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     mrlunch
Member
Username: mrlunch
Post Number: 287
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 08, 2008 - 04:11 pm: | 
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Dug - tax loss selling. My guess is that any tax loss selling is unlikely to have as much of an impact as selling due to other reasons.
However it is reasonable to think a small pick up in selling could occur just because people want to clear out the closet and start fresh - i.e. face the music and dump their losers. However most shares are losers now so it will be less pronounced. Last year for example it was only a handful (relatively speaking) that were losers, and the effect of tax loss selling on those shares was more obvious.
I'm not sure there would be any way you could really play the tax loss selling. Better off playing more measurable games I guess.
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mrlunch
Member
Username: mrlunch
Post Number: 288
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 08, 2008 - 04:14 pm: |
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Short Selling.
This is supposed to be a guide to how much shorting is going on in ASX shares:
http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt
Now I believe these numbers would grossly underestimate the true numbers. Does anyone know anything about this? Anyone have access to more advanced numbers?
Could be an interesting indicator if "real" data could be found. Apparently they are now in the process of trying to make it more transparent. Could actually be transparent by 2015 that means.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 190
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 08, 2008 - 04:29 pm: |
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After reading the Fin Review today, I got to wondering .....
Say a smiling hedge fund manager comes up to me (as trustee of my SMSF) and offers me say 0.5% per week to borrow my shares. I can safely have them returned to me in a month or two and make a guaranteed return. Great!!
To state the bleeding obvious, I wouldn't do it, but it seems that the major brokers and even super funds are.
Presumably the funds and brokers are pocketing a fee to schmooze the deal. The short sellers have one objective - to drive the price down as much as possible, hopefully triggering plenty of stop loss selling and margin calls along the way. Maybe if they've done a really good hatchet job the company goes under, so they don't even have to buy back to cover.
The big losers are people in retail funds, unit trusts etc. My question is, if this is really happening, as the AFR say it is, how do they expect to get away with it?
Sway
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2963
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 08, 2008 - 05:01 pm: |
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Mr Lunch,
My Tax Loss Sell phobia is in shares I held thru the Down and one I recently bought into.Like your CNM,I'm DYE and CFU respectively.
In the case of CFU it's 60 cents now from a high of 150 ish some 9 months ago.It recently had encouraging news so I bought in.Trouble is I'm getting the worry/panics that recovery in price may get stymied/swamped by Tax Losers.
I'm thus extrapolating this Tax Loss season phenomena as a Downer on any/all Share Recovery scenarios this quarter.
Last year I was "worried" by JULY sell offs by those taking Profits in JULY and thus having 18 months to pay the CGT.That happened in my observation but I agree that this year has had so many loss triggers in most shares that this season may be more subdued ie the Losses have been taken already.
Hope so especially in the Recovery Runners.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2964
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 08, 2008 - 06:23 pm: |
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On Shorting The New Techniques-
Forum member pse in virtually his first post made mention of a Boutique Broker offering Shorts in virtually every Listed Share.At least the ones that had Any turnover whatsoever.
He named the Broker but it's since been censored under the Advertising Rule and pse was then set-up to run a Gauntlet of Abuse by the Forum's Old Goat We are the Experts,Adore us Brigade.
Anyway,there are Shorting Opportunities way beyond the "Official " List.Seems from pse that one can only do shorts in a Day[morning "lend" Close Complete] with this "Boutique" doing out of Official List shares but one wonders whether there may be a Deeper End Brokerage in Shorts happening?
I haven't read the weekend Fin Review but such things as Penny Mangling don't usually come up in the mainstream media til there's a disaster or court case etc.
Maybe pse,who I see reads this thread,can throw more light without mentioning Broker names?
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 2314
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 12:12 am: |
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It seems I have been away from IC for so long that I can comprehend all of dug's post.
I shall take a bex and have a good lie shortly!
ODY, wherever you are, enjoy.
I am presently around 40% cash, which is the most I can recall since I began investing.
I have set some price entry targets for several equities, but last time (the January dip)when I was getting close, I wound down my bids a bit more and more again, and therefore got none.
I can't see much value in the market at present, and am not going to be too presumptuous about what might be worth getting into.
I think we will see the allords dip below 4500, so for me there is no issue waiting 6 to 12 months if that's what it takes.
In the meantime I'll continue to read about commodities a little more as when the US eventually rebounds, we might have a good few years of healthy investing.
No doubt an occasional dabble will present itself, so I will see if my resolve dissolves!
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1201
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 07:58 am: |
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Hi Ken,
I've been away from my computer since yesterday morning so only just saw your post.
I can't comment about P/E values getting down to 7 because I don't have records that go back that far however I totally agree with your last sentence: I wonder if one could also say "no good value in a bear market"?
One always has to remember that P/E values regardless of which type (ie, historical, forecast, AWPE) only represent a comparison between similar businesses. If I am looking at buying a business in the 'real world' and the earnings of one is $200,000/year with a price of $1,000,000 and then I see another business of exactly the same type that gives me the same earnings but only costs $900,000 then obviously I will be initially attracted to the one that costs less. In that way I will have used the P/E ratio to help me sort out a short list of possible contenders which require further analysis.
In the secondary market (ie, the share market) during more normal times (ie, when fear and greed are at their minimum) P/E ratios between similar types of companies do give a guide to the relative values of these types of companies and one can get some indication of what the entire market is doing in terms of valuation by studying its P/E ratio.
During periods of extreme fear and greed however the P/E ratios and in fact many ratios become almost worthless because they now become an indicator of market sentiment rather than anything else. During these times I tend to rely almost entirely on TA to help me measure the amount of fear there is in the market and look for signs of those fears subsiding (ie, formation of a solid support level) before I start really taking an interest in the FA.
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 491
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 09:08 am: |
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Interesting situation with BHP :
1: the H&S (orange) pattern is targeting the mid $20s.
2: the current Tri looks as if it's about to break down .
but if it breaks to the UP it should be a whopper -- $47 target .
3:Edit Note: if a Asc Tri is a Continuation pattern then there is a bit of a problem here -- a continuation of what ! -- Lower Lows and Lower Highs -- A DOWN TREND a confirmation of the H&S
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(Message edited by coyotte on March 09, 2008)
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3609
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 01:50 pm: |
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Coyotte
Another great chart ... and some excellent questions
Shareholders need to pray their shares are not devalued in higher bids for RIO
Isn't TA supposed to tell us everything we need to know?
I agree the price could move either way
Looking at the price behaviour relative to the 30 Week EMA why would the latest dip below be any different to past dips which were shrugged off?
If I knew the answer I could be rich, but I don't feel that TA gives me the answer in this case
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3610
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 02:13 pm: |
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Finance Sector
Nearly three years gains wiped out in a few weeks
Would the boom in finance stocks and property have been better avoided, given that it appears to have been built on a house of cards?
The question now is are bank profits dwindling as fast as their share prices?
If not who will begin a value based recovery, institutions, traders or mums and dads?
If bank profits are fading faster than the shares will we all be ruined?
Is a society healthy which is not based on savings?
What is reasonable debt?
Is all debt a curse?
Thank goodness the government economists and our banking chiefs are being paid internationally competitive salaries to prevent wealth destruction from happening to us
Thank goodness we are not paying for high level incompetence in the finance industry
Obviously it is all the fault of the customers
Where, when and how will it all end?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3611
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 02:15 pm: |
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Oops
I forgot out about dividends ... they should keep the blue rinse set off the bread lines
Or will they?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3612
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 02:17 pm: |
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What would people do that the RBA and Mr Bernanke are not doing ?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 1202
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 03:55 pm: |
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Boom/Bust Cycles
For those who wish to get a bit of a handle on monetary policy and the importance of recessions as a tool for ridding an economy of excesses. The following link is Lecture 4 of Boyer lectures given by the Ian Macfarlane on the recession of 1990 and its legacy.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/boyerlectures/stories/2006/1769927.htm
The period that Ian talks about has some similarities to today in as much as there was a boom/bust on rising asset prices financed by increased borrowing which had to come to an end. Actually our current period sounds a lot worse in many ways.
An introductory comment on the web page was:
Finance excess saw boom turn to bust, and Australia experience its third recession in a quarter of a century. Then-treasurer Paul Keating would infamously observe it was 'the recession we had to have.' Perhaps it was—or was it caused by overly tight monetary policy?
Alternatively, did the macroeconomic policy of the time lay the foundations for the 15 years of prosperity and relative stability that was to come?
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3613
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 09, 2008 - 04:35 pm: |
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