Archive through May 08, 2008

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ody

Member

Post Number: 2436
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Monday, May 05, 2008 - 12:28 pm:

COULD BE RIGHT ...

Despite my own inclinations to the contrary, I feel that actually Kohler (below) may well be right. We do by now have some new evidence, in more than one way, of things heading the right way. Though the turnaround for Q3 does seem optimistic, as he too seems to feel.

From Business Spectator:

A toast to central banks

Warren Buffett is right: the Federal Reserve has done a wonderful job in handling the credit crisis and was right to step in on Bear Stearns.

In fact, when the history books are written about this crisis, all of the world’s central banks are going to come out of it looking very good indeed. The Fed, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB have so far prevented a calamity.

On Friday they were still at it: the Fed, along with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, said they would increase the amount of cash they were providing to banks and were now, for the first time, prepared to accept as collateral bonds backed by car loans and credit cards.

Most downturns are caused by central banks raising rates to control inflation.

But central banks had nothing to do with starting this one. It began when the world’s private sector bankers all got up one morning in August, looked in the mirror, and saw the horrible mess they had created, as if for the first time, and stopped lending to each other.

The central banks stepped in and provided the cash liquidity needed to keep the wheels of commerce turning, and they're still doing it. The Fed also cut interest rates earlier and far more aggressively than in previous cycles.

As a result we now have a paradox.

The credit markets are still clogged up and most experts are talking about at least 12 months of pain from sub-prime mortgage resets and the refusal of lenders to extend maturities beyond a few months. Yet the equities bear market looks to be over.

In essence we have seen the removal of the maturity mismatch that banks normally hold on their balance sheets – borrowing short and lending long, using capital to balance the risk. Now they will only lend short, matching their funding maturities, and even then that funding is largely coming from central banks.

Companies, by their nature, have to invest long. Normally they can borrow long as well, but they are being forced to turn to equity for long maturity capital, as seen recently with Wesfarmers.

Despite this, on superficial measures the US economy does not appear to be in recession and the sharemarket is resuming its appetite for risk.

US March quarter GDP growth was 0.6 per cent, and the US S&P 500 has rallied 11 per cent from its lows (the All Ordinaries is up 11.5 per cent). Wall Street is at a four month high.

If the sharemarket remains stable and doesn’t retest the January lows, it was the world’s shortest ever bear market – four months and 25 per cent – coming off, we are still being told, the world’s worst ever credit crunch – as bad as the Great Depression.

The situation may not last, but we can thank central bankers for this. The Fed probably caused the credit bubble in the first place with too much liquidity after 9/11, but all central banks have been standing between Armageddon and us for six months.

Whether the US bear market is over depends on the depth of the US recession and the earnings retrenchment there.

The consensus of Wall Street analysts is that June quarter S&P 500 earnings will decline 4.1 per cent on top of a 14 per cent decline in the March quarter, but that the 3rd quarter will see a 16.3 per cent recovery. For calendar year 2008, earnings are expected to rise 11.2 per cent.

With the recession still unfolding, this is a courageous consensus and the risks are all to the downside of it.

As for Australia, we’ve got China and the long commodities march.

dug

Member

Post Number: 3094
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 0


Monday, May 05, 2008 - 01:17 pm:

I'm finding it all a bit funny.Peculiar nix Ha Ha.
What have we got?
Is it really a case of "It's Different this Time"?

All of us brought up by Depression 1930's parents have been inculcated/indoctrinated with Debt is Bad,Polonius jive,that one about income $1 Expenses 99cents and you are living sweet.All that stuff.
Now we had a Credit Crisis Monumental but the Piper didn't get paid.

No we thru our fabulous Central Banks and their "Progressive" thinking turned it all round and we're back to business as usual.
You have to admit that's "Different",right?

So we have for example all the Gold Bugs trapped.Proved wrong,left in their mainly downtrending Juniors not doing the Rocket in response to the Flight to Gold.

Also we have poor rudy.
Trying to invest/trade conservatively in the Market with a Goal of safe,"superior" returns got from his Sale of an Engineering Works.What do you reckon,rudy is dealing with into the Market?Half a Million would be conservative.Yet he has to put up with a lot of jump bunnies,crowing around on maybe only 50grand play money.Jumped Up Twerps that go chasing say 10% in a week and think they're bleeding Glorious when they get it.

IF rudy wants to only make 10% in a month and can't see an opportunity to get that pretty easily?well,surely that's his business.
As I said before,and rudy used to quote,the Market isn't going to be Closed,it'll be there whenever you choose personally to have a Go.
Rudy ain't desperate for money.He ain't desperate to weekly rack up a dollar score points like some of you who seem to require constant pandering to ya self esteem by being in d'Market and lauding around about this weeks score.

So now we have not only lost Holy Cow as a Commentator,we got rudy taking d'Hump.
I look forward to some of you clowns raising the number of posts around here.

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

kate

Member

Post Number: 878
Registered: 04-2005

Rating:
Votes: 2


Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 09:32 am:

Once again we have complete intolerance of others on the forum.

There is not one person on the forum who trades exactly the same way, whether it be indicators or time frame. What seems to be forgotten is that trading is an individual pursuit yet time after time people expect everybody else to do the same as them.

Individuals want others to do the same as them as it justifies their actions. This is a basic human trait which requires a degree of insight to be overcome and is a hinderance to the trader. It is the individual who sticks to their trading plan regardless of criticism and harassment who should be commended as they will be the ones to succeed long term.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 2318
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 1


Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 12:38 pm:

A kerfuffle - good lord!
And the markets have been so kind of late.

Any group worker will know that while "norming" is good - bonding, happiness, etc - the real gains are made after "storming".
It's called
PERFORMING.

(And I'm not talking about clowns.)

Storming off needs to be counterbalanced with storming back.

ody

Member

Post Number: 2437
Registered: 10-2006

Rating:
Votes: 2


Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 03:38 pm:

KATE: EXCELLENT POST

Like others, I greatly appreciate your post. Spot on! Very much so, with both points - the need for (1) tolerance, and for (2) grasping that for good results over the years one needs to stick to one's own trading plan.

REDEROB: "CRISIS"

You are for ever to be thanked for having set up this forum, and if anything on it is going wrong that is certainly not your fault. At present it is obviously going through something of a crisis, which is to my mind due to the fact that there have been some very unreasonable attacks on people who have for long been very active on this post and sought to contribute to it in as useful a way as they could.

Speaking from my own angle, one reaches the stage where it becomes more attractive to communicate directly with people that one can reach positive results with than to have "one's head bitten off" here by some people who despite all the evidence of integrity I feel I have demonstrated tell one they don't believe one's investment history (indeed, see one as involved in "self-delusion"!!), who accuse one of merely "paying lip service" to the idea of tolerance of other investment approaches, etc. I have felt both of these accusations to be deeply offensive, as they are grossly false and I in fact see both honesty and tolerance as matters of major importance in my life.

As for the latter: there is a difference between one's accepting the views of others as good for them, and embracing them for oneself. Some people just don't seem to understand that you may be tolerant of someone else's investment method while yet you continue to stick to your own: the idea appears to be that you must change your own method in order to show yourself "really" tolerant! So long as this distinction is not understood we shall continue to be in trouble.

Life is too short to subject oneself to what is in essence uncontrolled raving, or having to refute it, so, like Rudy, I too am happy not to take part in this kind of squabbling. It saves me a lot of time, too, which I very much need at the moment. But unless the tone here changes drastically I cannot in any case see much of a role for myself on this thread.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 2319
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 10:09 pm:

ody
It's a shame that willing posters are "attacked".
Equally, posters need a tough hide given the nonsense that pervades every forum I have visited.

It does seem that personal email can be a more fruitful form of staying in touch, given that you and many others that I infrequently contact live so far away.

resillent1

Member

Post Number: 452
Registered: 10-2006

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 06, 2008 - 10:51 pm:

I guess I’m the one regarded as the jumped up twerp who is completely intolerant of others, causing Rudy and Ody to leave the thread.

The truth is that I totally support the proposition of everybody following what suits them, but that is obviously not how my posts come across.

I thought Sway was under the same pressure in relation to his views that I have felt when posting views on this thread. There was no malice meant in my post, when I expressed the opinion that it was difficult to express alternative views on this thread. Yes it was a criticism but I meant it to be constructive.

Obviously Rudy didn’t like my post, so I commented on his reply. Correcting what I believed was mis-implied to me, and trying to clarify my issue. It was not my intention, but I made things worse.

Rudy lays his departure at my feet.

Ody takes my remark that something “looks” like lip service as an accusation and lays his departure at my feet. Incidentally Ody, my position on your investment results was around the point that I believed it would be good practice to have exceptional performance backed by data to avoid anybody fraudulently claiming results. I was of the understanding that we sorted this out privately.

I am at a loss as to why my posts come across so different from my intentions; I hope that is not the case with this one also.

You can be sure that I’m sufficiently downtrodden with how I post, that I will never participate in a forum again. You are free to resume your thread without the threat of anymore complete intolerance or uncontrolled raving from me.

Apologies

dug

Member

Post Number: 3102
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 07, 2008 - 09:43 am:

Frankly I lose all respect for THEY who pick up sticks and storm off into the sunset to set up private email/newsletter clubs.To me it reeks of the Cult of Personality.
For starters,you only met each other by posting on a Forum[yeah rudy/ody you met at the now defunct Round Table but that was A Cult of Millionaires itself]
Anyway by leaving this Forum to go off,you're doing Vanity Press publishing.What contra point of view are you going to get there in your private email club?NaDA!!
No,you'll gather a bunch of sycophants,rudy and ody will do their gentlemen routine of acknowledging each other thought of it first etc blah.Pure readers of your newsletter will chime in with how Helpful you are to them Pat pat suck suck.

In 6 months you'll be bored.Maybe even in 6 days!!Why?because you'll do all this "work" and will have no real idea of how it's going over.You'll be Isolated.Have no point of Conflict,either within yourself let alone against Outside Minds.

Look,we've had several WalkOuts here over the Years.Captain Chuckles even set up his own web site that the cognescenti had to get "d'Secret Password" to enter.Of course it was given only to those that saw Charlie as God's Gift to Traders.I think it lasted about a month.

That's another point about going Private.You are running a risk of giving Advice.You are not under a Legal Umbrella of just participating in a Forum,you're giving Guidance with only some Bush Lawyer Disclaimer that ASIC could crack all over you from a single sentence acted on by some Desperate.
You are aware that when a "follower" takes in info and then Loses,it's not their fault No they go d'Messager.

So Forums are THE Avenue.Live2Air "Insights".I know there's an Incredible amount of Bumpf and rubbish in them.You start to think you're throwing pearls at swine,hey?
but the trick is to read Forums to get some ideas on Psychology of Market Participants.In the Immediate Now.Not reading some learned tome that takes years to write and publish.So long later that the Dynamic has moved on.Forums are the Only method I know to collate info on participants happening NOW!!

I reckon your problems here,rudy are not only based on TimeFrame but the Amount of money you invest and your Goals of Achievement with that money.
Ody has set out before his portfolio set up when he's in.Obviously he's dealing in multi Million$.
To those here,most here,Multi Millions are an Ambition not an Actuality.Their ambition is to Make It NOT Manage it once they have achieved.

Anyhow,I'm rabbiting on.You of course have every right to "Do ya own Thing" but I just wanted to put down some reasons for my Disappointment in ya Decision to abandon being Staunch.

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

philr

Member

Post Number: 404
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 07, 2008 - 10:57 am:

Dug

I agree with your 1st statement. I think people have to have a pretty tough hide to post on public forums. You will get criticism and praise from various posters you just have to take that in your stride. If you take the praise you should also be prepared to wear the criticism.

You also have the strength to defend your position on occasions too. Then leave it at that.

Some degree of conflict and disagreement can be good it brings out issues that are not raised if everyone is always being polite and too afraid to say anything that possibly may offend someone.

I do not think you should have to accept straight out abuse and that should be up to the forum owners or moderators to review.

As to starting up private email groups. I cannot really see in any problem in it if people want to focus on particular areas and to discuss in a group then that's entirely up to them. And I say good luck to them.

But just because they are in a private email group they should not think there will not be some degree of conflict there too.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

dug

Member

Post Number: 3105
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 07, 2008 - 11:42 am:

Rederob,
You came here years ago and had as your "Mission" the promotion of Mining Companies specifically those who were Un Hedged.This was totally against Common Wisdom as espoused by our mate Alan "Koker" Kohler and his Ilk that were running the Establishment Point of View most everywhere else that Hedged New Producers were Best,they did the right thing by Ensuring the Price to be received was "guaranteed".
This Common Newspaper,Broker,Commentator "Wisdom" was Crock in the New Materials Market Dynamiced by China Now and you,r2r got us on this Forum all ready to rob the Establishment View of any validity any TRUTH by Modern Up2Date Market Analysis.

Would you have been able to get such GLORY,do d'Job Well Done if you'd flounced off to some Private Email Club?

I don't think so.

I think it's pathetic to use this site to gather Devotees and then do d'Bung Off into private clubs.
I'm against it,think it's disrespectful to Colin and his team that brought you together FREE so I suppose rudy you should take me off your Mailing List.
I don't quite care to receive the latest stock doctor star anyway.Once they hit that the cream is often gone anyway and you just do safe'n'secure ploying.Yesterday's Goers given some Seal of Approval?
that's Has Beens Territory.

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

eblode

Member

Post Number: 766
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 07, 2008 - 12:29 pm:

Dug,
We still have you! When we can translate your insights they are always sharp and quite precise. Also you have an elephants memory.

Hope you grabbed a swag of SMX when I was moaning and groaning about their price of 3.63 when they were declaring 60% growth in earnings and were a SD Star stock. Anyway in frustration I bought another swag at 3.95 when my prayers were answered and they started on their northbound journey. They are now around $4.30 so it proves there is power in prayer.

Eugenio

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 1388
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 07, 2008 - 12:33 pm:

Hi Dug,

You may have lost respect for me but I will never lose respect for you because in spite of your rough way of putting things I think that you actually have a heart of gold and a truck load of trading wisdom. I take from your post a request for me to resume posting on this thread.

I would like to deal with the points that you raise in your last post.

Firstly I don't think that you give enough credit to the people that are interested in private group discussions. I have been involved in many of them both on market discussions and other subjects and there is much to be learned from participation in them. One of the great advantages of a private forum is that usually people are able to discuss things without letting egos and face saving get in the way of their discussions. As you are well aware there are many dynamics operating in a public forum which in many ways is highly detrimental to the sharing of ideas.

You have learnt the art of abusing people that can match the ways and actually stun the likes of people like Charlie Chuckles who in fact has a lot of excellent views but unfortunately he prefers to abuse and belittle people who have views that don't match his own. I don't even know if I want to learn those skills as they are 180 degrees out of phase with what I am comfortable with. Unfortunately in public forums and on this forum in particular respectful conduct is considered as a complete joke. To give credit to some one for an interesting view is considered as an act of some one who is socially barren. That is how far the lowering of conduct has developed on this website and I would strongly encourage Colin to do something about it with his web site rules. I have seen a number of good threads where conduct is more rigidly controlled and thereby creating a much better environment for the exchange of ideas.

I totally agree with you that getting opposing views is excellent because it allows you to be challenged in your own thinking. I have never been concerned about that. Ody and I went to great lengths to acknowledge that others operating in different time frames and with different risk profiles can make a wonderful living from playing the market. I don't believe that we have been afforded the same courtesy. If you went through the reams of posts on both our parts I doubt that you would find a single post which criticised an investment strategy that differed from ours purely on the basis of it being different.

I understand your comment about the amount of money that I have to invest and probably more so the amounts that Ody invests. I have mentioned on many occasions that the amount that I have in fact is not large and it is for that reason that I place a very strong emphasis on investing it safely (ie, minimise draw downs). It is true that both Ody and I have always targeted that audience that were in a similar position to us in that they were working with their life savings in DIY superannuation funds. We have never been secretive about that and have gone to great lengths to continuously re-enforce that fact.

From day one on this Daily Bread thread it has been one in which fundamental analysis played a central role in discussions. I think that you would agree that we have also spent quite a bit of time on TA and in fact have always highlighted the fact that for a medium to long term investor the combination of both skills gives better results in terms of safe investing than either FA or TA in isolation.

The fact that many that have joined us on this thread are actually day/short term traders has caused many of the disagreements that have occurred on this thread. Having spent years trading futures and short term trading I am well aware that TA is the only thing that you need to be successful. Working in differing time frames requires different skills and tools. Quite often this 'clash of different worlds' occurs on this thread. I know that I speak on Ody's behalf as well as mine when I say that we love the thought of those who aren't trying to preserve and build their retirement funds also find the thread interesting. It makes it a much richer thread.

Of all of the points that you raise in your post Duggie, the one that concerns me most is the one about being perceived to be giving advice. I am extremely conscious about this one and it is the one that gives me the greatest concern. I have done every thing in my power to make sure that people who ask for an opinion do realise that I cannot legally give them advice. So far it has worked out in their favour but I fully understand that it is only a matter of time when some one takes an opinion as advice and that opinion turns out to be wrong and loses them money.

So you found the 'hot button' as they say in the sales trade Duggie. It is for that reason that I will once again come back to post on the Daily Bread thread.

I have a message for Resillent1 as well. Yes mate, you probably were the final straw which made me decide to move away from IC. It is possible for me to put up with people who I don't respect but when one's actions are mis-interpreted by someone who I do respect then I find it a burden too hard to deal with. I understand the pain that you have just gone through and the reasons for you too wanting to find a place of peace and tranquility. I can only say that I do understand the limitations of the written word especially when fired up by the passion of the subject at hand which inevitably leads to misunderstandings. I hope that you too will give it another chance.

I will make every attempt to heed Ken's good advice and that is to keep the posts to technical stuff and not to try to defend my view with too much passion.

Dug, thanks for your concerns .......ya big softie.