Archive through March 03, 2008

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hilarius

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Post Number: 3584
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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 08:21 am:

Dean

I am disappointed that you are disappointed

Those who live with a strong belief in themselves must expect the occasional friendly little dig in the ribs

I am sure Friars Ody and Rudy are experienced in handling their intellectual juniors with appropriate disdain

Hilarius (Senior Lecturer in Humility 101)

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 08:24 am:

Rudy

I understand you are hoping for good buying opportunities

Wouldn't a drop to the bottom of the channel be just what the doctor ordered?

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

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Post Number: 3586
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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 08:28 am:

Dean

Why would Friday night have worried me?

I was asleep at the time and hold miniscule quantities of gold, iron ore and uranium stored with the bottles of red

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

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Post Number: 3587
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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 08:40 am:

Friar Eugenio

May I commend a study of the Gospels in which you will discover regular use of sarcasm by the one who ended on the Cross and who was a thorn in the side of his enemies

The difference here is that Ody and Rudy are my friends, even if I am not seen by them as theirs

I have no need for sarcasm, merely a gentle and occasional reminder that they are not alone and friendless in the intellectual universe

My love for them is as unbounded as their respect for each other

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

ody

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Post Number: 2209
Registered: 10-2006

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 08:43 am:

HALRIUS: TWO (CONTRADICTORY) POSTS

I invite your to consider the following email (at the end of this message) which you posted a few days ago with the one you posted at 8:15 this morning. If you cannot see the contradictions between the two, I think you have a serious problem indeed. I am certain that others will see them and that they will draw their own conclusions. I only add that your condescension towards the supposed ignorance or slackness on the part of your fellow posters as expressed this morning is utterly mistaken and belied by the facts. Your comments on the superiority of materials and resources, for example, merely echoed what has been seen for years, as is also true of the folly of the Americans going into Iraq and not concentrating on Afghanistan. Even BEFORE the Iraqi war started it was already often argued that Rumsfeld did not make sufficient resources available: you are (were) merely regurgitating what was widely believed and known.

Of course, that does not mean that these facts are not worth bearing in mind, and mentioning, when one can demonstrate their consequences, several of which are only fully emerging now. Much comment today is in the nature of analysing how what it was feared the Americans were getting wrong in years past has indeed proved wrong: this does NOT show that those who engage in such analysis are wasting time or did not see the danger years ago: they are illuminating the connection between cause and effect. It is one thing to suspect that something will go wrong, and another to produce the evidence that it did, and WHY. That is something that helps us understand the presence, which is of general use.

You claim for yourself all sorts of unique wisdom and prophetic ability which you have not in fact demonstrated, and you may have noticed that people do not pay much attention to your claims. For one thing they can think for themselves, and for another, as in these two most recent posts, you contradict yourself too often.

What do you think you'll achieve by referring to Rudy and me as "love birds"? It's merely offensive, and people will be quite able to see we think for ourselves, even if we often agree. I think you will just have to face the fact that people take our posts more seriously than your own, and ask yourself why that might be so.

I suggest it would be a good thing if you compare these two posts and consider how they might come across to others. Your last post, at least, is of no use to anyone, and I fear very few people on this post will take it at all seriously: it will merely mean that yet more people ignore your posts or won't react to them. Believe you my friend: I have your interests at heart: you had been doing well of late by either not posting much or speaking sense when you did, but just one post like this undoes a great deal of the potential goodwill you had been building up. Here is your previous post, which is such a contrast with this mornings. It is hard to believe they were written by the same persons:
--------------------------------------------------------------

Ody has been right all along, if not always concise

Rudy and Dean have provided charts and comments of great clarity

Well Done

Colin Twiggs has been consistently right with charts of great clarity and succinct and accurate comments in his Diary

When you all ring the bottom bell together I will be most interested

Hilarius
----------------------------------------------------------

I have not commented on your stuff for a long time, which I think has been the right thing to do, but I am not prepared to put up with such rubbish as you put this morning. I hope that just one reply will suffice, and if it produces more rave and rant from you I intend to ignore that. This is just a helpful attempt to make you see the bizarreness of your erratic posting, but I am not going to continue to waste time on you.

deanrosario

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Post Number: 1358
Registered: 11-2002

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 08:53 am:

Wow - Rudy your post #1170 clearly, objectively and rationally demonstrates just how ugly things could get if the FA and TA bears are aligned.

Perhaps, the midpoint of the channel you have drawn is the most realistic target within the next 12-24 months.

However, if the Chinese & Indian economies start to stutter ... I reckon we'll all be happy for the support provided by the bottom of that channel!

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

eblode

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Post Number: 704
Registered: 11-2002

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 09:06 am:

Gentlemen & Cat Lady,
As I await the 10am opening of the market which will be a series of blood letting throughout the day, I remember previous debacles on the market, but in the end all came out well. Without a doubt the greatest physical fear I experienced was the Pyramid collapse. I had $168,000 in a 30 day deposit. My wife mentioned that a friend of hers was told by her husband who knew a guy who was a friend of someone in a brokers office that Pyramid was on shaky ground. Nonsense I said. Premier John Cain just issued a proclamation that they have investigated this Building Society and all is well. My wife pleaded with me to take the money out. Ok, Ok lay off I said. I'll do it but I hate to lose that 18% interest they are paying. So I gave notice that in 30 days I would be withdrawing my money.
So where was I going to invest it?? I figured bank bills are safe enough. So the day came to withdraw the money. They gave me a cheque for $168,000 and asked me to whom should the cheque be made out to. Normally I would of said to my company but this time I said "Make it out to the National Bank" as I intended to give them this check in exchange for a bank bill. And so I did. The following morning I picked up The Age with the headlines PYRAMID COLLAPSES. My mouth went dry as sand. My knees literally turned to rubber. I stared at the headlines in disbelief.
When I finally composed myself I rushed to the phone and called the National Bank. MY CHEQUE HAD CLEARED!!! Because Pyramid office in Geelong, Vic. had the same bank my cheque was cleared the same day. Had I made a cheque out to my own company or to another bank the funds would have been stopped. How lucky can one be. But for a moment that I shall always remember in a panic nothing can top that. Not even what's going to happen today.

Eugenio

hilarius

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 09:12 am:

Ody

Thanks for your post which was mercifully free of condescension

I shall take it to heart

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

stocky

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Post Number: 206
Registered: 10-2003

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 09:18 am:

Ody i think what Hilarious is trying to say is that (to quote) you are (were) merely regurgitating what Hilarious has been saying for a long time.

I think Hilarious is just looking for a bit of recognition for the work/studies he has done to come up with the directions he thought the market would take in which he has largely been correct.

Yourself and Rudy go along all day and "Pat each other on the back" on the analysis you produce and rightly so, it is useful for myself and many others. But if you would listen to Hilarious you may come to your current conclusions sooner and some form of recognition would be due to Hilarious.

Rudy in your post #1167 you asked who would have guessed that it would cost so much and turn the US into an economic basket case well, the answer is Hilarious.

ody

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Post Number: 2210
Registered: 10-2006

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 09:44 am:

STOCKY: Hilarius' supposed wisdom

I'd have to say that I have never yet read anything by Hilarius that was not already long since in the public domain by way of either knowledge or insight. The idea that the US would turn into a basket case as a result of mistaken financial policies and the war in Iraq has literally been around for years, and EVERY statement I have read from Hilarius on such matters I was long since familiar with.

They are the "vast picture" that any well-informed reader works with. The difficulty is to single out the factors that will operate in a particular way at a particular time. This is exactly what Rudy and I, in our different ways, do: we apply what is known to the market situation in hand, at particular times, and using a mixture of T/A and F/A to assess what is likely to happen in the relatively near to short term. The record here on this thread can be used to prove that we have generally got our timing and the nature of our forecasts right, while Hilarius has covered himself with platitudes and generalities, as well as numerous statements that were either incomprehensible or self-contradictory.

To suggest that Rudy has in any sense derived anything of value from Hilarius is wide of the mark. If you yourself think that Hilarius has let us know anything new happening in the world I suggest you read more newspapers, on-line bulletins, news services, etc. You will find that Hilarius is regularly not at all well informed, and that his "news" is usually months or years old.

His posts have shown persistently, for example, that he does not understand the subprime/credit/liquidity crisis, which shows from his repeated refusal to see the real harm of the process and to think we can console ourselves with the supposed fact that money that has left some hands has ended up in others and therefore merely been preserved. He does not, for example, seem to realise that the US is actually PRINTING money to maintain the fiction that no money has been lost, through devaluation of assets and the dollar.

Rudy and I both do read Hilarius and would listen to him if he says something useful. We are both fast learners - the trouble is that Hilarius almost never provides something that we haven't already long since known from other sources or thought about for ourselves. In essence, when not offensive, I see his posts as largely vacant in meaning, and filled with platitudes and grandstanding.

For a long time we had peace from him. What we have now seen is typical: first he admits that Rudy, Dean, Colin, others and I have seen things sharply for what they were, and predicted matters correctly. So he praises us. Then, he appears to get jealous (I can infer no other explanation) because he has not posted these matters himself, and accuses us of merely regurgitating what he in his wisdom has long since seen and said. He is plainly wrong about these matters, and refuses to accept his own limitations.

colin_twiggs

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Post Number: 3120
Registered: 09-2002

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 10:03 am:

Hilarius,

I too was surprised by the lack of humility in your earlier post. If you bear any resentment towards Ody or Rudy, I suggest that you communicate with them privately in an attempt to resolve this.

This is one of the more interesting threads to read on the forum -- let's stay on topic.

Regards,
Colin

ody

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Post Number: 2211
Registered: 10-2006

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 10:04 am:

BACK TO THE MARKET

This is what REALLY interests us and is worth spending time on. Here are the current indices (with a 20-minute delay) showing our bloodbath, although the sectors vary in performance. And the results will no doubt change during the day:

http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/mkt/index.ac

Note that materials, for example, are not SPARED. Their performance is not the worst, but in a clearly negative market they are likely to be dragged down with other sectors, even if not to the worst extent. So I am the more disinclined to believe in XAO 6000.

Those who have been buying "cheap" shares will be able to see how in a bear market they may turn yet cheaper.

stocky

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Post Number: 207
Registered: 10-2003

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Monday, March 03, 2008 - 10:11 am:

Sway,

Was just reading on Iress Mkt Talk. Applicable for today. Seems div's can have quite an impact.

Index has taken a big hit from ex-divs, worth more than 12 index points. This won't be such a factor tomorrow.

rdumas

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Post Number: 1171
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 1