced due to some teething problem and had sentiment went against it and thus the share price sold down sharply eg. PEM, share price dropped due to a mishap in its Broken Hill mine and operation had been suspended, now that operation has recommence, the SP is recovering.MCR's sharp dropped in its share price due to the nickel price retracement.Once the PON has stabilised,MCR's SP will recover due to its increased production in the near future.AGM's SP has retrace due to a delay in the start up operation.However, management has clarified that production will commence in the 1st quarter of 2008. It is anticipated the SP of AGM will recover in the very near future.It's SP has in fact bounce off a 40% low from its ATH SP before the annual general meeting.There may be other gems, one just has to find them.The SP of TSE,TTS and HSP had retraced quite a bit,however with the anticipated good results coming out in the reporting season,it is likely their SP will recovered.I do not hold any SGL, BOL or SAI as I do not think their potential is as good as the resource or energy sector. I have to watch SGL closely because it is likely to be rerated in the very near future.I wish I have got on to the resource and energy sector earlier and also stayed with them.
I only traded a few metal shares and amongst them MMX and FMQ OST which if I have held to them a bit longer would have done me the world of good.

My warmest regards,

Peter

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.