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     hilarius
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Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3264
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Thursday, December 06, 2007 - 08:35 am: |  
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A NEW RESEARCH PROJECT
Please name 5 stocks you think may double in value by New Year's Eve 2010
Each stock must have an earnings history of at least 3 years
The starting price will be the last close in 2007
Please give reasons for your selections
Progress comments will be helpful
No changes will be allowed
Entries close Dec 31
Happy New Year
Hilarius
PS Dividends will not be tracked by me, but you may post a dividend schedule for consideration in the final result
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3405
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Thursday, December 27, 2007 - 04:47 pm: |
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To assist in identifying stocks with above average potential I am dividing various key groups of stocks into quartiles
These are based on (1) High to Low EPS Growth Rate and (2) Low to High PE Ratios
The methodology aims to group into the highest quartile, Quartile 1 those with the best (highest) EPS growth rate in combination with the best (lowest) PE Ratio ... with both factors playing a role in the final ranking
Since two separate factors are being considered the way they interact with each other makes for an interesting project, but one that has yet to be fully tested
The aim is to discover stocks which rise most in a rising market and fall least in a falling market
The method may or may not lead validly in that direction. Time will tell.
Progress to date is encouraging with quartiles 2 to 4 behaving in descending order as expected. Quartile 1 is not in front due to the volatile behaviour of BHP and RIO
My hope is that they will assert their strength, but if they fail to assert themselves in terms of market price rises they will be relegated to a lower Quartile
New Quartiles for December will be issued after tomorrow's close. The Dec 10 mid month and new month end quartiles will also be reported in the foreseeable future.
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3418
Registered: 04-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 29, 2007 - 11:44 pm: |
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TO THOSE WHO ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT AMERICA
(1) Have you noted that the price of WDC is higher at the end of December than at the end of November ?
(2) Do you view WDC as being in Weinstein Stage 3 ?
(3) Could not the same be said of the chart at the end of May 2006 ?
(4) Are you now expecting WDC to remain in Stage 3 or sink into Stage 4 ?
(5) Do you rule out an increase in value by WDC after the current sideways moves ?
(6) Why was WDC stronger than some other Top 20 stocks in December ?
(7) Is WDC immune from the events now emerging in the USA or is a price fall inevitable ?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 103
Registered: 12-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 09:47 am: |
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Hilarius
I'm a bit on the bullish side regarding WDC, but only mildly. My Weinstein chart below shows the uptrend still in place within the 2SD channel. I can't see significant strength relative to the XAO but at least it has done just as well since about mid July. I think there is a reasonable chance that it will continue to trend up in its own (slowish) way, but not really a strong WS Stage 2 move. The shakeout that happened on 18th Dec looks a bit suspicious, and probably caved in quite a few stop losses. Was that something to do with options rolling over? There has been quite strong buying since (considering xmas slowdown) and the TMF is pretty encouraging.
There's my 2c worth
Good luck
Sway
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3428
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 11:01 am: |
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Sway
I am quite puzzled by WDC given the supposed gravity of property issues and resulting potential for lower spending in the USA
If their financial strength remains intact no doubt they can profit from the misfortunes of others
Any thoughts on their debt levels?
I will try to research them
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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sway
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Username: sway
Post Number: 105
Registered: 12-2005
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| | Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 11:17 am: |
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H
I don't spend much time on the FA side. It looks like there are plenty of institutions (who know more than me about the future of WDC) who have decided that the trend is still up. The SP tells all.
Sway
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3438
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 09:02 am: |
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Sway
Can you help me with a TA question please?
I can't decide whether BKW is in Weinstein Stage 2 or Weinstein Stage 3
How would you (and any others interested) view it?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 108
Registered: 12-2005
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| | Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 04:39 pm: |
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I would call BKW a WS Stage 3 based on the declining RS relative to the XAO. It's a bit hard to pick but to me it looks like Stage 2 ended around Nov 2005 and it has waffled around in Stage 3 ever since.
Sway
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3441
Registered: 04-2004
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| | Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 04:49 pm: |
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Sway
I am inclined to agree
Three attempts have failed to break through the all time highs
Somewhat indecisively I had classified it as a 2.5 (half way between a 2 and 3), but following your message I believe I should revise that to a clear Stage 3
Unless those highs are comprehensively exceeded it does not seem like a genuine 2 right now
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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coyotte
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Username: coyotte
Post Number: 402
Registered: 12-2002
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 10:44 pm: |
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Ref: BKW
from a basic McLaren view -- if I have this wrong PLEASE state why
Basics :
McLaren starts with 3 foundation trends of which 2 are applicable here .
1: A Normal Trend where the Highs are not being breached by a Low.
2: A Creeping Trend where the Highs are being taken out by the Lows .
A Creeping Trend will be resolved by a breakout to the UP or Down Side.
The break will occur with a previous Low not being taken out out by a High or a Low above a previous High .
A Major High followed by 3 lower Highs is a Major Warning .
So the present situation would imply that the Low at around 13.40 MUST be taken out by the next High.
Note up to this point from the all time HIGHS it has gone into a Creeping Trend
Probably missing something here -- mainly the 13.00 Low to the 13.10 High -- but that's it basically .
A boring and prosperous 2008 to one and all
Coyotte
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3442
Registered: 04-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 02, 2008 - 01:39 am: |
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Coyotte
Certainly the Daily Chart raises some questions in the short term
Another IC friend has prompted me to take a longer term view, and as a result I produced the Weekly Chart below
The trend on this longer view appears intact, with a useful looking ascending triangle?
My friend suggests the key question now is the level of new building activity
For Stage 2 to remain intact a new higher high would certainly be required at some point, followed by a higher low, etc, etc
So now my conclusion is Stage 3 from a short term perspective, with a clear risk of a breakdown into Stage 4, but an optimistic longer term Stage 2 prospect if the all time highs are taken out
I probably need to look at two separate options when ranking BKW ... namely Stage 2 long term and Stage 3 short term
In any event on a combination of FA + TA it is currently at the top of Quartile 4 in a group of 20 stocks being studied, so on earnings yield prospects and other grounds it is not looking all that inspiring, and 15 stocks are ranked ahead
With the multiple moving averages currently converging the next move up or down by BKW after consolidation should be well worth watching
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 872
Registered: 09-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 04, 2008 - 09:15 am: |
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Hello Hilarius
Thanks for kind offer to join this useful endeavour ~ particularly if the starting price for stocks selected is December 31 2007 :
hilarius wrote on Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 10:40 am:THREE YEAR RESEARCH PROJECT
The entry date has been extended to January 31
Please name 5 stocks you think may double by New Year's Eve 2010
The starting price for stocks selected is December 31 2007
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/427230/1295403.html
Hilarius
I'm not so much interested in a 'research project' (sounds a bit too theoretical) but more to test my metal in stockpicking (using stocks I currently own). Three years may be too long for some of the stock/s chosen: they may be taken over, gold may not be still in bull run, but I expect the commodity super cycle still to be occurring in three years, even if America is in full blown recession by then. I'm tempted to update the picks on a quarterly basis - more often seems superfluous. Each of the stocks chosen is in the material sector (one that I expect to outperform over this time period) & because we are only looking for growth (not dividends) they suit the application well IMO. The charts show all stocks are in long term uptrend and have consolidated recently ~ so expecting an explosive moove soon (hopefully to the upside).
The stocks I have chosen are:
LGL - Impressed with unheadged gold mines - well positioned to benefit from gold upside
MMX - Iron ore producer with pipeline of projects to boot
OXR - Impressive pipeline of projects in various commodities
CBH - Impressive pipeline of projects in various commodities
IGO - Impressive pipeline of projects in various commodities
anyone else going to climb on board?
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3460
Registered: 04-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:20 am: | | |
