Archive through March 04, 2008

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coyotte

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Post Number: 482
Registered: 12-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 10:16 am:

just as i suspected

listed as a FINANCIAL but actually a Resource stock , with no borrowings -- well going by ComSec

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

ody

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Post Number: 2222
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 10:41 am:

COYOTTE: LRF

Stock Doctor dropped the stock as a "star" because it considers it to be only in "marginal" health, owing to a decline in operating cashflow. Even so, you may be on to something. The stock has only low gearing, a PE (today) of 1.22 (VERY low), and - more tellingly perhaps - a PEG of 0.01! As well, it has an excellent record of earnings growth. Its share price has fallen rather - but that may be the market's doing than point at significant weakness in the stock itself. I seem to remember reading about corporate action, but cannot remember the details. Maybe someone is in the process of buying it up, and one could understand how that might happen.

deanrosario

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Post Number: 1360
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 10:42 am:

Figures release 1130 a.m. (Ref: abs.gov.au)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

- The current account DEFICIT, seasonally adjusted, INCREASED $2,997m (18%) to $19,349m.

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION (IIP)

- Australia's net IIP rose $53.3b to a net liability position of $736.8b.

- Net foreign debt was $610.0b, an INCREASE of $24.2b.

- Net foreign equity INCREASED by $29.1b to a liability of $126.9b.

RETAIL TRADE

- there was NO CHANGE in the seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series in January 2008.

- This follows a revised increase of 0.4% in December 2007 and an increase of 0.8% in November 2007.

- States or territories with an increase for January 2008 were Victoria (+1.0%), South Australia (+1.5%) and the Australian Capital Territory (+1.8%).

- The largest decreases occurred in Queensland (-1.2%), the Northern Territory (-1.1%) and Tasmania (-1.0%).

end of ABS data

My very simplistic analysis:

1. The cost of goods and service is greater than the income derived from goods and services

2. We are borrowing more money to pay for the shorfall in (1)

3. Our reliance of foreign debt and equity is increasing.

(Message edited by deanrosario on March 04, 2008)

"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

rdumas

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Post Number: 1179
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 11:02 am:

Hi Dean,

Thanks for that information on the latest figures. Adding to your simplistic analysis I would like to add my own.

With the every increasing value of the A$ it will have a number of inputs to worsening our deficit, namely:

1) decreases cost of imports
2) increases cost of exports
3) reduces the impact of the cost of oil thus temporarily shielding motorists from the worst impacts of increasing oil prices

Aside from the commodities that countries like China would like to have some ownership in (thus increasing foreign investment) there is the double whammy of the A$ making Australia a place to invest.

The 'no change' on retail trade figures will not be something that the RBA will like as it will tell them that they have more work to do. I really pity anyone paying a mortgage or rent in the near future. The stars are aligned against them at present.

mrlunch

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Post Number: 286
Registered: 09-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 11:40 am:

Coyotte - check out GMI as well, it is a resources fund

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1180
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 12:32 pm:

XJO

Hi Dean,

I don't have access to intraday charts. Do your charts indicate strong support around the support level that I have shown on my daily chart (ie, 5365 orange line) ??

starboard_tack

Member

Post Number: 363
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 12:42 pm:

Rudy,

While you are waiting for Dean's answer you might find the Yahoo live intraday chart for XJO useful.

Yahoo live intraday chart for XJO

So far, from CMC's Ausie200, it seems to me that around 5360 is today's support line.

EDIT: fixed link

(Message edited by starboard_tack on March 04, 2008)

(Message edited by robin on March 05, 2008)

"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1362
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 12:52 pm:

Hi Rudy

I've posted 2 charts with the 5365 level drawn.

1. today's 5 tick chart for the XJO

2. the 2 hour XJO chart

The tick chart certainly shows 5365 to be today's support level and, whilst we don't have much data since we are in recently uncharted (literally & metaphorically!) territory, the 2 hour chart also shows this level could be significant since should it hold/be broken today since the level coincides:

(a) the "intraday swing high" that occurred prior to that plummet on the afternoon of 22 Jan; and

(b) the "intraday swing low" that occurred the following morning.

PS: Don't forget the RBA's cash rate for March is released at 1430 today so expect a bit of action in the last 90 minutes of trading!

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1181
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 12:56 pm:

Hi Starboard_Tack and Dean,

Thanks for your responses guys.....much appreciated. It will be interesting to see if the RBA decision makes any difference unless it moves it 0.5% rather than the highly anticipated 0.25%.

ody

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Post Number: 2223
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 01:44 pm:

EXCELLENT CHARTING, THANKS

To give a different (but corroborative) indication of just how much we have fallen:

Suppose that on 17 January, when the market looked bad enough, I had indeed bought myself 1000 shares in each of the top (i.e. biggest) 30 companies. I would have spent $824,100. Just a short time ago, this "portfolio" was actually (just) in the black. Viewed today, at the time of writing, it has lost $64,090.

Admittedly, the portfolio is not one holding, at the start, equal AMOUNTS in each stock. In effect, the stocks that cost the most (such as RIO and CSL) are badly "overweight". But those are not necessarily bad companies, either - and lo and behold the result. I shudder at the thought of having made such a purchase. And yet on 17 January the market was SUBSTANTIALLY lower than on 14 December, the day that a number of us went out at practically the same time - the last of the "good" days, as it turns out.

ody

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Post Number: 2224
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 01:46 pm:

POSTSCRIPT ...

Since the post above, the market has turned up pretty significantly. But ... the loss would still be big.

ody

Member

Post Number: 2225
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 01:56 pm:

AHUM ...

And just a little later the index fell again, quite vertically, too. I can't make sense of this. Would ANY of the sellers have been surprised at the 0.25% announcement? Surely not. Or are some people so thick that such news does come as a surprise to them?

I feel stumped. Any explanations, anyone, for this yo-yo effect? Could it be that the rate rise TOGETHER WITH the news Dean so helpfully reported this morning has created a new wave of pessimism, all of a sudden, as the facts sank in?

deanrosario

Member

Post Number: 1364
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 02:06 pm:

Hey Ody in this type of market things happen so quickly.

Since your postscript, the market has, once again, turned ugly (and, who knows, by the time I finish typing it may turn up again!!).

As you can see from the daily XJO futures chart, the futures just broke the last daily low price that occurred prior to the "Jan 22 meltdown".

eric

Member

Post Number: 185
Registered: 09-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 04, 2008 - 03:54 pm:

Rudy, correct me if I am wrong, but was not this thread started by Hilarius in the first place? I am not sure.

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

eric

Member