Archive through March 04, 2008

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captain_chaza

Member

Post Number: 3045
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 01:59 pm:

Permission to come onboard is requested to give aid to a fellow sailor in distress
namely Sea-Cadet Hilarius

Salute and Gods' speed

PS: Sea-Cadet Hilarius
I hope you are diverting the attention from GOLD @ $980 (ATH) as you corner the Gold market and NCM in particular

PPS ODY
I am only joking of course! LOL!

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 3594
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 02:30 pm:

Good Heavens !!

The place is swarming with courageous Sea Captains

No doubt stepping where angels fear to tread

Bon Voyages

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

ody

Member

Post Number: 2212
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 2


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 03:25 pm:

Starboard tack: Hilarius's posts

Good post. What you have discovered is this: typically (this is by no means the first time), and completely out of the blue, Hilarius suddenly writes a wild post attacking Rudy and me. It is full of assertions, wounded pride, etc. - you and other readers have noted the relevant aspects yourself.

Part of the purpose of Hilarius's sudden eruptions is probably to provoke us - to "needle" us, as you say. If, indeed, you point out a few home truths to him, by way of reaction to his amazing statements, he then engages in the well-known policy of "victim politics". He presents himself as "gently chiding" his imagined opponents, and accuses them of engaging in cruel personal attacks. Even though the language used suggests in fact the reverse. He presents himself as though HE is the victim, even though these episodes always start with an arbitrary, uncalled for attack by him on Rudy or me, or both.

It is a strategy I don't intend to fall for any more, but I do want to draw attention to one major point which Hilarius has repeatedly made, and on which he stakes much of his credibility. This is his assertion that, in comparison with him, Rudy and I sold out "late" on 14 December, and that he did much better. It is part of his myth that he always precedes others, in his brilliance, who then belatedly follow him.

Thus we find him saying in one of his comparatively recent posts:

------------------------------------------------------------
"The signal for me to exit was the sluggishness of the market in November [2007; the market peaked on 1 November]. For myself I felt from the behaviour of stocks held that it had reached a high, and sold the lot in the confident expectation that the overbought market signals and the spreading subprime reactions would lead to lower prices."
-------------------------------------------------------------

Contrast this with what he said on 16 October. He then said he was 100% in cash. On 30th October: "I await the warning signs with trepidation as I sit nervously on my cash wondering what to do." On 5 November he said: "Why would one want to hold anything if on the balance of probabilities prices of most stocks are likely to be cheaper at some point in the reasonably near future?"

These last three posts were actually written (anyone can check them in the archives) by someone who claims, nevertheless:

"The signal for me to exit was the sluggishness of the market in November. For myself I felt from the behaviour of stocks held that it had reached a high, and sold the lot in the confident expectation that the overbought market signals and the spreading subprime reactions would lead to lower prices."

I am aware of just ONE stock that Hilarius bought in he second half of 2007: BHP, which Rudy had talked him into buying (as Hilarius wished NOT to invest), and which Hilarius has mentioned many times. Rudy had made the point to Hilarius that he was throwing away a good opportunity, after the August crash, to make money in he market: a claim, on Rudy's part, that proved correct. All the evidence I can find suggests strongly to me that the only stock Hilarius ever bought as a result was BHP; and that in the second half of October he was completely in cash, "with trepidation". His 5 November note suggests strongly that he was in cash THEN, and I can find nothing in the records that confirms Hilarius's claim that he sold anything of any importance in November, supposedly well ahead of Rudy and me on 14 December. From the evidence I know of, THERE WAS NOTHING OF SUBSTANCE TO SELL.

I think it is worth raising this point as he continues to make out that he performed a wondrous sale in November, at just about the right time, while Rudy, myself, and other members did markedly less well when we sold on 14 December - sluggishly following in his footsteps. This whole series of statements suggests to me that it is part of a deliberate plan to make himself look like the "king of the castle", and to denigrate other people. And I think it is important that readers on this thread be aware of this strategy, for we are sure to see more of it, going by the past. Whenever Rudy, I, or anyone else achieves anything worthwhile, Hilarius always makes out that he saw or did it first - and some people even believe him, as a result of his seemingly plausible assertions.

There may be evidence that I don't know of and overlook: I have only checked Hilarius's own posts, but don't know what else to go by. What COULD I possibly check? On a post like this I either have to believe the posts which suggest that from 16 October - 5 November Hilarius had nothing to sell because he was 100% in cash, OR - quite contrary to this - that in November he sold something worthwhile at just about the best time, which supposedly proves his superiority, as an investor, to Rudy and me. He is not likely to have bought a series of stocks on 1 November, or 6 November, which he then sold at a profit a little later in November, for the market was tumbling down. So if he did make a significant profit and sold something of substance he must have had those stocks BEFORE November, yet (he declares) from 16 October he was 100% in cash. My difficulty is that he cannot have sold something in November that he did not own, or that he claims that he owned something in November which he did not.

Frankly, I don't greatly care whether he performed a miracle in November, though his own evidence suggests that he didn't. What I have engaged in is an interesting post-mortem, on the strength of his statements, and we can all learn from this. But my main point is that the evidence strongly suggests that the supposedly successful November "sale" never occurred, and is likely to be something conjured up to impress Hilarius's readers and to belittle Rudy, myself, and all the other people who sold on 14 December.

I invite Hilarius to put the record straight if I am seriously wrong about it - as I say, I have gone by his own posts. But readers should be able to trust those: so even if he did something miraculous outside his posting, then his readers have still been confused, intentionally or not, by posts which seem to be in marked conflict with each other.

Any such examination of what Rudy and I have done, I would confidently suggest, will prove that our information is consistent, and reliable. At the least, what Hilarius has written in his posts, if one follows him as an investor, is confusing and self-contradictory, even if he did not mean to be.

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1175
Registered: 11-2006

Rating:
Votes: 1


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 03:33 pm:

A SILVER LINING

Amongst a sea of red today there was silver lining in the form of the Health sector. The Financial sector once again was heavily sold off and to a lesser degree the Materials sector.

CSL, a Stock Doctor Star Stock continues to perform well from both an FA and TA perspective amidst a lot of gloom.

ody

Member

Post Number: 2213
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 2


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 03:39 pm:

STARBOARD TACK: HILARIUS'S POSTS

One should mention chapter and verse. This is from the "comparatively recent" post by Hilarius that I mentioned - in fact on 4 January. I quote verbatim:
-----------------------------------------------------------
I have not regretted going to cash, just as you [Ody] have not

The signal for me to exit was the sluggishness of the market in November. For myself I felt from the behaviour of stocks held that it had reached a high, and sold the lot in the confident expectation that the overbought market signals and the spreading subprime reactions would lead to lower prices
------------------------------------------------------------

As I said, it is this statement that clashes markedly, in my view, with his successive statements that he was 100% in cash from 16 October to 5 November, unless there is an explanation which Hilarius has not himself offered to us.

As things stand, I don't think anyone can make head or tail of these posts, and they seem clearly self-contradictory. I would find the matter less important if he did not use this "evidence" to show that somehow Rudy and I are always lagging behind, that he is the truly perceptive investor who does things well ahead of others, etc. That is why I think some FACTS won't hurt.

Note that that is what I am after here: the truth. Not reproaches, various kinds of abuse, etc.

colin_twiggs

Member

Post Number: 3121
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 03:45 pm:

This thread has devolved from a constructive analysis of the local and international market into a personal feud. Perhaps that was the intention of H's post. While he appears to have started this, it does not justify the response.

Please take some time to reflect on where this is headed before making any further posts. Anger clouds our judgment and leads us to behavior that we later regret.

Regards, Colin

Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~ Siddhartha Buddha

carolyn

Member

Post Number: 47
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 04:24 pm:

Rudy,

loved that video, that guy can actually sing, very amusing.

Carolyn

ody

Member

Post Number: 2214
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 3


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 04:40 pm:

COLIN: BACK TO BUSINESS

You are right, of course, that it is very important that we do get back to business.

I can also understand that you are not happy to see others respond to Hilarius's astounding posts, but what would you have them do? We had a situation of complete peace and, as you yourself have pointed out, serious attempts on the part of a multitude of posters - each with their own best inputs - to engage in something like communal analysis and attempts at gaining insight into what is happening, economically and financially, both here and internationally.

The posting was going as well as I ever remember it to have been, though we have actually had several good periods.

Then, suddenly - completely unprovoked and out of the blue - we get a destructive, unfair, provocative and personal attack from Hilarius. Yes, it would be good if we COULD ignore it. The trouble is that so much of what he writes is offensive, superficially plausible yet quite wrong, that your correspondents MUST be given an opportunity to counter what is said - politely and with restraint, I have to admit, but a right of reply nonetheless.

And this is where the trouble lies and why people like Hilarius are always a serious threat to the wellbeing of discussions like these. From a communal discussion about what interests us, readers are to their intense annoyance distracted by ONE person who creates a disruption, and TO WHOM OTHERS WILL INEVITABLY REACT. That is why it is so important to discipline disruptive elements.

Hilarius has now embarked on destructive attacks several times, and he should really be told in no uncertain terms to refrain, or otherwise disappear. At the moment, with the disappearance of a number of other posters who were more interested in "cutting people down to size", as they saw it, than serious discussions, in general things are going well. But the situation is always somewhat tenuous, as there are a number of people about who do NOT really want to talk about shares and economies etc., but prefer to try and quarrel with others. These are the ones we must try to discourage from participation.

starboard_tack

Member

Post Number: 362
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 04:41 pm:

Rudy - CSL

My only concern with CSL is the divergence on TMF. Could we be forming a top here as well?

"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

coyotte

Member

Post Number: 479
Registered: 12-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 08:48 pm:

this thread sounds like it's been taken over by a bunch of schoolgirls .

sorry fellas -- get over it

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

smallworld

Member

Post Number: 811
Registered: 01-2004

Rating:
Votes: 4


Monday, March 03, 2008 - 11:29 pm:

Colin,
I'm extremely disappointed that you have singled out Hilarius for condemnation, Where has Ody and Rdumas show any humility except when slapping each other on the back. I've been on this forum for over 4 years and this has become the most intolerant thread that I have come across.
I'm giving Hilarius' post 5 star for his telling it the way it really is. And I'm giving Deanrosario 1 star to balance out the backslapping that is going on.

Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

mum

Member

Post Number: 223
Registered: 08-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 05:56 am:

I come back to have a quick read and you are all squabbling again over who is is the most right, hmmm not good English, you are squabbling about..... what are they squabbling about

As if you can always be right. Imagine how pompous one would become. Horrible

Stop squabbling at once , immediately : )
I hope we get the Autumn rains this year. Here in Melb my garden is dust, really it is

(Message edited by mum on March 04, 2008)

ody

Member

Post Number: 2215
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 06:52 am:

SMALLWORLD'S LOPSIDED VISION

Smallworld, I am not going into any extensive debate with you about Hilarius supposedly "telling it the way it really is". There is no need to: I think most of the people on this thread - and it is very well-populated - do know "the way it really is".

But I do want to express my disapproval of your attitude to Dean Rosario, who is one of the most hard-working, modest, and civilised posters one could imagine on any thread. You must have some real difficulty interpreting what you read, or have read very selectively, if you reject these words by Dean:

-------------------------------------------------------------
Hilarius I have to express my profound disappointment at your post #3582 in which you go out of your way to denigrate and ridicule 2 forum members who, as far as I can observe, have shown no unkindness towards you.
------------------------------------------------------------

This statement is absolutely accurate. Everything here was going well until Hilarius suddenly launched a completely unprovoked, unexpected, hostile and unreasonable attack on Rudy and me, who had indeed not shown any unkindness to him. I thank Dean deeply for putting matters so correctly, and tackling the actions of someone behaving like a real spoilsport. The post that Hilarius wrote has been deeply unsettling, and certainly not just to Rudy and me: it has thrown the smooth operation of this thread into disarray, and you, with your unfair and inaccurate attack on Dean, are certainly not helping matters.

This thread is NOT an intolerant thread. There are good reasons why it has continued with such strength: with so many contributors, so many readers, and for so long. That would never be possible on a thread that is intolerant: you would get nothing like the breadth of views expressed here, and the posting would not last.

There is, as far as I can see, only ONE thing that people on this thread ARE unwilling to tolerate. It is behaviour like Hilarius's when he is at his worst and who then, instead of posting on the issues we are here to discuss, finds it necessary to engage in completely unwarranted, silly and denigrating attacks on his fellow posters. I do not mean that Hilarius is the only person who has been guilty of this, but yesterday's occasion was certainly one too many.

The people who have NOT been welcome here - and who fortunately are told so by many of those who